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DataNerd

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Everything posted by DataNerd

  1. DataNerd
    Martin is a good platoon OF, and we have a ton of LHH OF for him to platoon with here and in St Paul. He's also had a 127 wRC+ in July and 115 in August, so why would we be sending him down? For LHH OFs, we have Larnach, Jenkins, Roden, ERod, Mendez. Martin has a 137 wRC+ against LHP. Our only other RHH guys are Buxton (who is starting when healthy) and Keaschall (who is starting if he can play defense and hasn't actually been better against LHP than RHP). Martin is a great fit for this roster.
  2. DataNerd
    The big reason that he is overperforming his xwOBA is that he pulls the ball in the air alot, and balls pulled in the air significantly outperform their xwOBA (0.621 xwOBA, 0.877 wOBA for the league as a whole). He has had a lot of HRs pulled down the line that have low xwOBA even though they would be a HR at almost if not every park. These balls don't get classed as barrels because the exit velo isn't enough, but they are consistantly going out of the park. While he should overperform, I'm not sure if he can do it at this level. The big question is if the number of HRs right down the line is noise or if it is a skill.
  3. DataNerd
    Tinney is striking out too much for my liking. 32% (same that Sabato did at A, although his was over 367 PA rather than 44 and not during his draft year, and he's walking more and showing more power).
  4. DataNerd
    The only reason that we would trade Ryan in the offseason would be the same reason that the Brewers traded Peralta; some team decided to massively overpay for him.
  5. DataNerd
    They aren't going to call him up for him to start 3 times a week.
  6. DataNerd
    He's legit, consensus 11-20 in the org. Fastball gets good movement but only averages 93, cutter/changeup/slider all have been solid but unspectacular at missing bats. He looks more like a back of the rotation starter, could be mid-rotation if the fastball ticks up, imo probably heads to the pen to get that velocity and becomes a 7th inning guy
  7. DataNerd
    Lee has a 1.5 fWAR, 99 wRC+ and -0.7 runs DEF, has been average at 3B and is 25. I'm nowhere close to giving up on Lee, he's a cheap average player.
  8. DataNerd
    All 3 trades looked like slight overpays, but that seemed true for almost everyone buying this deadline: the options were to overpay or stay on the sidelines. Given how early the Kramer trade happened, they likely targeted him specifically. It looks like the worst deal currently, but if they are able to get him back to the 25 version the deal would be a big win.
  9. DataNerd
    Incredibly low. Publications in general are way too low on recently drafted players and are hesitant to rank them highly until they hit well in the minors, and are slow to move up the guys who really hit well. Marek Houston is pretty much repeating what Culpepper did, and is a higher draft pick and better fielder, but Culpepper is 26 and Houston is 90. IMO, I have Houston above Culpepper (and I really like Culpepper)
  10. DataNerd
    With his arm, he would be a better 3B than 2B; however, KC at 2B and Lee at 3B is much better than switching them around, and KC would be an above-average 2B.
  11. DataNerd
    The offense in the PCL is insane, so that line is good enough for an 82 wRC+. The league ERA is 5.5. So no, I would not be happy if Houston hit like that in AAA
  12. DataNerd
    1 more year, they are paying for some portion of it.
  13. DataNerd
    Pena has been a worse version of Arraez in the low minors. Makes a ton of contact, no pop. Main difference is that Pena has long periods where he is hitting .240 while Arraez never hit below .298 at a level with more than 100PAs.
  14. DataNerd
    Neto is a great player (better than I think most of the comments currently have) and is only 25, but the prospects at SS are a huge strength so I don't like trading assets to make that better (and don't want to trade Houston/Culpepper when we are a game under 500).
  15. DataNerd
    I would be shocked if he is up by the end of the year. He needs consistant PAs and doesn't need to be added to the 40 man. Also with a potential lockout and very little upper minors experience, he is a guy I would want to be playing next year. On the call-up, he was insane in A+ in Jun, with a 193 wRC+ and a 24BB%/10K%, .408/.537/.592 triple slash. His July AA numbers weren't at that level--only a 164 wRC+.
  16. DataNerd
    Barr showing why some people were really high on him going into the draft. He gets a ton of spin on the ball and is only 20. Didn't throw a single changeup which is a bit concerning, but there is plenty to like.
  17. DataNerd
    He has 45 PA this year, and in SSS the BB/K is much better than last year. Good players have stretches this long where they are negative players.
  18. DataNerd
    100%. In-Zone contact rate of 78%, 26th percentile in AAA. Mashes fastballs and changeups when he connects, but is atrocious against breaking pitches.
  19. DataNerd
    The FSL as a whole has been successful on 76% of their SB attempts, so Lackey was above average game 1
  20. DataNerd
    We definitely would take back the Varland trade right now, but we are way ahead in the Jax trade and the Duran trade is up in the air (Tait looks much worse, Abel much better). I'm happy with what we got for those 3 as a whole, and I'm not sure there was a way to know that Varland would break out while Jax would regress.
  21. DataNerd
    Really the only thing that Jenkins is really struggling with is he doesn't pull the ball in the air much. This makes him appear worse because you have a bunch of AAAA guys who are able to pull the ball against pitchers who aren't good enough to sniff an MLB bullpen that inflate the run environment making high average-low power hitters look worse.
  22. DataNerd
    Probably a little high on the price for what I would like (although that is probably more due to me being high on Agbayani), but it's a solid move. Being this early in the deadline, we definitely targeted Minter for some reason, hopefully that works out.
  23. DataNerd
    With Adley on the IL currently, their 2 catchers have wRC+ of 36 and -13 for the season. Rogers' 61 is an upgrade, but there is no way this is anything more than trying to get someone not atrocious.
  24. DataNerd
    Beck is the type of guy that we should be going for as a throw in. He's 27 and questionable if he can stick at RP, but our BP depth is nonexistent so we have innings to see if he can figure it out.
  25. DataNerd
    Yankees don't want Larnach. They have a left-handed DH, 2 left-handed starting OF and Judge who will never be benched in the playoffs. They are desperate for guys who can hit LHP, which Larnach absolutely can't do. It's also why they really want Jeffers because he can DH against RHP when he isn't catching.
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