Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

DataNerd

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    136

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Profiles

News

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects Ranking

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

Minnesota Twins Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Pick Tracker

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Pick Tracker

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by DataNerd

  1. DataNerd
    I agree there is some regression coming, I think he will outperform the xwOBA, even if he doesn't match the current wOBA. Looking at the spray chart, he gets a bunch of pulled HRs, and Statcast doesn't like these. Lee has 5 HRs with a xwOBA below .300. These are all his balls in play between 25 and 40 degrees. xwOBA of .335, actual of .618. The posterchild for this is Isaac Parades, who over 2500 PAs has a wOBA of .336 and an xwOBA of .309. Lee is also 25. It shouldn't be expected that he is at his peak skill-level.
  2. DataNerd
    He was older, worse offensively at St Paul, and much less valuable defensively than Fedko, and he is not looking great. Unless Bell gets hurt, I'm not sure he gets time because Mendez/Gonzalez/Roden/Wallner all have much more promise. He's 27, the start of his peak, and he's an above-average but not elite bat at AAA with no defensive value.
  3. DataNerd
    Clemens is running a .635 OPS vs LHP and an .817 vs RHP this year, career its .589 and .721. He should start against every righty, but save him for a pinch hitter with a lefty starter.
  4. DataNerd
    That was technically a baseball game, but it didn't really feel like one.
  5. DataNerd
    Pitching sample size is tiny, and all defensive metrics have flaws that require large samples to smooth out. I'd be curious to see if there is any correlation between pitcher SDI year/year, wouldn't be surprised if it is absolutely tiny.
  6. DataNerd
    If I was the GM, I would be going to the Pohlad's and telling them they can remove the overage from the next year's MLB salary and spending it every year. It's probably the highest ROI that you can get in today's game in spending, except with INTL spending which is also capped. One way is to just take your 11th round pick (150k) and spend it all on a HS guy (950k), which is about a 3rd round value. To put this in WAR terms, some modeling I did had Ellwanger as 1.5 WAR when drafted, while Kolten Smith was 0.5 WAR, 1M vs 200k, and the modeling is mostly just using draft pick and signing bonus. That is about an order of magnitude more value than you are getting in FA.
  7. DataNerd
    Fedko is up because Larnach/Clemens are both poor hitters against LHP and Fedko is a righty, while Roden and our other OF prospects are LHH. Martin can platoon with one of them, but they both should be on a platoon
  8. DataNerd
    This might be the most pathetic game of the year. Not even that much because of the result, but because I don't see any reason that Voth deserves MLB innings. He's old, doesn't throw hard, last had positive WAR in 2022, and wasn't great in AAA. Completely punting on the game in the 3rd inning, and in reality when he was added to the MLB roster.
  9. DataNerd
    Jeffers is probably getting traded, but there are plenty of other teams that are WS contenders (ATL, TBR, PHI) who have less fWAR at C than the Yankees. I'm guessing that someone overpays for him against what the value charts would suggest
  10. DataNerd
    Not ready on Tait yet, and while you have to take his age in account for his prospect status, I don't see why you would take it into account for a promotion. He's gotten the K% down to 16% for June, but he only has a 4 BB%. To me he's not in consideration for a promotion.
  11. DataNerd
    I agree in theory, but I have Flora clearly below the top 3. Compare his last year to Skenes/Burns, he has significantly worse numbers in a worse conference. Flora: 33 K%, 8 BB% Burns: 49 K%, 8 BB% Skenes: 45 K%, 4 BB% Flora seems to have better stuff than his results indicate, but it's a risk and we have seen guys (Mark Appel) where the lack of Ks in college became a major issue in pro ball.
  12. DataNerd
    He's a legitimate contender if Witt gets hit by a bus.
  13. DataNerd
    Unless you feel that someone overpays massively for Gomez, why is a rebuilding team trading away a 26 year old with a ton of service time remaining? He also was just put through waivers, and we valued him more than the league as a whole by paying to jump the line. Royce Lewis makes no sense either. He still has a ton of potential, but isn't a reliable option. A contender isn't going to work through the struggles in the present to hopefully gain the rewards in 27 and 28.
  14. DataNerd
    If Bell has another stinker of a month, he probably gets DFA'd
  15. DataNerd
    Often curveballs are just as good against opposite handed hitters, and sometimes even better than same. It's currently SSS, but he has a significantly higher whiff rate against RHH (38.6%) vs LHH (23.5%), and it has had a positive run value against RHH and negative against LHH. His slider has also been above-average to RHH. The main problem is that fastball has been awful to them. Poor extension takes off about 1mph from the fastball, and it doesn't have good movement.
