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DataNerd

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  1.    DataNerd reacted to a post in a topic: Why Another Twins Trade Deadline Selloff Doesn’t Make Sense
  2.    DataNerd reacted to a post in a topic: Why Another Twins Trade Deadline Selloff Doesn’t Make Sense
  3.    D.C Twins reacted to a post in a topic: 2026 Minnesota Twins MLB Draft Recap: 21 Thoughts on 21 Draftees
  4.    rdehring reacted to a post in a topic: 2026 Minnesota Twins MLB Draft Recap: 21 Thoughts on 21 Draftees
  5.    rdehring reacted to a post in a topic: 2026 Minnesota Twins MLB Draft Recap: 21 Thoughts on 21 Draftees
  6. DataNerd
    Love the quick writeups. Will immediately caveat my thoughts with I haven't really watched these guys play. Lackey was the obvious pick, and I'm not going to give the FO any credit for this pick if it works or, nor any blame if it doesn't. On player development yes, but not for drafting. I have to assume the Twins feel better about Tinney's defense at C than the media does to take him here. Wachsmann feels even a bit more boom-bust than Hill did when drafted. Velo and spinrates are both borderline elite, but not as much present development. They seem to be drafting a lot of plus fastballs and hoping they can develop the rest of the arsenal. We'll see how it works out.
  7. DataNerd
    On lots of pitchers struggling to throw strikes, the Midwest league as a whole has forgotten how to throw strikes (typically having a BB% between 9-11 but is a bit above 13 this year). Riley Quick has been well above-average (4.14 ERA, the league's is 5.3, about a full run above last year's). There is something with the league that is different this year that is causing way more walks and runs.
  8.    DJL44 reacted to a post in a topic: 2026 Minnesota Twins MLB Draft Recap: 21 Thoughts on 21 Draftees
  9. DataNerd
    That has been their track record since Boras/Jenkins held the Twins up for more money. Teams don't want players knowing how much money is available, especially would be the case with Wachsmann where he could just demand any leftover money (not going into the overage) and probably would get it.
  10.    LewFordLives reacted to a post in a topic: When It Comes to Joe Ryan, Twins Have Four MLB Trade Deadline Options
  11.    Cris E reacted to a post in a topic: When It Comes to Joe Ryan, Twins Have Four MLB Trade Deadline Options
  12. DataNerd
    Agree with the general take, but I'm much more on the fence with him. There is still time before the deadline to either make up ground or fall back. We also need to see what the available offers are; getting a top 20 prospect is going to make it much easier to pull the trigger than if you aren't even getting top 50 guys back, and we don't know what offers actually will exist.
  13.    DataNerd reacted to a post in a topic: When It Comes to Joe Ryan, Twins Have Four MLB Trade Deadline Options
  14.    DataNerd reacted to a post in a topic: When It Comes to Joe Ryan, Twins Have Four MLB Trade Deadline Options
  15.    Patzky reacted to a post in a topic: When It Comes to Joe Ryan, Twins Have Four MLB Trade Deadline Options
  16. DataNerd
    For all of the pessimism about any chance of there being a Ryan extension, we currently only have $22M guaranteed money for 2028, and if the new CBA has a cap floor there is a good chance we have to have a higher payroll then we currently do. The only guys who will be hitting FA by 28 will be Jeffers/Caratini (which likely aren't targets for a big deal due to Lackey) Lopez (could definately see him getting a deal, but unless he pitches really well next year will be for less money than currently) and Bell/Ober/Larnach (who we may not even want). If we are forced to have a $150M payroll, we could extend Ryan and still would be required to spend more.
  17.    Cris E reacted to a post in a topic: 2026 Minnesota Twins MLB Draft Day 2 Thread
  18.    AlLagoon reacted to a post in a topic: Twins Minor League Report (7/12): Marek Houston is Incredible
  19.    Patzky reacted to a comment on a blog entry: Twins Acquire Woo Suk Go For Bullpen . . . Seriously
  20.    DataNerd reacted to a post in a topic: Twins Minor League Report (7/12): Marek Houston is Incredible
  21. DataNerd
    Houston has nowhere near Turner's power but is a better defender. My comp would be Dansby Swanson with half a grade more hit but a full grade less power.
  22. DataNerd
    You still see that in hitting, but pitching is more of a size game, and the Twins love projectible college starters.
  23. DataNerd
    3 Straight college hitters rounds 11 through 13. Pretty clear that they don't think they have much extra bonus money, otherwise would have seen someone more interesting in the 11th.
  24. DataNerd
    I wouldn't be surprised if that is the case. However, Raab was a R-SR so he is done.
  25. DataNerd
    All of the picks so far appear to be saving a bit of money, with the Lay pick saving a good chunk. Wondering if they go for an overslot guy in the 11th (where it is less damaging if you can't sign them because there is no money attached to the pick) or if Wachsmann is the only overslot guy in the draft for us.
  26.    DataNerd reacted to a post in a topic: 2026 Minnesota Twins MLB Draft Day 2 Thread
  27.    DataNerd reacted to a post in a topic: 2026 Minnesota Twins MLB Draft Day 2 Thread
  28. DataNerd
    This fits the Falvey MO of getting 1 pitcher with front of the rotation upside. Like taking HS pitchers in this range At the combine, hit 100.0 mph and 2916 RPM. Probably would be higher on the consensus board if the combine was earlier in the cycle. Also probably the only overslot guy that we are taking.
  29. DataNerd
    Like taking college arms in this range of the draft. Haven't heard of him until today, but I am a fan of the demo here.
  30.    DataNerd reacted to a post in a topic: Minnesota Twins Select Brett Renfrow In 2026 MLB Draft
  31.    DataNerd reacted to a post in a topic: Twins Select Carson Tinney With The 43rd Pick In 2026 MLB Draft
  32. DataNerd
    From a team-building perspective, I don't like the pick. You now have 1 elite and 1 good C prospect, and 43 is a good spot to take shots at top pitching without giving up lots of expected value. Would have preferred Edwards/Blair/Mendes. My toy draft model really liked him though.
  33. DataNerd
    Maybe someone else has a better memory, but this seems like more of a bullpen pick than Falvey ever made this early. Wonder if this is them having a strong belief that he can start, or if this is a difference between Falvey and Zoll. Personally don't have an issue taking a likely BP arm round 4, especially when the velo is already there rather than projection.
  34. DataNerd
    There are 4 options with Jeffers: Trade, keep and let go as a FA, keep and offer the QO, and keep and extend. This kills a Jeffers extension, since he would probably get at least 3 years and Lackey is probably a better player in 2029 than Jeffers. It's questionable that he is worth the QO, so it now boils down keeping him for 3 months or getting some value for those 3 months.
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