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DataNerd

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  1.    Danchat reacted to a post in a topic: Can The Twins Trust Their Three Rookies In 2027?
  2.    Cory Engelhardt reacted to a post in a topic: Can The Twins Trust Their Three Rookies In 2027?
  3.    DJL44 reacted to a post in a topic: Can The Twins Trust Their Three Rookies In 2027?
  4.    friedbrycenbeans reacted to a post in a topic: Can The Twins Trust Their Three Rookies In 2027?
  5.    DocBauer reacted to a post in a topic: Why Minnesota Twins Might Not Extend Qualifying Offer to Ryan Jeffers
  6.    Rod Carews Birthday reacted to a post in a topic: Can The Twins Trust Their Three Rookies In 2027?
  7.    MapleGroveTwinsFan reacted to a post in a topic: Can The Twins Trust Their Three Rookies In 2027?
  8.    SE23 reacted to a post in a topic: Can The Twins Trust Their Three Rookies In 2027?
  9.    Patzky reacted to a post in a topic: Can The Twins Trust Their Three Rookies In 2027?
  10. DataNerd
    I don't think trust is the right word, but we are not currently a great team and hoping these guys turn out is easily our best shot at being a WS team in the next few years.
  11.    IndianaTwin reacted to a post in a topic: Why Minnesota Twins Might Not Extend Qualifying Offer to Ryan Jeffers
  12. DataNerd
    Last year the best FA catcher was Realmuto who signed for 3/45. He was 34 coming off a 2.0/1.9/2.0 previous 3 seasons WAR, Jeffers is 29 and has 1.6/2.1/2.6 (which would have been 3+ if he stayed healthy and played his usual 120G rather than 90). I'd bet Jeffers gets more than Realmuto did, the main question being if he gets 3 or 4 years.
  13.    DataNerd reacted to a post in a topic: Why Minnesota Twins Might Not Extend Qualifying Offer to Ryan Jeffers
  14.    DataNerd reacted to a post in a topic: Why Minnesota Twins Might Not Extend Qualifying Offer to Ryan Jeffers
  15. DataNerd
    I don't have serious concerns about that. Right now we are having problems from the 23 pitching draft being an absolute stinker and trading away Hill from the 24 draft, but the 22 draft was really good (Prielipp, Morris, Matthews and we only signed 8 pitchers) and the 25 draft looks good currently. We don't have a ton of SP under contract for 28, but we also have a ton of money freeing up that year (Lopez, Hoffman, Caratini are $32M, Ryan/Kremer/Ober currently estimated for a combined $26M, and looking I'm guessing around $5-10M will be spent on arb increases on guys we keep). The SP problem isn't as large when $48M is coming off the books to address it.
  16. DataNerd
    I think it would be a horrible decision not to extend it, I think Jeffers doesn't accept and I'm happier if he does than doesn't. Guys of his caliber don't sign 1 year deals, so lots of people will compare how much he's worth to a guy getting the same amount on a 3/4 year deal.
  17.    DataNerd reacted to a post in a topic: Could Paul Goldschmidt Give the Twins a Platoon Solution?
  18.    DataNerd reacted to a post in a topic: Could Paul Goldschmidt Give the Twins a Platoon Solution?
  19. DataNerd
    The Brewers have some really good pitchers taken later in the draft (Miz, Burns, and ironically Drew Rasmussen now on the Rays) but their hitting picks have been much more average. Turang is the only 1st rounder in the past decade who has become a star, and he came in a 4 year stretch where they completely whiffed on their other 3 picks. I'm not sure the Rays are even that good at drafting. My modeling has their 2 most valuable players drafted the last 10 years being, and I'm not joking, Joe Ryan and Taj Bradley. It's easy to just say that the best teams are better at everything, but there are plenty of ways to build a team. IMO the draft is the area the Twins are the strongest at but nobody builds a championship contender solely through the draft.
  20. DataNerd
    He walked 12.6% of the time this year, not that much less than his minors walk rate. The issue is he doesn't hit the ball hard.
  21.    DataNerd reacted to a post in a topic: The Twins Have Ground to Make Up in Baseball Analytics
  22.    DataNerd reacted to a post in a topic: The Twins Have Ground to Make Up in Baseball Analytics
  23. DataNerd
    This is Mitch Garver erasure
  24. DataNerd
    Carson Kelly will likely decline his mutual option, and he would be solid option as well.
  25.    DataNerd reacted to a post in a topic: The 7 Biggest Decisions for the Twins' Offseason: Should They Try to Bring Ryan Jeffers Back?
  26.    DataNerd reacted to a post in a topic: The 7 Biggest Decisions for the Twins' Offseason: Should They Try to Bring Ryan Jeffers Back?
  27.    DataNerd reacted to a post in a topic: Four Twins Who Need to Step Up in 2027
  28. DataNerd
    The only way to really mess this up is to keep all of the expirings and deciding not to re-sign any of them. Trade one of them and we can easily re-sign at least one of them, potentially 2 and this isn't an issue. Current arb estimates, assuming we keep Ober, has the 4 making $44.5M next year. Even with our payroll situation and assuming no salary floor changing that, we can still easily retain one.
  29. DataNerd
    The main improvement is he started pulling the ball in the air more. He had the 12th most pulled FBs in baseball last year, after being 91st in 25 (8.2% of PAs in 26, 5.7% in 25). Every single player does significantly better than their expected stats on pulled flyballs, so I would expect xwOBA to underrate him, the question is how much.
  30.    DataNerd reacted to a post in a topic: Twins Daily Awards 2026: Most Improved
  31. DataNerd
    I'm not planning on Buxton/ERod/Jenkins all being healthy for more than a month unfortunately.
  32. DataNerd
    Clemens had been above-average at 2B before this year, and 3 OAA/RAA isn't much, that can just be a couple bad plays. 1 FRV in 994 career IP at 2B is solid for a utility guy.
  33. DataNerd
    Yep, we saw this with Austin Martin where moving an athletic guy to the OF resulted in him being horrible in 24, average in 25 and above average in 26 (despite being a bit slower this year). Keaschall is faster than Martin was as well, and even with a bottom 5 OF arm should be able to be above-average in LF.
  34. DataNerd
    In terms of hitter/pitcher in a vacuum I would disagree; of the top 20 SP by fWAR, 4 were taken top 10 and another 3 were later 1st round picks, while there were 6 guys taken outside the top 100 (Schlitter, Cease, Skubal, Rasmussen, deGrom, Woo). But we are average at drafting/developing hitters, so it could make sense to lean into our strength in a draft where we weren't passing up on a guy like Lackey.
  35. DataNerd
    Yep. I've done some experimental analysis that puts us 6th in value from drafted pitchers since 21 and we've spent the 16th most capital on pitchers and 8th in getting value from picks. Our pitching issues have come from (1) horrible development of international players and (2) we basically never get good pitchers in FA. We also haven't had a guy get drafted an become an absolute stud, but we've had plenty of solid players despite not spending firsts on pitchers.
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