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The Minnesota Twins entered last summer's trade deadline looking to reshape their roster. One year later, one of those decisions continues to loom larger with every dominant outing from Louis Varland.
Varland has blossomed into one of baseball's premier relief pitchers since joining the Toronto Blue Jays. Through 49 appearances this season, the St. Paul native owns a microscopic 0.98 ERA, has already accumulated 3.2 bWAR, converted 23 saves, and earned his first career All-Star selection. Few relievers in baseball have been as valuable.
Minnesota sent Varland and veteran first baseman Ty France to Toronto at last year's trade deadline in exchange for outfielder Alan Roden and pitching prospect Kendrys Rojas. At the time, the Twins believed they were adding long-term value while moving a reliever whose role had fluctuated between the rotation and bullpen.
Now, the deal looks dramatically different. As Minnesota fights to remain in the American League playoff picture, the bullpen has become one of the club's biggest weaknesses. Ironically, the solution may have been wearing a Twins uniform all along.
USA Today's Bob Nightengale recently reported that the organization is still feeling the sting of that decision.
"The Minnesota Twins, who are hanging around the AL Central race, still are having nightmares about trading away reliever Louis Varland a year ago. Varland, their popular homegrown kid, has become an All-Star closer in Toronto. If the Twins had kept him, they might be running away with the AL Central, but instead are desperately scrambling for bullpen help," Nightengale wrote.
It's difficult to argue with that assessment. Varland has been worth 3.62 WPA, second among relievers to San Diego’s Mason Miller. Minnesota’s bullpen as a whole has been worth 1.03 WPA, so adding Varland to that total could be worth multiple wins.
The Twins have spent much of this season searching for reliable late-inning options and have made bullpen upgrades a clear priority ahead of this year's trade deadline. Meanwhile, Varland has emerged as exactly the type of dominant, swing-and-miss reliever every contender covets.
Of course, player development is rarely linear. It's fair to wonder whether Varland reaches this level had he remained in Minnesota. Sometimes a new organization, a different coaching staff, or a defined role can unlock another level. There's no guarantee his breakout would have happened with the Twins. That nuance doesn't make the trade any easier to swallow.
Toronto acquired a controllable reliever who has developed into one of the game's elite closers, while Minnesota is once again spending valuable deadline resources trying to acquire the type of pitcher it already had. That's a difficult cycle for any front office to explain.
The trade may eventually look more balanced if Roden or Rojas develops into an impact major leaguer. Prospect evaluations often take years before a winner can truly be declared.
For now, though, every scoreless inning Varland throws north of the border serves as another reminder of what the Twins gave away, and why it's a move the organization almost certainly wishes it could have back.
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