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MN Brian

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Everything posted by MN Brian

  1. MN Brian
    I think it is worse then what is stated here. Isn't that the ticket sales number not actual attendance? I expect that this year the difference between the two was very significant. For instance, I had the $229 Twins pass so I presume I counted as 80 of the 1.7million ticket sales. But I had no expectation of attending 80 games, ended up around 20-25 (still a great value). I believe that there were around 10k season tickets (someone speak up if they know the actual number). On many of the nights I was there, it was clearly much less than 50% of season tickets were being used. They even added a program to bribe season ticket holders into ensuring their tickets were used by crediting them a % of the ticket to next years season ticket. If season ticket holders either can't sell or can't be bothered to sell/give their unused tickets it clearly indicates a high level of apathy. That won't be turned around fast, as you noted it takes sustained success. Everything points towards 2027 being another step down from 2026 for attendance. With the right actions, maybe the Twins can turn it around for 2028 but I feel that much of the story for 2027 attendance has already been written.
  2. MN Brian
    Doesn't it seem like #10 should be "Will Jeremy Zoll keep his job?"? Personally I feel that Tom will want to choose his team, not inherit it from his brother. Business leaders typically give themselves 6-12 months to learn the ropes, then choose their team.
  3. MN Brian
    An interesting first observation is that the league (minus the Twins) had 5.12 average platoon advantage hitters in the starting line-up, whereas the Twins had 5.64. Confirming the feeling that the Twins are above the norm in their approach.
  4. MN Brian
    @Riverbrian If you liked the last data dump, I think you'll love this one =) I haven't done a sanity check yet, but all the previous ones looked good so I'm reasonably confident Claude knows what it is doing. The attached CSV has all games for all teams for 10 years (2016 to 2025 inclusive). It include 2 entries for each game to capture the perspective from both teams - 45k+ lines. It includes the season ERA for the opposing starter as a basic means for identifying the quality of the starter. Depending on your spreadsheet skills, this should allow you to slice and dice the data pretty extensively. Note: I did see that if the team name has changed (such as the Athletics), their data is under more than 1 team name. Something to watch out for. all_teams_vs_pitcher_hand_games.csv
  5. MN Brian
    The python script can be run against any team, one at a time. I had Claude add in the L/R/S count for the batters in the starting line-up -- I haven't done a sanity check on that data but it seems reasonable. The data can be run for any time period other than this year, this example data set is 2016-2025 inclusive, so 10 years total. twins_vs_pitcher_hand_games (version 2).csv
  6. MN Brian
    @Riverbrian - I'm a newbie when it comes to sourcing baseball stats, so fully possible that I have made a newbie mistake here =) I asked Claude to write a python script to scrape the baseball stats to determine the data that you are looking at: the Twins (or another club's) game record and runs scored against the handedness of the opposing starting pitcher. The data seems good - I cross checked a half dozen data points from the spreadsheet against Baseball Reference game box scores and the pitcher, handedness, win/loss, & run scored were all accurate. Unfortunately it won't include this years results until the year has ended. The game by game log is in the CSV file. Does this help? Personally I understand the hypothesis but am unsure of how you see this data supporting it. Would it be by comparing 2 different teams on opposite sides of the spectrum? twins_vs_pitcher_hand_games.csv
  7. MN Brian
    So if we only have a half season due to a lockout, and Joe Ryan is only a half season pitcher, doesn't that indicate it might be a perfect match?
  8. MN Brian
    Based on my experience in business we were always looking to develop the team aspects =) Humans, in business or sport, are not automatons. They are humans and if you fail to treat them, or their coworkers, as such then you leave an awful lot of production opportunity on the table. That's not to say don't focus on production, but just not exclusively. Always include the human perspective in the business (or sport) decisions.
  9. MN Brian
    Maybe it's not the standard, but it's not that unusual (Jose Conseco? Mark McGwire?). Certainly not the norm however. But the main point being that nothing of this nature gets implemented without mistakes. That's not to say that most testing is not accurate or that the testing shouldn't be done. But it is to say that it would be crushing as an individual if you devoted your life to a sport only to have your reputation dirtied by a bad test, or by an accurate test that did not capture intent.
