I Never Bet On Sports

Valdez comes with baggage which is contributing to why he is not signed. I could envision him signing a one year deal to distance himself from the crossing up his catcher debacle and the qualifying offer. The Pohlads love a bargain. If they could sign him to a $15-20MM base contract with innings incentives that get him closer to $30MM the Twins would be able to flip him at the deadline if they are not competitive having only spent $9-12MM up to that point. If he does well the return would most likely be better than the draft pick they have to give up to sign him. Low probability of this happening, but there is a path to someone signing him to a one year deal. Why not the Twins?

Last summer when the Twiins announced they were no longer selling the team I cancelled my Twins TV renewal. Went to Twins home page today to see how to sign up for this year. Nothing, Broadcast FAQ? blank, From a business standpoint, which Falvey was running, it seems ridiculoous that this late they don't have a plan you can sign up for advertised yet or at least an announcement date teaser. Falvine was a welcome new direction 9 years ago, I appreciate what he and Thad did then, but it seems like it was time for him to go - I could never figure out what the strategy was other than - let's wait to see what falls in our lap.

This team has reached rock bottom and has started to dig.... Yet, I can't stop following, can't stop watching condensed games every morning, and have now transitioned to checking Tankathon as my first website of the day. Second in draft lottery position. Could we close another 8 games with the WhiteSox in the next 20 and become 1st? That is all that's left for me this season.

The White Sox were carrying a streak of 0 - 205 when trailing after 8 innings before last night. Twins response: Hold my beer. On the bright side, the Twins are now in second place for the 2026 draft lottery passing the Pirates with the late inning collapse.

Really appreciate this article. Would like to know who from the rest of the Twins organization will need to be added to the 40 man this offseason or be rule 5 eligible as well. By my calculations the Twins have 41 players on the 40 man (including injured Pablo Lopez) which includes the three mentioned above (Outman, Abel, Bradley). Vazquez will not be back so that puts the Twins at 40. If they add Rojas that's 41, 42 if also add Mendez. How many and who from the current organization need to be added this offseason or be eligible for the Rule 5? Assume Topa, Urenas, and Ramirez will not be back as well opens up 3 spots. I just can't find a list of who becomes eligible this offseason.

A Case for Piggybacking I would like to see the Twins take their top 7 starters and piggy back 2 of the 5 rotation spots. 4/25 Pablo 4/26 SWR/Zebby Piggyback 4/27 Ryan 4/28 Ober 4/29 Paddack/Festa Piggyback Assuming a standard 5 starter / 8 reliever staff with starters averaging 5.25 innings per start you need releivers to pick up the remaining 2.75 innings per game. That equates to 170 innings per starter spot and 74 innings per reliever spot on the roster (Every team uses more pitchers throughout a season so individual innings pitched will be lower but per spot on active roster this holds true) I am assuming that the piggy back combined will average 8 innings per start combined so an extra 2.75 x32 starts = 88 innings for the piggy back. This impacts your average innings per reliever spot as follows 5 starters 8 reliever spots average 74 innings per season 1 Piggy back 7 reliever spots average 71.6 innings per season 2 Piggyback 6 reliever spots average 68.9 innings per season I would suggest that the Piggy back pitcher always starts a clean inning, such that if the starter struggles you bring in a reliver to finish that inning and the piggy back starts the next clean inning. Spacing the two piggy back spots should allow for better bullpen management as you should get two low usage days out of every five starts. This also moves Zebby and Festa into the majors. If you ever need to skip a start for one of your pitchers you could split a piggy back up for one time through the rotation. Alcala most likely to be sent down. Second choice is tougher.

Interesting article, a lot to digest. A few questions: I can't tell what ultimately led to the ranking of the top 5 for clutch hitting. How did you combine the three metrics listed to form an overall ranking system? I can't figure out why anyone is ranked higher or lower than the others from the data presented. What am I missing? Non Competitive Pitch Data Help Requested In watching the Twins this first series I felt that the Twins swing on non-competitive pitches far more than our opponents but can't find any definitive measure of this. Fangraphs has an article measure based on pitches 2.5 feet from the center of the strike zone. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/revisiting-the-non-competitive-pitch/ This allows you to compare pitchers % of really bad pitches, but it does not lend itself to a measure of how much a batter chases pitches that are well outside the zone. Yes, chase rate helps, but doesn't offer the ability to look at really bad chases vs marginal chases. I am thinking that pitches 6-8 inches or more from the edge of the strike zone resulted in Twins swinging and missing quite often (both of Buxton's 3-2 strikeouts Sunday were non-competitive pitches). In contrast, it seemed that Cardinal batters rarely swung at pitches that far out of the zone (and there seemed to be a lot of them from Lopez and Ober), I remember feeling this way many times last season, but can't find any metrics or data that would confirm or refute my theory. Looking for help here. Does anyone know of a measure that would help me analyze this for validity? Does anyone else feel there is a significant difference between chases on non-competitive pitches for the Twins vs. their opponents? Any advice on where to look would be welcomed.

