Time for Twins to Address the Elephant in the Room

[OvertheHill]

49 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Don't bring logic to this discussion.  I was looking at the same information.  He has essentially had two really bad outings all year, but otherwise has been pretty solid.  

Lots of vitriol here. I think that Pagan could roll of 25 IP of perfect pitching and most of the fans would still be calling for his head.  Lots of Ron Davis vibes here...

Anybody know what kind of clubhouse guy he is?  Anybody stop to think that innings may not be the only reason he is on the roster?

Exactly. For good reason.

Might be a super nice clubhouse guy but I don't know how that's going to really help things. And for me it's not just that he's had a couple of ill-timed bad outings this year. We were watching last year, and as it's been pointed out, he hasn't really been great since 2019. He must have a good agent....

[KirbyDome89]

37 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Don't bring logic to this discussion.  I was looking at the same information.  He has essentially had two really bad outings all year, but otherwise has been pretty solid.  

Lots of vitriol here. I think that Pagan could roll of 25 IP of perfect pitching and most of the fans would still be calling for his head.  Lots of Ron Davis vibes here...

Anybody know what kind of clubhouse guy he is?  Anybody stop to think that innings may not be the only reason he is on the roster?

Logic would dictate that a broader SS tells a better story, i.e. we don't need to pretend his last three seasons haven't been disasters. 

You said nearly the same thing after his last meltdown, but I think the number was 12 IP at that time. I don't see why we're sliding the goalposts all the way to clubhouse glue guy to justify hanging on here.

[bighat]

21 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Every MLB team has 2 or 3 relievers for low leverage outings. There isn’t one team that has 8 high leverage shut down relievers. 

If we're going to have a "low-leverage" guy, let's make it Balazovic, then. Or Sands. Why not? Let young guys get experience, see what they've got. Put them in low-risk scenarios and let them develop. 

Don't pay a veteran for that role. 

That's just my opinion, I didn't mean to sound too contentious when I quoted you, I think we may just disagree on this issue! 

[KirbyDome89]

33 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Twins pen is league median....not great, but not a disaster. Some people seem to expect the FO to build the best team at every position, which seems unrealistic to me. YMMV, of course. Overall they have the best pitching staff in the game, which, sure, you can still complain if you want. That's your right, of course.

And if that holds, ok, that's probably the best case scenario, but I don't think that's what the angst is really about right? 

The Twins are 23rd in BP innings right now. The SP is ripe for regression, and with that comes more innings for the pen. Maybe (hopefully) they've got things a bit more sorted out when that starts to hit, but right now there's way too much flux in spots 4-8 (or 5-8 if we want to add Thielbar) for me to believe the pen, as currently constructed, can tread water at league average for another 100+ games, hence the concern. Maybe they get lucky and this is 2019 all over again where the top end stays remarkably healthy and turns in multiple elite performances, but that's a tough bet. 

[stringer bell]

I'm not a huge fan of Emilio Pagan. I have thought his spot on the active and 40-man rosters should have been taken by someone with more upside all year. His recent performance (until yesterday) lowered my full-throated complaints. I'm not going to rip the front office if they do nothing, but I just have to believe there are better alternatives.

Yesterday was just too much his history. Come into a manageable situation, lose command of the strike zone and yield a big extra base hit. He doesn't have good enough command to get hitters to go after his out pitches and he doesn't have enough stuff to get away with middle-middle fastballs or cutters.

Nobody is perfect (except somehow Yennier Cano) but the blowups are too frequent with Pagan and he's at a point where it is doubtful he will ever get better. There has to be a better answer.

[stringer bell]

There are lots of comments about no one having a bullpen full of shutdown relievers. Probably true, but it seems many teams have guys who come in and mow hitters down. IMHO, the clubs that employ such guys believe their pitchers have the ability to be shutdown relievers. Having 3-4 who should never face high leverage is going to cost games. A lot of us have soured on Moran, for example, but I think he might manage to become quite serviceable. I thought Alcala also had a chance to fill that second tier and maybe when (and if) his arm is 100% that might be true. Stewart does look like a find, although the non-intentional walks are a concern. 

