Here's How The Twins Can Benefit From The Juan Soto Trade

[Lou Hennessy]

The New York Yankees have, once again, acquired a world-class player, much to the chagrin of the rest of the league. But they now have a pretty crowded outfield picture. Can the Twins find a way to benefit from this?
 

Image courtesy of © Ray Acevedo-USA TODAY Sports

It’s hard to argue that Juan Soto going to the New York Yankees is somehow a good thing for the Minnesota Twins. He’s a 25-year-old marquee player on a Hall of Fame trajectory, who will now don the pinstripes of Twins Territory’s most hated rival. But this monumental trade between the Bronx bombers and the San Diego Padres has many layers to it. If the Twins play their cards right, they could benefit from the shuffling of these rosters.

For those who missed it, Soto was sent to the Yankees along with outfielder Trent Grisham, for a package headlined by three of New York’s best young pitchers. While Childish Bambino will surely garner the most attention when looking at this swap, Grisham could be of interest to the Twins if the Yankees are willing to flip him.

Talks surrounding this trade went on for days before the Yankees and Padres finally made it official, and New York actually completed a separate deal in the meantime. In a surprising development, the Yankees acquired Alex Verdugo from the rival Boston Red Sox, and will have him seeing regular action in their outfield throughout the 2024 campaign. Was this a fallback option in case they couldn’t reel in Soto? A leverage play to soften San Diego's demands? Or do they have more moves up their sleeve?

It’s unclear how all these pieces will fit together, but the club now finds themselves with a plethora of established outfielders, including Soto, Verdugo, Grisham and Aaron Judge. Each of those players are used to seeing everyday playing time, so somebody will have to take the back seat--and let’s just say Soto and Judge are assured to be sitting shotgun for the foreseeable future.

Could the Twins swoop in and make a play for Grisham? He would fill the hole left by Michael A. Taylor, that of a defense-forward true center fielder on a friendly contract. The fleet-footed 27-year-old has two years of club control remaining, and he’s expected to earn $4.9 million via arbitration in 2024. His stellar defense (92nd-percentile range, according to Statcast) makes him good enough to be a reliable option even if the bat falters, but he wouldn’t block playing time should Byron Buxton find himself healthy enough to take the field.

Grisham is a left-handed hitter, but he’s had reverse platoon splits throughout his career. Those numbers took it a step further in 2023, when he had a .790 OPS against fellow southpaws. That could fit nicely as a platoon option alongside Willi Castro, who had an .803 OPS against righties in 2023. In his whole career, Grisham has only 518 plate appearances against southpaws, so we have to do quite a bit of regression in order to project him in this way for the future, but it's certainly worth noting.

The Yankees must have seen something they liked in Grisham when making the trade, but with Verdugo also in the fold, the former Padre could be expendable for the right price. Maybe the Twins can offer a mid-level prospect or two to help replenish the Yankees’ farm system that was just purged of its most exciting arms last week. Could some combination of impressive B-level prospects in the back half of Twins Daily's Prospect Rankings pique their interest? Would the Yankees insist on getting someone closer to being big league-ready such as Simeon Woods-Richardson?

Here’s another outside-the-box idea: would the Yankees have any interest in Kyle Farmer (.725 OPS in 2023), to go along with a prospect package? Anthony Volpe (.666 OPS) is pegged to get the lion’s share of playing time at shortstop, with Oswald Peraza (.539 OPS) as his backup, so the Yankees may see value in the idea of swapping a fourth outfielder for a utility infielder who can play a solid shortstop if Volpe fails to improve. Farmer could also spell D.J. LeMahieu at third base or Gleyber Torres at second, if needed. Here's what a trade pitch could look like:

• Twins receive:
  Grisham - .198/.315/.352 (91 wRC+), 13 home runs, 15 stolen bases, 1.7 fWAR in 155 games played in 2023
• Yankees receive:
  Farmer - .256/.317/.408 (101 wRC+), 11 home runs, two stolen bases, 1.6 fWAR in 120 games played in 2023
  Yasser Mercedes (No. 14 prospect) - .294/.356/.488, eight home runs, 36 stolen bases in 66 games played in Rookie ball since 2022
  Woods-Richardson (No. 17) - 4.91 ERA (1.50 WHIP), 7.6 K/9, 4.8 BB/9 across 24 games (22 starts) at Triple-A in 2023
   

It’s still to be determined whether the Yankees are set on holding on to Grisham, despite their crowded outfield that now features two superstars and two more established regulars. But it would behoove the Twins to reach out in an effort to improve their club along the margins, and to ride the wave of the ripples set into motion by the Soto trade. 

