Time for Twins to Address the Elephant in the Room

[Riverbrian]

Low Leverage will pop up on occasion but not often enough to hide anyone in the bullpen waiting for safe harbor to throw.

Low leverage will be even more rare in consideration of our offensive output this year, yes we've had a nice offensive explosion the past few games but it would be incredibly brave to conclude that our offensive issues are over. We will need to win some more 3-2 and 2-1 games in the future is my guess.   

This means that it will be high leverage the majority of the time when the starter reaches his limit. The offense simply hasn't created breathing room consistently enough. Pagan will see high leverage again as long as he is on the roster. 

Plus

If Duran is going to be utilized as a traditional closer and it appears to be the approach they are taking with him this season. Duran isn't going to be an option in situations like last night because they are going to save him for traditional closer situations.  

Spots #2 through #7 have to be trusted. 

If the front office trusts Pagan... OK. I'm not sure why they would but if they do... OK.

We will see how it turns out.   

 

[Jkeady12]

He has a 5.67 ERA 20 hits in 17 innings , he has been in high leverage situations and failed, not just this year but last year to. You have to look at the totality of his time in Minnesota, that is Rocco's fault because he uses him in those situations.  You are telling me that there is no one else in the organization that we can not replace him with? Even if they bring someone else up with similar results it is a young pitcher getting innings for the future. There was no reason to keep Pagan there are numerous options instead of him. Show me when he has ever been consistent. Hope you remember your defense of him the next time he implodes. PS. he walked his first 2 batters before giving up a grand slam. 

[Brazilian Twins Fan]

You all can defend Pagan as much as you want. He is not a good pitcher and he hasn't been able to have good results. This is a fact. Period.

If we're talking about not having a replacement for him, he is by far our smallest problem.

[Rosterman]

Not sure "why": took out De Leon. He is, after all, a long relief guy. Started the inning with six strikes against two top hitters. Hits do happen.

Not like Pagan is the for sure shutdown guy (as we saw).

[Trov]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

Pagan has only given up an earned run in 4 of 16 appearances this year. That's not bad. We have to separate last year from this year a little bit. He hasn't been blowing lead after lead this year. He's only blown 1. But that's because he hasn't been given leads to hold. 

This is not a "save Pagan!" post, but I want to be realistic about who he's been this year, and who he's most likely to be moving forward. Pagan is perfectly fine as a low-leverage, only used when trailing, or crushing, in games reliever (and you need those guys for a 162 game season). He's absolutely not someone the team should ever trust in a high-leverage situation, and should only be used there in emergencies. I can understand why they went with him only needing to get 1 out last night, and not wanting to use Lopez or Duran for 1 out, then a down and up for a second inning after they'd both thrown rather significant amounts recently. 

Yesterday was a perfect storm of an overused pen mixed with the offense going completely dead with the bases loaded again mixed with Sonny being incredibly wild and inefficient. That lead to them needing to use DeLeon (who I thought actually looked nasty and he may be an interesting guy to give a shot to as a lightning in a bottle reliever for 2023) more than they'd like to have, and Pagan at all.

All this being said, Pagan absolutely can't be on a playoff roster. There's some blowouts in the playoffs, and you really don't want to use your studs in those games, but you can't waste a roster spot on a guy you'd absolutely never want to put into a close playoff game. I'm not going to freak out if they don't DFA Pagan today (and I've been calling for them to DFA him since last season), but as they approach the ASB, and trade deadline, they absolutely need to fill his spot with someone better.

I'm ok with Pagan holding down his multi-inning, mop up role for another month or 2 as long as he continues to be successful in those situations. They need to be using that time to find 6-8 other guys they'd trust in a playoff game, though. They need to be working to improve upon him, and be looking for his replacement. The 2nd half of the season needs to be played without Pagan, or anyone, on the roster (outside of injury needs) that they wouldn't play in a 1 run playoff game. The next 2 months is all about finding your best 26 guys, maintaining reasonable depth behind them, and making sure those 26 guys are playoff worthy. Pagan doesn't have to go today, but he has to go before August.

