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DataNerd

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Everything posted by DataNerd

  1. DataNerd
    Glad to see I'm not the only one on the Mitrovich train. On Quick, here is how the college pitchers after the top 4 have fared (15) Witherspoon, 5.05 ERA, 24K%/13BB% in A+ (23) Wood, 3.42 ERA, 38K%/11B% in A (26IP), 2.45 ERA 32K%/2BB% in AA (11 IP) (29) Forbes, only thrown 2.1IP since being drafted (33) Phillips, 7.62 ERA 25K%/16BB% in A+ (36) Quick, 3.98 ERA, 38K%/11B% in A+ (40) Root 1.50 ERA, 38K%/12BB% in A+ (45) Middleton 4.95 ERA, 19K%/14BB% in A (47) Shores, 5.06 ERA, 34K%/13BB% in A+ Quick has been striking out hitters at A+ at as high of a rate as any other pitcher in this range. Wood has significant injury/mechanics and reliever concerns, and Root's fastball gives concerns on how well it will play against better hitters. Quick also pitched less in college than most of the group as well
  2. DataNerd
    Wichita really doesn't have many guys who are legitimate prospects. Amick has been solid, DeBarge is disappointing, and then a whole lot of meh. Houston's stats were worse in May than April, but he cut the K% from 24% to 18%. With the defense he has, along with being a positive baserunner (15/16 on SB this year), he only needs to be an average hitter to be a really valuable player and could be a solid starter while being a bit below average. Early returns from June have it down to 10%, which probably won't stick there but are a good sign he is still making progress.
  3. DataNerd
    If you had Austin Martin's arm being the difference in this game, go play the lottery. Bullpen playing solid. Adams got hit around a bit, but he didn't walk anybody up by 3 so I'm a lot less annoyed about today. Matthews, who throughout his career has seemed to have worse results than he should, has a start where he has much better ones than he should have.
  4. DataNerd
    At 3, I am fully on board with any of Roch/Emerson/Lackey. Flora hasn't been dominant enough for me to take him over those guys; 33 K%, while Skenes had 45% and Chase Burns had 49%, both in better conferences. Not enough upside to take the risk of injury that comes with pitching. Would be a fan of that pick at 43. Don't know a ton about the names, but a high upside bat/arm is good with me. Not a big fan of the last 2 picks together and doesn't seem like the guys the FO goes after in this area. We have taken high upside low flow arms each of the last 5 drafts, which works well when you can hit on low end starters and relievers with later picks.
  5. DataNerd
    That's a big issue at the lower levels, but the guys who that applies to tend to be college pitchers who are able to locate poor stuff fairly well. Hill hasn't done that, and has better velo/spin than anyone else in the system in A/A+ other than Quick. He has the stuff to succeed in the majors, but not the stuff to be wild and succeed.
  6. DataNerd
    The early returns for the 2025 late-round pitchers have been great, probably rivaling that of the 2022 class after year 1 (Zebby, Culpepper, Lewis). Mitrovich/Hilker/Moring/Smith all have shown some positive traits that with future development could lead to being good MLB pitchers. Need to remember that of the 2022 trio, Zebby was the least-regarded of them after their first full year, and that the hit rate of the four will probably be low. But it is a lot better than previous years have been, and a return to form for the biggest strength of the FO.
  7. DataNerd
    Martin had huge platoon splits last year as well, so it isn't as if this is something new. If one of Wallner/Roden/Jenkins/ERod was available/not awful, he probably doesn't get nearly as many PAs against RHP and the overall results look much better. He's a valuable guy to pair with Larnach, who is a below-replacement level player against LHP but hits righties well. While Martin is the short side of the platoon, there aren't enough guys like him in the league for as many guys who can't hit lefties to platoon them all, so he has value.
  8. DataNerd
    Lewis isn't fast and hasn't played much outfield. He would currently be horrific in CF, and if we are going to move an IF to the OF it would be Keaschall.
  9. DataNerd
    He's just shy of 27 and has a career wRC+ of 104, and he has the tools that made him a #1 overall pick. A good hope would be he can repeat Alex Gordon's career (#2 overall pick, was a bit above average his age 23 and 24 seasons, then had 2 bad injury-plagued years, then came back with his best career year with a 6 WAR season and 21 WAR over 4 years).
