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Road trip

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Everything posted by Road trip

  1. Road trip
    One utility infielder/outfielder for the bench is a good and necessary thing. Two could be useful. Three is an overabundance. The Twins have at different times rostered, um... 8? (Lee, Keaschall, Kreidler, Lewis, Clemons, Martin, Gray, and I'll even throw in Caratini due to all the time at 1B). Way too many. Perhaps two of them are above average fielders.
  2. Road trip
    It's so hard to identify the right guys, young or old. You've rightly pointed to some success stories for vets (although I would debate the re-signing of Farmer). In recent years there have also been some very unfortunate signings of certified formerly good veteran players. Dylan Bundy, Chris Archer, Andrelton Simmons, Joey Gallo, Christian Vazquez on a multi-year, and more failed bullpen guys than I can remember. Every team has some successes and some failures of this type. The problem for the Twins is that they seem to fall for the sunk cost fallacy with the vets. Because they have invested money, they are gonna make the Manuel Margots of the world work, dammit, even when it becomes obvious to casual observers that the skills have degraded. Money is tight for the Twins, and I wonder if the front office wouldn't be more willing to move on from underperforming vets if they hadn't had to beg the ownership for the funds to sign some of these guys who don't work out?
  3. Road trip
    Gomez doesn't necessarily have to regress. I present as exhibit A, Eddie Guardado and his special closing voodoo: 2002: ERA 2.93 vs FIP 3.46 2003: 2.89 vs 3.23 2004: 2.78 vs 4.35 2005: 2.72 vs 3.73 2006: 3.89 vs 5.69 He may have induced a few hear failures, but Eddie somehow got it done year after year. Sample sizes are so small with closers that I'm not entirely confident rate stats can be applied in the same way that we do for starters. I haven't done the research, but it wouldn't surprise me if there are other closers out there with a similar track record to Everyday Eddie.
  4. Road trip
    Look, I know EmRod is hurt too much, and strikes out too much, but I wonder if this is causing many to overlook his many strengths. Elite power, speed, good defense, and a good eye that leads to many walks. He's still a Top100 prospect in MLB. He's ranked #31 by Keith Law, #52 in MLB pipeline, and in the 50s by Baseball Prospectus. Yes, Jenkins is rated higher and probably has a higher floor, but it would be unprecedented to let a Top100 prospect like EmRod go for nothing without giving him a trial run, be it this year or next April.
  5. Road trip
    The first called will be: "Whoever isn't hurt when the Twins need an outfielder". I'm kidding. Mostly. I hope.
  6. Road trip
    OPS is up 129 points in one game...which is possible because it was so low. Happy for him.
  7. Road trip
    Bullpen is reasonably well-rested. I think the leash could be pretty short for Zebby here.
  8. Road trip
    Performance? Emma - .899 OPS Ross - .856 Mendez - .820 GG - .725 And Emma is by far the fastest and a better outfielder than GG or Mendez. Honestly those last two shouldn't even be in the discussion for 2026. They are barely handling AAA. Jenkins is a special case. Bring him when deemed ready, be that today or in 2027.
  9. Road trip
    If healthy, and if hitting in AAA, I think he's a good candidate for the September call up. Beyond occasional starts he'd be a valuable pinch runner/late inning defender off the bench. Not mentioned here, but his minor league splits show EmRod is the rare lefty hitter who handles left handed pitching very well. Twins certainly could use someone who may not need to be platooned.
  10. Road trip
    The power is obvious, yes. Due to multiple injuries the athleticism is largely a thing of the past, unfortunately. Average speed, average arm, range rated as downright poor at Baseball Savant, although that may be due to learning new positions. He's unfortunately pretty much a 1-tool player now, although if you are going to have a tool the power is a good one to have. I'm rooting for him, and his bat is badly needed, but I'll be stunned if he ever becomes a dominant player or "star". Solid everyday player seems likely to be his career path... and that too has value.
  11. Road trip
    More red than Larnach, but missing some important red. His sweet spot % is very low and barrel rate is low. He's getting jammed or hitting it off the end of the bat a lot. Roden may still have potential, but they've tried this year and it hasn't worked. It doesn't mean he can't get another shot in 2027 but I'm ready to move on for the next six weeks. A career OPS+ of 53 doesn't play for a shortstop, much less a corner outfielder. Be it Jenkins, Wallner, or someone picked up from the waiver wire the Twins just have to get better production from the corner outfield spots.
