Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

DataNerd

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    222

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Profiles

News

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects Ranking

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

Minnesota Twins Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Pick Tracker

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Tracker: Picks & Bonuses

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by DataNerd

  1. DataNerd
    The amount of concern that people had for Houston having a horrible BABIP in 46ABs in CR last year was insane (and completely ignoring the 54ABs in Fort Myers). He Hit .270 in A-A+, and the K% was below 20% at both levels.
  2. DataNerd
    Moring has a massive up arrow next to his name after this showing. Fastball averaged 93 with 20in of IVB, and he's really young for a 3-yr college guy only currently being 21. If he can add a couple of ticks, he could have an above-average fastball. Also, he's from UC Santa Barbara, same as the top college pitcher Jackson Flora. Foreshadowing? Probably not
  3. DataNerd
    I'm not able to quickly look up players who played at multiple levels, but Kendall George for LAD stole 100 bases. A lot of minor league C don't have MLB-caliber arms
  4. DataNerd
    I'm not in favor of the strategy the way you put it, but you don't need to do that to have money to spend around when you pick at the top of the draft. Last year, the Mariners saved 700k picking MLB Pipeline's #2 player at #3, and in 2024 the A's saved 1.37M picking the #4 at #4. Right now, the draft is looking like Roch at 1-1, then Emerson/Lebron/Flora/Lackey, meaning the Twins will have the choice of 3 of the second group. If you sign the guy you want for #4 slot value, that would save 750k, which would be enough to move #43 to #32. Could easily take from other places in the draft to get it into a top 30 slot if that was the direction they wanted to go in
  5. DataNerd
    Flora has an elite fastball (not quite the speed that Skenes had, but has better movement for whiffs), similar to Chase Burns who went 2nd overall in 24' and is currently starting for the Reds. Flora doesn't have a secondary as good as Skenes slider was, and he also isn't nearly as built as Skenes was. So not at Skenes level, but if he was he wouldn't be making it to #3
  6. DataNerd
    Another low-cost reclamation project arm. Makes sense with the open roster spot, but probably more likely to be cut than promoted.
  7. DataNerd
    Watched on milb.com. He had a nice scoop on a poor throw by the 3B.
  8. DataNerd
    Cavaco never had a K% below 30%, and he was at 38% in rookie ball after he was drafted. Houston was 19% between Low-High A (and was lower at High A). He had a .488 BABIP in A, then a .162 in A+ in about the same sample size each. With Houston, the concerns on the bat are that he doesn't get to much power, but the hit tool was fine.
  9. DataNerd
    When people do grades, they are often considered to be 1 standard deviation per 10, so saying that a guy is a 70 would be saying they are projected to be in the top 5% of all MLB hitters. It's too hard to project guys to be at that level when they have never faced MLB pitching and are still 7 years away from their prime. MLBPipeline has 1 70 hit grade and 2 65s. belonging to the #2, #5. and #9 prospects in baseball
  10. DataNerd
    He's striking out 23% of his PA, which is slightly above his career 21%, but not significant in this amount of PT. Ks would be the only main concern I would have for a hitter with this few chances, especially in ST.
  11. DataNerd
    Hendriks had a clause in his contract (that most top MiLB free agents get) that he can, at a certain time, force the Twins to either add him to the 40-man or release him. He triggered that, and the Twins decided they would rather release him than 40-man him. It's pretty standard for those guys to do, since now he can see if another team wants him on the MLB team, otherwise he would probably be a take for everyone's AAA squad.
  12. DataNerd
    As well as a bunch of other guys in the same boat as Chafin/Hendriks. I'd much rather get someone external, because we are going to need to go into St Paul after a month anyways.
  13. DataNerd
    He hasn't been a good pitcher since 2022, and he's 37. His average fastball then was 97-98. He was not competing for late-innings, he was competing for the last spot in the pen. 4K/3BB is not good either.
  14. DataNerd
    Few major differences in why ERod > Julien, even though they are extremely similar. 1: Julien was 24 in AAA, ERod was 22 (21 in his short 2024 time). If he hadn't missed time, would have been there pretty much his full 21 season. 2: Julien is not a good defender. ERod will probably be a bit above average (a slighly below average CF or a well-above average RF are my baseline) 3: ERod has shown more power in the minors than Julien did, and did at a younger age. I'm not sure that MLB pitchers will be as aggressive with him as they became with Julien.