[shabbos1]

He's still being rolled out there because the FO won't admit that the trade that brought him here was, as they might say, suboptimal.

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, shabbos1 said:

He's still being rolled out there because the FO won't admit that the trade that brought him here was, as they might say, suboptimal.

I don't believe it is hubris at all. You have inside information on this? Because they've let other guys go....

[LastOnePicked]

1 hour ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Anybody know what kind of clubhouse guy he is?  Anybody stop to think that innings may not be the only reason he is on the roster?

Then make him a coach. I mean, come on.

[Brandon]

I’m going to be pro Oagan in today.  Overall he has actuality been good.  He has 2 bad appearances.  He gave up 6 runs in 1 inning in a game earlier in the season and he gave up several (4?  I didn’t see the box score) against the Dodgers one of the best teams.  That leaves 1 run in 14 other appearances.  I would limit his exposure to close games especially against good teams but he his better than half our bullpen at the moment.  Sure a new punching bag would be nice after this but let’s keep this one around for now just keep him out of key game moments.  

[jmlease1]

27 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I don't believe it is hubris at all. You have inside information on this? Because they've let other guys go....

I'll admit, it has kind of felt like the FO was trying to convince itself that they hadn't made a mistake with Pagan, but I don't have any inside information.

And as a low-leverage middle reliever he's been basically acceptable this season, and available. (say what you will about Pagan, and I can say plenty, there's never a question about whether or not he can take the ball) Despite the "Manfred Man" the Twins have been in 3 games this month that have gone 11+ innings; without those, I dunno if Pagan sees enough high leverage spots to matter.

I don't particularly want Pagan on this roster, and going into this season I was pretty adamant that we could do better and for exactly the amount we're paying this guy. If there were trades available to the Twins I would have taken basically any of them and signed someone else. but they didn't do that, and I think that was a mistake by this front office.

But I don't know how much we actually gain by cutting Pagan right now. We're on the hook for his salary regardless. No one is going to give us anything in trade, so that's not an option. And replacements are only coming from internal options in AAA or maybe AA right now. Maybe Laweryson would be better? or Balazovic? Maybe?

But the biggest benefit is probably to the fan psyche, not really on the field.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

1 hour ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Logic would dictate that a broader SS tells a better story, i.e. we don't need to pretend his last three seasons haven't been disasters. 

You said nearly the same thing after his last meltdown, but I think the number was 12 IP at that time. I don't see why we're sliding the goalposts all the way to clubhouse glue guy to justify hanging on here.

Not sliding the goalposts, but not 100% sure he warrants the vitriol.  Jax, Moran, Alcala have all been equal or worse to Pagan this season, but the mobs do not attack them like they do Pagan.

I am all for improving the team.  I am not saying that Pagan is the second coming of Joe Nathan.  However, I do believe that the amount of hate and vitriol being pushed at him is much more than is warranted right now.

[Mike Sixel]

25 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

I'll admit, it has kind of felt like the FO was trying to convince itself that they hadn't made a mistake with Pagan, but I don't have any inside information.

And as a low-leverage middle reliever he's been basically acceptable this season, and available. (say what you will about Pagan, and I can say plenty, there's never a question about whether or not he can take the ball) Despite the "Manfred Man" the Twins have been in 3 games this month that have gone 11+ innings; without those, I dunno if Pagan sees enough high leverage spots to matter.

I don't particularly want Pagan on this roster, and going into this season I was pretty adamant that we could do better and for exactly the amount we're paying this guy. If there were trades available to the Twins I would have taken basically any of them and signed someone else. but they didn't do that, and I think that was a mistake by this front office.

But I don't know how much we actually gain by cutting Pagan right now. We're on the hook for his salary regardless. No one is going to give us anything in trade, so that's not an option. And replacements are only coming from internal options in AAA or maybe AA right now. Maybe Laweryson would be better? or Balazovic? Maybe?

But the biggest benefit is probably to the fan psyche, not really on the field.

