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DataNerd

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Everything posted by DataNerd

  1. DataNerd
    I don't think trust is the right word, but we are not currently a great team and hoping these guys turn out is easily our best shot at being a WS team in the next few years.
  2. DataNerd
    Last year the best FA catcher was Realmuto who signed for 3/45. He was 34 coming off a 2.0/1.9/2.0 previous 3 seasons WAR, Jeffers is 29 and has 1.6/2.1/2.6 (which would have been 3+ if he stayed healthy and played his usual 120G rather than 90). I'd bet Jeffers gets more than Realmuto did, the main question being if he gets 3 or 4 years.
  3. DataNerd
    I don't have serious concerns about that. Right now we are having problems from the 23 pitching draft being an absolute stinker and trading away Hill from the 24 draft, but the 22 draft was really good (Prielipp, Morris, Matthews and we only signed 8 pitchers) and the 25 draft looks good currently. We don't have a ton of SP under contract for 28, but we also have a ton of money freeing up that year (Lopez, Hoffman, Caratini are $32M, Ryan/Kremer/Ober currently estimated for a combined $26M, and looking I'm guessing around $5-10M will be spent on arb increases on guys we keep). The SP problem isn't as large when $48M is coming off the books to address it.
  4. DataNerd
    I think it would be a horrible decision not to extend it, I think Jeffers doesn't accept and I'm happier if he does than doesn't. Guys of his caliber don't sign 1 year deals, so lots of people will compare how much he's worth to a guy getting the same amount on a 3/4 year deal.
  5. DataNerd
    The Brewers have some really good pitchers taken later in the draft (Miz, Burns, and ironically Drew Rasmussen now on the Rays) but their hitting picks have been much more average. Turang is the only 1st rounder in the past decade who has become a star, and he came in a 4 year stretch where they completely whiffed on their other 3 picks. I'm not sure the Rays are even that good at drafting. My modeling has their 2 most valuable players drafted the last 10 years being, and I'm not joking, Joe Ryan and Taj Bradley. It's easy to just say that the best teams are better at everything, but there are plenty of ways to build a team. IMO the draft is the area the Twins are the strongest at but nobody builds a championship contender solely through the draft.
  6. DataNerd
    He walked 12.6% of the time this year, not that much less than his minors walk rate. The issue is he doesn't hit the ball hard.
  7. DataNerd
    This is Mitch Garver erasure
  8. DataNerd
    Carson Kelly will likely decline his mutual option, and he would be solid option as well.
  9. DataNerd
    The only way to really mess this up is to keep all of the expirings and deciding not to re-sign any of them. Trade one of them and we can easily re-sign at least one of them, potentially 2 and this isn't an issue. Current arb estimates, assuming we keep Ober, has the 4 making $44.5M next year. Even with our payroll situation and assuming no salary floor changing that, we can still easily retain one.
  10. DataNerd
    The main improvement is he started pulling the ball in the air more. He had the 12th most pulled FBs in baseball last year, after being 91st in 25 (8.2% of PAs in 26, 5.7% in 25). Every single player does significantly better than their expected stats on pulled flyballs, so I would expect xwOBA to underrate him, the question is how much.
  11. DataNerd
    I'm not planning on Buxton/ERod/Jenkins all being healthy for more than a month unfortunately.
  12. DataNerd
    Clemens had been above-average at 2B before this year, and 3 OAA/RAA isn't much, that can just be a couple bad plays. 1 FRV in 994 career IP at 2B is solid for a utility guy.
  13. DataNerd
    Yep, we saw this with Austin Martin where moving an athletic guy to the OF resulted in him being horrible in 24, average in 25 and above average in 26 (despite being a bit slower this year). Keaschall is faster than Martin was as well, and even with a bottom 5 OF arm should be able to be above-average in LF.
  14. DataNerd
    In terms of hitter/pitcher in a vacuum I would disagree; of the top 20 SP by fWAR, 4 were taken top 10 and another 3 were later 1st round picks, while there were 6 guys taken outside the top 100 (Schlitter, Cease, Skubal, Rasmussen, deGrom, Woo). But we are average at drafting/developing hitters, so it could make sense to lean into our strength in a draft where we weren't passing up on a guy like Lackey.
  15. DataNerd
    Yep. I've done some experimental analysis that puts us 6th in value from drafted pitchers since 21 and we've spent the 16th most capital on pitchers and 8th in getting value from picks. Our pitching issues have come from (1) horrible development of international players and (2) we basically never get good pitchers in FA. We also haven't had a guy get drafted an become an absolute stud, but we've had plenty of solid players despite not spending firsts on pitchers.
  16. DataNerd
    Does anyone feel confident in Buxton/Jenkins/ERod's ability to stay healthy? We need to be prepared for the scenario for an OF next year with none of those guys, and Roden easily works there.
  17. DataNerd
    Only issue with that analysis is that isn't a 3 WAR player. That's a 5 WAR guy.
  18. DataNerd
    He has value as a DH/5th OF. His arb value is essentially the contract we gave Bell and Larnach was a much better hitter (123 wRC+ vs 106), isn't slow as dirt, and gives more defensive flexibility than Bell did. If we can get legit value for him I am completely open to a trade, but I'm not going to dump him just to dump him. We had 6 position players with >2 WAR and nobody between 1-2. We likely are losing Jeffers, I don't know why we would just give away another guy in that category. We could get a better DH, but I'd rather spend the money on RP and one of Lowe/Arraez/Chisholm
  19. DataNerd
    Lewis hasn't been near a good enough hitter to go into the year penciling him in at 1B. Clemens is a good UTIL, but he's not been a great defender (and been better in the OF than IF). Sign/Trade for a 1B & 2B, move Larnach to DH would bolster the offense.
  20. DataNerd
    Kremer is 100%. We gave up a legit prospect for him, and he's been a league-average pitcher for pretty much his entire career. The Larnach hate here is ridiculous. He ranked 41st in wRC+ against RHP for all hitters with at least 200PA against them, better than anybody except Buxton on the team. Trading him for some value is a solid option, but I would be shocked if he got non-tendered. Sands will likely tell us how the team feels about his arm health. He was really good in 24 and decent in 25, and is only 29 with 2 years left. At 1.1M, it's probably worth it to give it to him and gamble that the velo comes back, and if it doesn't it's not much of a $ loss.
  21. DataNerd
    Prielipp struggled against LHH, doesn't throw a sweeper and has an insane ability to spin a baseball. Easy choice to add a sweeper and continue his journey into being a lefty junkballer.
  22. DataNerd
    I currently would guess 90% chance we give him the QO and 80% chance he turns it down. He was producing at a 5 WAR pace this year, 4 years of being above-average and will still be 29 on opening day. Realmuto got 3/45 last offseason coming off a slightly worse 3 year span and being 4 years older at the time of FA.
  23. DataNerd
    This also gives you the option to trade him in May when some competitor gets the injury bug and is desperate for someone not awful.
  24. DataNerd
    All lottery teams (other than SF/PIT who can't pick above 10th) can pick #1.
  25. DataNerd
    I had him moving to the pen this year, and if (big one here) he gets healthy I still think he could become the top guy in the pen. First time through the order as a SP he has a 2.45 ERA/3.06 FIP (55IP). He has done a much better job of not walking guys in that span; 5.8% first time, 10.8% second time.
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