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DataNerd

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Everything posted by DataNerd

  1. DataNerd
    No way would I be willing to pay the cost. He's a 4-5, and getting another guy like that for next year isn't a good use of resources (Ryan/Pablo/Bradley are all in front of him, with Abel/Prielipp having much more upside). I'd rather go for the rental equivalent of Hancock who we won't have to pay near the price for.
  2. DataNerd
    We could empty the prospect pool and not make the playoffs. Going all in when you are .500, have an above-average farm system and a youngish team is not a wise move.
  3. DataNerd
    I'm not that close to doing it now with the Ks, but if he hits like this he has to start next year in A+ even with a 25+ K%.
  4. DataNerd
    Hard to tell if this is their actual stance on Jeffers, or if it's just smokescreen season. You have the leverage of a QO/comp pick to try to get the Yankees/Rays not only to bid against each other, but against us keeping him as well. Or we deal Alex Jackson for a 6th inning guy.
  5. DataNerd
    Probably requires a 3 team trade, since NYY/TBR are pure buyers. Should be plenty of teams that would love to trade a reliever for prospects as the 3rd team.
  6. DataNerd
    I'm a light buyer, getting a couple of bullpen arms and a rental starter that's mainly for insurance (we are 2 SP injuries away from having to start either Gallagher/Klein, and Prielipp might not be able to continue to start in Sep). Probably sending out Jeffers since that will help get some solid BP arms without spending much prospect capital and since the league is short on C and RHH he probably requires an overpay on the trade charts.
  7. DataNerd
    They would likely be paying about all of this year's salary and half of next years with us giving them a prospect outside of the org top 100, so it's essentially 1/10, with the potential for an extra year if he bounces back enough to be able to go 180 IP next year. Not sure I would be that interested, but we aren't breaking the bank for him
  8. DataNerd
    If you look at fWAR, Larnach is at 2.1 and Bader was at 2.0 when traded (BR uses DRS for defense while FanGraphs uses statcast which causes the difference). Bader did get a value bump because he could play CF, but I think Larnach will get more than the Bader did, with the caveat that Mendez is more highly valued now than when we got him.
  9. DataNerd
    We signed Caratini as a FA in the offseason because the league wasn't giving him the contract we thought he was worth. I'm not sure that a team is all of a sudden more excited about Caratini now when he looks to be pretty much the same player he was the last 2 years.
  10. DataNerd
    That would require them to have Caratini under contract for next year, which isn't their style. They currently only have 1 player (Steven Matz) under contract for 27.
  11. DataNerd
    That ranking was off of Tolle being the 50th overall pick and not having thrown in the pros. He then proceded to run a 38 K%/7BB% in A+, then a 37/7 in AA. He had a massive up arrow next to his name halfway through the year.
  12. DataNerd
    I'm higher on Kendle than I ever was on Fedko (not that I'm that high on Kendle). Less strikeouts, higher BABIP driven by way more linedrives, and hasn't had much true struggles in the low minors (Fedko had an 84 wRC+ in AA at 24yr). Kendle is currently 24 so he needs to move pretty fast to be something, but he's continued to look good at AA and could end up starting 27 in AAA and debuting next year.
  13. DataNerd
    I believe it was Boston that someone big accidentally tweeted that they had traded for him at the deadline last year. They have seemed to be interested in him, and a guy like Anthony Eyanson would we the type of guy we would be wanting back.
  14. DataNerd
    MIN and CLE combined for 2.00 WPA for the pitchers (1.25 and 0.75). Not a good day for clutch hitting, but eventually someone had to get one and it was us.
  15. DataNerd
    Yep. I've got it at $68,400 with only 14th round pick Alec Bouchard unknown.
  16. DataNerd
    Its 5%, so ~800k if the Twins were to max it. Less than a third of teams fully max out their overage.
  17. DataNerd
    I don't think the fastball command is an issue, its more of that it's not a great pitch anywhere he throws it. Changeup has been a horrible pitch, getting hit in the zone and not missing bats. The fastball has to be a strikeout threat to make the breaking pitches really work, and if he moves to the pen it might become enough of a threat
  18. DataNerd
    The only thing I'm questioning on that is that Ethan Lay is listed here as slot value, and I can't find anything online that confirms that and people thought he was an underslot pick. If he did sign for that, we would be at -424k space, with Renfrow likely being about slot, Burns reportedly overslot, and Raab/Klecker underslot, but their combined slot values is only 415k.
  19. DataNerd
    His lowest wRC+ that he has ever had at a level/year when he has had >100PAs is 132, and that was complex ball in 2021. The bat is consistant, the availability is anything but.
  20. DataNerd
    I personally have Lackey 3 instead of 2, but that is more due to thinking Culpepper is a top 20 prospect. I would have him closer to Jenkins at 1 than Houston at 4 Young needs to get moved down way faster. The hit tool, which was questionable at draft time, is worse than people thought. Wachsmann is way too low for this list. Given how close they were together and how much different the $ is going to be, I can't see ranking him below Renfrow and he should be closer to Tinney than Renfrow (Tinney is probably a bit low for me).
  21. DataNerd
    Other than some bullpen help and a rental starter to prevent relying on Parades, I would rather trade for 2027 guys in 2027. I also have our current payroll for 27 at $105M, well below the current 125. We lose Jeffers, who we aren't replacing, and Bell/Rogers who we would need to but are easily replaceable. Trading Larnach would open another 7M. There will be room to add to the pen even with our constraints.
  22. DataNerd
    $2.25M, about 1.2M over slot. They almost certainly had that number when they picked him
  23. DataNerd
    Jim Callis
  24. DataNerd
    There has been an uptick of long-term extensions this year because nobody knows and the players/teams know that voiding existing contracts is off the table in negotiations. There may be a maximum contract length that is shorter than what Taj could get now, so if he waits until the new CBA is signed he might not legally be able to get as many years as he would like to increase his minimum career earnings.
  25. DataNerd
    Always depends on if he wants to do it, but this is a great time for the team to do it because there is a good chance Bradley will trade some of his expected earnings if he doesn't sign for set-for-life money. 750k signing bonus, never made more than MLB minimum, hard to pass up something that would probably be between 75-100M, especially as a pitcher.
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