Certainly would be better for the fans mentally, unless the new guy is worse......then we'll get to read how idiotic the FO is, despite having the best pitching in MLB....

[Vanimal46]

33 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Not sliding the goalposts, but not 100% sure he warrants the vitriol.  Jax, Moran, Alcala have all been equal or worse to Pagan this season, but the mobs do not attack them like they do Pagan.

I am all for improving the team.  I am not saying that Pagan is the second coming of Joe Nathan.  However, I do believe that the amount of hate and vitriol being pushed at him is much more than is warranted right now.

Yep. I’m hardly a fan of Pagan but it’s crazy how much hate Pagan receives on here, Twitter, and Reddit when he has a bad outing. 

But here we are, hook line and sinker. Pagan drives emotions and clicks so Theo can get paid. 

[Halsey Hall]

   The bullpen is weak, and Pagan the worst of the bunch.   With a team that scores 2 or less runs often the pen has to be almost perfect.  Not a chance with Pagan in there.

[DocBauer]

I don't dislike Pagan because he allows runs to score. I mean, every RP allows rubs to score. Our own, amazing Duran has allowed a couple HR this season. Even the very best allow runs and have bad days.

Just recently, before being places on the IL, I was really liking what I was seeing from Alcala DESPITE giving up a couple HR in his last few appearances. Because I saw some nasty pitches and Ks and good outs surrounding those HR. Also, it seemed all his runs were scored on his 2nd IP, not his first. So I was feeling encouraged by what I was seeing from Alcala despite the final results.

And I absolutely will admit that Pagan has been about ML solid, average since his early April blow-up. My problem is...and yes, this dates back to last year as well...he can ONLY seem to perform in low leverage spots. And even with an 8 man pen, each and every guy in that pen is going to be placed in to a higher leverage position once in a while. It's OK if they aren't great in them. But they shouldn't just look fragile and fall completely apart. And when Pagan loses it, he loses it BIG TIME with BB and grooving pitches for big innings.

I didn't want him back. I thought they could have done better with just a little more investment. I'll admit he's been OK in his low/lower leverage spots this season. But I've seen enough last year and this year to know I don't want him on my favorite team unless he can only be used in low leverage situations. And that just doesn't exist. Again, everyone gets tougher spots at certain points and has to try and get through it...no fall to pieces.

The problem right now, unfortunately, is Winder has looked bad. Henriquez is still ramping up. Do we want Headrick  and Balazovic out of the AAA rotation right now? Sands appears to only be a long man at this point, though I hope he might grow. I'm just not sure who is available to bring up that's better. But I'd sure rather give a couple younger arms with a future a look see rather than maintain the Pagan merry-go-round. I'm just not sure there is room to remove him at this time.

[beterday]

I was ready to see Pagan rather than Jax who has been losing games lately.  I think he is also not a high leverage guy anymore, if he ever was.  Hope I am wrong about him, but I don't think anybody is wrong about Pagan.  It is time to let him go and bring up Balazovic.

 

[wabene]

This thread has really rounded into a good discussion. 

[I wish the twins were good]

11 hours ago, AJray15 said:

It’s absolutely time to just cut him loose (it was in the off-season), but we all know they won’t. For whatever reason they have this attachment to the guy. I just don’t get it anymore.

That spin rate tho

[KirbyDome89]

2 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Not sliding the goalposts, but not 100% sure he warrants the vitriol.  Jax, Moran, Alcala have all been equal or worse to Pagan this season, but the mobs do not attack them like they do Pagan.

I am all for improving the team.  I am not saying that Pagan is the second coming of Joe Nathan.  However, I do believe that the amount of hate and vitriol being pushed at him is much more than is warranted right now.

No doubt that trio has been bad, but they don't have a Pagan-esque track record of being awful. If the Twins are handing the ball to any one of those guys 4 years into being a negative value player the mobs will probably be just as active.

Pagan as the victim of a rabid fan base, particularly this team's, is a weird spin for me.

[USAFChief]

10 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Pagan has only given up an earned run in 4 of 16 appearances this year. That's not bad. We have to separate last year from this year a little bit. He hasn't been blowing lead after lead this year. He's only blown 1. But that's because he hasn't been given leads to hold. 

