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Road trip

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Everything posted by Road trip

  1. I'm a little shocked to see he was never selected for the All Star game while with the Twins, but Mike Marshall was an extraordinary reliever for them in the late 70's. His '79 numbers are unthinkable today: 90 games, 142 innings, 32 saves, 10 wins, 2.65 ERA. Finished 5th in Cy Young and 11th in the MVP. Likely need a 6th reliever anyway...although maybe not if Marshall is there to suck up the innings.
  2. Day 2 is almost always a crap shot if you look at history. Not many players make it to the majors after the first few rounds. Take a look at the 2015 draft. Most players taken in 2015 would have contributed at the major league level by now if they were going to....especially the college guys. What do we see? Round 5 - One player with more than 1 WAR - Ryan Helsley Round 6 - Two players with more than 1 WAR - Steven Duggar and David Fletcher Round 7 - Two players with more than 1 WAR - Dylan Moore and Jake Cronenworth (I'll even throw in Jovani Moran, who is at .5 and probably makes it over 1 eventually) Round 8 - One player, Chris Paddack...hopefully he makes it back from surgery. Round 9 - Nobody over 1 WAR, although LaMont Wade is getting close. Round 10 - Nobody over 1 WAR. Contrast that to round 1 of 2015. 19 of the players selected have accumulated more than 1 WAR. Many are already stars (Bregman, Tucker, Swanson, Buehler). Unfortunately the Twins drafted Tyler Jay. The lesson: Get the first couple of picks right, and after that you are just praying to hit a lottery number.
  3. Player A Age 22 season: OPS+ 124 Age 23 season: OPS+ 113 Age 24 season: OPS+ 105 Age 25 season: OPS+ 152 Player B Age 22 season: OPS+ 95 Age 23 season: OPS+ 134 Age 24 season: OPS+ 152 Age 25 season: OPS+ 107 Which hitter do you want? Can't tell much difference, can you? One is Luis Arraez. One is a Twins Hall of Fame infielder. Now, player B truly became elite from his age 27 to 32 seasons. Let's hope Arraez can make a similar jump.
  4. Oh, yeah, I totally understand that Morgan > Puckett. The quotes were my attempt at sarcasm....should have found an emoji I guess. If Rodriguez had 1/4 of the career of either Morgan or Puckett we will call it a win..
  5. I was thinking the next Kirby Puckett, but I'll "settle" for a Joe Morgan. Actually, lots of great power hitters weren't all that tall, headlined by Aaron, Mays, and Mantle....all under 6 ft.
  6. Controversial opinion: Fastpitch softball is actually the superior bat and ball game. Faster pace, more strategy, and you can ride one or two pitchers for an entire weekend of games. It's a shame that the amateur men's game has largely died, but some of us remember it well.
  7. Stunning to see Garver and Polanco with positive OPS+ numbers of 110 and 109. The eye test says they have been pretty bad. Yet they rate as above average hitters across MLB in 2021. Scoring is down so badly across the league (except when the Twins bullpen is pitching).
  8. I dunno, I thoroughly enjoyed watching, and I don't normally watch the series religiously if it has two teams I don't care about (which would be this year). However I'm staying home more, just like most people, and I watched most of it as an alternative to more hours of Neflix. Game 4 was as exciting a World Series game as has ever been played, imho. Multiple lead changes, and then the ending was surreal. The Kevin Cash decision in Game 6 was immediately controversial. Even if it had worked out most people would have opposed it. Like you, I'm kind of glad it didn't work out, even though I was sort of, kind of pulling for the Rays. Cash's decision prevented the slim possibility of witnessing another Jack Morris-like performance. I felt a little cheated. The Dodgers were obviously very happy to win. I can't say the immediate celebration looked much different than any other year. They'll be proud of their rings. For some players it will be their only ring. And even if a regular season had been played, I'd pretty confidently say that the Dodgers probably had the best roster in 2020. Is there an asterisk? I suppose so. But sports (and life) are full of asterisks. Enjoy the moment while you can, if you can.
  9. Darvish had an extraordinarily bad year in 2018, but otherwise he's been mostly quite good. A career ERA+ of 125 is not easily replicated. Maeda was among the top 3-5 starting pitchers in the AL this year. He'll get Cy Young votes, and would be a contender in many years but of course this year Bieber was otherworldly. You are tough to satisfy I guess. None of the above are Hall of Famers, but every GM would be happy with the outcome if they signed an international prospect like Yamamoto and he then performed with Tanaka/Maeda/Darvish-like results.
  10. Quite a few more success stories than Nomo and Dice-K. Maeda, Darvish, and Tanaka got to MLB relatively young and have done very well. Iwakuma, Saito, and Uehara had nice careers as well, but didn't get to MLB until they were in their 30s so their careers were relatively short here.
