There is an old very true saying that before you can decide what to do now to impact the future, you have to know where you are now in space and time. I think that before the Twins can decide whether to buy or sell at the deadline, or to do both in some measure, you have to have a sober, clearheaded view of what talent we have now and how we think it will perform in 2027 and 2028. I think we have a pretty good consensus on the 2026 roster. The ceiling is roughly 85 wins, a Wild Car berth or Division title if everyone else falters, maybe win one playoff round, and then a pretty quick exit. The floor is we spiral downward either now or in August and wind up at 72 – 75 wins, with more questions than answers going forward. The most likely result is somewhere in between those two.

So the big question is where are we likely to be in '27 and '28 if we do little or nothing at the Trade Deadline, or do just a couple low wattage trades for relief pitchers who aren't going to be with us past this year. I think that's where many of us disagree and why we have such divergent thoughts for this year's Trade Deadline. I thought I would try to get at that answer by dividing our current talent at the MLB and AAA level into 7 categories - (1) guys who are now stars and should continue to be stars through either '27 or '28, (2) average or above average MLB starters through '28, (3) guys who have a 50% chance or more of being at least above average MLB starters in 2027 or by 2028, (4) guys and could be contributing roster players in 2027 and/or 2028 but probably not as starters, rotation pieces, or in the top five of the bullpen, or who need to change position to be a contributing guy, (5) guys who are now ready to make MLB debuts, have small sample sizes at the MLB level, or will be ready by 2027 or 2028 and look like they deserve an extended run at the MLB level with a 50% or better chance of success, (6) guys on the AA or AAA level who are wildcards, could be anywhere from stars to failures but deserve a shot in the next 2.5 years, and (7) guys who are either really young or below AA and who look like future MLB starters likely more than two years away but could surprise. With categories (5) - (7), I think it's a safe assumption that none will be immediate stars but the guys I've tried to list are those I think have at least an outside shot at being average or better MLB starters in' 27 or' 28. In each case, I note the position for all players, which I think is important for the pitchers as well as the hitters. For example, I think Bailey Ober will be an average or better #4 starter, but he isn't an average or better #3 or higher MLB starter. I also eliminated older players who I think just won't be around next year or they year after or, if they are, would always be in imminent danger of being replaced like Taylor Rogers and Tommy Nance. I didn't go below the AA level because below that is a complete crapshoot although I did include Tait because I think he is more than a crapshoot. I did not include any of this year's draftees for that same reason.

I think you have to start here before you can make the buy or sell decision. A sober reflection of what you currently have helps you decide whether you need to blow it up, trade the veterans for the best prospects you can get and play for 2029 later, whether there's a real chance to compete in 27 and 2028 if you get the right prospects or even just stand relatively pat, or whether you're somewhere in between. Here's my thinking:

(1) Current Stars Likely to Remain Stars through 2027 and/or 2028 - Byron Buxton (CF, may be moving to LF by 2028) , Pablo Lopez (currently only 2027 before contract expires, #1/#2 Starter), Joe Ryan (same, #2 Starter). That's it. The shortness of this list may be a big part of the problem.

(2) Average or Better MLB Starters - Luke Keaschall (RF/LF), Brooks Lee (3B), Kody Clemens (2B), Trevor Laranch (LHOF/DH, but only in a platoon), Victor Caratini ('27 only), Taj Bradley (#3 or maybe even #2 starter), Bailey Ober (#4/#5 starter), Yolendrys Gomez (late inning reliever), Andrew Morris (late inning reliever), Cole Sands (middle reliever).

(3) Players With a 50% or Better Chance to be Average or Better MLB Starters, but no sure thing - Royce Lewis (1B), Mick Abel (#4/#5 starter), Connor Prielipp (#4 or better starter). 

(4) Contributing Roster Players but Not Starters - Ryan Kreidler (UTL IF), Austin Martin (4th OF), Zebby Martin (as a RP could move up a category, but not as a starting pitcher), Alex Jackson (2nd C but not a starter).

(5) Players With Potential That Deserve a Shot at with 50% chance or Better of Success - Walker Jenkins (OF), Kaelen Culpepper (SS/3B/2B), Kendry Rojas (RP/SP), Mike Paredes (RP), Henry Mendez (OF, not until '28), Marek Houston (SS, not until '28).

(6) Guys Who Deserve a Shot But Are Complete Wildcards - Emmanuel Rodriguez (OF, wildcard mostly due to age and injury concerns), Alan Roden (OF), Gabriel Gonzalez (OF, wildcard because of his age), CJ Culpepper (RP), Travis Adams (RP), Kody Funderburk (RP), Marco Raya (RP), John Klein (RP), Ryan Gallagher (RP), Woo Suk Go (RP), Ben Ross (SS/UTL), Ricardo Olivar (2nd C), Kalai'i Rosario (OF).

(7) Players With Real Potential More Than 2 Years Away Who Could Surprise- Riley Quick (SP/RP), Kadim Diaw (C/OF, age), Brandon Winknour (OF), Eduardo Tate (C).

So I look at that and it causes me to look at 2027 and 2028 with cautious but tempered optimism. I think this is a classic Twins situation; we have about two thirds of a competitive MLB team. We have one star in the field and two in the starting rotation. We have two more starting pitchers who are quality MLB starters lower in the rotation. We have average or better MLB starters at 2B, 3B, and the OF corners, plus at Catcher but only for one more season. We have two, maybe three good relief pitchers, and everybody else is a wildcard.  We have a strong utility infielder but right now he has to be the starting SS, and it looks like we might have a quality fourth OF. It looks like we may have reinforcements at SS and in the OF on the way. We have some rotation depth but not a lot, and we don't have a C with a short timeline. The bullpen is wide open, and a complete crapshoot. If we have a surplus from which to trade prospects it is clearly in the OF and maybe at Shortstop.

All of this leads me to think that we buy and sell at the deadline. We sell Jeffers, much as I would like to keep him, because his contract is going to be up and we should be able to get potentially quality, near MLB ready relief or starting pitching prospects for him. We trade Larnach but only if we can get a young, controllable relief pitcher that we think can be in the top five or six in the bullpen by 2027 at the latest. We hold onto Ryan unless we get a huge haul and we shop Bell but is unlikely we can get much for him so he probably stays. The one blockbuster move I would consider is trading some guys in categories 5 – 7 other than Jenkins in a package for a controllable established starting pitcher hopefully plus a relief pitcher, like Reid Demers or José Soriano plus Sam Bachman of the Angels. I'm sure there's others to target. I think there's more here than justifies a complete tear down and rebuild but I don't think we can just stand pat.

Thanks if anybody waded through this overly long analysis. What do you guys think?