This is not a "save Pagan!" post, but I want to be realistic about who he's been this year, and who he's most likely to be moving forward. Pagan is perfectly fine as a low-leverage, only used when trailing, or crushing, in games reliever (and you need those guys for a 162 game season). He's absolutely not someone the team should ever trust in a high-leverage situation, and should only be used there in emergencies. I can understand why they went with him only needing to get 1 out last night, and not wanting to use Lopez or Duran for 1 out, then a down and up for a second inning after they'd both thrown rather significant amounts recently. 

Yesterday was a perfect storm of an overused pen mixed with the offense going completely dead with the bases loaded again mixed with Sonny being incredibly wild and inefficient. That lead to them needing to use DeLeon (who I thought actually looked nasty and he may be an interesting guy to give a shot to as a lightning in a bottle reliever for 2023) more than they'd like to have, and Pagan at all.

All this being said, Pagan absolutely can't be on a playoff roster. There's some blowouts in the playoffs, and you really don't want to use your studs in those games, but you can't waste a roster spot on a guy you'd absolutely never want to put into a close playoff game. I'm not going to freak out if they don't DFA Pagan today (and I've been calling for them to DFA him since last season), but as they approach the ASB, and trade deadline, they absolutely need to fill his spot with someone better.

I'm ok with Pagan holding down his multi-inning, mop up role for another month or 2 as long as he continues to be successful in those situations. They need to be using that time to find 6-8 other guys they'd trust in a playoff game, though. They need to be working to improve upon him, and be looking for his replacement. The 2nd half of the season needs to be played without Pagan, or anyone, on the roster (outside of injury needs) that they wouldn't play in a 1 run playoff game. The next 2 months is all about finding your best 26 guys, maintaining reasonable depth behind them, and making sure those 26 guys are playoff worthy. Pagan doesn't have to go today, but he has to go before August.

I don't know how anyone can still claim there are "low leverage " spots in a modern bullpen.

They don't exist. Every single guy out there is going to be asked to pitch in close games. 

Every single guy. 

We deserve all the  gut wrenching losses we accumulate for planning otherwise.

[JD-TWINS]

12 hours ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

The two critical walks by Pagan upset me more than the grand slam. Those two walks were inexcusable. I was a terrible high school pitcher on a terrible high school team, but even I could/would throw strikes in that situation. Having said that, even a high school hitter would know that Pagan was going to throw a fastball down the middle after two straight walks which tied the game. It was the walks that did him in. 

Exactly!! That’s his major problem, he’s clueless or has nearly zero command. Cannot tube a fastball after 2 straight walks. Throw a middle/middle fastball to Heyward, 2 batters prior so you don’t walk him. Came into game with TWO OUTS.

He gets behind in pressure situations and then caves & instead of throwing a strike to a spot he goes middle/middle and it gets rocked.

Happens repeatedly.

Some are comparing him to Jax. Jax has had some terrible breaks - he’s walked some guys in bad spots - but he’ll give up a run or not get a hold when needed but he doesn’t give up 2,3,or 4 runs & takes us out of a game.

[JD-TWINS]

9 hours ago, Beast said:

It’s not just Pagan, although the should’ve been gone long ago.

The entire pen stinks.  Duran is all we have.  Even Lopez, who had been good, can’t be trusted.  I’d bet anything he unravels at some point this year, like he did last year.

The FO needs to figure out how to get a serviceable bullpen cobbled together.  None of the good things with the lineup and rotation matter if our pen gives up 3+ runs every night.

Headrick - Balazovic - Deleon - (Maeda 3 weeks away) - Duran - Lopez - Thielbar (2 weeks away) - Stewart - Jax

[chpettit19]

21 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

I don't know how anyone can still claim there are "low leverage " spots in a modern bullpen.

They don't exist. Every single guy out there is going to be asked to pitch in close games. 

Every single guy. 

We deserve all the  gut wrenching losses we accumulate for planning otherwise.