  12. Road trip
    If offense is needed, the good news is that Wallner has been on fire at AAA. The bad news is that he doesn't really have a spot to play with the Twins unless you want to downgrade the defense or sit Bell occasionally in the DH spot. Still might be worth taking a chance... Roden just isn't hitting. If/when the Twins call Wallner up this board will be a mix of rejoicing for some, and disdain/despair for his many detractors.
  13. Road trip
    I don't know, of course, but I would speculate that Culpepper being 2 years older and having quite a bit more experience *might* be a factor. For whatever reason he was deemed "ready", and for some reason Jenkins is not. I certainly agree that nobody critical is blocking Jenkins, be it Roden, Martin, or somebody else.
  14. Road trip
    Plus, perhaps the coaches just don't think Jenkins is quite ready yet. By no means is he dominating AAA...
  15. Road trip
    Unfortunately in this case, revocable waivers are no longer an option... they were eliminated a few years ago. See: https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-outright-waivers-rules-claims-explained
  16. Road trip
    Kreidler in CF also an option against lefties. That would allow them to play an all right handed outfield and sit Larnach (.574 OPS split), improving the defense as well as the offense.
  17. Road trip
    I'd wager we will see Buxton play a game sooner than Ryan. Just hope at least one of them is fit before September.
  18. Road trip
    That's a good analysis. I generally have resided in the "demoralized" camp, given the array of factors stacked against the Twins. There are so many structural disadvantages facing the Twins that it is hard to envision a world where they will ever be among the favorites. Stars can align though, in a variety of ways. See the Royals in 2014-15. Flawed team, but young, built on speed and a bullpen, and the stars aligned. Or the Rangers in 2023. They had subpar starting pitching (by contender standards) and yet got hot and won it all anyway. It is really unlikely that the stars will align for the Twins this year. Or next year. Really the only structural thing they have going for them is that the rest of the AL happens to be pretty bad right now compared to normal standards. If you are going to pin hope on something, pin your hope on this. The year is ripe for upsets in the AL pennant chase.
  19. Road trip
    Easily the best stadium of it's era, and virtually all of the others are gone. I recall reading that the Royals want a new park, which is kind of a shame. Not enough luxury boxes, of course.
  20. Road trip
    Of course Keaschall looks lost. 20 games played in the outfield in his entire life prior to this year (counting minors and college... perhaps he played there a bit in high school, but I kinda doubt it). Maybe add in a few more in spring training this year...those stats weren't handy. Sizemore is likely a good coach, but he isn't a miracle worker. It's unlikely there is anybody in MLB getting regular outfield playing time that has less experience than Keaschall. He *should* get better after playing about a thousand innings in center field. Time will tell.
  21. Road trip
    sry, double post
  22. Road trip
    Having a Goliath has little to do with financial disparity. In the NFL it was the Steelers in the 70s, then the Cowboys in the 90s, then the Patriots during Belichek's era, now the Chiefs and/or Eagles. There is always a Goliath to hate, even in a league where 100% of the revenues are shared. I'm not much of a NFL fan, but have absolutely no doubt that their business model is far superior. It is part of the reason the NFL is hugely popular nation-wide, as every city believes they have a realistic chance at a Super Bowl in the coming decade. The NBA learned, and moved towards a cap, floor, and greater revenue sharing this century. They still have Goliaths as well. Baseball could learn, but probably won't.
  23. Road trip
    This is the crux of the problem. The Twins have a better roster than they did a week ago. However Cleveland had a very productive deadline. Adding Foster Griffin, a solid #2 starter, along with Nathaniel Lowe as a clear upgrade at 1B really improves them. Chicago also made moves, although I'm a little less impressed with what they brought in, and still trying to wrap my brain around the overall level of improvement they have shown after losing 100+ games for multiple years in a row. I'm not certain it was "Go big or go home". At least it wasn't "Hold my beer...". The Twins didn't pull off a blockbuster, but in my mind they also didn't do something profoundly stupid (see: Ramos for Capps).
  24. Road trip
    That's possible I suppose. But if that's the case the Yankees have to be kicking themselves right now, because they ended the day without addressing their biggest need on the same day the Red Sox got Rutschman. "Calling the bluff" just leaves them with no answer behind the plate. It was pretty clear the Twins were looking to buy, not sell this year. Knowing that, the Yankees should have upped the ante if they expected to pry Jeffers away. Not a good deadline for NY. My Yankee fan friends are pissed. 3rd place in the East is suddenly a very real possibility for them.
  25. Road trip
    RE: Jackson... wonder if they could stash him on the 10-day IL with a nagging injury? Every catcher has something bugging them by this time of year. Surely his legs feel bilaterally weak or something? 😆 Then just leave him there until needed, if that day comes. Teams play these IL games with pitchers all the time, why not a catcher?
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