Road trip

I love his bat, his attitude, his hustle...and he's just fun to watch. I have doubts that the significant defensive improvement is sustainable, or even real. My heart wants to sign Arraez, but my brain isn't really on board unless the price is right and the contract length is more like 2 years instead of 3. But who know, maybe the price will be right? He's a hard player to put a value on. If the Phillies pass, well, the Yankees and Boston both may need help at 2b and will put in bids. But maybe they don't value him either?? He might be one of those guys that will get progressively cheaper as the off season progresses. That sort of happened last year when he finally signed with SF.

But... if 1 WAR equals approximately 8 million of market value (that seems to be the sabermetric consensus), then Jeffers in 2026 was worth approximately 8 * 2.8 BWAR = 22.4 million. So, the QO is right in range for his 2026 production. You could certainly argue that Jeffers isn't necessarily likely to match last year's production, but I don't know it is a massive overpay. This year's free agent market may be an odd one, with a labor stoppage likely, but $15MM AAV would be a bargain for Jeffers if he can continue to match his 2026 production, especially given the fact that there are no other good catchers on the market. FWIW, MLBTR projects Jeffers to earn 4 years/ 75 mil. That seems high to me, but it is another data point.

I came here to post the same. MLBTR did a nice job overall with very extensive write ups. It's book-length... 126 pages if you want to print. Maybe their estimates are a bit high? (For reference, Luis Arraez predicted for 3 years/48 mil - A year ago he only got 1 year/12 M). Jeffers was the #9 ranked free agent, with mostly pitchers ahead of him. That does seem about right to me...

You don't have to hope for DeBarge.... you can hope for a Jose Berrios, a compensation pick in 2012. If you want to really fantasize about comp picks.... think Aaron Judge.

None are surprises. If there is a surprise, it is that there weren't more names cleared from the 40-man. I wish them all well, but it isn't inconceivable that they are each near the end of their MLB careers (although, if he can regain his health, a lefty like Banda will get at least a AAA contract somewhere).

Maybe next year after Lackey has had time at AA, possibly a bit of time at AAA, and the MLB labor situation is resolved. In the unlikely event that Lackey does a "Wynegar" next year and makes it to the majors and performs well and it becomes too late to extend him cheap... well, that's a really good problem to have.

I think this is a serious mis-read by Bowden, which would be nothing new. 1. Jeffers is easily the best catcher on the free agent market. He should still be in his prime for another 3 or so years. 2. A 34-year-old, seriously in decline JT Realmuto got $15M/Year for 3 years just last year. The idea that a much younger Jeffers will only get a shorter commitment is laughable. 3. The Yankees need a catcher. So do the Rangers, the White Sox, and several other teams. Heck, it might be easier to count the teams that wouldn't like to upgrade catcher. Money will be spent. Jeffers will have multiple offers. I'd like the Twins to keep him, but he won't be in the bargain bin.

Better this year? Yes, agreed, compared to a couple of years ago. But he's still nowhere near what he once was. When drafted his speed was outstanding, by far his strongest graded attribute. It never came back, and likely never will. He might grade as a 50 or 55 for speed now. Scouting Grades (Baseball America / MLB pre-draft): Hit: 55 Power: 45 (with projection for above-average or plus raw power) Run: 70 (Double-plus speed) Arm: 50–55 Field: 50–55 Overall: 55

It's a bit early for a post mortem, and difficult for outsiders such as us to assess blame. It may have been coaching. It may have been an inability to learn from coaching. Surely part of it will be attributed to simple bad luck... Lewis's accumulated injuries have set him back almost every year. We have become accustomed to surgeons performing what would have been miracles a generation ago, but success isn't guaranteed even today. The two ACL surgeries Lewis underwent along with an assortment of strained quads, hamstrings, and obliques have largely ruined his legs, and it is tough to hit if your legs aren't good. Just look what has happened to Ohtani this year due to a bum left knee.

“I can’t say that my enjoyment in the role is the sole reason for how long we intend to be owners, but I can tell you that we’re long-term oriented,” Pohlad said. “We’ve got big goals and a lot of work to do, and it’s going to take some time. We are in this for the long haul.” One thing I have learned from my years on earth: When extremely wealthy individuals say "A", it is frequently a smokescreen because they are actually planning for "B". This is exactly the kind of thing an owner would say to drive up the price and extract an extra 100 million from the sale of an asset.

I think I'd actually do Culpepper ahead of either of these two. Keaschal *might* be a better hitter, but Culpepper clearly has a better glove that will play somewhere, even if his bat doesn't develop fully. Nothing against Bradley...just that injuries are such a high risk for every pitcher.

I'm not as old as Chief (who may be lurking), but I can remember when bread was 50 cents, and a Twins ticket was $5 for a good box seats at the Met. But those days are gone. (And a baseball ticket that cost $5 in the mid 1970s would be $30+ today adjusted for inflation) Teams are going to charge what the market will bear... always, and regardless of player salaries. That's just capitalism. Big time college football and basketball tickets have long been equally expensive, and until recently those players weren't even being paid. I don't even think the owners care particularly if the stadium is full. They just want to maximize revenue, and if that means the good seats go for hundreds of dollars per game instead of dozens of dollars, that's what they will charge, even if a few remain unsold. You can argue it's a scam, but it is more a matter of everyone but the wealthy being priced out. The 1% doesn't worry much about paying $500 or more for a seat... it is pocket change for them, and the franchise owners are more than happy to empty their pockets.