Do you feel there are a large number of teams in major league baseball that have no bullpen arms that are used almost entirely in low leverage spots? How many do you think there are? Almost every team carries 13 arms. That's 5 starters, and 8 pen arms. How many of those teams do you think have 8 guys they are happy to use in high leverage spots regularly?

There's a difference between having to throw a high leverage inning here and there, and being a high leverage reliever. I'd venture to say that every single bullpen in major league baseball has at least 1 guy who they only want to throw in low leverage spots. Will the situation call for them to be used in high leverage spots here and there? For sure. Emilio Pagan has pitched in 2 truly high leverage spots this year. May 4th against Chicago when he got the win in the 11th, and last night. 2 out of 16 appearances through 44 team games being high leverage sure feels like it's a pretty low leverage role. He's on pace for a whopping 8 high leverage appearances this year. Of course they'll all be forced into a tight game here or there, and I said I don't want him on the team. But the idea that you can't hide a guy or 2 pretty darn well from high leverage spots seems like just arguing "well technically they'll all throw at least 1 high leverage inning."

Yes, every team will lose a handful of games because they get into a stretch of games where their top guys are used too much and they have to lean on their mid and low leverage guys too much. But nobody is cycling through 8 high leverage arms and pretending they don't have guys they only use in low leverage spots until they're forced not to.

[stringer bell]

40 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Do you feel there are a large number of teams in major league baseball that have no bullpen arms that are used almost entirely in low leverage spots? How many do you think there are? Almost every team carries 13 arms. That's 5 starters, and 8 pen arms. How many of those teams do you think have 8 guys they are happy to use in high leverage spots regularly?

There's a difference between having to throw a high leverage inning here and there, and being a high leverage reliever. I'd venture to say that every single bullpen in major league baseball has at least 1 guy who they only want to throw in low leverage spots. Will the situation call for them to be used in high leverage spots here and there? For sure. Emilio Pagan has pitched in 2 truly high leverage spots this year. May 4th against Chicago when he got the win in the 11th, and last night. 2 out of 16 appearances through 44 team games being high leverage sure feels like it's a pretty low leverage role. He's on pace for a whopping 8 high leverage appearances this year. Of course they'll all be forced into a tight game here or there, and I said I don't want him on the team. But the idea that you can't hide a guy or 2 pretty darn well from high leverage spots seems like just arguing "well technically they'll all throw at least 1 high leverage inning."

Yes, every team will lose a handful of games because they get into a stretch of games where their top guys are used too much and they have to lean on their mid and low leverage guys too much. But nobody is cycling through 8 high leverage arms and pretending they don't have guys they only use in low leverage spots until they're forced not to.

It is a virtual certainty that there will be more high leverage going forward. The rotation will get stretched and so will the bullpen and there will be more situations that can't be handled by the 2-4 preferred relievers.

The Twins have been carrying a long reliever for most of the year who hasn't been considered for high leverage work. I don't know if other teams have stuck to having a long man and I expect that Rocco would use the long man in the event extra innings extended a game past maybe the 11th or 12th in some situation or if the (otherwise) last man was injured.

Thielbar's injury and Jax' relative ineffectiveness at least temporarily moved Pagan into a higher leverage role, for which he has struggled.

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, stringer bell said:

It is a virtual certainty that there will be more high leverage going forward. The rotation will get stretched and so will the bullpen and there will be more situations that can't be handled by the 2-4 preferred relievers.

The Twins have been carrying a long reliever for most of the year who hasn't been considered for high leverage work. I don't know if other teams have stuck to having a long man and I expect that Rocco would use the long man in the event extra innings extended a game past maybe the 11th or 12th in some situation or if the (otherwise) last man was injured.

Thielbar's injury and Jax' relative ineffectiveness at least temporarily moved Pagan into a higher leverage role, for which he has struggled.

Ok? If there's such thing as a "higher leverage role," then, by definition, there has to be such a thing as a "lower leverage role." I don't know if you're disagreeing with me or what. You're basically just saying what I did in the post chief quoted.

