Road trip

Larnach had a good two month stretch. On the year he's been worth 1.1 BWAR, and that number has been dropping since July. He hits for average without typical corner outfield power, is a poor fielder, and is one of the slowest outfielders in MLB. If the Twins management doesn't want to seek out an improvement for a LF that consistently puts up about 1 WAR/year, we will never be contenders.

I'd be quite surprised if Abel doesn't start the year in AAA. He's coming back from surgery, and has only limited MLB experience anyway. He may or may not be effective out of the gate. That doesn't mean Abel won't be in the Twins rotation by May, replacing whichever of the original 5 has suffered the semi-inevitable injury requiring an IL stint.

I guess 3 is a nice round number, but you forgot Wallner, as apparently has the Twins FO. I saw a headline from the Trib today, and an earlier article in the Pioneer Press, that Wallner does not expect to ever be called up to the Twins again. I can't blame him as he tore up AAA all summer and never got a call back. There is a little gnashing of teeth over Larnach's situation, and I get it, but Larnach somehow got 2100 plate appearances to put up an OPS+ of 105, while Wallner essentially was abandoned after only 1100 plate appearances at an OPS+ of 119. Wallner never even had enough time to get to arbitration.. Both are platoon guys, both slow on the bases, both should be DH's, both former 1st rounders. To me, it still seems the Twins invested playing time in the wrong slow platoon lefty.

I was wrong about Kody Clemens. I figured him for another mediocre, not gonna hit enough, no upside, waiver wire pickup. Throw in a little "nepo baby" on top (I couldn't stand his dad, while acknowledging Roger's talent). However, Kody has exceeded expectations. He's earned his spot. His role is a bit undefined, but he will be an adequate or better bat, and can field multiple spots. You don't build around him, but he should remain part of the Twins plans for the next couple of years

You are replying to the wrong person. I haven't been in the thread on Larnach until now.. I am certainly on the "move on from Larnach" train though.

That is all correct. It was a pretty weak draft. I can't fault the Twins for taking him. But regardless of when drafted, generating 4 BWAR in 6 seasons is an outfielder that you have to move on from when he gets expensive. 1 WAR/year outfielders grow on trees. Larnach is basically Kepler's offense, minus HR power, without Kepler's good defense and base running.

Unfortunately, the current FO will sign a few seasoned vets that will be the statistical equivalents of Margot, Bride, Caratini, and Gray.

Depth, sure, but quality depth is another thing. Right now there is a chasm between Twins starters and the top of the league rotations. Despite many injuries, the Dodgers get a "quality start" 52% of the time. They are trailed by the Phillies, Mariners, Red Sox, Royals (!), and Yankees in the 40-50% range. The Twins are below league average at 32%. Now, maybe Ryan will be back and pitches well all year. Maybe Pablo makes a full recovery and is immediately good. Maybe Taj and Zebby and Prielepp and pick whomever you want all improve. But that is a whole lot of "maybes". Some will perform well, others will regress or get hurt, and the Twins will spend some time sorting through the alternatives. I could see the Twins being in the top 1/3 of the league for starting pitching. To reach top 5 almost everything has to break right, and they still won't have a Skubal-type ace unless somebody seriously outperforms expectations. It's a mediocre team with a mediocre roster. Average-ish players all over the lineup and pitching staff. Hence, as the author points out, a lot of 1 to 2 WAR players.

Neutral isn't a bad description for the week, and for the year. The Twins have been pretty much what most of us thought they were in March. They project to win 75 games, give or take a few, as expected. There were some pleasant surprises this year (Clemens, Lee, Taj, Zebby, Gomez) along with some real disappointments (Wallner, Royce, SWR, Caratini) and of course the usual assortment of guys who got hurt, especially young pitchers. The Twins seemed to play harder, but there were still plenty of mental errors and fielding miscues. I think they have been playing slightly better under Shelton. The FO, yes, still in neutral, but they don't get a passing grade.

It's great he is improving, but yeah, I can't overlook the stolen bases. Teams are running far more in today's game. Framing skills are nice now, but perhaps not relevant in a few years when MLB goes full robo-ump. Offensively, perhaps he is a Luis Arraez-type with a bit more gap power and speed? Only 19 strikeouts in AA is impressive.

I tend to agree. This is the payday window for Jeffers. I suspect the Yankees or someone else will offer a large multi-year deal. And this is why you make the QO, just to harvest the draft pick. And if Jeffers surprises the Twins and takes the one year QO? That's ok. The 2027 season may or may not start on time anyway. Worst case is Jeffers provides a 1-year bridge to the next Twins catcher. Or half a year, because if he is performing decently he can be traded in July 2027 if the Twins are not in contention. Twins would then get more assets for an investment of approximately 12 million. By July next year they will have a far better idea of how ready/not ready Lackey, Diaw, Tait, etc may be.

I think it is unlikely we see Lackey next year. 5 to 10% chance if I'm forced to give odds. But, as others have noted, Wynegar was only 20. Joe Mauer was only 21, which is what Lackey will be next year. Times are a little different. In Wynegar's era top players rarely went to college if they were relatively high picks. That was somewhat less true in Mauer's era. Both of them spent their late teens in the minors, while Lackey was in college. Now, perhaps Georgia Tech baseball is the equivalent of low A-ball talent with aluminum bats...maybe. But that is still a good-sized gap. Maybe Lackey dominates AA and AAA. Maybe the Twins decide Diaw is an outfielder only. Maybe the Twins are in a pennant race, and need catching help in August due to injury or poor performance by others, and bring Lackey up? That's a whole lot of maybes of varying likelihood that have to break right to see Lackey in 2027. It isn't impossible, but the stars have to align.

