3 Reasons There’s No Way the Twins Trade Joe Ryan This Winter

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-Imagn Images

Joe Ryan's name has been tied to trade rumors for more than a year. Those rumors really picked up steam after the Minnesota Twins began their trade deadline firesale in 2025, when it became clear that the organization was willing to move established players in exchange for future assets. At one point last summer, the speculation even got out of hand. One national outlet posted on social media that Ryan had been traded to the Boston Red Sox. That report turned out to be false, and Ryan remained in Minnesota.

Now, Ryan is headed to the final year of team control in 2027. That's only going to put his name back into the national trade conversation this winter. A starting pitcher with Ryan's track record should generate plenty of interest around baseball.

However, there are three major reasons why the Twins are unlikely to trade him this offseason.

1. His Second-Half Performance is a Problem

Ryan has pitched like an All-Star during the first halves of seasons throughout his career. The problem has been keeping that level of performance going once the calendar flips to the second half. Before All-Star breaks, Ryan owns a 3.17 ERA and 1.01 WHIP, while holding opposing hitters to a .632 OPS. Those are excellent numbers for a starting pitcher. His second-half numbers tell a very different story. Ryan has a 4.99 ERA and 1.22 WHIP after the All-Star break, with opponents posting a .780 OPS against him.

There are legitimate explanations for some of that difference. Ryan has dealt with injuries and has tried to pitch through some of them, which has undoubtedly affected his performance. Still, the results matter. If the Twins were trying to trade Ryan at the height of his value, they would want to point toward his first-half dominance. Unfortunately, opposing teams are going to look at the entire body of work, including the recurring second-half struggles. That makes it harder for Minnesota to get the kind of return it would need to justify trading him.

2. His Injury Diagnosis is Still Unclear

Ryan's health creates another problem for the Twins. After struggling through multiple starts coming out of the All-Star break, initial reports indicated that Ryan was dealing with a dead-arm issue. Minnesota eventually placed him on the injured list with (officially) a glute injury.

There's an obvious disconnect here. Either Ryan's maladies were more generalized at first, or the glute issue that eventually sidelined him was separate from an arm problem that has gone unmentioned since. That doesn't mean Ryan wasn't legitimately dealing with an injury. It does, however, create uncertainty about exactly what has been affecting his performance and whether there is something more going on physically.

That type of uncertainty dings a player's trade value. Teams considering trading significant prospects for Ryan will want confidence that they are acquiring the pitcher who dominated opposing hitters during the first half of the season. If there are questions about his health, his mechanics, or why his performance has declined so dramatically in the second half, those questions will be reflected in trade offers. The Twins aren't going to get maximum value for Ryan while those questions remain unanswered.

3. The Looming Lockout Could Apply a Pinch

The current Collective Bargaining Agreement expires on December 1. If the two sides fail to reach a new agreement, another lockout could begin. That creates an interesting dynamic for the offseason. The last time baseball faced a lockout following the 2021 season, there was a flurry of activity before the deadline. Free agents signed contracts, teams completed major trades, and front offices tried to get as much business done as possible before the transaction freeze began.

There could be another rush this winter. That might seem like a reason for the Twins to move Ryan quickly. If teams know a lockout is coming, they could be more aggressive about completing trades before December 1. But that doesn't necessarily mean Ryan's value will be at its peak. In fact, all of the other factors could work against Minnesota. Teams know Ryan is entering his final year of team control. They know about his second-half struggles.

The Twins might receive plenty of calls about Ryan. That doesn't mean they'll receive an offer worth accepting. There's a major difference between having a market for a player and getting the type of return you need to trade him.

Ryan's Trade Value Is Probably at a Low Point

Put all three factors together, and Ryan's trade value is probably at a low point. He remains a talented starting pitcher with a proven track record, and there's no question that other teams will be interested. But Minnesota isn't going to trade him simply because another team is interested. The Twins need a significant return if they're going to give up one of their best starting pitchers. This winter probably isn't the time to make that move.

Instead, the more likely scenario is that Minnesota holds onto Ryan and gives him another opportunity to prove himself. If he puts together another dominant first half in 2027, his trade value could look dramatically different at next year's trade deadline.

The Twins have already shown that they're willing to make difficult trades when the return makes sense. But Ryan's current combination of inconsistent second-half performance, injury uncertainty and an approaching CBA deadline doesn't create an ideal selling opportunity. His name will almost certainly appear in trade rumors all winter. That doesn't mean the Twins will actually trade him.

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Will the Twins trade Ryan this winter? Leave a comment and start the discussion. 

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[D.C Twins]

Is his track record as concerning as it sounds compared to other MLB pitchers over a 5 year stretch?  He averaged just under 27 starts a season and around 150 innings a season with no major surgery.... That is actually pretty reliable overall!

