Breaking Down Andrew Morris’s Rough Stretch, and Why It’s Too Soon to Panic

[Sam Caulder]

Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images

Aince getting called up to the majors in mid-April, Andrew Morris has been extremely streaky. The rookie right-hander finished the month of April with a 6.35 ERA, but rebounded very nicely in May, posting a much more encouraging 2.19 ERA. At times, Morris has looked every bit like a pitcher capable of sticking in the Twins' bullpen long-term.

Recently, though, things have taken a turn for the worse. Despite a huge surge in his strikeout totals, Morris's last three outings have not been sharp. Across those appearances, he's allowed seven earned runs over just 4 2/3 innings, while giving up 11 hits and two walks. (He should have gotten more help from his defense in one of those outings, and arguably, the two runs he gave up then should not have been earned, but still.) While he’s recorded nine strikeouts during that stretch, the results simply haven't been there.

So what's actually been going wrong for Andrew Morris? From what I've gathered, there are a couple of different reasons. The first is that his secondary pitches are not performing well. Over those three most recent outings, Morris has generated a collective whiff rate of just 19% on his secondary offerings. For a pitcher who relies on a diverse arsenal to keep hitters off balance, that's a concerning development. Hitters have simply done a better job of putting those pitches in play. 

When the swing-and-miss ability of those secondary pitches disappears, another issue tends to follow. The quality of contact he’s allowed has changed. Over this recent stretch, Morris' hard-hit rate has climbed substantially, to 44%. That trend is especially troublesome because limiting hard contact has been the best part of Morris's game since he arrived in the majors.

On the season as a whole, he's been excellent at suppressing damage. His barrel rate ranks in the 95th percentile among major-league pitchers, while both his average exit velocity and hard-hit rate sit comfortably within the top quarter of the league. Even when hitters have made contact against Morris this year, it generally hasn't been loud contact. That's a big reason why many of the underlying metrics continue to paint a much more optimistic picture than his traditional numbers would suggest. In fact, both his expected ERA and FIP are more than two runs lower than his actual 5.59 ERA. That's a massive difference.

For much of the season, that gap suggests Morris has been the victim of some poor luck (and, again, that lousy defense), rather than poor pitching. His season-long numbers are inflated by results that don't necessarily match the quality of his performance. This recent stretch, however, feels a little different. The hard-contact problem is real, and if the best part of his game isn't performing the way it needs to, that's when things can become problematic.

Now, with all of that said, it's important to note a couple of things before sounding any alarms. First, these struggles are very new. We're talking about a sample size of just three outings. That's not enough to suddenly rewrite everything we've learned about Morris over the first couple of months of his major-league career. Odds are good that this is nothing more than a bump in the road, which is extremely common for young pitchers adjusting to the highest level of baseball. Major league hitters make adjustments, and young pitchers have to learn how to counter them. That's part of the development process.

The second thing worth mentioning is that Morris's fastball has been awesome. Even during this rough stretch, that pitch has continued to perform at a high level. He's consistently sitting around 97 MPH and has even reached triple digits at times. The velocity has certainly been there, but more importantly, so has the effectiveness. His whiff rate on the four-seam fastball has trended upward, which is an encouraging sign. If the fastball remains a legitimate swing-and-miss weapon, Morris already has a strong foundation to work from while he irons out the issues with his secondary pitches. That's a big reason why I'm not particularly worried about him right now.

The underlying data still shows a pitcher who has been wildly unlucky for much of the season. His ability to limit barrels remains elite; his expected metrics remain strong; and his fastball continues to miss bats at an impressive rate. While the recent struggles are worth monitoring, they don't fundamentally change his outlook.

As I mentioned earlier, the quality of contact piece is the biggest thing to watch. If hitters continue squaring him up and the hard-hit rate remains elevated, that's when the conversation becomes more concerning. But for now, I think this is simply a rough patch. Every young pitcher goes through them. And based on everything we've seen from Morris so far, there's still plenty of reason to believe he'll come out the other side just fine.

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[bean5302]

Not panicked that a pitcher I didn't expect would be good at the MLB level isn't good at the MLB level.

Stuff+ really likes Morris' arsenal, but MLB hitters say otherwise.

Batters aren't chasing Morris' stuff and their contact rates are high both outside and inside the strike zone. It's a weird mix of metrics.

[Linus]

To me it looks like his off speed stuff is not fooling anyone. The fastball plays but there is a big drop off after that. The last few times I’ve watched he was struggling with control as well. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

I think a lot of Morris' recent problems are because of inconsistent control and command more than anything else. When he misses, he misses by foot or more, not an inch or two. The last two times I've seen him pitch he threw uncompetitive pitches in every at bat – the kind of pitches nobody would ever swing at. That lessens his margin for error on all of his other pitches pretty dramatically and gives hitters a chance to be very selective. Bradley has the same problem. When you look in an effective pitcher like Ryan you notice that his balls are typically a few inches out of the strike zone and are at least somewhat tempting. Guys like Morris and Bradley throw  breaking balls that are foot high, spike changeups, throw fastballs 2 feet inside or outside, etc. - Pitches that just have no chance of ever tempting a batter to swing the bat or causing any concern.

The good news I think this is fixable with time and experience. Some of this is nerves and overthrowing, some of it is not trusting your stuff in critical situations. Look, I would say that Morris is potentially part of the bullpen solution. We need to keep throwing him out there to gain experience and confidence. That goes for a lot of other guys on this team. This year is going to be ugly at times as we try to develop players and some of those ugly moments are to come in Morris is on the mound.

[DataNerd]

Not close to giving up on Morris, but he could use some time in St Paul to mess with the secondaries.  He gets a decent amount of spin to where he should be able to get a breaking ball that will work with the Fastball

[jaimedude]

I think Morris is tipping pitches and has a tell. He has the same look when throwing a 4 seam fastball, elevates high, reaches into his gliove, and seems to grip the ball the same way each time he throws his four seem fastball. The reaching into the glove and raising it high being repetitive would seem to be a tell on film. When he throws certain off speed pitches, he falls off to the same side of mound which is another tell. I think the falling off is effecting command on off speed stuff.  They are gonna have fugure out how to vary his delivery without it being picked up live, or on film. Everyone watches tablets so they are getting much quicker information live. The raising up and gripping the ball every time on a four seamer each time looks like a tell. He has good movement, just gotta harness it. 

[tony&rodney]

Andrew Morris is a work in progress with his breaking balls. He could really use a good changeup. He was working on his pitches at St. Paul to the detriment of his line score, not much different than veteran pitchers working on stuff in Spring Training.

The biggest problem for Morris is the defense behind him. We don't even need to look at FIP if we have watched the games. When a pitcher needs to strike everyone out because the defense is deficient, there is bound to be some improved contact when the pitcher goes for the K. Put some defenders behind Morris and everyone will wonder how he improved so dramatically. His last outing was nearly a blueprint of how things have gone  for Morris. He could use refinement at AAA but he has the stuff. The broken bats and weak contact are real. Most of the hard contact comes after the 3rd or 4th out, which is partly youth and partly extended pitches in an inning. I'm not down on Morris.

There are not any pitchers in MLB that would put up fantastic numbers with the Twins current defensive alignment. I do think that some steps have been made that are making a difference. When Clemens plays 1B, Lee at 3B, and Martin in RF more plays are made in the field. Lewis might pick up 1B quickly. Second base, shortstop, left field, and catcher are lean. Buxton is not the centerfielder he once was due to injuries. It is what it is but change needs to happen before Twins fans can expect their team to move to .500 baseball or higher.