Time for Twins to Address the Elephant in the Room

[Theodore Tollefson]

Emilio Pagan once again blew a Twins lead that became a loss. It's time for the Twins to address their future and commitment with one of the team’s most controversial reliever. 

Image courtesy of Gary A. Vasquez

Emilio Pagan is still a Minnesota Twin. Calls for his release by fans date back to his implosion when he blew three games against the divisional foes Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Guardians. 

He started the month of June 2022 with an even 3.00 ERA, by the end of the month it was an alarming 5.26. From the moment Pagan had that last blown lead on June 28 against Cleveland, every Twins fan’s brow begins to sweat mercilessly as he enters a game. 

There have been flashes of his upside since then, but almost a year after that horrific month of June, Pagan is in a similar boat. Wednesday afternoon in the series finale against the juggernaut Los Angeles Dodgers, Pagan was brought into the game in the bottom of the seventh to replace Jose De Leon who had two runners on with two outs. 

The first batter Pagan faced was the resurging Jason Heyward; he walked him on six pitches. Bases were now loaded with two outs, and the rookie Miguel Vargas came to the plate. He was walked on five pitches, the game was now tied 3-3. 

Then the moment of terror, speaking truth from the old baseball adage ‘Walks will haunt’, and they did. Fellow Dodgers rookie James Outman didn’t need to see anything beyond Pagan’s 95.4 MPH fastball. He crushed a grand slam to center field, securing the Dodgers' 7-3 victory over the Twins. 

Entering the game with a 4.15 ERA, the grand slam ballooned it to a 5.60 ERA. Pagan’s efforts to improve himself after an atrocious long relief outing on April 20, in which he gave up six runs to the Red Sox, turned to ash with that grand slam.

Is this the moment the Twins finally cut ties with fans' greatest source of frustration in the bullpen? It may be.

Every single pitch in his arsenal has dipped in velocity, minus his curveball (up to 81.2 from 80.4 average in 2022). Hitters are also making better contact against his pitches with a wOBA of .356 against his fastball, .612 against his splitter, and .333 against a curveball. The only pitch Pagan has made harder for hitters to see is his cutter, which has a .111 wOBA against 100 hitters. 

There are also young arms in St. Paul posting great numbers itching for their first or second opportunity in the Majors. Jordan Balazovic has redeemed himself from his dreadful 2022 season with a 2.89 ERA in 18 2/3 innings pitched. Brent Headrick has had a 3.24 in 8 1/3 innings with the Twins and they are still lacking a lefty in the bullpen with Caleb Thielbar on the IL. 

Between the pitch arsenal seeing an overall drop in velocity, young arms waiting in the wings, and a continual number of outings where leads and tied games are blown. The time to cut Pagan has never been clearer, and if the Twins don’t go through with it, the fans will make them hear about it until they do. 

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[AJray15]

It’s absolutely time to just cut him loose (it was in the off-season), but we all know they won’t. For whatever reason they have this attachment to the guy. I just don’t get it anymore.

[kenneth frank]

I believe the real issue was when the Twins failed to score with the bases loaded and nobody out in the top half of the inning (:

[Nine of twelve]

When the Twins made the decision to keep Pagan on staff I was open minded about it. I assumed that the FO and on-field people felt that he could be effective with proper coaching and proper use. And I thought it was the right thing to do to give him opportunities to prove himself. While he has mostly done OK, when things have gone bad for him things have gone very bad. Every reliever on a team with championship aspirations needs to be able to do the job in any situation and it seems to me that he is simply not reliable enough. I think the time has come to thank him for his service and wish him the best of luck in his future elsewhere.

[Trov]

Baseball reference does not have yesterdays game log in yet.  However, going into that game, Pagan numbers are not great, but not as bad as some may think.  Griffin Jax has similar, if not worse numbers than Pagan, but I do not see people calling for DFA Jax.  I am not saying I want Pagan pitching over Jax, but the numbers are similar.  Jax had a FIP of 2.55, going into yesterday.  Pagan had FIP of 2.03.  Yes, he had a very bad outing yesterday, giving up a bases loaded walk, and his first HR of season, but he was out there because pen was taxed, Gray had a short start, and lets not forget we had bases loaded 0 out, and did nothing with it.  The loss is not just on Pagan.  If you want to be objective on numbers, maybe Jax should be looked at being sent down as well, if you want to get rid of Pagan.  Guys will have bad outings, and Pagan has had more than his fair share, but he generally is being asked to fill not high leverage roll, but had to yesterday because of heavy pen use the two prior days. 