What do you think? Would Trent Grisham be a good fit for this Twins team? What should they be willing to give up to make it happen? Let us know what you think in the comments, and as always, keep it sweet. 

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[Cory Engelhardt]

I wouldn’t trade swr in a deal like this. Maybe someone else, but I’m not certain that this is the deal I would shoot for. I appreciate the thought process here though 

[miracleb]

Huh....it looks like he was a Padres "salary dump" that they forced the Yankees to include in the deal.  He flat out can't hit....at all.  We would be able to get him for free....... when the Yankees "release" him.

[Brandon]

The Yankees are using Judge in CF and probably want to keep Trent as the 4 th OF to have a true CF option.  Plus Trent hits .200 we are better off in house.  

[Drtwins]

Hard pass. I'd rather trade Polanco or Farmer for a relief pitcher or prospects then use their salary to sign Harrison Bader.

[MinnInPa]

the guy cant hit .225..my God no.. 

[rv78]

Grisham looks to be a cheaper version of Gallo. Which means this FO is likely to jump at the opportunity to get him. I'll be more emphatic and say, H E double L toothpicks NO.

[JD-TWINS]

28 minutes ago, Drtwins said:

Hard pass. I'd rather trade Polanco or Farmer for a relief pitcher or prospects then use their salary to sign Harrison Bader.

Had to respond somewhere……Trent Grisham is terrible. .184 & .196 BA in the past 2 seasons with 1,079 AB’s & 304 K’s. We have so many better options internally I won’t try to list ……essentially anything we could think of to try is better, no matter how much of a reach.

Bader is not much better! .650 OPS in ‘22 & .622 OPS in ‘23.

Centerfield in ‘24 :

Castro - Rodriguez (underdeveloped) - Martin (underdeveloped) - Gordon - Kiersy …..,IMO, any of these options are better cost benefit (benefit ceiling is pretty low) than either of the guys mentioned above. Also, Buxton MAY play 30-40 games in CF in ‘24.

 

[stringer bell]

4 minutes ago, rv78 said:

Grisham looks to be a cheaper version of Gallo. Which means this FO is likely to jump at the opportunity to get him. I'll be more emphatic and say, H E double L toothpicks NO.

Poor hitting numbers, no doubt. He is a legit center fielder, probably on a par with Michael A. and that is worth something. Actually, I would say he's a cheaper version of Gallo, but a more expensive version of Andrew Stevenson.

[Brandon27]

I ask for Cabrera or Pereira 

[Trov]

Why would we trade SWR for Grisham?  I would not want to do that trade straight up. What about Grisham says he should play every day in a line up? Grisham has been below league average hitter last 2 years.  He is not considered a top defender.  I see no upside for him.  We can find him or someone like him on waivers, heck we put people like him on waivers and they pass through normally. 

[Althebum82]

Interesting thought.  This is all we pretty much get to do with a relatively dormant off-season, discuss free agents signing elsewhere (i.e. Stevenson yesterday) and concoct potential trade opportunity scenarios.  

It is ironic to think that the Yankees may be overloaded in the outfield after their high-profile disasters in LF contributed mightily to a stinker of a season.

For me it is hard to give up on a starting pitcher after losing two free agent starters and not knowing for sure how Paddack will shake out (although what we saw last season was promising) post-injury.

While I appreciate the vision to see a possible opportunity for the Twins, this does not trip my trigger.

[awmonahan]

I'm not seeing it. I feel like Farmer is a good fit for the Mets, who just lost a key middle infielder. And SWR should be worth more than just a part of a trade for a 4th outfielder. 

 

I do like the idea of leveling up to a solid 4th OF, like Michael A, but this costs too much for me. 

[HoskenPowell]

Flat out NO.

[Otaknam]

This doesn’t make sense. Grisham’s batting average is below .200 and he hits left handed, and  outfield is already crowded with lefty hitters. Mercedes is a top prospect with lots of tools, and SWR still has potential. Seems like the Twins could find a less expensive fill in right handed batting outfield free agent who can play defense and hit better than .200 with more power.

