With Kremer, the Twins Have Six Starters. Now Use Them.

[Peter Labuza]

Image courtesy of Mark J. Rebilas & Brad Penner, IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Twins' rotation depth has been a challenge all season and remains so. The three most reliable pitchers - Bailey Ober, Taj Bradley, and Joe Ryan - have missed time with injuries or continue to battle arm fatigue. Other options like Simeon Woods Richardson, Mick Abel, and David Festa are either gone or out indefinitely. Dean Kremer's addition late Friday night provides backup, but his rough ERA (though solid xFIIP) might be more suited to limited use than a full starter's load.

There are a few options now with Kremer. One is to send someone down to AAA or put them on the IL to simply get some rest. That might be Zebby Matthews, who has mostly trended down since July 1st. And Connor Prielipp is certainly due to ice the arm. But the bigger problem is that the whole rotation feels like they're running on fumes.

With two interesting rookie arms in Prelipp and Kendry Rojas, I propose a somewhat inelegant solution: run a six-man rotation that is a stealth seven-man rotation. The order would go something like this: Ryan, Bradley, Ober, Zebby Matthews, Kremer, and finally a Prielipp-Rojas Piggyback. If this began after the Mariners series, each Twins starter would get about eight more starts. Each would get an extra day of rest. And if you ever wanted to skip a turn, you could give the rookie duo (or anyone else) an extra week off as needed.

The biggest win here would be for the two rookies. Assuming each threw no more than three innings in each outing, they would essentially throw an additional 24 innings each. If you wanted to weigh it further, one could spend a little extra on Rojas. Last year, he managed 70 innings in the minor leagues and his brief major league appearance. Currently sitting at 49 innings total, that means you could lean on Rojas to throw four innings if needed. Prielipp is just shy of 100 innings, having managed 82 last year. Keeping that count low—not to mention spacing it out—would be paramount to his success after his recent return from the IL. If needed, one could even give each a day to go five innings, and alternate them every go-around. 

 

 

But the combo remains best, especially for durability. A Prielipp-Rojas combo would give the Twins something they have needed since the early days of Francisco Liriano: an elite lefty starter. While taking two roster spots, six innings from the combo would be as deadly as any generic lefty is to the Twins lineup. There is a good argument that if the team makes the playoffs, the Prielipp-Rojas combination might be an even better option for a Game Three start than Ober. More so, manager Derek Shelton could get cute in a smart way: start Prielipp, go to a top elite right-hander like Andrew Morris if there’s any trouble, and hopefully force the team to make an early switch, before going right back to a lefty with Rojas.

Maybe it’s not enough. While more time off did not necessarily work well for either Ryan or Matthews (who looks like he might be hitting his innings limit) coming out of the All-Star Break, an extra day of rest might just be enough for the rest of the season. Plus, there is a good chance—more likely than not—someone else will be heading to the IL for one reason or another. Setting up the piggyback now simply structures it in for the rest of the season.

Most teams do not run six-man rotations for a reason: teams simply do not have six good enough starters. The Twins have gotten lucky this year; after losing three critical arms, two rookies have helped to fill the space, but it will require some creativity to go the distance. It also leaves the bullpen with only six arms, which could easily get taxed. 

But hard choices need to be made. This team has not exactly built itself around elite arms. That provides an opportunity to rethink elite and focus on stability. If the Twins are pushing some chips as they seem to be doing, a rotation balanced around health and longevity is perhaps what the team needs. 

 

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[Brandon27]

i throw kremer into the bullpen and trade for another SP like hancock

[DJL44]

The inexorable trend toward making everyone a relief pitcher.

I am against taking starts away from Ryan and Bradley in a pennant race.

[LambchoP]

Or they should just go out and trade for a playoff caliber starter with another year of control. Detmers or Soriano would be great.

[tony&rodney]

Matthews looked pretty good last night after a rough first inning. Zebby is also capable of long starts. I think the Twins will roll Matthews out as a regular starter unless he falters. 

Prielipp starts today and we shall see what he brings to the mound. His stuff has been ticking up and when he throws strikes he can also go 6-7 innings. Yes, the Twins are watching Prielipp closely for any signs of struggles or fatigue but there is not any research or information that links innings pitched to injuries. Forget about the totals and focus on the individual inning pitch counts and tough situations, especially in back to back innings. If Prielipp sails through seven innings on 90-100 pitches in a start and his work between starts is clean, he is good to go.

Kendry Rojas has looked good in short stretches. He may be the guy sent down. That would be a tough call because he has great stuff. Hard to know how the Twins view the bullpen. Anderson and Adams may be sent down despite both pitching well. 

Ryan has been off recently but the defensive glitches cost him two runs last game and he is still the guy the Twins are counting on for solid starts. Bradley has been an amazing surprise all year and looks strong. Ober is the wild card only because his starts are somewhat unpredictable. 

Everyone's best guess is about as good as the next person's thoughts. I think Kremer is used as a long reliever. 

 

[rdehring]

Interesting report, Peter, thanks.

[miller761]

Options. The more the better. It is just like the versatility with the hitters. Now you can piggyback Rojas after Ober or Kremer after 4 or 5 innings and the opposing hitters do not get multiple looks against the same pitcher.

[MileHighTwinsFan]

I love the idea. Not sure about who to Piggy back though. I am hoping that with the addition of Minter, they can be more comfortable limiting innings for starters.  A back end of the bullpen with Minter, Morris, and Gomez leaves the 6th where Funderburk, Rogers, Adams, and Nance can play a role. 

[HarmonK03]

2 minutes ago, miller761 said:

Options. The more the better. It is just like the versatility with the hitters. Now you can piggyback Rojas after Ober or Kremer after 4 or 5 innings and the opposing hitters do not get multiple looks against the same pitcher.