Bader in left to me is a class move by Rocco. Bader started his career here in this stadium. He knows the park well and it is great to see him get the opening day start. I can agree with the other options - Larnach in left instead with Julien DH or Kiersey in left would work also. I just have no problem with him in the lineup. Won't be surprised to see Kiersey in right to end the game if we have a lead to protect.

I agree Gasper is doing better than the others, but I think the Twins will want both Lee and Julien to get regular, substantial playing time at 2nd either in the majors or at AAA. I believe Gasper makes the team as the 26th man and not the starting 2nd baseman. If he were to go several days without playing I don't think that would bother the Twins as much as it would if that happens to Lee or Julien. Maybe he plays two or three games a week and gets a chance to prove he can hit in the majors and grows playing time from there. One factor I think tips things in Gasper's favor is his ability as a 3rd, albeit emergency, catching option which opens the door for Jeffers to DH or pinch hit more often when Vasquez is catching.

I tend to agree that Miranda is almost a lock, and I think Lee is the best choice for 2nd Base. I am a fan of Julien but find myself really rooting for Mickey Gasper to make the team. I would like to see how he hits and gets on base during the season. If Lee or Gasper stumbles then Julien gets called up. Here are my projections on the odds of each making the opening day roster: Miranda >95% Lee 75% Gasper 55% Julien 45% Martin 25% Keirsey Jr. <5%

I attached the rules below from MLB. A Rule 5 player dropped from the 26 man does go through waivers (claiming team still bound by Rule 5) before being offered back to the original team. However, at any time the Twins and Phillies can work out a trade without putting him through waivers. MLB.com Rule 5: "Not every club will make a selection, but those that do pick a player must pay $100,000 to the club from which said player was selected. Rule 5 Draft picks are assigned directly to the drafting club's 26-man roster and must be placed on outright waivers in order to be removed from the 26-man roster in the subsequent season. Should the player clear waivers, he must be offered back to his previous team for $50,000 and can be outrighted to the Minors only if his original club does not wish to reacquire him. A Rule 5 Draft pick can be placed on the Major League injured list, but he must be active for a minimum of 90 days to avoid being subject to the aforementioned roster restrictions in the next campaign. Clubs may trade a player selected in the Rule 5 Draft, but the same restrictions apply to the player's new organization. However, a club may also work out a trade with the Rule 5 pick's original club to acquire his full rights, thereby allowing him to be optioned to the Minors under traditional circumstances."

Any insight into Festa switching to only pitching from the stretch in 2025? Is there data available to compare his 2024 stats from the stretch only to what you show above for 2025? I have tried to research but other than statements that he was much more effective in 2024 while pitching from the stretch vs the windup I can't find any data to examine. It would be interesting to see the pitch profiler data broken out this way. Also, any thoughts in general on a starter pitching from the stretch all season? I would think it would be more taxing on the arm and result in fewer innings pitched, but I don't have any data to back up that belief.

Agreed, he would, then ,have to actually be injured. I hope they keep him and then work out a trade after opening day to keep him with the ability to send him down to AAA. Othwerwise, use him as a piggy back for whoever you think will average the fewest innings per start - either Paddack or Woods Richardson.

"Rule 5 pick Eiberson Castellano has to stay on the 40-man roster or be offered back to the Phillies organization. There is also a chance the Twins could work on a trade to keep him in the organization." I believe he has to be on the 26 man roster or be offered back to the Phillies. He has to remain on the 26 man all season or be offered back actually. I think he makes the opening day roster and Tonkin gets put through waivers.

Not a Pokemon Go player, but I do think this is a good partnership for both albeit nothing major. A quick search reveals that Pokemon Go had over 50 Million users last year and over half a billion dollars in revenue. This is down from over a billion in revenue and over 200 million users in 2016, but still a significant business. This event will most likely bring younger fans who are not active Twins fans to Target Field who might come back in the future for a Twins game. This will also likely encourage some Twins fans to try Pokemon Go during the game.