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DataNerd

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Everything posted by DataNerd

  1. DataNerd
    Often curveballs are just as good against opposite handed hitters, and sometimes even better than same. It's currently SSS, but he has a significantly higher whiff rate against RHH (38.6%) vs LHH (23.5%), and it has had a positive run value against RHH and negative against LHH. His slider has also been above-average to RHH. The main problem is that fastball has been awful to them. Poor extension takes off about 1mph from the fastball, and it doesn't have good movement.
  2. DataNerd
    If Prielipp had a normal development path, he probably adds a curveball his So or Jr year of college. The advantage of taking high spinrate pitchers is that they often are able to just add a good, or in this case elite, pitch from scratch.
  3. DataNerd
    Walker Jenkins Needs to start making business decisions to stay healthy.Kaelen Culpepper Still underrated IMO. 5 tool player.Marek Houston Houston over ERod is more about Houston. I think he would be a top 50.Emmanuel Rodriguez Healthy ERod is #1 or #2.Riley Quick Great stuff, need to see how he adjusts to a long season.Kendry Rojas Massive ceiling if he can figure some things else, more likely looking like a dominant bullpen arm. Control and injuries keep him from being a Top 100 guy.Eduardo Tait Feels like a good backup/mediocre starting C that hits .200 with power. Upside is immense.Hendry Mendez Bat looks legit, but being a 1B/DH doesn't give him much room for error.Dasan Hill Will be a stud if he improves his control, but at it's current spot it is unplayable.Charlee Soto I'll have a better opinion after he's been pitching for 2-3 weeks.Brandon Winokur Making improvements, but not making the leap. Raw power often develops into game power late, and he has plenty of it.Ryan Gallagher Solid but unspectacular secondaries, and decent but not great command. Fastball has good movement, but probably needs it to be higher than its current 93 to work. If he can't add more velo in the offseason, he probably needs to get it by moving to the pen.Gabriel Gonzalez Makes good contact, but not a fan of the rest of his game.Khadim Diaw Has consistently hit in the minors, but power and fielding concerns put pressure on the bat. Being a C and OF gives him potentially a unique role for a utility player.James Ellwanger 95 with great extension, get good spin on both a cutter and curveball, kills spin on the changeup. Had control issues in college which holds him down for now, but the stuff looks good enough for MLB.Adrian Bohorquez Similar to Hill, but with a worse changeup and a year older.Yasser Mercedes Has been slow to adjust to every promotion, but still has a great speed/power combination at 21.Bruin Agbayani Not a toolsy HS pick, but he has 16:6 BB:K in Fort Myers. Eye/Contact is enough to go in at this range.Jhomnardo Reyes Extreme risk/reward. Can hit it hard, hasn't faced good enough pitchers to know if he can hit.CJ Culpepper Throws a weird fastball that has been solid, and an assortment of breaking balls that are individually decent.
  4. DataNerd
    Houston seems to have figured A+ ball out. 23 BB%/11 K% in June. With the glove and being a solid hitter in college, I don't see the argument against Houston being a Top 100 guy. Quick hasn't been as dominant in A+, but he's still striking a bunch of guys out. With the lack of college innings, it might be more reasonable for timeline to be late 27/early 28 for his debut. Mitrovich had a rough inning, but continues to get whiffs on the changeup and has the fastball velocity not losing too much later on. Slider needs work, but it's a good base to start from.
  5. DataNerd
    Go back to 2018, and you had Lewis, Nick Gordon, and Wander Javier all being the SS of the future
  6. DataNerd
    Add on the fact that Keaschall has an 86th percentile sprint speed, and he should be able to be well above-average in a corner and playable in CF. Martin has made significant improvements once he moved to outfield full time, and he isn't as fast a Keaschall is. Also add on that 1B may be needed for Lewis, and that he wouldn't be able to play anywhere else.
  7. DataNerd
    Houston singled in each of the first 5 innings, then grounded out in the 6th. Wonder what is the most consecutive innings a player got a hit
  8. DataNerd
    I'm not huge on drafting a catcher this high, but I'm also thinking that Lackey might be the best guy in the draft. The bat is good enough to consider taking him at 3 if he was a 3B. Not sure that I would take him over Cholowsky/Emerson, but easily would over anyone else.
  9. DataNerd
    An area the Quick vs Yesavage comp fails is Yesavage had 2 full college years as a starter with a 2.03 ERA in 93.1 IP his Jr year, while Quick only had 1, 62 IP 3.92 ERA. Quick has all the upside that Yesavage had, but he was much less of a complete package, which was why he went much later. Yesavage would have also gone higher if not concern for him having a collapsed lung late his Jr year.
  10. DataNerd
    Not close to giving up on Morris, but he could use some time in St Paul to mess with the secondaries. He gets a decent amount of spin to where he should be able to get a breaking ball that will work with the Fastball
  11. DataNerd
    He was a good base stealer in college (was tied for 7th in steals in the ACC his Jr year, with a 19 SB/ 2 CS season), and currently is in a 7 way tie for 21st in A+. He's going to be an asset as a baserunner, but probably should only expect 10-20 SB with good efficiency in the majors. Kane Kepley (Cubs 2025 2nd round pick, CF from UNC with 70 Speed) has 32 SB to 1 CS at the level. Last year Kendall George (LAD OF with 70 Speed) had 100 SB and 24 CS. In 2012 Billy Hamilton had 104 in 82 games. Houston's SB totals are much more aligned with a 55-60 speed grade
  12. DataNerd
    Both first round SS have been looking real good in June so far. IMO both should be promoted now. Culpepper: 1.040 OPS, 5 BB/1 K Houston: 1.063 OPS, 8 BB/3 K
  13. DataNerd
    I don't see much separation between the top 3, but I just don't get the fascination that Law has with Bell. He seems to view his shoulder injury as a positive rather than a long-term concern.
