Breaking Down Andrew Morris’s Rough Stretch, and Why It’s Too Soon to Panic

Aince getting called up to the majors in mid-April, Andrew Morris has been extremely streaky. The rookie right-hander finished the month of April with a 6.35 ERA, but rebounded very nicely in May, posting a much more encouraging 2.19 ERA. At times, Morris has looked every bit like a pitcher capable of sticking in the Twins' bullpen long-term.

Recently, though, things have taken a turn for the worse. Despite a huge surge in his strikeout totals, Morris's last three outings have not been sharp. Across those appearances, he's allowed seven earned runs over just 4 2/3 innings, while giving up 11 hits and two walks. (He should have gotten more help from his defense in one of those outings, and arguably, the two runs he gave up then should not have been earned, but still.) While he’s recorded nine strikeouts during that stretch, the results simply haven't been there.

So what's actually been going wrong for Andrew Morris? From what I've gathered, there are a couple of different reasons. The first is that his secondary pitches are not performing well. Over those three most recent outings, Morris has generated a collective whiff rate of just 19% on his secondary offerings. For a pitcher who relies on a diverse arsenal to keep hitters off balance, that's a concerning development. Hitters have simply done a better job of putting those pitches in play. 

When the swing-and-miss ability of those secondary pitches disappears, another issue tends to follow. The quality of contact he’s allowed has changed. Over this recent stretch, Morris' hard-hit rate has climbed substantially, to 44%. That trend is especially troublesome because limiting hard contact has been the best part of Morris's game since he arrived in the majors.

On the season as a whole, he's been excellent at suppressing damage. His barrel rate ranks in the 95th percentile among major-league pitchers, while both his average exit velocity and hard-hit rate sit comfortably within the top quarter of the league. Even when hitters have made contact against Morris this year, it generally hasn't been loud contact. That's a big reason why many of the underlying metrics continue to paint a much more optimistic picture than his traditional numbers would suggest. In fact, both his expected ERA and FIP are more than two runs lower than his actual 5.59 ERA. That's a massive difference.

For much of the season, that gap suggests Morris has been the victim of some poor luck (and, again, that lousy defense), rather than poor pitching. His season-long numbers are inflated by results that don't necessarily match the quality of his performance. This recent stretch, however, feels a little different. The hard-contact problem is real, and if the best part of his game isn't performing the way it needs to, that's when things can become problematic.

Now, with all of that said, it's important to note a couple of things before sounding any alarms. First, these struggles are very new. We're talking about a sample size of just three outings. That's not enough to suddenly rewrite everything we've learned about Morris over the first couple of months of his major-league career. Odds are good that this is nothing more than a bump in the road, which is extremely common for young pitchers adjusting to the highest level of baseball. Major league hitters make adjustments, and young pitchers have to learn how to counter them. That's part of the development process.

The second thing worth mentioning is that Morris's fastball has been awesome. Even during this rough stretch, that pitch has continued to perform at a high level. He's consistently sitting around 97 MPH and has even reached triple digits at times. The velocity has certainly been there, but more importantly, so has the effectiveness. His whiff rate on the four-seam fastball has trended upward, which is an encouraging sign. If the fastball remains a legitimate swing-and-miss weapon, Morris already has a strong foundation to work from while he irons out the issues with his secondary pitches. That's a big reason why I'm not particularly worried about him right now.

The underlying data still shows a pitcher who has been wildly unlucky for much of the season. His ability to limit barrels remains elite; his expected metrics remain strong; and his fastball continues to miss bats at an impressive rate. While the recent struggles are worth monitoring, they don't fundamentally change his outlook.

As I mentioned earlier, the quality of contact piece is the biggest thing to watch. If hitters continue squaring him up and the hard-hit rate remains elevated, that's when the conversation becomes more concerning. But for now, I think this is simply a rough patch. Every young pitcher goes through them. And based on everything we've seen from Morris so far, there's still plenty of reason to believe he'll come out the other side just fine.