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DataNerd

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Everything posted by DataNerd

  1. DataNerd
    Does anyone feel confident in Buxton/Jenkins/ERod's ability to stay healthy? We need to be prepared for the scenario for an OF next year with none of those guys, and Roden easily works there.
  2. DataNerd
    Only issue with that analysis is that isn't a 3 WAR player. That's a 5 WAR guy.
  3. DataNerd
    He has value as a DH/5th OF. His arb value is essentially the contract we gave Bell and Larnach was a much better hitter (123 wRC+ vs 106), isn't slow as dirt, and gives more defensive flexibility than Bell did. If we can get legit value for him I am completely open to a trade, but I'm not going to dump him just to dump him. We had 6 position players with >2 WAR and nobody between 1-2. We likely are losing Jeffers, I don't know why we would just give away another guy in that category. We could get a better DH, but I'd rather spend the money on RP and one of Lowe/Arraez/Chisholm
  4. DataNerd
    Lewis hasn't been near a good enough hitter to go into the year penciling him in at 1B. Clemens is a good UTIL, but he's not been a great defender (and been better in the OF than IF). Sign/Trade for a 1B & 2B, move Larnach to DH would bolster the offense.
  5. DataNerd
    Kremer is 100%. We gave up a legit prospect for him, and he's been a league-average pitcher for pretty much his entire career. The Larnach hate here is ridiculous. He ranked 41st in wRC+ against RHP for all hitters with at least 200PA against them, better than anybody except Buxton on the team. Trading him for some value is a solid option, but I would be shocked if he got non-tendered. Sands will likely tell us how the team feels about his arm health. He was really good in 24 and decent in 25, and is only 29 with 2 years left. At 1.1M, it's probably worth it to give it to him and gamble that the velo comes back, and if it doesn't it's not much of a $ loss.
  6. DataNerd
    Prielipp struggled against LHH, doesn't throw a sweeper and has an insane ability to spin a baseball. Easy choice to add a sweeper and continue his journey into being a lefty junkballer.
  7. DataNerd
    I currently would guess 90% chance we give him the QO and 80% chance he turns it down. He was producing at a 5 WAR pace this year, 4 years of being above-average and will still be 29 on opening day. Realmuto got 3/45 last offseason coming off a slightly worse 3 year span and being 4 years older at the time of FA.
  8. DataNerd
    This also gives you the option to trade him in May when some competitor gets the injury bug and is desperate for someone not awful.
  9. DataNerd
    All lottery teams (other than SF/PIT who can't pick above 10th) can pick #1.
  10. DataNerd
    I had him moving to the pen this year, and if (big one here) he gets healthy I still think he could become the top guy in the pen. First time through the order as a SP he has a 2.45 ERA/3.06 FIP (55IP). He has done a much better job of not walking guys in that span; 5.8% first time, 10.8% second time.
  11. DataNerd
    I don't have any $ target, but I'll gauge it more off what type of players we are getting to fill in the holes. We currently need a C (probably not a splash since Lackey is the future), 2 between 1B/2B/DH, and 2 RP. If we are getting average or better starters for those roles I'll be happy, but it we are signing 5 bargain bin guys it will just be the same old. Also, no spending on OF/SP. We already have too much depth at those positions and should be trading some of it away to improve elsewhere.
  12. DataNerd
    It was 156, not 165.
  13. DataNerd
    He hasn't been great, but you are seriously overestimating how bad a replacement level catcher is. He's at 0.8 fWAR, and that would be higher if he didn't play 28 games at 1B/DH.
  14. DataNerd
    Martin is a good platoon OF, and we have a ton of LHH OF for him to platoon with here and in St Paul. He's also had a 127 wRC+ in July and 115 in August, so why would we be sending him down? For LHH OFs, we have Larnach, Jenkins, Roden, ERod, Mendez. Martin has a 137 wRC+ against LHP. Our only other RHH guys are Buxton (who is starting when healthy) and Keaschall (who is starting if he can play defense and hasn't actually been better against LHP than RHP). Martin is a great fit for this roster.
  15. DataNerd
    The big reason that he is overperforming his xwOBA is that he pulls the ball in the air alot, and balls pulled in the air significantly outperform their xwOBA (0.621 xwOBA, 0.877 wOBA for the league as a whole). He has had a lot of HRs pulled down the line that have low xwOBA even though they would be a HR at almost if not every park. These balls don't get classed as barrels because the exit velo isn't enough, but they are consistantly going out of the park. While he should overperform, I'm not sure if he can do it at this level. The big question is if the number of HRs right down the line is noise or if it is a skill.
  16. DataNerd
    Tinney is striking out too much for my liking. 32% (same that Sabato did at A, although his was over 367 PA rather than 44 and not during his draft year, and he's walking more and showing more power).
  17. DataNerd
    The only reason that we would trade Ryan in the offseason would be the same reason that the Brewers traded Peralta; some team decided to massively overpay for him.
  18. DataNerd
    They aren't going to call him up for him to start 3 times a week.
  19. DataNerd
    He's legit, consensus 11-20 in the org. Fastball gets good movement but only averages 93, cutter/changeup/slider all have been solid but unspectacular at missing bats. He looks more like a back of the rotation starter, could be mid-rotation if the fastball ticks up, imo probably heads to the pen to get that velocity and becomes a 7th inning guy
  20. DataNerd
    Lee has a 1.5 fWAR, 99 wRC+ and -0.7 runs DEF, has been average at 3B and is 25. I'm nowhere close to giving up on Lee, he's a cheap average player.
  21. DataNerd
    All 3 trades looked like slight overpays, but that seemed true for almost everyone buying this deadline: the options were to overpay or stay on the sidelines. Given how early the Kramer trade happened, they likely targeted him specifically. It looks like the worst deal currently, but if they are able to get him back to the 25 version the deal would be a big win.
  22. DataNerd
    Incredibly low. Publications in general are way too low on recently drafted players and are hesitant to rank them highly until they hit well in the minors, and are slow to move up the guys who really hit well. Marek Houston is pretty much repeating what Culpepper did, and is a higher draft pick and better fielder, but Culpepper is 26 and Houston is 90. IMO, I have Houston above Culpepper (and I really like Culpepper)
  23. DataNerd
    With his arm, he would be a better 3B than 2B; however, KC at 2B and Lee at 3B is much better than switching them around, and KC would be an above-average 2B.
  24. DataNerd
    The offense in the PCL is insane, so that line is good enough for an 82 wRC+. The league ERA is 5.5. So no, I would not be happy if Houston hit like that in AAA
  25. DataNerd
    1 more year, they are paying for some portion of it.
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