  10. MN Brian
    Found this on the Phillies Nation site and found it interesting in terms of the background on Kepler’s PED suspension. He acknowledged being responsible but not guilty, which is an interesting positioning. If true, it's a sad by-product of the need to crack down on PED use. Of course, no way to know if there was an intent to take PEDs or not. https://philliesnation.com/2026/09/philadelphia-phillies-arizona-diamondbacks-max-kepler-ped-suspension-september-3-2026-mlb-update/
  11. MN Brian
    Dang! Look at Dobby with the flashy ERA!
  12. MN Brian
    No, but I heard it runs great!
  13. MN Brian
    No current Twins player is more recognized by the general public. That public recognition is well deserved and it means that he has more value to the Twins than just his playing performance. He has marketing value that means his overall value to the Twins (performance + marketing) is greater than we would ever get in return in a trade. So my answer is that while a great trade for younger prospects might make sense for the long term playing performance of the baseball team, it won't make business sense unless Buxton chooses to torch the marketing value by requesting a trade. At least I hope so!
  14. MN Brian
    Am I the only one bothered by the fact that the Lansing Lugnuts logo is a bolt, not a lugnut?
  15. MN Brian
    I don't recall ever seeing switch hitters bat same sided against pitchers with reverse splits, but it potentially makes sense if the data shows there is a slight advantage to be had. I have seen where switch hitters have temporarily abandoned one side if it has been going poorly for them. Does it happen in MLB that they react to reverse splits? If I was a switch hitter I think it would be challenging as you are not only trying to keep your L/R swings healthy but now potentially have L/R swings vs. L/R pitchers or 4 different variations to keep healthy.
  16. MN Brian
    An easy way to choose a section is to look at the available tickets on the Twins ticket page. Tickets tend to sell from down to up in each different dollar category. Pretty easy to see if all of section 102 above the first 10 rows have not been sold, for example. And, if the Twins cared, it would be easy for their ushers to have this info as well. Yet there are typically people scattered all over the unsold sections.
  17. MN Brian
    I have the stadium access tickets (no seats) and have been to a dozen games. I have explored all around the stadium and am almost always sitting. I usually check out 2-3 different spots during a game. I have never been asked to show my ticket. As noted by others, some sections have no ushers (mostly upper decks). The lower sections generally do, but they typically allow you to walk right past. Or you can wait for them to go to the bottom of a stairs in between innings and follow them down. I believe the dugout sections and the club seats always verify tickets so I haven't gone to those sections. Lower deck left field, down the first base line in 104/103/102, and directly behind home plate have all worked well. I do make sure to sit in areas that are not populated (easy to do this year!) and generally I wait until after the first inning. All that said I have seen people challenged for tickets. Usually when a large young group of fans move into a premium section. But really I think it is likely usher specific. Most likely want nothing to do with challenging fans about tickets. Maybe some do =)
  18. MN Brian
    Gotta say I'd focus on Hawaii over this Twins team!
  19. MN Brian
    I have my doubts . . .
  20. MN Brian
    Wow. That is a really weak line-up. Not a single batter that would make the pitcher nervous. Lewis at 1B today? Should be good to go since he got his feet wet there yesterday! I don't disagree with moving him to the right side, but it does feel like we are playing with fire with his personality. A few errors and there goes any chance of being in a good frame of mind.
  21. MN Brian
    Let's hope he is claimed so that the front office isn't tempted to bring him back up later this season!
  22. MN Brian
    Others have addressed how much of an overpay this would be, and I agree. I like Jeffers, but the top paid catcher? But I think the interesting aspect of this is that the QO salary would apply to the first year of the new CBA, right? And if the owners are successful then there will likely be a cap & floor system in place that will require a significant amount of spending by the Twins. Seems likely there would need to be some transition in year 1, but think about how you can spend that money. There won't be more above average players available, same as before. But the balance of money to be spent will be towards the smaller payroll teams. Free agents that we might be interested in will likely be tough to get. Internal candidates for that spend suddenly become very interesting.
  23. MN Brian
    I was thinking there was a good opportunity for a Guinness record for most people in a Royce Lewis flash mob!
  24. MN Brian
    The question on the jersey giveaway has been answered! Now the question is what do they do with 10k Lewis jersey's?
  25. MN Brian
    You need both, I think. Opinion polls over time are quite interesting in judging shifts of opinion, but others (like this) should be point in time based. A related comment, it would be very interesting to see the opinion polls over time displayed that way. For example, what is the daily opinion of Shelton from the start of the season to now on a day-to-day basis? If it's possible to view that now, I'm now sure how.
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