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DataNerd

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Everything posted by DataNerd

  1. DataNerd
    From a team-building perspective, I don't like the pick. You now have 1 elite and 1 good C prospect, and 43 is a good spot to take shots at top pitching without giving up lots of expected value. Would have preferred Edwards/Blair/Mendes. My toy draft model really liked him though.
  2. DataNerd
    Maybe someone else has a better memory, but this seems like more of a bullpen pick than Falvey ever made this early. Wonder if this is them having a strong belief that he can start, or if this is a difference between Falvey and Zoll. Personally don't have an issue taking a likely BP arm round 4, especially when the velo is already there rather than projection.
  3. DataNerd
    There are 4 options with Jeffers: Trade, keep and let go as a FA, keep and offer the QO, and keep and extend. This kills a Jeffers extension, since he would probably get at least 3 years and Lackey is probably a better player in 2029 than Jeffers. It's questionable that he is worth the QO, so it now boils down keeping him for 3 months or getting some value for those 3 months.
  4. DataNerd
    Yes, but it depends somewhat on the league. The big outlier is the A+ leagues, where the Midwest League has had its 3 highest run/9 months, and the South Atlantic League which has had its #1, 2, and 5 (all of this going back to 2005). In both cases the highest month easily cleared the pre-2026 record (6.00 vs 5.65 and 6.12 vs 5.76). It's a great theory and a common complaint, but looking at the extreme A+ leagues, there wasn't an upwards trend in scoring post 2020 before this year. If you remove this year's data, the trend is actually a slight decrease in run scoring. There is something that is different in those leagues this year. I'm guessing that's why Quick quickly got out of there, to get to a more normal environment.
  5. DataNerd
    They have 3 guys with a 2.06 or lower ERA, as well as Jeff Hoffman making $11M/yr. Somebody has to get the low-leverage opportunities.
  6. DataNerd
    It's telling that Alex Jackson is staying. 3 catchers is hard to pull off, but if Jeffers is available for trade we can't afford to lose Jackson.
  7. DataNerd
    Trying to fit a MLB for MLB trade for Jeffers/Larnach is tough because the teams trading for them want to win now. I would probably move them for prospects (trying to get at least 1 who is a low upside AAA arm who can get called up), then make separate moves to get a couple bullpen arms.
  8. DataNerd
    There is risk to the Twins, but there is much more of a risk to the player. They enter pro ball at least 1 year later, potentially delaying FA. An injury could tank their draft stock, as well as not performing as well as expected. Meanwhile the Twins get the #4 pick, which may be better next year than this year (which is what our current pick effectively would be if we got bullied down).
  9. DataNerd
    Another huge issue is that he isn't making progress. He had a 49K% in Apr, a 37% in May, then a 48% in June. Just is not able to hit good pitching.
  10. DataNerd
    I think trading Larnach would be a smart move in a deadline where we mix buying and selling. I don't think this team is good enough to deal anyone in the org top 10, but it could be a good move to trade from strength (C, LHH OF) to address the pen.
  11. DataNerd
    The control has been better this year. The main concern that I have is I don't think he has an average fastball (93.5mph, 16" IVB). Curveball has solid but unspectacular spinrates and has a 50% whiff rate in AAA, Splitter runs a 40%. If the fastball/control are decent, the secondaries will play in the majors.
  12. DataNerd
    He's been a good hitter, but let's cool it thinking he is going to be an OBP machine; his 12 BB% is actually below the Midwest League's average of 13%. The big improvements have been in improving the contact quality: hitting more linedrives, less groundballs, and starting to pull the ball more to get more extra-base hits. With the defense at SS and the speed, he's probably about 15 RAA before we get to the bat. If the bat is average, he's around the 50th best position player.
  13. DataNerd
    I'm not sure that they will start out there, but all of the top 3 should be in the 10-25 range imo.
  14. DataNerd
    While I'm not a big draft for need guy, I don't think Ruiz makes a ton of sense when you just took Houston last year and he looks great. I think you can get a guy who has the same value as Ruiz but fits the org better. I'd like to come out of day 1 with 2 or 3 pitchers depending on how the board falls. We aren't going to be in a good position to be playing games with the bonus pool this year; likely spending slot on whoever is available at 3, while CHW/TBR can potentially save some money while still taking a top 3 guy and SFG/PIT will probably both be underslot since there is low consensus after the top 3.
  15. DataNerd
    Good start for Quick. While the 4.34 ERA/4.35 FIP don't look great, something is up in the Midwest League this year. The league average ERA is 5.35, the previous worst (going back to 05) was 4.48 in 2021. Quick has been a well above-average pitcher for the league
  16. DataNerd
    I agree there is some regression coming, I think he will outperform the xwOBA, even if he doesn't match the current wOBA. Looking at the spray chart, he gets a bunch of pulled HRs, and Statcast doesn't like these. Lee has 5 HRs with a xwOBA below .300. These are all his balls in play between 25 and 40 degrees. xwOBA of .335, actual of .618. The posterchild for this is Isaac Parades, who over 2500 PAs has a wOBA of .336 and an xwOBA of .309. Lee is also 25. It shouldn't be expected that he is at his peak skill-level.
  17. DataNerd
    He was older, worse offensively at St Paul, and much less valuable defensively than Fedko, and he is not looking great. Unless Bell gets hurt, I'm not sure he gets time because Mendez/Gonzalez/Roden/Wallner all have much more promise. He's 27, the start of his peak, and he's an above-average but not elite bat at AAA with no defensive value.
  18. DataNerd
    Clemens is running a .635 OPS vs LHP and an .817 vs RHP this year, career its .589 and .721. He should start against every righty, but save him for a pinch hitter with a lefty starter.
  19. DataNerd
    That was technically a baseball game, but it didn't really feel like one.
  20. DataNerd
    Pitching sample size is tiny, and all defensive metrics have flaws that require large samples to smooth out. I'd be curious to see if there is any correlation between pitcher SDI year/year, wouldn't be surprised if it is absolutely tiny.
  21. DataNerd
    If I was the GM, I would be going to the Pohlad's and telling them they can remove the overage from the next year's MLB salary and spending it every year. It's probably the highest ROI that you can get in today's game in spending, except with INTL spending which is also capped. One way is to just take your 11th round pick (150k) and spend it all on a HS guy (950k), which is about a 3rd round value. To put this in WAR terms, some modeling I did had Ellwanger as 1.5 WAR when drafted, while Kolten Smith was 0.5 WAR, 1M vs 200k, and the modeling is mostly just using draft pick and signing bonus. That is about an order of magnitude more value than you are getting in FA.
  22. DataNerd
    Fedko is up because Larnach/Clemens are both poor hitters against LHP and Fedko is a righty, while Roden and our other OF prospects are LHH. Martin can platoon with one of them, but they both should be on a platoon
  23. DataNerd
    This might be the most pathetic game of the year. Not even that much because of the result, but because I don't see any reason that Voth deserves MLB innings. He's old, doesn't throw hard, last had positive WAR in 2022, and wasn't great in AAA. Completely punting on the game in the 3rd inning, and in reality when he was added to the MLB roster.
  24. DataNerd
    Jeffers is probably getting traded, but there are plenty of other teams that are WS contenders (ATL, TBR, PHI) who have less fWAR at C than the Yankees. I'm guessing that someone overpays for him against what the value charts would suggest
  25. DataNerd
    Not ready on Tait yet, and while you have to take his age in account for his prospect status, I don't see why you would take it into account for a promotion. He's gotten the K% down to 16% for June, but he only has a 4 BB%. To me he's not in consideration for a promotion.
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