  14. DataNerd
    $4M for an average-ish player with some utility is a steal. Not sure that he remains at that level and I'm not opposed to dealing him if someone else gives enough, but he's easily worth more than $4M.
  15. DataNerd
    With him recently being on waivers and us paying some money to jump in line for him, I don't think there is another team that was really wanting him enough to blow us away.
  16. DataNerd
    Glad to see I'm not the only one on the Mitrovich train. On Quick, here is how the college pitchers after the top 4 have fared (15) Witherspoon, 5.05 ERA, 24K%/13BB% in A+ (23) Wood, 3.42 ERA, 38K%/11B% in A (26IP), 2.45 ERA 32K%/2BB% in AA (11 IP) (29) Forbes, only thrown 2.1IP since being drafted (33) Phillips, 7.62 ERA 25K%/16BB% in A+ (36) Quick, 3.98 ERA, 38K%/11B% in A+ (40) Root 1.50 ERA, 38K%/12BB% in A+ (45) Middleton 4.95 ERA, 19K%/14BB% in A (47) Shores, 5.06 ERA, 34K%/13BB% in A+ Quick has been striking out hitters at A+ at as high of a rate as any other pitcher in this range. Wood has significant injury/mechanics and reliever concerns, and Root's fastball gives concerns on how well it will play against better hitters. Quick also pitched less in college than most of the group as well
  17. DataNerd
    Wichita really doesn't have many guys who are legitimate prospects. Amick has been solid, DeBarge is disappointing, and then a whole lot of meh. Houston's stats were worse in May than April, but he cut the K% from 24% to 18%. With the defense he has, along with being a positive baserunner (15/16 on SB this year), he only needs to be an average hitter to be a really valuable player and could be a solid starter while being a bit below average. Early returns from June have it down to 10%, which probably won't stick there but are a good sign he is still making progress.
  18. DataNerd
    If you had Austin Martin's arm being the difference in this game, go play the lottery. Bullpen playing solid. Adams got hit around a bit, but he didn't walk anybody up by 3 so I'm a lot less annoyed about today. Matthews, who throughout his career has seemed to have worse results than he should, has a start where he has much better ones than he should have.
  19. DataNerd
    At 3, I am fully on board with any of Roch/Emerson/Lackey. Flora hasn't been dominant enough for me to take him over those guys; 33 K%, while Skenes had 45% and Chase Burns had 49%, both in better conferences. Not enough upside to take the risk of injury that comes with pitching. Would be a fan of that pick at 43. Don't know a ton about the names, but a high upside bat/arm is good with me. Not a big fan of the last 2 picks together and doesn't seem like the guys the FO goes after in this area. We have taken high upside low flow arms each of the last 5 drafts, which works well when you can hit on low end starters and relievers with later picks.
  20. DataNerd
    That's a big issue at the lower levels, but the guys who that applies to tend to be college pitchers who are able to locate poor stuff fairly well. Hill hasn't done that, and has better velo/spin than anyone else in the system in A/A+ other than Quick. He has the stuff to succeed in the majors, but not the stuff to be wild and succeed.
  21. DataNerd
    The early returns for the 2025 late-round pitchers have been great, probably rivaling that of the 2022 class after year 1 (Zebby, Culpepper, Lewis). Mitrovich/Hilker/Moring/Smith all have shown some positive traits that with future development could lead to being good MLB pitchers. Need to remember that of the 2022 trio, Zebby was the least-regarded of them after their first full year, and that the hit rate of the four will probably be low. But it is a lot better than previous years have been, and a return to form for the biggest strength of the FO.
  22. DataNerd
    Martin had huge platoon splits last year as well, so it isn't as if this is something new. If one of Wallner/Roden/Jenkins/ERod was available/not awful, he probably doesn't get nearly as many PAs against RHP and the overall results look much better. He's a valuable guy to pair with Larnach, who is a below-replacement level player against LHP but hits righties well. While Martin is the short side of the platoon, there aren't enough guys like him in the league for as many guys who can't hit lefties to platoon them all, so he has value.
  23. DataNerd
    Lewis isn't fast and hasn't played much outfield. He would currently be horrific in CF, and if we are going to move an IF to the OF it would be Keaschall.
  24. DataNerd
    He's just shy of 27 and has a career wRC+ of 104, and he has the tools that made him a #1 overall pick. A good hope would be he can repeat Alex Gordon's career (#2 overall pick, was a bit above average his age 23 and 24 seasons, then had 2 bad injury-plagued years, then came back with his best career year with a 6 WAR season and 21 WAR over 4 years).
  25. DataNerd
    Looking back at Enlow, I wonder if he wouldn't be nearly as well regarded with today's data/knowledge. Scouts loved his curveball, but he didn't have elite spinrates on it. Not that you absolutely need them to succeed, but he was only facing HS hitters and never got the whiffs that an elite curveball should. Velo also didn't develop nearly as hoped
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