This was really the point I was trying to make in my post doing a comparison to Jax.  I know Pagan was terrible overall last year, but this year he has had only a couple of blow ups.  Sure, we would love a full pen of closer potential arms, but that just will not happen.  I would understand if we cut him, but overall we need guys to eat up an inning or two when our high leverage guys have been used. 

[OvertheHill]

1 minute ago, Trov said:

This was really the point I was trying to make in my post doing a comparison to Jax.  I know Pagan was terrible overall last year, but this year he has had only a couple of blow ups.  Sure, we would love a full pen of closer potential arms, but that just will not happen.  I would understand if we cut him, but overall we need guys to eat up an inning or two when our high leverage guys have been used. 

Agree with this, it's just I'd rather that the inning eater guys be someone with a possible future with the organization and/or guys we need to learn something about. 

[TwinsDr2021]

11 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Spots #2 through #7 have to be trusted. 

 

 

Not sure that is possible, does any team have that? You do need at least 3 and up to 5 would be awesome. The problem isn't who Rocco puts in (IMO) it is the idea of using a pitcher for just 1 innings, Which works great like in the begging of the season when the starts were all going 6 innings, but when you have a couple of starters falter you have to change that up and let some guy go longer. For example Monday's game down 5 - 2, Stewart only goes 1.1, then basically it was going to be a 1 inning guy each of the next innings, which might have been fine but it went 12. Down 5 - 2, they should have brought a pitcher in that they expected to go at least 2 innings, probably 3, even if they give up a run or two who cares, you can't blow up your pen for one games, because it ends up costing you in others as well.

[strumdatjag]

2 hours ago, OvertheHill said:

I don't disagree with any of this, but sometimes you just gotta move on. The events of the past 12 hours have actually caused me to research Ron Davis, to confirm if he was really as bad as we thought he was back in the day. He was remembered for spectacular and predicable failures at the backend of the bullpen. 

Pagan=Ron Davis for me.

Many years ago, in reference to another disappointing player, a fan once said, “At least Ron Davis took kids fishing!”  

[KirbyDome89]

 

3 hours ago, Trov said:

Baseball reference does not have yesterdays game log in yet.  However, going into that game, Pagan numbers are not great, but not as bad as some may think.  Griffin Jax has similar, if not worse numbers than Pagan, but I do not see people calling for DFA Jax.  I am not saying I want Pagan pitching over Jax, but the numbers are similar.  Jax had a FIP of 2.55, going into yesterday.  Pagan had FIP of 2.03.  Yes, he had a very bad outing yesterday, giving up a bases loaded walk, and his first HR of season, but he was out there because pen was taxed, Gray had a short start, and lets not forget we had bases loaded 0 out, and did nothing with it.  The loss is not just on Pagan.  If you want to be objective on numbers, maybe Jax should be looked at being sent down as well, if you want to get rid of Pagan.  Guys will have bad outings, and Pagan has had more than his fair share, but he generally is being asked to fill not high leverage roll, but had to yesterday because of heavy pen use the two prior days. 

Probably because Jax hasn't been one of the worst relief pitchers in baseball the previous three seasons. 

[SwainZag]

Meh.  Pagan has given up more than 1 run in 2 of his 16 outings and last night was the first long ball he has allowed this year.  Yes, both of those innings were blow ups, but overall he has been pretty effective this season.  Yes, both outings were major blow ups, but a much bigger elephant in the room to me is the lack of hitting with the bases loaded.  

I am not saying I trust the guy in tight situations, but the team has bigger problems at the moment.

[Riverbrian]

4 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Not sure that is possible, does any team have that? You do need at least 3 and up to 5 would be awesome. The problem isn't who Rocco puts in (IMO) it is the idea of using a pitcher for just 1 innings, Which works great like in the begging of the season when the starts were all going 6 innings, but when you have a couple of starters falter you have to change that up and let some guy go longer. For example Monday's game down 5 - 2, Stewart only goes 1.1, then basically it was going to be a 1 inning guy each of the next innings, which might have been fine but it went 12. Down 5 - 2, they should have brought a pitcher in that they expected to go at least 2 innings, probably 3, even if they give up a run or two who cares, you can't blow up your pen for one games, because it ends up costing you in others as well.

