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TwinsAce

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Everything posted by TwinsAce

  1. TwinsAce
    Agreed - and Gordon doesn't have that great of an arm (especially compared to Gallo), so not that crazy to see Gallo go get it instead.
  2. TwinsAce
    A few other snips below that are similar to the previous post. Not enough barrel% or Solid %, topped % too high, and too many GBs or PUs for a few players. (Buxton and Gallo stick out again with the Pop up and Under %.) Chase contact % is super high for some of these struggling players too in addition to some of the 1st Pitch swing percentages confirming what we see far too often.
  3. TwinsAce
    When I look at the Savant profile for the Twins, a few things stick out. Miranda, Gordon, and Solano (and Vazquez) have struggled quite a bit. Their stats seem to confirm the struggle for the most part. Gordon does have slightly higher increase in expected stats, but his launch angle stinks. Gallo has too high of a launch angle, but otherwise I think he is hitting pretty close to what we can expect. Kepler seems to be doing slightly better than normal surprisingly...curious to see how that goes the rest of the year. Correa is at 15.5 launch angle, which seems slightly higher compared to his ideal number. In looking at his profile more, it confirms he hasn't been hitting fastballs and off-speed as much as normal and when he does, it is going opposite field or a pop-up. I probably trust Correa more to correct his issues the rest of the year. Seems like every game he has a great hard hit ball, but then follows it up with a pop up. Miranda, Gordon, Solano, and Vazquez seem to be of more concern. Of those, only Vazquez provides the defense to offset the hitting struggles. Hopefully the Twins can fix Miranda and Gordon otherwise I'd look for replacements by the summer. (Lewis anyone?)
  4. TwinsAce
    The housing and transportation changes are also pretty big. Glad it also has an additional statement about spouses and children as well. Quote from the Athletic article below. https://theathletic.com/4360686/2023/03/29/minor-league-bargaining-cba-mlbpa/
  5. TwinsAce
    I believe this is written backwards. I understood the tweet as impacting players who are signed at 19 years old or older will now be under team control for 6 years going forward instead of 7. So it won't impact too many international free agents, but will impact college players and older high school students. Here is the quote from the Athletic article.
  6. TwinsAce
    Good to know that we already have complaints of having too deep of a bench and too deep of a rotation. Can you imagine a scenario instead where Celestino was our planned backup CF and Gordon was our only main INF and OF backup with the hopes that Martin would be up soon? Taylor, Farmer, and Solano all raise the floor substantially. Same for Lopez in the rotation. I'd much rather have Lopez pushing out a stud prospect instead of having Archer or Bundy in the rotation. I'm also excited knowing that Ober, SWR, Varland, etc. are all ready to fill in WHEN injuries happen. A lot better than relying on 10 year minor league veterans too as our second wave of reinforcements.
  7. TwinsAce
    This is what I was going to say. The Twins expected Archer to add more innings after the first month or two, but it never came. Maeda should be handled similarly, with the hope for better results. Maeda will start, if only as an opener or 2-5 inning type guy early on. I think his elbow was also a problem long before the surgery, so I anticipate this results will be solid. The Twins need to have a contingency plan. Both for the shorter starts (Ober piggybacking?) and the potential risk for an Archer type season if he does struggle.
  8. TwinsAce
    Helps that Arraez was a gold glove finalists with at least a few metrics that pointed he was decent to good there. Miranda seems like the perfect Gio replacement with a slightly lower floor and arguably a slightly higher ceiling.
  9. TwinsAce
    I'm all for a big contract for Correa and going over $300 million. (After all, not my money. ? ) I think one thing to keep in mind though is that the Cubs would probably have to overpay for Correa, which is probably reflected in Matthew's original 9 year deal of $333 million. Hard to know though. I expect the Twins to have some sort of opt out feature though in the next few years and to push hard for an early decision. Kylo turned 1 in November. Carlos, who has mentioned how important his family is in choosing his contract, should probably aim to move to a new market by the time Kylo is going into school, so roughly 4 years from now. ?‍♂️
  10. TwinsAce
    I don't think Gallo makes sense unless somehow cheaper than 8 million. That said, one could argue that they would prefer a strikeout with more power potential over a grounder to 2nd base. Gallo also might have a higher ceiling than Kepler at this point. I think the argument for Gallo is also under the assumption trading Kepler brings back a player of need...backup SS, RH OF, backup C, RP... (Which remains to be seen.) Gallo would provide better defense than our current non-Kepler corner OF players. But like you said, this seems like treading water in many ways.
  11. TwinsAce
    I guess I'm in the minority, but I for one would love to see Trevor May back on the Twins next year. Isn't any pitcher a health risk? I guess I don't see May as a crazy health risk and it sure seems like he'd be better than Fulmer if not Alcala.
  12. TwinsAce
    I don't think they were an upgrade in 2022 and might not even be in 2023, especially in Sean's case. 86 and 75 ERA+ respectively with 114 and 158 innings. Bundy had a 79 ERA+ (and 140 innings). Archer and Winder were 85 and 82 ERA+. Please FO, aim higher. Or be realllyyyy confident Clevinger is fully back. (Sure - Mike is an upgrade if he goes back to his pre surgery numbers of roughly 140 ERA+. His SO/9, FIP, etc aren't kind to him though.)
  13. TwinsAce
    Larnach showed pretty good defense in LF last year. He might not be able to cover a ton of ground, but he isn't slow. And his arm is accurate and he seems to make good decisions.
