With Kremer, the Twins Have Six Starters. Now Use Them.

The Twins' rotation depth has been a challenge all season and remains so. The three most reliable pitchers - Bailey Ober, Taj Bradley, and Joe Ryan - have missed time with injuries or continue to battle arm fatigue. Other options like Simeon Woods Richardson, Mick Abel, and David Festa are either gone or out indefinitely. Dean Kremer's addition late Friday night provides backup, but his rough ERA (though solid xFIIP) might be more suited to limited use than a full starter's load.

There are a few options now with Kremer. One is to send someone down to AAA or put them on the IL to simply get some rest. That might be Zebby Matthews, who has mostly trended down since July 1st. And Connor Prielipp is certainly due to ice the arm. But the bigger problem is that the whole rotation feels like they're running on fumes.

With two interesting rookie arms in Prelipp and Kendry Rojas, I propose a somewhat inelegant solution: run a six-man rotation that is a stealth seven-man rotation. The order would go something like this: Ryan, Bradley, Ober, Zebby Matthews, Kremer, and finally a Prielipp-Rojas Piggyback. If this began after the Mariners series, each Twins starter would get about eight more starts. Each would get an extra day of rest. And if you ever wanted to skip a turn, you could give the rookie duo (or anyone else) an extra week off as needed.

The biggest win here would be for the two rookies. Assuming each threw no more than three innings in each outing, they would essentially throw an additional 24 innings each. If you wanted to weigh it further, one could spend a little extra on Rojas. Last year, he managed 70 innings in the minor leagues and his brief major league appearance. Currently sitting at 49 innings total, that means you could lean on Rojas to throw four innings if needed. Prielipp is just shy of 100 innings, having managed 82 last year. Keeping that count low—not to mention spacing it out—would be paramount to his success after his recent return from the IL. If needed, one could even give each a day to go five innings, and alternate them every go-around. 

But the combo remains best, especially for durability. A Prielipp-Rojas combo would give the Twins something they have needed since the early days of Francisco Liriano: an elite lefty starter. While taking two roster spots, six innings from the combo would be as deadly as any generic lefty is to the Twins lineup. There is a good argument that if the team makes the playoffs, the Prielipp-Rojas combination might be an even better option for a Game Three start than Ober. More so, manager Derek Shelton could get cute in a smart way: start Prielipp, go to a top elite right-hander like Andrew Morris if there’s any trouble, and hopefully force the team to make an early switch, before going right back to a lefty with Rojas.

Maybe it’s not enough. While more time off did not necessarily work well for either Ryan or Matthews (who looks like he might be hitting his innings limit) coming out of the All-Star Break, an extra day of rest might just be enough for the rest of the season. Plus, there is a good chance—more likely than not—someone else will be heading to the IL for one reason or another. Setting up the piggyback now simply structures it in for the rest of the season.

Most teams do not run six-man rotations for a reason: teams simply do not have six good enough starters. The Twins have gotten lucky this year; after losing three critical arms, two rookies have helped to fill the space, but it will require some creativity to go the distance. It also leaves the bullpen with only six arms, which could easily get taxed. 

But hard choices need to be made. This team has not exactly built itself around elite arms. That provides an opportunity to rethink elite and focus on stability. If the Twins are pushing some chips as they seem to be doing, a rotation balanced around health and longevity is perhaps what the team needs. 

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