Does any team have that? 

It's hard but you have to keep working toward it by culling from the bottom. To find the teams that have it or are closer to it, simply sort by bullpen ERA or WHIP or whatever weapon of choice. The teams will low bullpen metrics at the top of the pile will reveal themselves. The top 3 arms in any bullpen will still only throw 50% of bullpen innings. You need a village to keep those overall village numbers down.    

Orioles, Mariners, Astros, Yankees and Guardians are pretty deep effective pens.  

The Orioles are interesting because 2 of those guys were ours once. The Mariners are interesting because they have a couple of good relievers on the injured list but keep humming along. Nobody has recognizable names, maybe the Guardians have some recognizable names but it's not like they are loaded with high dollar proven guys.    

 

[twinsfan02]

Relievers will have bad outings, give up a run or 2 here and their it is part of the game. Pagan however, consistently has bad outings and they aren't just bad outing bad, they are implosion bad. Majority of the time he comes in to pitch they are not even competitive at bats. He gets behind in the count or gets rocked by triple digit exit velos. There is absolutely no excuse for why he is still on the roster anymore. It baffles me.

[rwilfong86]

3 hours ago, specialiststeve said:

The other elephant in the room is Rocco and his use of the bullpen... he is the other one that needs to go.

He is just not a good manager.. period.

Along with the questionable pinch hitting decisions we've seen an abundance of.

[KirbyDome89]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Pagan is perfectly fine as a low-leverage, only used when trailing, or crushing, in games reliever (and you need those guys for a 162 game season). He's absolutely not someone the team should ever trust in a high-leverage situation, and should only be used there in emergencies.

The issue is that Moran and Sands fit this description (maybe minus the "perfectly," that preceded fine) as well. Sure, you need somebody who can eat up innings over the course of a season, but you can't carry three guys who have zero business handling any type of leverage. We have no clue what De Leon is, and Brock Stewart has issued 9 free passes in 9.2 innings. Those are the 4/5? 

Idk if I'd wait until the deadline to address Pagan's role. If they're just going to spoon feed him the lowest possible leverage I'd start the auditions early.  

[I Never Bet On Sports]

 

[chpettit19]

4 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

The issue is that Moran and Sands fit this description (maybe minus the "perfectly," that preceded fine) as well. Sure, you need somebody who can eat up innings over the course of a season, but you can't carry three guys who have zero business handling any type of leverage. We have no clue what De Leon is, and Brock Stewart has issued 9 free passes in 9.2 innings. Those are the 4/5? 

Idk if I'd wait until the deadline to address Pagan's role. If they're just going to spoon feed him the lowest possible leverage I'd start the auditions early.  

Don't disagree at all. The pen overall needs a lot of improvement. But if we're just looking at Pagan we have to acknowledge that he's filled his role well this year. It's not his fault (or Rocco's for that matter) that the FO have also planted numerous other guys in the pen that shouldn't be asked to do more than the role he's in. The pen is bad. They went in with 4 guys they "trusted" for high leverage work, and are hoping those 4 stay effective and healthy while they find 2 to 4 other guys who can be "trusted." So far 1 of their 4 is hurt, and another is having a weird season (Jax) where he hasn't pitched terribly, but also hasn't been effective, and they haven't found anyone else to step into a high leverage role. It's bad bullpen planning, even with the acknowledgement that relievers are fickle beings who are very hard to predict.

I'm not suggesting they wait til the deadline to address Pagan, or the pen in general. But they're limited at this point of the season outside of cycling through AAA guys, which they're already doing. They can call the Royals about Chapman, but there aren't a lot of teams willing to make trades in May when it's really hard to build up a bidding war. At this point their main option is to keep throwing Stewart, etc. out there and see if any of them grab a job. I don't have super high hopes, but this is the bed they made. There was a reason almost all of us were confused by their stance all offseason of not needing to upgrade the pen.

[Hubie29]

I have a hard time deciding which would be better. Keep having bullpen implodes so we don't make the playoffs and Rocco gets fired. Or correcting the problem and being a winning team. 