[DJL44]

Grisham is a decent 4th outfielder but at his contract cost they shouldn't give up anything to acquire him.

[baul0010]

That trade seems pretty bad.  Unless you are trying to clear out 40 man roster spots, I am not sure why you'd want to do that trade.  I'm not sure I'd want to send Farmer straight up for Grisham, let alone toss in prospects.  

I think Martin could hit .198 in his sleep if we aren't trying to force him to hit 15 dingers a year.  

[IndianaTwin]

If the options are...

A. Give up SWR for Grisham and pay the $4.9 million he's projected to get through arbitration.

B. Re-sign Taylor for the same $4.5 million he got this year. 

I'll take Taylor, keeping SWR in the process.  

[RpR]

Resign Taylor.

[adorduan]

No. I've seen enough below Mendoza line hitters on the Twins to last the rest of my life. Hard pass....

[TopGunn#22]

Grisham is a dumpster fire and the Padres got the Yankees to take him because they knew how desperate the Yanks were to get Soto.  I'm not giving up potentially decent players like Mercedes and SWR to take on the dead weight somebody else agreed to just to acquire a top-5 hitter.  

[Minny505]

2 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Bader is not much better! .650 OPS in ‘22 & .622 OPS in ‘23.

And even with those two injury riddled seasons his career wRC+ is 10 points higher than MAT, who is coming off the best wRC+ season of his career. On top of that, Bader is 3 years younger. Admittedly, his injury history may have left him unable to perform at previous levels.

I'm not saying we should go sign him. I'm indifferent to the idea. But for even money, I'd prefer him to MAT. That 17% K% Bader brings with him is nearly half the rate that MAT carries. I usually don't care about that sort of thing, but when your team leads the league by a decent margin, it does need to be prioritized.

That said, I like you, would prefer to stay in-house and spend whatever resources the team has on getting the best SP they can. If there is found money after SP is filled with a solid 2/3 type, then Bader is as good of a way to fill the remaining needs on this team as there is on the FA market. He has bounce-back (to some degree) written all over him if he can stay relatively healthy and get to 500 PAs.

[stringer bell]

Taylor is going to get a lot more than $4.5M IMHO. 

[Blyleven2011]

1 hour ago, RpR said:

Resign Taylor.

Correct , I like the resign Taylor  for money but most likely isn't going to happen as he will surely get a 2 plus year contract from some team  ...

keep our prospects  and let them play  , give them the chance to hit over the mendoza line  ...

[Byrdman]

Stanton will be injuried most of the year so one of the 4 OF will be DH.  They could use one of the young Middle IF's at DH as well.  They wont trade one of the 4 OF's until Jasson Domingez is ready to come back.  That is mid year at the earliest.  But more than likely September.  Verdugo is the rental, he is holding Jasson's spot till he is back. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Grisham just doesn’t seem worth it.  He profiles as a defense-first fourth outfielder, which isn’t worth Farmer alone, Mercedes alone, or SWR alone, let alone all together.  If I’m the Yankees I take that trade and laugh all the way to the bank.  Farmer is obviously a very replaceable part on the Twins current team, but Mercedes and SWR each probably have a higher upside than Grisham, who they don’t really need or want.  

[KBJ1]

A 198 hitter? Would not take him for free! We have better options on house already. Mark my words, Austin Martin is going to have a breakout year.

The Twins have 2 major needs & a couple of depth issues.

#1) A RH hitting 5 tool player for the gaping hole in left field. Lourdes Gurriel fills that need perfectly. 

#2) A #2 SP. This one will require some clever trade manipulation and may be difficult to attain.

#3) a solid bullpen guy like Devin Williams and maybe depth at 1B.

Trading Polanco / Kepler would clear salary space for Gurriel & Williams and still leave $15 of payroll for a SP.

 

[mikelink45]

I see this as a big reach to have a column to write.  Not excited by Grisham, not wanting to send prospects to NY.  Big No - move on. 

[AWOLNATION_11]

I thought after reading the title of the article was going to be about the increased value of Kepler after the Yankees taking three left-handed hitting outfielders off the trade market.  Can't image the Twins trading for Grisham is even a consideration for the front office.  

[DocBauer]

Or, sign the much better Kiermaier for another $3-3.5M and keep Farmer and the prospects for yourself.