[Whitey333]

I agree that the other big issue in yesterday's game was the bases loaded no one out situation in which we didn't score again. But that shouldn't overshadow another pathetic performance by Pagan.  He has literally cost the team 12 games over the past two years.  Pagan must be DFA'd if the Twins are to be considered serious contenders.  Also IMO Baldelli should be next.  Like yesterday he consistently gets outmanaged.

[specialiststeve]

The other elephant in the room is Rocco and his use of the bullpen... he is the other one that needs to go.

He is just not a good manager.. period.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

The two critical walks by Pagan upset me more than the grand slam. Those two walks were inexcusable. I was a terrible high school pitcher on a terrible high school team, but even I could/would throw strikes in that situation. Having said that, even a high school hitter would know that Pagan was going to throw a fastball down the middle after two straight walks which tied the game. It was the walks that did him in. 

[BobAzar]

I mean, the guys name is "Outman", he was literally born to NOT get a hit, yet Pagan went against nature to allow that GS. 

 

ETA: dont take this as any sort of defense of Pagan or letting him off the hook, or disagreement of the article. Last night talking about the game I said "why is he still on the team?!" my 8 year old answered "because hes so bad that no team would want to trade for him". so we had a discussion about the option to just cut players. He then wondered why they hadnt done that yet. 

[saviking]

I'd like to say yesterdays grand slam was the final straw for me but I'd be lying. That happened about half way through last season ...

[Johnny Ringo]

He is not a good pitcher  going through an (extended) bad streak. He has a career 3.95 ERA , Even that is misleadingly sunny as he hasn't been good since 2019. He is by all accounts, a good guy. However, he has a black cloud that follows him around constantly and he has to weigh on the team psyche given his unbelievable track record for critically timed implosions . He should not be on the roster period. Forget the advance metrics of spin rates, etc. Getting outs is all that matters.  

[OvertheHill]

32 minutes ago, Trov said:

Baseball reference does not have yesterdays game log in yet.  However, going into that game, Pagan numbers are not great, but not as bad as some may think.  Griffin Jax has similar, if not worse numbers than Pagan, but I do not see people calling for DFA Jax.  I am not saying I want Pagan pitching over Jax, but the numbers are similar.  Jax had a FIP of 2.55, going into yesterday.  Pagan had FIP of 2.03.  Yes, he had a very bad outing yesterday, giving up a bases loaded walk, and his first HR of season, but he was out there because pen was taxed, Gray had a short start, and lets not forget we had bases loaded 0 out, and did nothing with it.  The loss is not just on Pagan.  If you want to be objective on numbers, maybe Jax should be looked at being sent down as well, if you want to get rid of Pagan.  Guys will have bad outings, and Pagan has had more than his fair share, but he generally is being asked to fill not high leverage roll, but had to yesterday because of heavy pen use the two prior days. 

I don't disagree with any of this, but sometimes you just gotta move on. The events of the past 12 hours have actually caused me to research Ron Davis, to confirm if he was really as bad as we thought he was back in the day. He was remembered for spectacular and predicable failures at the backend of the bullpen. 

Pagan=Ron Davis for me.

[LastOnePicked]

I can't imagine what this is doing to team morale. Twins are trying to battle in a tough spot, only to watch Pagan come in and ruin crucial game after crucial game. It's 2022 all over again.

The FO has made some good moves in their time here, but every good move seems to be followed by a worse mistake. They likely won't release Pagan, and this certainly won't be his last soul-crushing outing this year.

[Dman]

It seems like our relievers lack confidence in big time situations.  Lopez walking in the winning run, Pagan walking guys when put in high leverage situations.  It is like he is ready to crap his pants when in a tough situation.  The whole pen has been walking too many guys this year and it has hurt them in the end.  Jax is walking too many guys.  Moran is walking too many guys.  Trust your stuff guys.  Either you have it or you don't at least make them earn their way on.

The thing I really don't like about Pagan is his penchant for giving up the long ball after uncompetively walking guys. He comes out and can't throw strikes?  I mean doesn't he work on that on a daily basis?  Hard for me to see him as a pro some games especially in high leverage.  

