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DataNerd

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Everything posted by DataNerd

  1. DataNerd
    After a terrible 25 for him, 26 isn't looking much better. For both him and the team, would be great if he could bounce back.
  2. DataNerd
    He had a .227 BABIP last year (career .312). Don't buy that he is going to get near his 3.18 ERA that he had last year. Last year had a 12.7 BB% and is 9.9% for his career. His 2024 was much better under the hood, so there is definitely hope that he can limit the walks and be a solid pitcher. But it's not that hard to see why LAD wasn't willing to ride with him again.
  3. DataNerd
    No team is looking at BBTV to evaluate players, but it is a useful initial tool because often fans don't value players the way that teams value them. If you look at all of the deadline trades we made last year, they all were roughly the same value on both sides. Odorizzi was coming off of a year where his walk rate jumped significantly and the Rays thought that he was damaged goods.
  4. DataNerd
    If HOU is going to trade Parades, they probably want most of their value to come from a corner OF, not a backup C. If we are going to trade Jeffers, a 3B with 2 years of control would not be what I'm looking for either.
  5. DataNerd
    It's definitely not a good system, but the question becomes what do you replace it with? Baseball has a much longer and larger developmental system than any other US sport, and players often take 2-3 years before they become above-average, so whatever system needs to encourage teams to develop young players by getting excess value out of the ones that succeed.
  6. DataNerd
    With the depth we have, he's an easy St Paul guy. Gives him more opportunity to develop the sweeper in a low-stakes environment, which would really help him against RHH (he had a 26K% against LHH vs 18% for RHH). It has the velo/spin to be a plus pitch if he can locate it and tunnel the fastball off of it.
  7. DataNerd
    1. There is no way the Twins make the Jax trade if they didn't view Bradley as a starter. 2. Bradley is younger than SWR, Festa, Zebby, and even Prielipp. Only half a year older than Abel/Morris. He's younger than Ober/Ryan were when they made their debut. He had some issues last year, but the trajectory of his first 2 years had him looking like a potential star. He's easily the #4 starter for me.
  8. DataNerd
    See what he does in spring training (assuming that he isn't DFA'd before then). Fastball is legit, could be a weapon if he gets fixed, but likely doesn't make the team.
  9. DataNerd
    He hasn't hit the number of HRs (or have the exit velo to suggest that he will develop it) that you would need out of a LF/RF to be a top 100 guy. The bat looks legit, but without a lot of HRs/BBs and likely being negative-value defensively, it both limits the upside and also has the concern that he'll hit .260 but not do enough else to be a starting OF. I don't have him as a top 100 guy, but as a 101-200 guy. Would not be shocked if he becomes a good player, but it's hard to see him as a great one.
  10. DataNerd
    Elite exit velo without horrible whiff rates. Belief that the power will start translating more to HRs as he ages (which isn't uncommon).
  11. DataNerd
    Really think Culpepper is the most underrated guy in the system. Solid BB/K/HR numbers, a legitimate chance to stay at short and likely a plus defender at 3B/2B otherwise. I have him closer to Jenkins than to whoever the org's 3rd prospect is.
  12. DataNerd
    He also doesn't have the ability to spin a curveball. Shame because the command/changeup are legit
  13. DataNerd
    Ohl does not have an MLB fastball, and it's hard to make a changeup work when hitters aren't worried about the fastball. Adams does, and if he can improve a secondary option he could be a part of the bullpen. He'll probably start out in AAA even if we don't sign another player, so there probably won't be a decision made on him until a month or two into the season.
  14. DataNerd
    For all of the questions about what does Lee do well, he has a strong in-zone contact rate (56th/215 min 400PA, 75th percentile). And while he is certainly not a great defender, he isn't a black hole there either. For all of this talk about bat speed, the R^2 between bat speed and wRC+ for 2025 is 0.09. It is far less important than a lot of people here are acting like it is.
  15. DataNerd
    Seems like a good trade for both sides. Rockies are bad enough that Julien will have a legit chance to make the team for them, and we get a guy who would have been an org top 30 pre-injury for him and Ohl (who being DFA'd was set to be gone)
  16. DataNerd
    It's reasonable to expect that a 25yr will make improvements from his 24yr season. I'm also not going to worry about a guy's swing plane if one of the comps is Jose Ramirez. Could just be better plate discipline away from being an average hitter. If not, he might just be a utility guy.
  17. DataNerd
    Joe Ryan is not close to the pitcher Skubal is. His case is really going to be precedent setting in how much top guys can get in arb. Skubal had more fWAR last year than Ryan the past 2 years.
  18. DataNerd
    If the Twins don't pick up his option, he is still arbitration eligible and is not a free agent. So the option becomes a question of whether they think that he would get that much in arbitration or not. However, MLBTR is saying it is a mutual option, which would change the option from being a cap on what he can make next year to us having to pay $100k if we don't pay him $13M
  19. DataNerd
    The main reason to give Keaschall some OF time is more to help with future roster construction rather than just this year. He's seemed fine as a 2B, and he played his entire college career in the IF with half of that at 2B. Having him also be able to play LF (which with his speed he should be well above average there) would be really helpful for dealing with injuries, and 3 years from now who knows if we feel better about the IF or OF.
  20. DataNerd
    I'm pretty sure that we didn't aquire Gray to start over Keaschall, but rather as a cheap insurance plan for if neither Lee/Culpepper is able to play SS. The main platoon I expect is that Martin will spell Larnach/Wallner against LHP (and he will likely start a bit against RHP as well)
  21. DataNerd
    Horrible arm makes him unplayable as a catcher; In 932 innings, he has had 194SB/27CS (87.8% SB), which is 18.5 runs below average in about a years worth of defense. Combine that with him only hitting 8HR in 400PA as a 24yr old, it's hard to see the bat play at 1B. I wouldn't put him in the top 50 org prospects.
  22. DataNerd
    Generally agree, but Keaschall is too fast to waste at 1st. I know his arm is somewhere between bad and terrible, but he had an 85th percentile sprint speed which should more than make up for it in LF.
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