  11. I think it starts with retooling the coaching staff. A new hitting coach is a must. I'd love to get Rowson back but that probably won't/can't happen. In terms of the roster, I don't think anyone has mentioned yet that Garver may be redundant at this point. It seems that Jeffers is already better defensively, he's significantly younger, and it appears that his bat will be solid. Multiple teams will be looking for a catcher and Garver has a cheap contract and is one year removed from an outstanding season. Somebody might overpay for Garver now. Most catchers age badly, and he will be 30 next year. Wait another year (if he has a bad one) and Garver may have no trade value left. I've always loved Garver and wished he had played more when he was younger. But it isn't personal...it's business.
  12. Actually, I believe the Twins have to stay *behind* Oakland. The Astros will almost certainly slot in as the 6 seed (worst record among 2nd place finishers). The #3 seed (worst record among division winners) will play the 6-seeded Astros. If the season ended today (pasted from ESPN): AMERICAN LEAGUE No. 1 Rays* vs. No. 8 Blue Jays No. 2 Athletics* vs. No. 7 Indians* No. 3 Twins* vs. No. 6 Astros No. 4 White Sox* vs. No. 5 Yankees*
  13. It is also entirely possible that the Twins could draw the Astros if they win the division. It would all depend on whether they end up as the 2 seed or 3 seed. They are ever so slightly behind Oakland for the 2 spot at the moment.
  14. Dobnak sent down? Seriously? I know he has had a couple of rough starts in a row, but this is a surprise to me. Fifteen days ago he was considered our 2nd most reliable starter.
  15. Oh, sure, I'll play. Joe "Emory Board" Niekro Doug Mientkwzrzchzwskch (I refuse to look up the proper spelling, but everyone knows who I mean and remembers his glove work) Jose Morales, pinch-hitter extraordinaire. Chip Hale, pinch-hitter extraordinaire, part 2. Butch Wynegar Mike Cubbage Shannon Stewart...saved a season...what a great trade that turned out to be. Bobby Kielty Don Baylor Christian Guzman. Never became as good as we hoped he would be, but boy it was fun to watch him run when he hit one into the gap.
  16. So, its been a few years since I went to a Spring Training game. I'll be in the area again this year. Looks like tickets have gotten more scarce, as I was looking at the game vs St Louis on March 9 and there is nothing left online (Twins site) except standing room or outfield grass. Back in the day, I used to just get tickets from people hawking them outside the stadium, usually for not much over list price, or even less. Do people still sell them this way or have the Stubhubs of the world destroyed the "scalper-ish" on site availability market?
  17. Yup. In addition to Schott, McCourt was forced out in 2012 and Steinbrenner was banned from the league for several years in the 1990s. Plenty of precedent.
  18. Ahem...the '91 Twins set the bar rather high. They added the following: Jack Morris Chili Davis Mike Pagliarulo Steve Bedrosian Carl Willis We all know how that turned out.
  19. "His original contract gave him the right to wear #18. That’s currently worn by Silver Slugger catcher Mitch Garver." Garver has worn three different numbers in three seasons with the Twins (43, 23, and 18). Gave up 43 for Addison Reed in 2018. Gave up 23 for Nelson Cruz last year. So {shrugs}, it seems like Garver may not care much what number he wears.
  20. I agree he is a likely candidate to fall off a cliff. Take a look at his "similar batters through age 30" on Baseball Reference. Nine of the ten stopped hitting by age 32 (The exception being Posada). Catchers as a rule age very badly, even many of the great ones.
  21. Tagging on to this, Kirby Pucket had little power in his early 20's. He was a pure slap hitter. At 22: 3 HRs in Rookie ball At 23: 9 HRs in single A At 24: 0 HRs in Minnesota, and 1 at AAA At 25: 4 HRs in Minnesota And then he got his man muscles, changed his swing a bit, and the rest is history. Arraez probably never hits 20 HRs, but he will get stronger as he gets older.
  22. My guess is that adding three pitchers new to the organization is quite rare. However two new pitchers isn't that uncommon. As recently as winter 2018 the Twins traded for Odorizzi and signed Lance Lynn. Now neither performed particularly well in 2018, but both are doing well now, albeit Lynn is now pitching for Texas. They also had Anibal Sanchez signed and kicked the tires during March 2018. They cut him loose (resulting in much applause on this forum), and he has performed pretty well in the NL ever since. I think it is very likely that the Twins are planning on at least one of Smeltzer, Graterol, Dobnak, and Thorpe to get a starting spot next year. Hopefully it is just one. I'd rather they not perform extreme dumpster diving, but getting two guys that have the potential to perform like the names above (2019 versions) is a realistic target. And I'd sign Odorizzi to a long term deal as step 1.
  23. Love having Dozier for 2018. Pretty certain I'd like having him for 2019, and probably for 2020. Take a look at the top Baseball Ref comps for Dozier though, and what they have done after their early 30's. It isn't pretty. Dan Uggla Kelly Johnson Damion Easley Rickie Weeks Neil Walker Bret Boone Jose Valentin With the exception of Jeff Kent, power hitting second basemen don't age well at all. Father Time is tough to beat. If Dozier is willing to take a 3 year deal (and he probably won't be) then sure, sign him. I think after 2021 you can't expect him to be better than replacement level on his offense, and his defense is unlikely to be adequate.
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