Does he even get the chance to have a 'dominant' start to 2027 with the lock out?

How would a dominant first half of 2027 change the narrative for which you have expressed concern?

Would they be 'giving up their best starting pitcher' or perhaps more accurately be getting SOMETHING before he is gone?

A smart small market team would have traded Ryan no later than 1.5 years before losing him (ie when that package from the Red Sox was on the table). The Twins are not a smart small market team.

Given the crap position they have put themselves in....I would trade him before the Lockout. Teams will probably correctly interpret that they will get optimal Ryan for the 50-75% of the season likely to be played. Plus, it hedges against an entire season being lost. 

 

 

[Jeff K]

I agree with your reasoning.  With that in mind, the Twins could have a very interesting starting rotation next year and with good depth.  Teams can go far with excellent starting pitching and you don't have to squint too hard to see the Twins with good to excellent starters.  While the bullpen improved, the Twins will need greater depth and improved options for the 8th and 9th innings to go far...and of course, the everyday lineup needs addressing.  But there are reasons to be hopeful.  Catcher and first base especially need to be upgraded for 2027.  I sure hope the Twins make a qualifying offer to Jeffers...although he is unlikely to take it.  

[Mike Sixel]

Sigh. Such a huge opportunity lost. But hey, they are terrible again this year, so, ummm, it was worth it? 

His value is almost gone at this point. I can't see getting more than one lower end top 100 guy at this point. Even that....

[thelanges5]

46 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Sigh. Such a huge opportunity lost. But hey, they are terrible again this year, so, ummm, it was worth it? 

His value is almost gone at this point. I can't see getting more than one lower end top 100 guy at this point. Even that....

Was hoping he could come back and reestablish some value here in September. So far he hasn’t looked that good.

[IndianaTwin]

You missed what I think is the primary reason they don't trade him....

If you think you are a contender, you don't trade your Opening Day starter!

[wesnewy]

and to think the sox offered us Tolle and Arias at the deadline last year and we turned it down 

[EGFTShaw]

I wouldn't trade him.

David Ortiz

Have a Long Term Plan

[Linus]

If he doesn’t get traded the biggest reason will be, with his new arbitration number, there won’t be nearly the surplus value in his contract situation there was previously. If he is traded, it won’t be for the haul some are expecting  

[TheLeviathan]

Best case scenario: the CBA doesn't drag on, the FA market is the usual garbage, and several of the big payroll teams come knocking that Joe would like to sign with.  Dodgers, Padres, Angels, whomever it is on the West Coast he wants.  

We've long since lost an elite return for him, but it might be a decent one.

[Mike Sixel]

47 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

Best case scenario: the CBA doesn't drag on, the FA market is the usual garbage, and several of the big payroll teams come knocking that Joe would like to sign with.  Dodgers, Padres, Angels, whomever it is on the West Coast he wants.  

We've long since lost an elite return for him, but it might be a decent one.

It's an awful FA class, that could save the Twins. 

[The Great Hambino]

3 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

You missed what I think is the primary reason they don't trade him....

If you think you are a contender, you don't trade your Opening Day starter!

Oh man, the Brewers are gonna be so embarrassed when they realize they're not really contenders because they traded Freddy Peralta in January 

[soyouresayingtheresachance]

Depending on how long the lockout lasts, we might eek out a "full" 2027 season of peak Ryan pitching. 😅 

[Andy MacPhail]

5 hours ago, D.C Twins said:

Is his track record as concerning as it sounds compared to other MLB pitchers over a 5 year stretch?  He averaged just under 27 starts a season and around 150 innings a season with no major surgery.... That is actually pretty reliable overall!

Does he even get the chance to have a 'dominant' start to 2027 with the lock out?

How would a dominant first half of 2027 change the narrative for which you have expressed concern?

Would they be 'giving up their best starting pitcher' or perhaps more accurately be getting SOMETHING before he is gone?

A smart small market team would have traded Ryan no later than 1.5 years before losing him (ie when that package from the Red Sox was on the table). The Twins are not a smart small market team.

Given the crap position they have put themselves in....I would trade him before the Lockout. Teams will probably correctly interpret that they will get optimal Ryan for the 50-75% of the season likely to be played. Plus, it hedges against an entire season being lost. 

Twins should have traded Ryan & Jeffers last offseason for young MLB ready players that'd help them this season & see if they could compete after that. Instead of keeping them. IMO, the team would have done much better.

[MN Brian]

So if we only have a half season due to a lockout, and Joe Ryan is only a half season pitcher, doesn't that indicate it might be a perfect match?

[MeleMouth]

5 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

You missed what I think is the primary reason they don't trade him....

If you think you are a contender, you don't trade your Opening Day starter!

Is this a cut and paste from November, 2025?