Planned piggybacking hasn't and won't work.  If you want him for long relief for when the starter can't give you enough innings that is fine.  But trying to plan your pitching moves prior to the game never works.

[USAFChief]

Six man rotation puts too much stress on a pen. Imagine a 7 man rotation.

Stop trying to be to invent new ways to stumble. 

[90stwinskid]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

The inexorable trend toward making everyone a relief pitcher.

I am against taking starts away from Ryan and Bradley in a pennant race.

Quite agree. I would use the standard 5 man and mix in Prielipp and Rojas carefully (i.e. skipping a start or using Rojas as a piggyback) to optimize their usage while managing their workload. Might result in Bradley or Ryan losing a start, but better than a straight 6-man rotation imo. Prielipp is so good when he's right (i.e. rested) that you should be using him when feasible.

[mikelink45]

I don't agree, but I like the creative thoughts and the ability to get all of us to think and react.  For me Rojas either starts or he is available whenever a starter - any starter - faulters in the early innings.  I am not concerned about Prielipp - he had an IL stint to rest.   I am concerned for Ryan who seems to be faltering and maybe needs a day off. Put Kremer in the pen for now, but have him, like Rojas ready to come in as starters struggle.  Save the BP by having Rojas and Kremer extend the starters innings.  Another commenter talked about Morris, Gomez, Minter being able to close games, but they cannot close all the games.

Final thought - I watched Cameron shut us down for 8 innings (KC) and then we blasted the RP.  Why didn't he go 9 - is there a new rule in MLB against complete games?  Thus, I say going forward push our starters as long as they are going well and pull them quickly if they are not doing well and use Rojas and Kremer to fill out their start. 

[thelanges5]

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

Six man rotation puts too much stress on a pen. Imagine a 7 man rotation.

Stop trying to be to invent new ways to stumble. 

Was thinking the same thing. Can only have 13 pitchers on the roster. This proposal uses 8 spots, leaving Morris, Nance, Taylor, Minter, and Gomez as the BP. 

[USAFChief]

Just now, thelanges5 said:

Was thinking the same thing. Can only have 13 pitchers on the roster. This proposal uses 8 spots, leaving Morris, Nance, Taylor, Minter, and Gomez as the BP. 

A "six man rotation!" Article gets posted at TD about twice per month. 

[MileHighTwinsFan]

I love the idea. Not sure about who to Piggy back though. I am hoping that with the addition of Minter, they can be more comfortable limiting innings for starters.  A back end of the bullpen with Minter, Morris, and Gomez leaves the 6th where Funderburk, Rogers, Adams, and Nance can play a role. 

[darin617]

Does Zebby Matthews have a pitch that he struggles with? He seems like he has good stuff but he needs some fine tuning.

 

[IndianaTwin]

2 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Six man rotation puts too much stress on a pen. Imagine a 7 man rotation.

Stop trying to be to invent new ways to stumble. 

Not to mention that there are only 51 games in the remaining 58 day, so a 7-man rotation often has guys working on 7 or even 8 days rest. 

[IndianaTwin]

Alas, Matthews just got sent down. 

[tony&rodney]

3 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

Alas, Matthews just got sent down. 

Which means the Twins will be playing the injury game. Rojas goes too many innings, he goes on IL and Matthews is back up or Adams has a bad game and he goes on IL with Matthews back up. The Twins just did this recently with Marco Raya. He was on IL and then sent on "rehab" to Saints. A player can be recalled before 15 days if there is someone put on IL.

[howeda7]

9 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Which means the Twins will be playing the injury game. Rojas goes too many innings, he goes on IL and Matthews is back up or Adams has a bad game and he goes on IL with Matthews back up. The Twins just did this recently with Marco Raya. He was on IL and then sent on "rehab" to Saints. A player can be recalled before 15 days if there is someone put on IL.

This. Preleipp starts today. Wouldn't shock me if he goes down for Kremer tomorrow. Then Zebby back up next weekend 

[Cory Engelhardt]

I absolutely LOVE Prielipp's potential. He isn't ready to be 32 starts at 6 inning per.

Right now I think Bradley and Ryan are at that level. I don't know that there are others in the rotation to count on that yet. Pablo back next year certainly will help that. 

[USAFChief]

30 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I absolutely LOVE Prielipp's potential. He isn't ready to be 32 starts at 6 inning per.

Right now I think Bradley and Ryan are at that level. I don't know that there are others in the rotation to count on that yet. Pablo back next year certainly will help that. 

Let's hope Pablo is back and actually Pablo next year. Neither of those things are guaranteed. 

 

 

[Cory Engelhardt]

5 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Let's hope Pablo is back and actually Pablo next year. Neither of those things are guaranteed. 

 

 

He mitht not even be what he used to be. But I absolutely think he can be a guy you can write his name into the rotation in pen. I even extend him if possible. 

[Maybe Next Year]

“ most teams don’t run a six man rotation for a reason: they don’t have 6 good enough starters” 

Even if a team had 6 good starters, or 7, or maybe even 8  I would never want a 6, 7, or 8 man rotation. Way too much time between starts. They would need not 1 but perhaps 2 or 3 bullpen sessions between starts to remain halfway sharp. They would still be throwing a ton of pitches in order to accomplish this thus diminishing any so call advantage of extra rest between starts. In addition, the mental impact of that much time between starts would be questionable. 
Sorry but I just can’t get behind a 6 man rotation. Spoken as a former Division 1-college pitcher.

 

 

 

 

[jkcarew]

Yep. Use your best pitchers less. The argument never gets old,

[old nurse]

16 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

Alas, Matthews just got sent down. 

Alas Mathews continues to have too many games of ‘He pitched great except for “

[DJL44]

Meanwhile the Dodgers trade for Skubal, giving them 7 starters better than the Twins best.