[wornsmooth]

1 hour ago, Beast said:

It’s not just Pagan, although the should’ve been gone long ago.

The entire pen stinks.  Duran is all we have.  Even Lopez, who had been good, can’t be trusted.  I’d bet anything he unravels at some point this year, like he did last year.

The FO needs to figure out how to get a serviceable bullpen cobbled together.  None of the good things with the lineup and rotation matter if our pen gives up 3+ runs every night.

Question.

If the starter is doing ok, why is it some sort of law of physics to pull him after 6 innings?

The Twins have a rotation of 5 starters. Why can't they throw complete games?

 

[howeda7]

4 hours ago, Nine of twelve said:

When the Twins made the decision to keep Pagan on staff I was open minded about it. I assumed that the FO and on-field people felt that he could be effective with proper coaching and proper use. And I thought it was the right thing to do to give him opportunities to prove himself. While he has mostly done OK, when things have gone bad for him things have gone very bad. Every reliever on a team with championship aspirations needs to be able to do the job in any situation and it seems to me that he is simply not reliable enough. I think the time has come to thank him for his service and wish him the best of luck in his future elsewhere.

If he was still a minimum salary player, maybe you could justify bringing him back.  Bringing back one of the worst relievers in the league for $4 million? That was never justifiable. Not non-tendering him was a joke, but they did it because their ego wouldn't let Falvey admit he made a horrible trade and move on.

[howeda7]

1 hour ago, Jkeady12 said:

He has a 5.67 ERA 20 hits in 17 innings , he has been in high leverage situations and failed, not just this year but last year to. You have to look at the totality of his time in Minnesota, that is Rocco's fault because he uses him in those situations.  You are telling me that there is no one else in the organization that we can not replace him with? Even if they bring someone else up with similar results it is a young pitcher getting innings for the future. There was no reason to keep Pagan there are numerous options instead of him. Show me when he has ever been consistent. Hope you remember your defense of him the next time he implodes. PS. he walked his first 2 batters before giving up a grand slam. 

He was terrible his last year in SD too. He had one good year in Tampa about 4 years ago. That's it. The guy is simply not good and there's no justification for him to remain on the roster.

[LA Vikes Fan]

Add the drop in velo to his performance and I get an idea? Maybe his shoulder or elbow is starting to go. How about we IL the guy for 15 days, and then rehab him in AAA for 20 days. Things may sort out with the present AAA guys to see if we have a replacement over the next month. Just a thought. 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

4 hours ago, Trov said:

Baseball reference does not have yesterdays game log in yet.  However, going into that game, Pagan numbers are not great, but not as bad as some may think.  Griffin Jax has similar, if not worse numbers than Pagan, but I do not see people calling for DFA Jax.  I am not saying I want Pagan pitching over Jax, but the numbers are similar.  Jax had a FIP of 2.55, going into yesterday.  Pagan had FIP of 2.03.  Yes, he had a very bad outing yesterday, giving up a bases loaded walk, and his first HR of season, but he was out there because pen was taxed, Gray had a short start, and lets not forget we had bases loaded 0 out, and did nothing with it.  The loss is not just on Pagan.  If you want to be objective on numbers, maybe Jax should be looked at being sent down as well, if you want to get rid of Pagan.  Guys will have bad outings, and Pagan has had more than his fair share, but he generally is being asked to fill not high leverage roll, but had to yesterday because of heavy pen use the two prior days. 

Don't bring logic to this discussion.  I was looking at the same information.  He has essentially had two really bad outings all year, but otherwise has been pretty solid.  

Lots of vitriol here. I think that Pagan could roll of 25 IP of perfect pitching and most of the fans would still be calling for his head.  Lots of Ron Davis vibes here...

Anybody know what kind of clubhouse guy he is?  Anybody stop to think that innings may not be the only reason he is on the roster?

[Craig Arko]

In 87 there were basically two trusted relievers: Reardon and Berenguer.

In 91 there were basically two trusted relievers: Aguilera and Willis.

Pretty much the rest were cobbled together. It happens; sometimes it works. Of course, most times it doesn’t. And teams didn’t lean on the bullpen as heavily as they do now.

I’d still estimate 3-4 is the best one can expect.