  15. DataNerd
    He's a guy who sneaks into the top 100 for me, and I think that the industry as a whole underrates guys who were recently drafted. Houston was ranked 15th by MLB, was drafted 16th and got the 16th highest bonus, so it's pretty safe to view him as the 15-16th highest guy in the class. If we look at the current MLB Top 100 prospects, there are 13 guys from the 2024 draft top 30 (which wasn't particularly strong), as well as Burns/Kurtz/Caglianone/CamSmith who are no longer prospects but would definitely be top 100, and Moore would be a maybe. So 17-18 guys make the top 100, so a guy taken 16th should be towards the end of the list. There will likely be some growing pains as he learns to be more of a contact hitter in the pros (he sold out more for power at WF, which worked there but won't in pro ball), but he'll probably get the contact rates up. I'd easily put him above Rojas/Hill/Prielipp, and would have above Abel before ST.
  16. DataNerd
    Big year for Soto. His 2024 numbers besides the ERA weren't that bad, FIP was basically league-average. Only 60% of runners LOB, .365 BABIP aren't numbers you would expect to repeat. He was significantly better his 3 starts in CR last year, and if he shows he can do that for a full season he could easily be the top pitching prospect.
  17. DataNerd
    Bailey Ober, Zebby Matthews, Cole Sands, David Festa all were later guys who are going to be a big part. Jax and Varland were as well. Being able to put together an above-average pitching staff (which we would have if we didn't trade away the bullpen) without spending high draft picks or big FA contracts on pitchers is a great showing of our pitching development. The reason we are bad is because we don't spend money we had a stretch of 5 years where our first round picks were Larnach, Cavaco, Sabato, Petty (traded for Sonny Gray, let go in FA), Lee. We have had good pitching development.
  18. DataNerd
    Definitely a boom/bust guy, but at this point there are no sure things and this spot seems about right. He has a lower chance of making it than everyone ranked above him, but he similarly has a better 90th percentile outcome than anyone ranked below him.
  19. DataNerd
    DeBarge started out at CR looking like a potential top 100 guy, and by the end of the year was horrible (34:40 BB/K in April/May, 13:43 in Aug/Sep). He can rocket back up the list if he returns to how he was in the first half, or plummet if he repeats his second. Mendez can hit, but can't do much else. He may be a 1B, and will need to turn raw power into HRs for that to possibly work. Probably have Ellwanger slightly higher than the rest of the list, not because of him particularly but that draft picks seem to be underrated entering pro ball. I know already that I'll disagree with where Houston is ranked
  20. DataNerd
    There is a good chance they will need to address it next year, but they addressed a short term need, and we'll have a much better idea in a few months what we are needing at the position. It's plausible that a Caratini/Jackson duo would be fine for a year while waiting for Tait, or both could tank and we are looking at Caratini as the backup and needing a starter. I'd rather address the problem when we know what the problem actually is
  21. DataNerd
    He looked dominant yesterday. The fastball was up 3mph from his AAA average, slider up 1.5mph with 150rpm higher spinrate. Completely fooled Austin Riley on a changeup. Major question on how many innings he can throw, can he last a full year as a starter, and if he can throw strikes, but the stuff is legit.
  22. DataNerd
    Agree with most to keep him as a starter for now and reevaluate in a few months. If he doesn't show progress, it's fine to move him to the pen, but he's close enough that improving a secondary or a tick or two on the fastball could make him a solid starter.
  23. DataNerd
    I don't think they are going to lose a ton of value by keeping him until July, and baseball is a lot more unpredictable than many people here are acting like it is. We went from 59 wins in 2016 to 85 in 2017.
  24. DataNerd
    Main reason the drop isn't as much is because models like our pitching depth, and so the innings that were going to Lopez at a 3 WAR rate got moved to Bradley/Matthews/SWR/Abel who are going at a 1.5 WAR rate.
  25. DataNerd
    1. Using monthly defensive numbers is not a great analysis unless you are thinking that a guy was hurt. Even yearly they tend to have wild changes year to year. 2. While he is coming off of his worst defensive season (from Statcast RAA), he was still 2 runs above average and had a 100th percentile sprint speed. Really am wondering if this is actually a decline in ability, or a focus on staying healthy by not taking unnecessary risks.
×
×
  • Create New...