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DataNerd

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Everything posted by DataNerd

  1. DataNerd
    Fastball gets hit hard and doesn't miss many bats. Changeup has been awful. Slider/Curveball both miss bats, when hitters chase, but when they don't and he gets behind in the count or in full counts he doesn't have a pitch he can throw in the zone. Reason a move to the bullpen is appealing is that his fastball at 97-98 would be a good pitch to pound the zone and then get Ks with the breaking stuff.
  2. DataNerd
    His cost is not in that ballpark. He had a 2.70 ERA/3.64 FIP last year, this year is 4.66/4.38. It's also only half a year rather than a full year. They also overpaid for him at the time, which is why the Mets are the 2nd to worst team in the NL--their FO is one of if not the worst in baseball
  3. DataNerd
    We are 49-51, trading anyone on this list is a mistake at this point. This is a middling team and trading major assets when you are on the upswing on a middling team is a mistake due to being impatient. If we want to use prospects to improve the team, wait until the offseason where the guys we want will be cheaper
  4. DataNerd
    Historically the top of the draft is the least efficient way to get pitching WAR (as a fraction of what you would get for a hitter) and Flora was nowhere near as dominant as Skenes/Burns were. Past the 30s/40s you lose much less by taking pitching.
  5. DataNerd
    A rental SP makes more sense than one with control. Ryan/Bradley are under control, for next year, same with Zebby/Ober/Prielipp (question being if they are good enough to start), and we get Abel/Pablo back from injury. Trading major assets to attempt a playoff run when you are 49-50 with a 32% chance to make the playoffs (FanGraphs) because the owner wants to make a splash is the type of thing that stupid orgs do. If we can't afford to pay for players, we definitely can't afford to be stupid.
  6. DataNerd
    I don't think either of those trades with the Angels is even close to what it would cost. Soriano has been a slightly above average pitcher and has 2 more years of control and you aren't even offering a top 100 guy. Detmers probably can't be done without giving up Jenkins or Culpepper+borderline T100 guy.
  7. DataNerd
    He turns 26 in September and is in AA. I'm not sure he makes the top 50
  8. DataNerd
    The top of the system is incredibly strong: I'm not sure another team can match Jenkins/Culpepper/Lackey/Houston (I'm very high on both SS compared to the media). Really lacking in 2nd tier players though
  9. DataNerd
    21-22 were from TJ, then 23-24 were from not healing properly from it. In 20 the season got cut and he has been fine in 25-26. It's not been the case where he just keeps injuring his arm with different things every year. He has gotten killed by having his injuries at the worst time in the year where he misses more than a year from them.
  10. DataNerd
    Love the quick writeups. Will immediately caveat my thoughts with I haven't really watched these guys play. Lackey was the obvious pick, and I'm not going to give the FO any credit for this pick if it works or, nor any blame if it doesn't. On player development yes, but not for drafting. I have to assume the Twins feel better about Tinney's defense at C than the media does to take him here. Wachsmann feels even a bit more boom-bust than Hill did when drafted. Velo and spinrates are both borderline elite, but not as much present development. They seem to be drafting a lot of plus fastballs and hoping they can develop the rest of the arsenal. We'll see how it works out.
  11. DataNerd
    On lots of pitchers struggling to throw strikes, the Midwest league as a whole has forgotten how to throw strikes (typically having a BB% between 9-11 but is a bit above 13 this year). Riley Quick has been well above-average (4.14 ERA, the league's is 5.3, about a full run above last year's). There is something with the league that is different this year that is causing way more walks and runs.
  12. DataNerd
    That has been their track record since Boras/Jenkins held the Twins up for more money. Teams don't want players knowing how much money is available, especially would be the case with Wachsmann where he could just demand any leftover money (not going into the overage) and probably would get it.
  13. DataNerd
    Agree with the general take, but I'm much more on the fence with him. There is still time before the deadline to either make up ground or fall back. We also need to see what the available offers are; getting a top 20 prospect is going to make it much easier to pull the trigger than if you aren't even getting top 50 guys back, and we don't know what offers actually will exist.
  14. DataNerd
    For all of the pessimism about any chance of there being a Ryan extension, we currently only have $22M guaranteed money for 2028, and if the new CBA has a cap floor there is a good chance we have to have a higher payroll then we currently do. The only guys who will be hitting FA by 28 will be Jeffers/Caratini (which likely aren't targets for a big deal due to Lackey) Lopez (could definately see him getting a deal, but unless he pitches really well next year will be for less money than currently) and Bell/Ober/Larnach (who we may not even want). If we are forced to have a $150M payroll, we could extend Ryan and still would be required to spend more.
  15. DataNerd
    Houston has nowhere near Turner's power but is a better defender. My comp would be Dansby Swanson with half a grade more hit but a full grade less power.
  16. DataNerd
    You still see that in hitting, but pitching is more of a size game, and the Twins love projectible college starters.
  17. DataNerd
    3 Straight college hitters rounds 11 through 13. Pretty clear that they don't think they have much extra bonus money, otherwise would have seen someone more interesting in the 11th.
  18. DataNerd
    I wouldn't be surprised if that is the case. However, Raab was a R-SR so he is done.
  19. DataNerd
    All of the picks so far appear to be saving a bit of money, with the Lay pick saving a good chunk. Wondering if they go for an overslot guy in the 11th (where it is less damaging if you can't sign them because there is no money attached to the pick) or if Wachsmann is the only overslot guy in the draft for us.
  20. DataNerd
    This fits the Falvey MO of getting 1 pitcher with front of the rotation upside. Like taking HS pitchers in this range At the combine, hit 100.0 mph and 2916 RPM. Probably would be higher on the consensus board if the combine was earlier in the cycle. Also probably the only overslot guy that we are taking.
  21. DataNerd
    Like taking college arms in this range of the draft. Haven't heard of him until today, but I am a fan of the demo here.
  22. DataNerd
    From a team-building perspective, I don't like the pick. You now have 1 elite and 1 good C prospect, and 43 is a good spot to take shots at top pitching without giving up lots of expected value. Would have preferred Edwards/Blair/Mendes. My toy draft model really liked him though.
  23. DataNerd
    Maybe someone else has a better memory, but this seems like more of a bullpen pick than Falvey ever made this early. Wonder if this is them having a strong belief that he can start, or if this is a difference between Falvey and Zoll. Personally don't have an issue taking a likely BP arm round 4, especially when the velo is already there rather than projection.
  24. DataNerd
    There are 4 options with Jeffers: Trade, keep and let go as a FA, keep and offer the QO, and keep and extend. This kills a Jeffers extension, since he would probably get at least 3 years and Lackey is probably a better player in 2029 than Jeffers. It's questionable that he is worth the QO, so it now boils down keeping him for 3 months or getting some value for those 3 months.
  25. DataNerd
    Yes, but it depends somewhat on the league. The big outlier is the A+ leagues, where the Midwest League has had its 3 highest run/9 months, and the South Atlantic League which has had its #1, 2, and 5 (all of this going back to 2005). In both cases the highest month easily cleared the pre-2026 record (6.00 vs 5.65 and 6.12 vs 5.76). It's a great theory and a common complaint, but looking at the extreme A+ leagues, there wasn't an upwards trend in scoring post 2020 before this year. If you remove this year's data, the trend is actually a slight decrease in run scoring. There is something that is different in those leagues this year. I'm guessing that's why Quick quickly got out of there, to get to a more normal environment.
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