  10. DataNerd
    Looking back at Enlow, I wonder if he wouldn't be nearly as well regarded with today's data/knowledge. Scouts loved his curveball, but he didn't have elite spinrates on it. Not that you absolutely need them to succeed, but he was only facing HS hitters and never got the whiffs that an elite curveball should. Velo also didn't develop nearly as hoped
  11. DataNerd
    Offensively, Mendez is checking every single box there is. BB/K, Exit Velos, traditional stats, chase/whiff. His worst Statcast stat at AAA is Barrel%, which is 76th percentile. You could probably make a strong argument for him being a top 100 guy even with the huge defensive questions. Klein should be moved to a 1 inning role to see how much he get get the fastball up to. Doesn't get high spinrates, and the fastball as it is likely won't be enough to be more than an average pitch.
  12. DataNerd
    Amick's K rate is a huge red flag and he's probably a 1B long-term, but he has consistently been a good hitter. Mendez had an adjustment period (only having 120wRC+) at AA adjusting the approach for more power, and is now dominating AAA. Might want to get him some more time at 1B to get the bat in the lineup.
  13. DataNerd
    1B is the easiest position for a player to learn. Clemens never played 1B until AAA in 2021 and was above-average playing the position in MLB in 2022.
  14. DataNerd
    A couple weeks ago, it would have been hard to think of our bullpen winning games, but here we are. I'm enjoying it while it lasts. Travis Adams has been solid, probably has pitched well enough to keep him with the big league club for the time being. Hopefully not the guy who gets send down for Bradley
  15. DataNerd
    Diaw is 3 years older than Tait, doesn't have near the exit velos that Tait has. IMO he's a top 30 guy, but nowhere near the prospect Tait is.
  16. DataNerd
    Hidalgo's fastball looks legit. 96-97mph, 19"IVB. Disappointed with Langenberg. 91-92mph fastball, down 1mph from 2 years ago at Fort Myers. At 24, probably should move him to a 1 inning role to see what the fastball can get up to, would be surprised if it was playable currently. Kolten Smith up to 39Ks in 23.2IP. 4.18 ERA/1.47 FIP, 93mph 17"IVB, Slider has a whiff rate around 50%
  17. DataNerd
    No really going to fault Shelton for bullpen management when there really aren't any reliable options. Bullpen is 26th in WPA, which is better than its 28th place ERA.
  18. DataNerd
    If Mendez could be a decent defensive LF, he might be a top 100 guy now. The bar at 1B is high, which is his probable home. Looking at the best 1B from 2021-2026, only Yandy Diaz is running an ISO below .200 (and its at .159). Mendez has an ISO of .181 this year between AA and AAA, last year was .140. He can definitely make it work, but if the power doesn't come the ceiling is more like the mediocre 1B that you can sign for 1yr/10M every offseason
  19. DataNerd
    The draft is in July, so I would be shocked if they had that intel. I doubt the Rays internally know what they are doing currently; it would be pretty dumb to make that decision without seeing how Lackey finishes the year, what the money is for different guys. The Rays have taken a HS hitter with either a 1st or a CB-A pick in the 2021 through 2025 drafts, so people are much more willing to mock them that demo even if the eval for Lackey and Emerson are close. But it's just guessing at this point
  20. DataNerd
    IMO Houston already is. Quick will be if he continues to dominate A+, and after that I don't see who is next (besides whoever we take at 3, who will likely start as a top 50). DeBarge/Young both being misses hurts here, you would hope for one of them to be knocking on the top 100 door.
  21. DataNerd
    Mitrovich up to 9 innings with 0ER in A, 4H 3BB 14K. Fastball was 93 with 19"IVB, changeup only had 2 and has been missing bats. Mercedes continuing to hit, and in the SSS at CR has a sub 20 K%. Easy plus power and speed, hopefully he figured something out this offseason and this isn't just a hot stretch.
  22. DataNerd
    Big change on the curveball is not only being slower, but it is a considerably more horizontal pitch than last year. In 25, the slider and the curveball had the same amount of horizontal break, while in 26 the curve has 6 inches more. 2025: 3.6 Horiz/-7.6 Vert 2026: 10.0 Horiz/-11.0 Vert.
  23. DataNerd
    As bad as he's been, Wallner is only tied for 2nd worst position players amongst fWAR. Cedric Mullins (.150/.204/.228) ranks the worst, and Ke'Bryan Hayes (.136/.191/.223) is tied with Wallner (.167/.259/.292) due to solid defense and 25 less PAs.
  24. DataNerd
    His curveball has looked good all of this year. Considerably slower and more horizontal movement than last year
  25. DataNerd
    Struggled in Rk for a season, then thrived. Struggled in A for a season, then thrived. This is going to be a big test for him to see if he can not flounder initially in a new level. Could be a top 10 org guy if he continues to hit in CR, won't be a top 20 guy if he hits .200 there.
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