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DataNerd

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Everything posted by DataNerd

  1. DataNerd
    I don't get why this works, but it has. 10 balls in play at >40 LA, 7Ks, 0BBs will work any day.
  2. DataNerd
    I'm guessing they take whichever of the top 3 are available. Lombard has been getting some buzz for both the Twins and Rays; tons of upside and he would save a significant amount to play around with day 1.
  3. DataNerd
    Screaming reliever to me. A bit wild, and the fastball is decent at 93mph/17.5"IVB, but with only being 23 and a starter, could probably be 96mph/19"IVB out of the pen in a year or two. Secondaries seem solid enough to work if the fastball is an above average pitch. I'd probably keep him as a starter the rest of the year at least. Doesn't need to be added to the 40 man for the 26 R5 draft, and maybe the stuff improves enough heading into 27 that he is a starter project.
  4. DataNerd
    I don't think Rojas has shown that he is ready, but neither has the majority of our current bullpen
  5. DataNerd
    Walker JenkinsEmmanuel RodriguezKaelen CulpepperConnor PrielippMarek Houston Underrated, has made consistent hard contact at WF and in pro ball, and with the defense can afford to run a slightly-elevated strikeout rate.Eduardo TaitRiley QuickDasan HillAndrew MorrisKendry RojasGabriel Gonzalez High chase rate dings him, doesn't have the defense/speed/power to play if the hit tool isn't 60 and the chase rate makes that hard.Charlee SotoBrandon WinokurBruin Agbayani 12BB/3K in 50PA for an 18/19 year old in A ball is impressive. Defense and power are questions, but the hit tool looks great.James EllwangerHendry MendezAdrian Bohorquez If he starts throwing more strikes he could easily be top 10 by end of year.Billy AmickRyan GallagherKyle DeBarge
  6. DataNerd
    Fort Myers has a few hitters looking good. Mercedes is finally figuring out A ball. Pena continues to rarely strike out while doing a better job of getting hits. Ramiro Dominguez has a 158wRC+, a .273 ISO with 9BB/10K. And Agbayani finally struck out, between this year and last has 14BB/5K
  7. DataNerd
    35th percentile in chase rate, 38th in zone swing rate. Also has not been great on inside pitches. He still makes a lot of hard contact, and improving plate discipline should help that.
  8. DataNerd
    @Brock BeauchampCould you add Bruin Agbayani?
  9. DataNerd
    Imagine being worse than this
  10. DataNerd
    SSS but Agbayani really has looked impressive. Including last year, 8K%/25BB% in 36PA. Houston showing a lot more pop, hitting way more line drives and pulling the ball more (bad day to stumble across this as he hits an oppo homer). Want the strikeouts to be lower, but this looks like a guy who could hit 12-15 HR and have a .120 ISO, which with his defense will be fine.
  11. DataNerd
    Ober is going to be a case study in pitcher evaluation. No idea why this is working. He got a whiff on an 86mph fastball in the zone.
  12. DataNerd
    Looking back at MLB.com writeup on Quick Yeah, he's fixed that. Outside of the top 4 college pitchers taken in last years draft (picks 2, 3, 5, and 11), he's looked like the next best one.
  13. DataNerd
    From an individual hit ball perspective, once the exit velocity gets above 95mph, the OPS for all balls hit at a certain speed increases significantly as exit velocity increases. On a per-player basis, while not necessary (see Brian Dozier), it is a lot easier for guys who hit the ball hard to significantly increase their HR totals than guys who don't. For prospects, guys with really high exit velocities but without a ton of HRs have often turned that power into HRs later in their career. Probably the most famous is Judge, who before his 52HR rookie season had only ever hit 23HR in a single season, but going back to college and in the minors showed a ton of ability to hit the ball hard. Last year, ERod only had 6HR in 267PA, but he had high exit velocities. He currently has 6 in 97 this year. Tait and Jenkins both have really high exit velocities, so they both could be guys who have significantly more power in the future than they show currently.
  14. DataNerd
    Ryan's fastball has been one of the best pitches in baseball (last year it had the 16th highest run value above average for all pitches), but there is a big question of how much of that is due to the stuff, and how much of that is due to him being able to locate it at the top of the zone consistently. I've done some pitch modeling and looked at others, and STUFF models don't really like Ryan's fastball when you just give it velo/movement, but when you also put location it models as a great pitch.
  15. DataNerd
    Outman is an easy send down. Yes, he would have to be put through waivers, but I doubt that anyone would claim him and put him on their MLB roster.
  16. DataNerd
    Prielipp needs to improve his control, but the slider being this good has been bailing his control out. Really no ceiling on him, all depends on how well he can locate his stuff. Not sure that Morris is good for more than a couple of innings right now. Not ready to move him to the pen full time at 24, but our pen really is bad so he'll probably get some more run before returning to St Paul. Wallner over Martin in the lineup is just pathetic at this point. Are they waiting for Wallner's OPS to fall below Martin's OBP?
  17. DataNerd
    Matthews had the velo up to what it was last year, and the slider whiff rate was 60%. This is the first start this year where either of those was where it was last year.
  18. DataNerd
    That would be the curveball, all of the sliders were 86-89. Spinrate of 3369 RPM, absolutely filthy
  19. DataNerd
    Lebron's whiff problems aren't as bad as Honeycutt's were, and he is also a SS. However, Honeycutt has been abysmal (40% K rate in A+ last year, 50% this year repeating the level), so I wouldn't find solace in Lebron being better than he was.
  20. DataNerd
    My heart wants the ace upside of Flora, but my brain says that a bat is the smarter pick. I'd be happy with any of the top 4, and going with an underslot move that isn't one of them would just be outsmarting ourselves.
  21. DataNerd
    Not sure what else Quick needs to show in Ft Myers. Sinker at 96, Changeup that misses a ton of bats, Curveball at 2800 RPM and missing bats, cutter that looks solid. Making a good argument to be the #2 pitching prospect behind Prielipp, and maybe a T100 guy sometime this year.
  22. DataNerd
    His fastball is hard for guys to hit hard, but it is not a bat-missing pitch. Even without adjusting for a higher AVG than xAVG, his fastball has been more valuable than it was last year. He needs to get either his slider or split-finger back to being a pitch that guys can miss on. Won't be a quick fix, but he looks like a guy who could really benefit from a Sweeper or messing with the Curve to make it a chase pitch rather than sneaking it for strikes.
  23. DataNerd
    Yeah. It's weird to have a guy who is not chasing bad pitches, making a ton of contact when he swings, having high exit velocities but yet still having a bad batted ball profile, but that is where he has been this year. It's a bit impressive to have a 90th% EV at the 99th percentile for AAA hitters and only have a 0.068 ISO
  24. DataNerd
    There is a reason that Bowden isn't working for an MLB team
  25. DataNerd
    Some really good pitching performances. Unfortuately there seems to be a statcast issue, so don't have any data for Prielipp/Rojas/Quick, but based on the results it's looking good. Hill needs to throw strikes. Definitely not giving up on him, but he might be behind Prielipp/Rojas/Quick right now.
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