  16. DataNerd
    If Prielipp had a normal development path, he probably adds a curveball his So or Jr year of college. The advantage of taking high spinrate pitchers is that they often are able to just add a good, or in this case elite, pitch from scratch.
  17. DataNerd
    Walker Jenkins Needs to start making business decisions to stay healthy.Kaelen Culpepper Still underrated IMO. 5 tool player.Marek Houston Houston over ERod is more about Houston. I think he would be a top 50.Emmanuel Rodriguez Healthy ERod is #1 or #2.Riley Quick Great stuff, need to see how he adjusts to a long season.Kendry Rojas Massive ceiling if he can figure some things else, more likely looking like a dominant bullpen arm. Control and injuries keep him from being a Top 100 guy.Eduardo Tait Feels like a good backup/mediocre starting C that hits .200 with power. Upside is immense.Hendry Mendez Bat looks legit, but being a 1B/DH doesn't give him much room for error.Dasan Hill Will be a stud if he improves his control, but at it's current spot it is unplayable.Charlee Soto I'll have a better opinion after he's been pitching for 2-3 weeks.Brandon Winokur Making improvements, but not making the leap. Raw power often develops into game power late, and he has plenty of it.Ryan Gallagher Solid but unspectacular secondaries, and decent but not great command. Fastball has good movement, but probably needs it to be higher than its current 93 to work. If he can't add more velo in the offseason, he probably needs to get it by moving to the pen.Gabriel Gonzalez Makes good contact, but not a fan of the rest of his game.Khadim Diaw Has consistently hit in the minors, but power and fielding concerns put pressure on the bat. Being a C and OF gives him potentially a unique role for a utility player.James Ellwanger 95 with great extension, get good spin on both a cutter and curveball, kills spin on the changeup. Had control issues in college which holds him down for now, but the stuff looks good enough for MLB.Adrian Bohorquez Similar to Hill, but with a worse changeup and a year older.Yasser Mercedes Has been slow to adjust to every promotion, but still has a great speed/power combination at 21.Bruin Agbayani Not a toolsy HS pick, but he has 16:6 BB:K in Fort Myers. Eye/Contact is enough to go in at this range.Jhomnardo Reyes Extreme risk/reward. Can hit it hard, hasn't faced good enough pitchers to know if he can hit.CJ Culpepper Throws a weird fastball that has been solid, and an assortment of breaking balls that are individually decent.
  18. DataNerd
    Houston seems to have figured A+ ball out. 23 BB%/11 K% in June. With the glove and being a solid hitter in college, I don't see the argument against Houston being a Top 100 guy. Quick hasn't been as dominant in A+, but he's still striking a bunch of guys out. With the lack of college innings, it might be more reasonable for timeline to be late 27/early 28 for his debut. Mitrovich had a rough inning, but continues to get whiffs on the changeup and has the fastball velocity not losing too much later on. Slider needs work, but it's a good base to start from.
  19. DataNerd
    Go back to 2018, and you had Lewis, Nick Gordon, and Wander Javier all being the SS of the future
  20. DataNerd
    Add on the fact that Keaschall has an 86th percentile sprint speed, and he should be able to be well above-average in a corner and playable in CF. Martin has made significant improvements once he moved to outfield full time, and he isn't as fast a Keaschall is. Also add on that 1B may be needed for Lewis, and that he wouldn't be able to play anywhere else.
  21. DataNerd
    Houston singled in each of the first 5 innings, then grounded out in the 6th. Wonder what is the most consecutive innings a player got a hit
  22. DataNerd
    I'm not huge on drafting a catcher this high, but I'm also thinking that Lackey might be the best guy in the draft. The bat is good enough to consider taking him at 3 if he was a 3B. Not sure that I would take him over Cholowsky/Emerson, but easily would over anyone else.
  23. DataNerd
    An area the Quick vs Yesavage comp fails is Yesavage had 2 full college years as a starter with a 2.03 ERA in 93.1 IP his Jr year, while Quick only had 1, 62 IP 3.92 ERA. Quick has all the upside that Yesavage had, but he was much less of a complete package, which was why he went much later. Yesavage would have also gone higher if not concern for him having a collapsed lung late his Jr year.
  24. DataNerd
    Not close to giving up on Morris, but he could use some time in St Paul to mess with the secondaries. He gets a decent amount of spin to where he should be able to get a breaking ball that will work with the Fastball
  25. DataNerd
    He was a good base stealer in college (was tied for 7th in steals in the ACC his Jr year, with a 19 SB/ 2 CS season), and currently is in a 7 way tie for 21st in A+. He's going to be an asset as a baserunner, but probably should only expect 10-20 SB with good efficiency in the majors. Kane Kepley (Cubs 2025 2nd round pick, CF from UNC with 70 Speed) has 32 SB to 1 CS at the level. Last year Kendall George (LAD OF with 70 Speed) had 100 SB and 24 CS. In 2012 Billy Hamilton had 104 in 82 games. Houston's SB totals are much more aligned with a 55-60 speed grade
×
×
  • Create New...