Having said all that who do we really have other than wasting Headrick as a reliever that will be much better than Pagan? Winder was brutal when up. Henriquez isn't ready. I don't trust Schulfer. I don't like Sands and we have suffered with him already.  Dobnak wouldn't be any better.  Balazovich isn't ready as he was a head case just last year and can have control issues as well.  There just isn't anything much better than Pagan at the moment that I can see.  

Pagan has been fine in most low leverage opportunities this year I think the lesson learned is do not at all costs put him in high leverage situations he mentally just can't handle it.

[DJL44]

To replace him they need a better option. Giving the job to Balazovic based on 18 innings where he's walked 11 batters is laughable. DeLeon isn't the answer either. Cole Sands has not impressed. Alcala has struggled. Winder is awful at the moment. The cupboard is bare. They didn't address the bullpen when it only cost money during the offseason so they're going to have to pay for relief help with prospects if they want an improvement.

[Mark G]

While I thought this was a very good article overall, I do wonder about the end a little bit.  If there are multiple arms in St. Paul we should be looking at over Pagan, and they were doing well enough to call up, why did we choose Jose De Leon?  A 30 year old with 23 career major league games (and an 8 1/2 ERA to boot)?  A good month and a half in AAA so far was enough for him to leap frog the other prospects, so maybe we aren't that deep in St. Paul, or deep enough to jettison Pagan?  Or, for that matter, Moran.  

We have a lot of good prospects, but they are just that at this point in time.  As much as he makes me nervous every time he takes the mound, you would think if there was anyone behind him that was better he would already be here.  But, please, stop using him in close games!

[USAFChief]

Pagan is just today's manifestation of the real issue: the failure to address a thin bullpen over the winter. 

Now it's too late. You're stuck with what you have (2 deep in the pen, hopefully a little from Thielbar at some point) until July at least, when you'll pay a premium for the few if any real upgrades that come available.

 

 

[jmlease1]

7 minutes ago, Dman said:

The thing I really don't like about Pagan is his penchant for giving up the long ball after uncompetively walking guys. He comes out and can't throw strikes?  I mean doesn't he work on that on a daily basis?  Hard for me to see him as a pro some games especially in high leverage.  

Having said all that who do we really have other than wasting Headrick as a reliever that will be much better than Pagan? Winder was brutal when up. Henriquez isn't ready. I don't trust Schulfer. I don't like Sands and we have suffered with him already.  Dobnak wouldn't be any better.  Balazovich isn't ready as he was head case just last year and can have control issues as well.  There just isn't anything much better than Pagan at the moment that I can see.  

Pagan has been fine in most low leverage opportunities this year I think the lesson learned is do not at all costs put him in high leverage situations he mentally just can't handle it.

Well, this is why Pagan isn't a late-inning reliever. When he's wild and can't find the zone, the only way he has to get a strike is to drop a meatball over the heart of the plate. He's ok as a middle inning guy who can get 1+ innings for you of relatively low leverage work that probably needs to be yanked quickly if he's not throwing strikes, because he's liable to have that blowup inning when he gets lit up trying to throw a "get over" pitch. I don't know that it's really mental?

I didn't want Pagan on this team this year because a) I didn't think he was going to be significantly better, b) the PTSD for the fanbase didn't make it worth the cost or the roster spot, and c) I thought there were plenty of veteran RH relief arms available in FA that were at least as good and had far less baggage. That opinion hasn't changed much, but cutting him because he blew the game last night doesn't really help much.

he's been adequate as a middle inning guy so far. He blew last night, but before that he actually had a positive WPA. The FIP was very good, and in 11 of his 15 appearances before last night, he hadn't given up any runs. (before this west coast trip, he'd actually dropped his ERA back under 4, which was pretty good considering he had to eat a bad outing in Boston when Maeda got hurt) he is who we thought he'd be, really.

The bigger issue is Alcala and Thielbar are hurt, Jax has been disappointing, and Moran is inconsistent so Pagan has been forced to work in higher leverage situations than he's really capable of. Unfortunately, not enough of the relief options from AAA have impressed (Stewart is ok, but is a little like Moran in his wildness). Winder and Sands have both disappointed, Rodriguez and De Leon look like just another guy, so that leaves Pagan doing work in situations where none of us are comfortable.