You need Pagan types to fill low leverage roles throughout a 162 game season. He's been fine at that this year. But you have to move those guys out as the season progresses to get to at least 6 guys you can trust in playoff games. That's what my first post said. Chief argued there's no such thing as a low leverage role, and I provided some numbers to explain why I think he's wrong. Now I'm not sure if you're trying to disagree with me as you "liking" his comment suggests, or if you're agreeing with me as your explanation follows my stance from the comment he quoted.

The Twins should be working towards having 5 aces, and 8 closers. If people think that's actually attainable, good for them. I'm a little more realistic, and would say no team has, or ever will, achieve that. If anyone believes there's teams out there without guys they don't want to use in high leverage situations in their pen I'll just agree to disagree with them. That doesn't mean I want Pagan on the team, it just means there are absolutely low leverage roles in modern day pens. 

[stringer bell]

8 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Ok? If there's such thing as a "higher leverage role," then, by definition, there has to be such a thing as a "lower leverage role." I don't know if you're disagreeing with me or what. You're basically just saying what I did in the post chief quoted.

You need Pagan types to fill low leverage roles throughout a 162 game season. He's been fine at that this year. But you have to move those guys out as the season progresses to get to at least 6 guys you can trust in playoff games. That's what my first post said. Chief argued there's no such thing as a low leverage role, and I provided some numbers to explain why I think he's wrong. Now I'm not sure if you're trying to disagree with me as you "liking" his comment suggests, or if you're agreeing with me as your explanation follows my stance from the comment he quoted.

The Twins should be working towards having 5 aces, and 8 closers. If people think that's actually attainable, good for them. I'm a little more realistic, and would say no team has, or ever will, achieve that. If anyone believes there's teams out there without guys they don't want to use in high leverage situations in their pen I'll just agree to disagree with them. That doesn't mean I want Pagan on the team, it just means there are absolutely low leverage roles in modern day pens. 

I guess I wasn't very clear. I wasn't agreeing totally or disagreeing totally. My point was that even in a lower leverage role there will be times when a reliever faces a high-leverage situation. The very best at manipulating situations still will have their #5 or #6 guy in what turns out to be a game situation. You said that Pagan had seldom been in that type of situation so far and I opined that it would become more frequent as the season moves along.

[chpettit19]

40 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

I guess I wasn't very clear. I wasn't agreeing totally or disagreeing totally. My point was that even in a lower leverage role there will be times when a reliever faces a high-leverage situation. The very best at manipulating situations still will have their #5 or #6 guy in what turns out to be a game situation. You said that Pagan had seldom been in that type of situation so far and I opined that it would become more frequent as the season moves along.

For sure. And sometimes Billy Hamilton comes up in game winning situations in extra innings. It doesn't mean Billy Hamilton is in some sort of high leverage role for the White Sox where he's consistently relied upon to win games with his bat.

The argument against "low leverage" roles mostly just feels like saying "well technically they'll have to do it at some point." Of course every player on the roster is expected to play baseball. And they'll be put in big spots from time to time. But there's 8 guys in everyone's bullpen now. I'm just saying let's not act like you can't shield your 7th and 8th relievers from high leverage spots for much of the season pretty darn well. If you're frequently finding yourself being forced to use your worst players in the biggest spots you've got much bigger problems than the last guys in your pen, or on your bench.

[bighat]

44 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I'm just saying let's not act like you can't shield your 7th and 8th relievers from high leverage spots for much of the season pretty darn well. If you're frequently finding yourself being forced to use your worst players in the biggest spots you've got much bigger problems than the last guys in your pen, or on your bench.

And my point has been - if you're going to easily be able to shield your 7th and 8th relievers from high leverage spots, why the hell are we paying a veteran for that role? Why don't the Twins bring up Balazovic and Sands for those positions - not only will they be shielded from any high-level outings, but the Twins will also benefit from being able to develop young arms without worrying about them getting shelled out there. 

Paying Pagan to essentially be a mop-up guy makes zero sense. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

23 hours ago, Muppet said:

The season is long. All players have their ups and downs and deserve a little patience. That said, DFA the MF ASAP. 

This may be the funniest post of the season.