  14. TwinsAce
    Having too many top prospects at SS as well as a star player at shortstop can be a good problem. It can turn into the solution for many things, whether someone going to 3B and moving from good to elite defense or going to the outfield or 2nd. And not to mention, top prospects at SS do in fact bring back top trade targets, including top pitchers. IMO - there is a lot more risk in signing a 28 year old pitcher to a 6 year contract vs. a 28 year old star SS to a 8-10 year contract. I love the fact that Correa has taken to helping the players around him, like Miranda, even though he might not be here next year.
  15. TwinsAce
    Agreed - I am hoping they go for it. Maybe the albatross contract was in reference to Donaldson?
  16. TwinsAce
    That's it - I think the Twins offseason is a failure if we don't sign Correa, Judge, and Rodon. Anything less than this is a complete system breakdown and failure. (Any top bullpen names too?) Judge can play RF, provide an upgrade over Garlick, and provide an upgrade over Celestino too by being Buxton's main CF backup. And I can't wait for Judge to be the first player to steal a RF homerun at Target Field when he reaches over the flowerboxes to steal one back. WS championship or bust!
  17. TwinsAce
    Forgot it was Friday and didn't notice the author at first...lol But even after figuring that out, it still seemed pretty accurate.
  18. TwinsAce
    Yes - this, plus what @jmlease1 said. And it would have been even worse if they hadn't made the trades. Sometimes a FO does everything fans are begging for and it doesn't work out. Still have 2 of the 3 for next year too.
  19. TwinsAce
    Agreed with your post. If for some reason not Correa, I think I need Rodon instead. But I'd love Correa to be back so we could have a long term left side of the infield of Correa/Lewis and/or Lee. And for the BP, it would be encouraging if they also struck early in the offseason, getting the top target of their choosing.
  20. TwinsAce
    This seems like a more accurate list...At the very least, swap out the Chicago teams. And STL and SF seem to have at least decent odds. It will definitely be interesting to see what happens with Correa and the other big name shortstops.
  21. TwinsAce
    20 Pitchers to keep: Gray, Ryan, Ober, Maeda, Winder, Mahle, Paddack, Duran, Alcala, Lopez, Thielbar, Jax, Moran, Varland, Woods Richardson, Henriquez, Sands, Enlow, Balazovic, Pagan. 13 Position Players to keep: Jeffers, Miranda, Polanco, Lewis, Gordon, Urshela, Arraez, Kirilloff, Buxton, Celestino, Larnach, Wallner, Kepler. Tougher Arbitration decisions / Prospects: Garlick, Megill, Romero, Hamilton, Contreras, Palacios, Coulombe, Stashak, Smeltzer. I'd hope for 3-5 of these to be minor league contracts with spring training invites and a chance to take the 60 day IL spots. Ideally 0 roster spots until March. FA returns? Correa and Fulmer or similar FA spots. Also need 1 SP spot and ideally another BP spot eventually. 3 Prospects to add: Eduard Julien, Matt Canterino, Yunior Severino. Prospects to consider: Misael Urbina?, DaShawn Keirsey Jr?, Austin Schulfer?, Evan Sisk?, Will Holland?, Cody Laweryson?, Chris Williams, Roy Morales, Andrew Bechtold, Zach Neff, Alex Phillips, Jair Camargo, Andrew Cabezas, Alex Isola, Anthony Prato, Brent Headrick, Michael Helman, Wander Javier, etc. So IMO, with all of the above, I'd expect 33 spots taken before considering FAs / Prospects. I see a minimum of 3 prospects being added with potentially another 2-3 from the prospects to consider list (Urbina, pitching? catching?). If more than 4 are added, then probably a few of the italics players were gone. If some of those prospects to consider are minor league FAs, hopefully an invite to spring training might keep them around. Ideally Kepler and Pagan are traded before December or January. Add in the 60 day IL guys that will be off the 40 in the spring and you have a bit more wiggle room for late signings (bullpen, backup C, backup SS?, RH OF?, Spring Training invites, etc?) It will be interesting to see how many players are lost to Rule 5. 1? 2? It also seems rare the Twins actually add 4 or more prospects...so could it just be Julien and Canterino?
  22. TwinsAce
    Haha, for sure. And yet, the throw home on a line from the warning track shows how dangerous he could be in RF eventually.
  23. TwinsAce
    We've been spoiled with Kepler's range, but I'm excited about Wallner (or someone like him) roaming right field. At least at Target Field, RF is a smaller space. If he can limit the close play errors/mistakes (like diving for the ball when he doesn't have a chance, missing the ball on a grounder, etc.) and learn how to play the RF wall, his arm should rack up the assists at both 2nd and potentially 3rd/home. And like you said, it isn't like Wallner is slow. (If anything, his stature and maybe less flexibility at 6'5" seems to show up?)
  24. TwinsAce
    Wait...so the Twins playoff futility and the Yankees World Series futility roughly is connected to Tom Gordon...so Nick Gordon is our way of breaking the curse? Right?? (And might result in the Yankees ultimately winning a World Series soon?) ?
  25. TwinsAce
    Agreed. I was actually happy they brought in Duran AND Lopez so early in the game. I'd imagine they were hoping Archer would give up 1-2 runs in 4 innings and had a plan for Duran to come into the game in the 5th. If they could just make the playoffs...that bullpen looks so much better than some years. Side note - Megill gave up the RBI double, which hurt. People also seem to run on Celestino's arm (although that was deep enough to be a tough relay for anyone.) But woof, Megill really got squeezed by the umpire (and Sanchez??) on that potential strikeout of Bregman to start the inning.
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