Not doing more to support the bullpen is on the front office. It's probably the biggest miss this season from them really, because they could have done something for limited cost that would have shored things up. I understand why they thought they had this covered, but they've always had too much faith in Pagan's peripherals and "stuff".

[DJL44]

Any update on Maeda? He's been out 3 weeks with a triceps injury.

[Muppet]

The season is long. All players have their ups and downs and deserve a little patience. That said, DFA the MF ASAP. 

[2wins87]

They actually kind of need him in the back end of the bullpen.  The other guys in that role have been pretty unreliable too, and I think it's a role he's at least well suited for.

The problem is that they sometimes need him in higher leverage situations, and he really is predictably worse in high leverage.

From the eye test, it feels like he's a different pitcher with those 1-run leads.  It's just nibble around the edges until he can't afford to anymore and then a meatball.

Normally I would write off most splits by leverage to random luck, but for his career he has a .665 OPS against in low leverage, .657 in medium leverage, and .848 in high leverage.  A somewhat similar split has been present in every year of his career, and now it's emerged again this year.  It's hard believe it's all random luck at this point.

Did Pagan have to be used in that situation?  I have to think Duran and Lopez both should have been available so Baldelli was probably planning to use them in the 8th and 9th.  I think he was trying to avoid going an inning plus with one of them, probably Lopez in particular who had pitched both Sunday and Monday and threw a moderately high 26 pitches on Monday.

I think if I really want to win the game I'd try to get Duran to go an inning and a third finishing off the 7th and then go to Lopez in the 9th.  It's May, so I get not going all out, but it's still a frustrating loss to watch.

It'd almost been long enough to forget how much I hate watching Pagan with close leads, then we got this all too familiar performance.

[Jkeady12]

This was easily the most avoidable issue on the roster EVERYONE  screamed no when th FO resigned him. This was 100% predictable.  Maybe even worse was Our "managers" insistance in using him in high leverage situations.  Can we DFA Rocco. He is the worst late game manager I have ever seen.  Many late inning and extra inning losses can be attributed to him.SMH

[chpettit19]

Pagan has only given up an earned run in 4 of 16 appearances this year. That's not bad. We have to separate last year from this year a little bit. He hasn't been blowing lead after lead this year. He's only blown 1. But that's because he hasn't been given leads to hold. 

This is not a "save Pagan!" post, but I want to be realistic about who he's been this year, and who he's most likely to be moving forward. Pagan is perfectly fine as a low-leverage, only used when trailing, or crushing, in games reliever (and you need those guys for a 162 game season). He's absolutely not someone the team should ever trust in a high-leverage situation, and should only be used there in emergencies. I can understand why they went with him only needing to get 1 out last night, and not wanting to use Lopez or Duran for 1 out, then a down and up for a second inning after they'd both thrown rather significant amounts recently. 

Yesterday was a perfect storm of an overused pen mixed with the offense going completely dead with the bases loaded again mixed with Sonny being incredibly wild and inefficient. That lead to them needing to use DeLeon (who I thought actually looked nasty and he may be an interesting guy to give a shot to as a lightning in a bottle reliever for 2023) more than they'd like to have, and Pagan at all.

All this being said, Pagan absolutely can't be on a playoff roster. There's some blowouts in the playoffs, and you really don't want to use your studs in those games, but you can't waste a roster spot on a guy you'd absolutely never want to put into a close playoff game. I'm not going to freak out if they don't DFA Pagan today (and I've been calling for them to DFA him since last season), but as they approach the ASB, and trade deadline, they absolutely need to fill his spot with someone better.

I'm ok with Pagan holding down his multi-inning, mop up role for another month or 2 as long as he continues to be successful in those situations. They need to be using that time to find 6-8 other guys they'd trust in a playoff game, though. They need to be working to improve upon him, and be looking for his replacement. The 2nd half of the season needs to be played without Pagan, or anyone, on the roster (outside of injury needs) that they wouldn't play in a 1 run playoff game. The next 2 months is all about finding your best 26 guys, maintaining reasonable depth behind them, and making sure those 26 guys are playoff worthy. Pagan doesn't have to go today, but he has to go before August.

[chpettit19]

19 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Any update on Maeda? He's been out 3 weeks with a triceps injury.

Playing catch/long-toss, but not on a mound yet last I saw. If I remember correctly he's planning to get on a mound this weekend.