[Mike Sixel]

Twins pen is league median....not great, but not a disaster. Some people seem to expect the FO to build the best team at every position, which seems unrealistic to me. YMMV, of course. Overall they have the best pitching staff in the game, which, sure, you can still complain if you want. That's your right, of course.

[bighat]

3 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

For the most part, Pagan is fine in his low leverage role. 

As Twins fans, we've let our expectations become so low that we think a guy who can ONLY pitch in low-leverage games where the score is 9-1 is "fine". 

Every bullpen pitcher should absolutely be able to go into a 3-2 game and get 3 outs. All of them. If they can't do that, they should not be on anyone's major league roster. 

Keeping Pagan so he can pitch for the Twins in blowouts is a complete waste of a roster spot. This is not a special or valuable skill in any way. 

[Reptevia]

You can’t point at Pagán without pointing at others. This:  “This is the fourth game in which Emilio Pagán has lowered the Twins' win probability by at least 50% since the start of last season. All other #MNTwins relievers have combined for six such games over that time and no one else has done it more than twice.”

makes no sense. Pretty sure Jax has lowered our win probability by 100% on the way to his FIVE losses!  Pagán is 3-1.   Overall, the BP is 6-11. I know,I know, wins and losses don’t matter, Grandpa!  

[Vanimal46]

2 minutes ago, bighat said:

As Twins fans, we've let our expectations become so low that we think a guy who can ONLY pitch in low-leverage games where the score is 9-1 is "fine". 

Every bullpen pitcher should absolutely be able to go into a 3-2 game and get 3 outs. All of them. If they can't do that, they should not be on anyone's major league roster. 

Keeping Pagan so he can pitch for the Twins in blowouts is a complete waste of a roster spot. This is not a special or valuable skill in any way. 

Every MLB team has 2 or 3 relievers for low leverage outings. There isn’t one team that has 8 high leverage shut down relievers. 

[KirbyDome89]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

Don't disagree at all. The pen overall needs a lot of improvement. But if we're just looking at Pagan we have to acknowledge that he's filled his role well this year. It's not his fault (or Rocco's for that matter) that the FO have also planted numerous other guys in the pen that shouldn't be asked to do more than the role he's in. The pen is bad. They went in with 4 guys they "trusted" for high leverage work, and are hoping those 4 stay effective and healthy while they find 2 to 4 other guys who can be "trusted." So far 1 of their 4 is hurt, and another is having a weird season (Jax) where he hasn't pitched terribly, but also hasn't been effective, and they haven't found anyone else to step into a high leverage role. It's bad bullpen planning, even with the acknowledgement that relievers are fickle beings who are very hard to predict.

I'm not suggesting they wait til the deadline to address Pagan, or the pen in general. But they're limited at this point of the season outside of cycling through AAA guys, which they're already doing. They can call the Royals about Chapman, but there aren't a lot of teams willing to make trades in May when it's really hard to build up a bidding war. At this point their main option is to keep throwing Stewart, etc. out there and see if any of them grab a job. I don't have super high hopes, but this is the bed they made. There was a reason almost all of us were confused by their stance all offseason of not needing to upgrade the pen.

No doubt it's not a great situation, and you didn't have to squint in the offseason to see it playing out this way. 

Yeah, I'd cycle Pagan's spot and like you said, hope somebody grabs that job. They're going to have to hand hold either way, so IMO you might as well get a head start. 

[SwainZag]

20 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Twins pen is league median....not great, but not a disaster. Some people seem to expect the FO to build the best team at every position, which seems unrealistic to me. YMMV, of course. Overall they have the best pitching staff in the game, which, sure, you can still complain if you want. That's your right, of course.

Pretty much between 10th and 12th in major relief pitching category.  It could be better, but it could surely be worse.  

[chpettit19]

3 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

No doubt it's not a great situation, and you didn't have to squint in the offseason to see it playing out this way. 

Yeah, I'd cycle Pagan's spot and like you said, hope somebody grabs that job. They're going to have to hand hold either way, so IMO you might as well get a head start. 

It'd be better for our collective heart health if they moved on from him, even if the new guys are worse.