3 Reasons There’s No Way the Twins Trade Joe Ryan This Winter

Joe Ryan's name has been tied to trade rumors for more than a year. Those rumors really picked up steam after the Minnesota Twins began their trade deadline firesale in 2025, when it became clear that the organization was willing to move established players in exchange for future assets. At one point last summer, the speculation even got out of hand. One national outlet posted on social media that Ryan had been traded to the Boston Red Sox. That report turned out to be false, and Ryan remained in Minnesota.

Now, Ryan is headed to the final year of team control in 2027. That's only going to put his name back into the national trade conversation this winter. A starting pitcher with Ryan's track record should generate plenty of interest around baseball.

However, there are three major reasons why the Twins are unlikely to trade him this offseason.

1. His Second-Half Performance is a Problem

Ryan has pitched like an All-Star during the first halves of seasons throughout his career. The problem has been keeping that level of performance going once the calendar flips to the second half. Before All-Star breaks, Ryan owns a 3.17 ERA and 1.01 WHIP, while holding opposing hitters to a .632 OPS. Those are excellent numbers for a starting pitcher. His second-half numbers tell a very different story. Ryan has a 4.99 ERA and 1.22 WHIP after the All-Star break, with opponents posting a .780 OPS against him.

There are legitimate explanations for some of that difference. Ryan has dealt with injuries and has tried to pitch through some of them, which has undoubtedly affected his performance. Still, the results matter. If the Twins were trying to trade Ryan at the height of his value, they would want to point toward his first-half dominance. Unfortunately, opposing teams are going to look at the entire body of work, including the recurring second-half struggles. That makes it harder for Minnesota to get the kind of return it would need to justify trading him.

2. His Injury Diagnosis is Still Unclear

Ryan's health creates another problem for the Twins. After struggling through multiple starts coming out of the All-Star break, initial reports indicated that Ryan was dealing with a dead-arm issue. Minnesota eventually placed him on the injured list with (officially) a glute injury.

There's an obvious disconnect here. Either Ryan's maladies were more generalized at first, or the glute issue that eventually sidelined him was separate from an arm problem that has gone unmentioned since. That doesn't mean Ryan wasn't legitimately dealing with an injury. It does, however, create uncertainty about exactly what has been affecting his performance and whether there is something more going on physically.

That type of uncertainty dings a player's trade value. Teams considering trading significant prospects for Ryan will want confidence that they are acquiring the pitcher who dominated opposing hitters during the first half of the season. If there are questions about his health, his mechanics, or why his performance has declined so dramatically in the second half, those questions will be reflected in trade offers. The Twins aren't going to get maximum value for Ryan while those questions remain unanswered.

3. The Looming Lockout Could Apply a Pinch

The current Collective Bargaining Agreement expires on December 1. If the two sides fail to reach a new agreement, another lockout could begin. That creates an interesting dynamic for the offseason. The last time baseball faced a lockout following the 2021 season, there was a flurry of activity before the deadline. Free agents signed contracts, teams completed major trades, and front offices tried to get as much business done as possible before the transaction freeze began.

There could be another rush this winter. That might seem like a reason for the Twins to move Ryan quickly. If teams know a lockout is coming, they could be more aggressive about completing trades before December 1. But that doesn't necessarily mean Ryan's value will be at its peak. In fact, all of the other factors could work against Minnesota. Teams know Ryan is entering his final year of team control. They know about his second-half struggles.

The Twins might receive plenty of calls about Ryan. That doesn't mean they'll receive an offer worth accepting. There's a major difference between having a market for a player and getting the type of return you need to trade him.

Ryan's Trade Value Is Probably at a Low Point

Put all three factors together, and Ryan's trade value is probably at a low point. He remains a talented starting pitcher with a proven track record, and there's no question that other teams will be interested. But Minnesota isn't going to trade him simply because another team is interested. The Twins need a significant return if they're going to give up one of their best starting pitchers. This winter probably isn't the time to make that move.

Instead, the more likely scenario is that Minnesota holds onto Ryan and gives him another opportunity to prove himself. If he puts together another dominant first half in 2027, his trade value could look dramatically different at next year's trade deadline.

The Twins have already shown that they're willing to make difficult trades when the return makes sense. But Ryan's current combination of inconsistent second-half performance, injury uncertainty and an approaching CBA deadline doesn't create an ideal selling opportunity. His name will almost certainly appear in trade rumors all winter. That doesn't mean the Twins will actually trade him.

Will the Twins trade Ryan this winter? Leave a comment and start the discussion. 

Which team do you dislike the most in the AL Central?

Which team do you dislike the most in the AL Central?

• Which team do you dislike the most in the AL Central? Required
  • Guardians
  • White Sox
  • Royals
  • Tigers
• Save

See All Twins Polls >