Yup. Gotta develop players. By comparison, here are some that Cleveland developed in the same time period: Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor, Carlos Santana, Steven Kwan, Travis Bazzana, Trevor Bauer (ok, ick), Shane Bieber, and Gavin Williams. That's a whole lotta All Star appearances. Ramirez is likely going to HOF, and Lindor may have a shot.

Wow, that was depressing. As a whole, the top prospects have really under-performed expectations. At least there was a little success with some 2nd-tier prospects (Dozier, Jeffers, Rosario, Arraez, Duran, etc). Of course, almost all of those guys are gone now too.

Innings limit, huh. Optimistically, if he gets five more starts, he might get to about 130 innings pitched this year. Grumpy old guy comment: Blyleven, et al, used to hit that before the All Star Break. More modern grumpy comment: Cleveland's top 3 starters all project to hit 180-190 innings this year, and all are 27 or younger.

I'm kind of here. Not mentioned yet: The minor league system/philosophy. Position players arrive at MLB unprepared for the tasks they should have mastered earlier. Outfielders throw to the wrong base or miss cut off men. Players are suddenly thrust into defensive positions they rarely played in the minors. The can't execute a freaking bunt in the bottom of the 10th because they were never asked to bunt in a game in the minors (Ross... last night, 2 bunts in over 2000 minor league plate appearances). Starting pitchers run out of gas at 80 pitches because that's all they ever throw in the minors. And finally, quite trying to turn every player into a pull/power hitter.

I love the optimism, but check out this group from what is ancient history for many on the board. You won't find many infields that generate 20 WAR: Rk Player Age Pos WAR G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ rOBA Rbat+ TB GIDP HBP SH SF IBB Pos Awards 1 John Roseboro* 36 C 0.4 115 406 361 33 95 12 0 3 32 5 5 39 44 .263 .333 .321 .654 81 .308 76 116 6 0 3 3 12 *2/H AS 2 Rich Reese* 27 1B 3.1 132 451 419 52 135 24 4 16 69 1 5 23 57 .322 .362 .513 .875 139 .394 141 215 6 5 1 3 3 *3H/7 MVP-29 3 Rod Carew* 23 2B 5.5 123 504 458 79 152 30 4 8 56 19 8 37 72 .332 .386 .467 .853 134 .411 148 214 7 3 6 0 0 *4/H AS,MVP-10 4 Leo Cárdenas 30 SS 5.1 160 665 578 67 162 24 4 10 70 5 6 66 96 .280 .353 .388 .741 104 .349 106 224 19 4 8 9 12 *6 MVP-12 5 Harmon Killebrew 33 3B 6.2 162 709 555 106 153 20 2 49 140 8 2 145 84 .276 .427 .584 1.011 177 .454 180 324 16 5 0 4 20 53 Nobody threatened to win a Gold Glove, but they sure could hit. The '69 Twins also had Cesar Tovar as a utility man, and he put up another 4.6 WAR playing about a third of his games in the infield.

Not effective early in the game, when trading outs for a single run may not be wise, as you diminish the possibility of a multi-run inning. Very effective in the bottom of the 9th or extra innings where a single run wins the game.

Explain to me how a marginal prospect like Ross could have spent years in the minors and only be called on to bunt twice in his career. Now when it's needed he can't do it. Failure of coaching and prepping.

No.... but if he gets to 5 he would be in some pretty rare air. Looks like almost everyone with 4 titles is in the HOF, but times have changed (Bill Madlock is the only exception who isn't). Above 4 titles and it is really only elite first ballot guys (Carew, Boggs, Williams, Musial, etc). By every other metric Arraez has a ways to go, but he does have a skill set that may allow him to play a long time if his legs stay healthy. Maybe they could build a unicorn annex for players like Arraez. He's a great story, and the baseball loves a great story.

If he stays in Philly it probably won't be his last. Great hitters park. Heck, may not be his last regardless of where he goes..

Is that actually possible (buyout avoidance)? If it were possible, why wouldn't every MLB team that didn't intend to exercise the option simply release the player in late September?

I'll take total revenue sharing for $100, Alex. Local TV, tickets, merch, beer sales, everything. Cap and Floor. The actuaries say I don't have that many seasons left to enjoy, but if the system finances can be changed to give all teams a 1/30 chance of a World Series every year instead of a 1/250 chance (Vegas) the Twins had under the current system I'd gladly sacrifice the entirety of next season to get it. There is no realistic hope the Twins will win another World Series in my lifetime under the current system.

Deserves based on past performance, or expected future performance? Bell has had an unfathomably great year hitting with RISP (.353/.400/.632) in 150 plate appearances. Hence, he drove in many runs. He performed very well under pressure this year. But those rates are way above his career marks. That's HOF-level hitting. Does anyone realistically expect him to repeat those rates? His career rates are only .277/.372/.485. Solid but not spectacular. I suspect that is likely what we might expect for him going forward. Is that worth $10 million from a DH?

Yup, it worked very well for late-career Torii Hunter. He had some great years in RF.