1B glove? Sure. With the Twins history of injuries it is entirely possible that several of Clemens, Keaschall, Lewis, and any other potential first basemen will spend significant time on the IL. But Rodon is strictly a "break glass in case of emergency" plan for 1B. He likely won't hit with enough power to be an asset there, and is likely to be a minor defensive liability. The same, unfortunately, is true of corner outfield spots. I'm still somewhat stunned that he was advertised as a potential CF when acquired because he sure seems slow, even for a corner outfielder.

Well, there was that lefty Johan... and Viola... and Everyday Eddie for those who enjoyed watching a crisis develop and then dissipate. Local boy Perkins had some good years. Liriano was absolutely brilliant for a very short time. But sure... I'll put Connor in the Twins top 20 LHP at this point :)

These are all valid questions, but they are tactical 2027 questions, not strategic long term questions. I'm afraid that you could fix or find solutions to several of them (Buxton, Lewis, Ryan, etc), but win 75-80 games again next year, and the year after that, and the year after that. Rather, I'd prefer ownership and front office ponder the following: 1. What is the next realistic window of opportunity? I would suggest that it is very unlikely the Twins will be ready to contend seriously in 2027. Others may feel differently. Answering this question determines who you sign over the winter, who you trade, and how you plan for the next trade deadline. 2. Should defense be taught differently in the minors? Should players spend time learning the fundamentals of a single position they can "stick" at in the majors, or are they going to continue to value and teach versatility, moving guys all over the diamond after arriving in MLB? 3. Will players continue to be taught to pull the ball to generate maximum power, or should they be taught towards a "hit to all fields" philosophy to generate more balls in play and higher batting averages? 4. Does baserunning matter? Are stolen bases now undervalued (both acquiring and preventing) by the franchise relative to the rest of the league? Should that change? 5. How should young pitchers be handled to best generate high performance and minimize injury? (I know, this is a moving target for all of MLB, but the Twins results indicate that they really struggle with this). 6. Is platooning really enough of a competitive advantage to justify the roster space required? 7. Depending on the answer to #1, will the Twins commit to the next generation core of Jenkins, Culpepper, Taj, and whatever other under the age of 27 players they think can be the next batch to build around? Will they commit to living with the struggles young players inevitably have for a year or two? Or are they going to sign more 30+ year-olds hoping to catch "bounce back" seasons, and then build line-ups around them?

Bummer. Arraez missed out on his 4th batting title by a single percentage point. Arraez .310 Gabriel Moreno .311 Arraez had 125 more plate appearances, but Moreno had enough to qualify.

Good for him. At this rate, Jackson's MLB pension will be fully vested when he hits the 10 year mark around 2033. Of course, to do that he will have to actually play in another 4 dozen or so games for the Twins.. Good work if you can get it..

Fair. "Laughing all the way to the bank" was a common phrase, at least for my generation, essentially meaning "profiting without succeeding". Perhaps it no longer translates. I certainly wish him (and your friend) the best. The dream dies at different points for almost all athletes, but I suppose the closer you get the harder it dies.

Never said he was... simply noted he was paid quite well for a venture that didn't work out. I'm sure he is disappointed, but so are thousands of other minor leaguers who didn't make it to MLB. Unlike the vast majority of them, Cavaco is a multi-millionaire.

This. X 1000. In the last few years the Brewers minor league system has graduated Churio, Turang, Mitchell, Misiorowski, and Henderson among others. That's about 25 WAR this year just for those five guys, all of whom are or may soon be All Stars.

Even with them back, I wouldn't necessarily be surprised if Taj is our best starter next year. I expect him to be better next year. Ryan just wasn't good lately, so I don't know what to expect of him next year. I love Pablo as a player, but coming back from a UCL repair.. well, we hope for the best but I wouldn't bet money on him immediately returning to past form.

Well, quite safe to say that Walter Johnson will never get surpassed for #1.

Yup. I laughed a bit at the article, and then felt a bit bad for laughing at Cavaco's failure, and then realized that Cavaco was likely laughing all the way to the bank.. A $4 million signing bonus should set him up well for whatever path he chooses going forward.

It almost seems that way sometimes, doesn't it? The last plus defensive player produced by the Twins minor league system was.... maybe Buxton? (It certainly wasn't Larnach, Lee, Jeffers, Garver, Wallner, Martin, Arraez, Julien, Kiriloff, Miranda, Lewis, Keaschall, or the legendary Tortuga). I might be forgetting someone, but that is a damning list. I saw they let long-time scout Derron Johnson go yesterday. I don't know if this has been a scouting problem, or more likely, a minor-league development/philosophy problem.

If the Twins are going to turn Mendez into a 1B man, they perhaps ought to play him there in the minors? He's only played there 2 games. I wonder if this is only speculation? I get that Mendez is somewhat blocked by the plethora of corner outfielders the Twins already have on the 40-man, but if they are going to move him to 1B he should have gotten a lot more in-game action there this year. Beyond that minor quibble, this is a nice report.