[Fatbat]

2 hours ago, kenneth frank said:

I believe the real issue was when the Twins failed to score with the bases loaded and nobody out in the top half of the inning (:

Does the lack of offense (which itself is an issue) actually have to take the blame for a guy that admitted that he lost focus of his job? 

[Vanimal46]

13 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Pagan has only given up an earned run in 4 of 16 appearances this year. That's not bad. We have to separate last year from this year a little bit. He hasn't been blowing lead after lead this year. He's only blown 1. But that's because he hasn't been given leads to hold. 

This is not a "save Pagan!" post, but I want to be realistic about who he's been this year, and who he's most likely to be moving forward. Pagan is perfectly fine as a low-leverage, only used when trailing, or crushing, in games reliever (and you need those guys for a 162 game season). He's absolutely not someone the team should ever trust in a high-leverage situation, and should only be used there in emergencies. I can understand why they went with him only needing to get 1 out last night, and not wanting to use Lopez or Duran for 1 out, then a down and up for a second inning after they'd both thrown rather significant amounts recently. 

Yesterday was a perfect storm of an overused pen mixed with the offense going completely dead with the bases loaded again mixed with Sonny being incredibly wild and inefficient. That lead to them needing to use DeLeon (who I thought actually looked nasty and he may be an interesting guy to give a shot to as a lightning in a bottle reliever for 2023) more than they'd like to have, and Pagan at all.

All this being said, Pagan absolutely can't be on a playoff roster. There's some blowouts in the playoffs, and you really don't want to use your studs in those games, but you can't waste a roster spot on a guy you'd absolutely never want to put into a close playoff game. I'm not going to freak out if they don't DFA Pagan today (and I've been calling for them to DFA him since last season), but as they approach the ASB, and trade deadline, they absolutely need to fill his spot with someone better.

I'm ok with Pagan holding down his multi-inning, mop up role for another month or 2 as long as he continues to be successful in those situations. They need to be using that time to find 6-8 other guys they'd trust in a playoff game, though. They need to be working to improve upon him, and be looking for his replacement. The 2nd half of the season needs to be played without Pagan, or anyone, on the roster (outside of injury needs) that they wouldn't play in a 1 run playoff game. The next 2 months is all about finding your best 26 guys, maintaining reasonable depth behind them, and making sure those 26 guys are playoff worthy. Pagan doesn't have to go today, but he has to go before August.

Good post and I concur. Pagan is a vast majority of fans’ favorite punching bag. Unfortunately for him, the damage is already done and no amount of perfect innings is going to change the perception of him in a Twins uniform. 

For the most part, Pagan is fine in his low leverage role. Hopefully now that we’re 25% through the year, we start shuttling more prospects into the pen and see who catches fire. 

[jmlease1]

18 minutes ago, Jkeady12 said:

This was easily the most avoidable issue on the roster EVERYONE  screamed no when th FO resigned him. This was 100% predictable.  Maybe even worse was Our "managers" insistance in using him in high leverage situations.  Can we DFA Rocco. He is the worst late game manager I have ever seen.  Many late inning and extra inning losses can be attributed to him.SMH

Please show your receipts. he's been pitching in the 7th lately (with our starters usually going 6 innings, that's when relief starts) and his later inning work has been things like pitching the 11th when the bullpen was empty or finishing off the 9th when we were down 6. 13 of his 16 appearances have been when we were losing or ahead by 4+ runs.

not exactly sure how this is a Rocco failure.

[Blyleven2011]

The boys of summer  ...

Boys will be boys ...

They need to stand tall and be men ...

 

[CRF]

If all you're going to use him for, are low leverage/mop up situations, then I'd be ok with keeping him around for a little longer. No way can he be trusted in a situation like yesterday, no matter what the availability is of other pen arms. He will absolutely let the team down in anything other than mop up duty. Preferably, I'd LOVE to see him elsewhere, but for some reason this FO wants to keep him here. He really needs a fresh start on another team, and we need to be rid of him. 

[Beast]

It’s not just Pagan, although the should’ve been gone long ago.

The entire pen stinks.  Duran is all we have.  Even Lopez, who had been good, can’t be trusted.  I’d bet anything he unravels at some point this year, like he did last year.

The FO needs to figure out how to get a serviceable bullpen cobbled together.  None of the good things with the lineup and rotation matter if our pen gives up 3+ runs every night.