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DataNerd

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Everything posted by DataNerd

  1. DataNerd
    No really going to fault Shelton for bullpen management when there really aren't any reliable options. Bullpen is 26th in WPA, which is better than its 28th place ERA.
  2. DataNerd
    If Mendez could be a decent defensive LF, he might be a top 100 guy now. The bar at 1B is high, which is his probable home. Looking at the best 1B from 2021-2026, only Yandy Diaz is running an ISO below .200 (and its at .159). Mendez has an ISO of .181 this year between AA and AAA, last year was .140. He can definitely make it work, but if the power doesn't come the ceiling is more like the mediocre 1B that you can sign for 1yr/10M every offseason
  3. DataNerd
    The draft is in July, so I would be shocked if they had that intel. I doubt the Rays internally know what they are doing currently; it would be pretty dumb to make that decision without seeing how Lackey finishes the year, what the money is for different guys. The Rays have taken a HS hitter with either a 1st or a CB-A pick in the 2021 through 2025 drafts, so people are much more willing to mock them that demo even if the eval for Lackey and Emerson are close. But it's just guessing at this point
  4. DataNerd
    IMO Houston already is. Quick will be if he continues to dominate A+, and after that I don't see who is next (besides whoever we take at 3, who will likely start as a top 50). DeBarge/Young both being misses hurts here, you would hope for one of them to be knocking on the top 100 door.
  5. DataNerd
    Mitrovich up to 9 innings with 0ER in A, 4H 3BB 14K. Fastball was 93 with 19"IVB, changeup only had 2 and has been missing bats. Mercedes continuing to hit, and in the SSS at CR has a sub 20 K%. Easy plus power and speed, hopefully he figured something out this offseason and this isn't just a hot stretch.
  6. DataNerd
    Big change on the curveball is not only being slower, but it is a considerably more horizontal pitch than last year. In 25, the slider and the curveball had the same amount of horizontal break, while in 26 the curve has 6 inches more. 2025: 3.6 Horiz/-7.6 Vert 2026: 10.0 Horiz/-11.0 Vert.
  7. DataNerd
    As bad as he's been, Wallner is only tied for 2nd worst position players amongst fWAR. Cedric Mullins (.150/.204/.228) ranks the worst, and Ke'Bryan Hayes (.136/.191/.223) is tied with Wallner (.167/.259/.292) due to solid defense and 25 less PAs.
  8. DataNerd
    His curveball has looked good all of this year. Considerably slower and more horizontal movement than last year
  9. DataNerd
    Struggled in Rk for a season, then thrived. Struggled in A for a season, then thrived. This is going to be a big test for him to see if he can not flounder initially in a new level. Could be a top 10 org guy if he continues to hit in CR, won't be a top 20 guy if he hits .200 there.
  10. DataNerd
    I don't get why this works, but it has. 10 balls in play at >40 LA, 7Ks, 0BBs will work any day.
  11. DataNerd
    I'm guessing they take whichever of the top 3 are available. Lombard has been getting some buzz for both the Twins and Rays; tons of upside and he would save a significant amount to play around with day 1.
  12. DataNerd
    Screaming reliever to me. A bit wild, and the fastball is decent at 93mph/17.5"IVB, but with only being 23 and a starter, could probably be 96mph/19"IVB out of the pen in a year or two. Secondaries seem solid enough to work if the fastball is an above average pitch. I'd probably keep him as a starter the rest of the year at least. Doesn't need to be added to the 40 man for the 26 R5 draft, and maybe the stuff improves enough heading into 27 that he is a starter project.
  13. DataNerd
    I don't think Rojas has shown that he is ready, but neither has the majority of our current bullpen
  14. DataNerd
    Walker JenkinsEmmanuel RodriguezKaelen CulpepperConnor PrielippMarek Houston Underrated, has made consistent hard contact at WF and in pro ball, and with the defense can afford to run a slightly-elevated strikeout rate.Eduardo TaitRiley QuickDasan HillAndrew MorrisKendry RojasGabriel Gonzalez High chase rate dings him, doesn't have the defense/speed/power to play if the hit tool isn't 60 and the chase rate makes that hard.Charlee SotoBrandon WinokurBruin Agbayani 12BB/3K in 50PA for an 18/19 year old in A ball is impressive. Defense and power are questions, but the hit tool looks great.James EllwangerHendry MendezAdrian Bohorquez If he starts throwing more strikes he could easily be top 10 by end of year.Billy AmickRyan GallagherKyle DeBarge
  15. DataNerd
    Fort Myers has a few hitters looking good. Mercedes is finally figuring out A ball. Pena continues to rarely strike out while doing a better job of getting hits. Ramiro Dominguez has a 158wRC+, a .273 ISO with 9BB/10K. And Agbayani finally struck out, between this year and last has 14BB/5K
  16. DataNerd
    35th percentile in chase rate, 38th in zone swing rate. Also has not been great on inside pitches. He still makes a lot of hard contact, and improving plate discipline should help that.
  17. DataNerd
    @Brock BeauchampCould you add Bruin Agbayani?
  18. DataNerd
    Imagine being worse than this
  19. DataNerd
    SSS but Agbayani really has looked impressive. Including last year, 8K%/25BB% in 36PA. Houston showing a lot more pop, hitting way more line drives and pulling the ball more (bad day to stumble across this as he hits an oppo homer). Want the strikeouts to be lower, but this looks like a guy who could hit 12-15 HR and have a .120 ISO, which with his defense will be fine.
  20. DataNerd
    Ober is going to be a case study in pitcher evaluation. No idea why this is working. He got a whiff on an 86mph fastball in the zone.
  21. DataNerd
    Looking back at MLB.com writeup on Quick Yeah, he's fixed that. Outside of the top 4 college pitchers taken in last years draft (picks 2, 3, 5, and 11), he's looked like the next best one.
  22. DataNerd
    From an individual hit ball perspective, once the exit velocity gets above 95mph, the OPS for all balls hit at a certain speed increases significantly as exit velocity increases. On a per-player basis, while not necessary (see Brian Dozier), it is a lot easier for guys who hit the ball hard to significantly increase their HR totals than guys who don't. For prospects, guys with really high exit velocities but without a ton of HRs have often turned that power into HRs later in their career. Probably the most famous is Judge, who before his 52HR rookie season had only ever hit 23HR in a single season, but going back to college and in the minors showed a ton of ability to hit the ball hard. Last year, ERod only had 6HR in 267PA, but he had high exit velocities. He currently has 6 in 97 this year. Tait and Jenkins both have really high exit velocities, so they both could be guys who have significantly more power in the future than they show currently.
  23. DataNerd
    Ryan's fastball has been one of the best pitches in baseball (last year it had the 16th highest run value above average for all pitches), but there is a big question of how much of that is due to the stuff, and how much of that is due to him being able to locate it at the top of the zone consistently. I've done some pitch modeling and looked at others, and STUFF models don't really like Ryan's fastball when you just give it velo/movement, but when you also put location it models as a great pitch.
  24. DataNerd
    Outman is an easy send down. Yes, he would have to be put through waivers, but I doubt that anyone would claim him and put him on their MLB roster.
  25. DataNerd
    Prielipp needs to improve his control, but the slider being this good has been bailing his control out. Really no ceiling on him, all depends on how well he can locate his stuff. Not sure that Morris is good for more than a couple of innings right now. Not ready to move him to the pen full time at 24, but our pen really is bad so he'll probably get some more run before returning to St Paul. Wallner over Martin in the lineup is just pathetic at this point. Are they waiting for Wallner's OPS to fall below Martin's OBP?
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