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DataNerd

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  1.    Mike Sixel reacted to a post in a topic: Twins 5, Royals 3: Sixth Inning Ambush Fuels Comeback Win
  2.    DocBauer reacted to a post in a topic: Twins 5, Royals 3: Sixth Inning Ambush Fuels Comeback Win
  3.    krink reacted to a post in a topic: Twins 5, Royals 3: Sixth Inning Ambush Fuels Comeback Win
  4.    JDubs reacted to a post in a topic: Twins 5, Royals 3: Sixth Inning Ambush Fuels Comeback Win
  5. DataNerd
    If you had Austin Martin's arm being the difference in this game, go play the lottery. Bullpen playing solid. Adams got hit around a bit, but he didn't walk anybody up by 3 so I'm a lot less annoyed about today. Matthews, who throughout his career has seemed to have worse results than he should, has a start where he has much better ones than he should have.
  6. DataNerd
    At 3, I am fully on board with any of Roch/Emerson/Lackey. Flora hasn't been dominant enough for me to take him over those guys; 33 K%, while Skenes had 45% and Chase Burns had 49%, both in better conferences. Not enough upside to take the risk of injury that comes with pitching. Would be a fan of that pick at 43. Don't know a ton about the names, but a high upside bat/arm is good with me. Not a big fan of the last 2 picks together and doesn't seem like the guys the FO goes after in this area. We have taken high upside low flow arms each of the last 5 drafts, which works well when you can hit on low end starters and relievers with later picks.
  7. DataNerd
    That's a big issue at the lower levels, but the guys who that applies to tend to be college pitchers who are able to locate poor stuff fairly well. Hill hasn't done that, and has better velo/spin than anyone else in the system in A/A+ other than Quick. He has the stuff to succeed in the majors, but not the stuff to be wild and succeed.
  8.    FlyingFinn reacted to a post in a topic: Has Austin Martin Been Exposed?
  9.    Dman reacted to a post in a topic: Twins Daily Minor League Pitcher of the Month: May 2026
  10. DataNerd
    The early returns for the 2025 late-round pitchers have been great, probably rivaling that of the 2022 class after year 1 (Zebby, Culpepper, Lewis). Mitrovich/Hilker/Moring/Smith all have shown some positive traits that with future development could lead to being good MLB pitchers. Need to remember that of the 2022 trio, Zebby was the least-regarded of them after their first full year, and that the hit rate of the four will probably be low. But it is a lot better than previous years have been, and a return to form for the biggest strength of the FO.
  11. DataNerd
    Martin had huge platoon splits last year as well, so it isn't as if this is something new. If one of Wallner/Roden/Jenkins/ERod was available/not awful, he probably doesn't get nearly as many PAs against RHP and the overall results look much better. He's a valuable guy to pair with Larnach, who is a below-replacement level player against LHP but hits righties well. While Martin is the short side of the platoon, there aren't enough guys like him in the league for as many guys who can't hit lefties to platoon them all, so he has value.
  12.    D.C Twins reacted to a post in a topic: Twins Minor League Report (6/2): Kaelen Culpepper Hits a Leadoff Homer, Royce Lewis Homers Twice; Rinse and Repeat
  13. DataNerd
    Lewis isn't fast and hasn't played much outfield. He would currently be horrific in CF, and if we are going to move an IF to the OF it would be Keaschall.
  14.    Dman reacted to a post in a topic: What To Do With Royce Lewis
  15. DataNerd
    He's just shy of 27 and has a career wRC+ of 104, and he has the tools that made him a #1 overall pick. A good hope would be he can repeat Alex Gordon's career (#2 overall pick, was a bit above average his age 23 and 24 seasons, then had 2 bad injury-plagued years, then came back with his best career year with a 6 WAR season and 21 WAR over 4 years).
  16.    DataNerd reacted to a post in a topic: What To Do With Royce Lewis
  17.    LewFordLives reacted to a post in a topic: The 2017 MLB Draft Was Full of Landmines, and the Twins Stepped on One
  18.    DocBauer reacted to a post in a topic: Twins Minor League Report (5/26): Hendry Mendez Is Unstoppable!
  19.    DataNerd reacted to a post in a topic: The 2017 MLB Draft Was Full of Landmines, and the Twins Stepped on One
  20. DataNerd
    Looking back at Enlow, I wonder if he wouldn't be nearly as well regarded with today's data/knowledge. Scouts loved his curveball, but he didn't have elite spinrates on it. Not that you absolutely need them to succeed, but he was only facing HS hitters and never got the whiffs that an elite curveball should. Velo also didn't develop nearly as hoped
  21. DataNerd
    Offensively, Mendez is checking every single box there is. BB/K, Exit Velos, traditional stats, chase/whiff. His worst Statcast stat at AAA is Barrel%, which is 76th percentile. You could probably make a strong argument for him being a top 100 guy even with the huge defensive questions. Klein should be moved to a 1 inning role to see how much he get get the fastball up to. Doesn't get high spinrates, and the fastball as it is likely won't be enough to be more than an average pitch.
  22. DataNerd
    Amick's K rate is a huge red flag and he's probably a 1B long-term, but he has consistently been a good hitter. Mendez had an adjustment period (only having 120wRC+) at AA adjusting the approach for more power, and is now dominating AAA. Might want to get him some more time at 1B to get the bat in the lineup.
  23. DataNerd
    1B is the easiest position for a player to learn. Clemens never played 1B until AAA in 2021 and was above-average playing the position in MLB in 2022.
  24. DataNerd
    A couple weeks ago, it would have been hard to think of our bullpen winning games, but here we are. I'm enjoying it while it lasts. Travis Adams has been solid, probably has pitched well enough to keep him with the big league club for the time being. Hopefully not the guy who gets send down for Bradley
  25.    DataNerd reacted to a post in a topic: BREAKING: Twins Promote Top Outfield Prospect Gabriel Gonzalez
  26. DataNerd
    Diaw is 3 years older than Tait, doesn't have near the exit velos that Tait has. IMO he's a top 30 guy, but nowhere near the prospect Tait is.
  27. DataNerd
    Hidalgo's fastball looks legit. 96-97mph, 19"IVB. Disappointed with Langenberg. 91-92mph fastball, down 1mph from 2 years ago at Fort Myers. At 24, probably should move him to a 1 inning role to see what the fastball can get up to, would be surprised if it was playable currently. Kolten Smith up to 39Ks in 23.2IP. 4.18 ERA/1.47 FIP, 93mph 17"IVB, Slider has a whiff rate around 50%
  28.    DataNerd reacted to a post in a topic: Twins Minor League Report (5/20): Kyler Fedko Goes Nuclear (Again)
  29. DataNerd
    No really going to fault Shelton for bullpen management when there really aren't any reliable options. Bullpen is 26th in WPA, which is better than its 28th place ERA.
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