alexlegge

We probably wouldn't have landed Lackey without last year's deadline. But to say the same thing about any one of those trades individually is inaccurate. Even if we're being generous to Varland or Duran by assuming that they would've kept up the same performance - or better - compared to the first four months of the 2025 season, there's zero chance that the Twins would've leapfrogged more than two other teams in the draft lottery, and vanishingly small chance that they would've leapfrogged more than one. Either way, we're not talking about a direct change in draft order - we're talking about slight changes in the weights of ping pong balls which make the possibility of a draft order change roughly five percent more likely.

The Varland trade cannot be in the same discussion as any other trade. Are there are non-zero chances that Rojas or even Roden could be important role players or valuable trade chips in the near future? Of course. But they both still have an awful lot to prove. Meanwhile, we gave up a guy from the Twin Cities who sure as heck looked like one of the best relievers in the game at the time and was under team control until 2031. The only difference now is that instead of looking like "one of the best relievers in the game," he's rivaling Mason Miller for the best reliever in the game. He would rank third on the 2026 Twins in bWAR or fWAR. Using either metric, he's been more valuable than Gómez and Morris combined, and that holds true even if we're discounting Gómez's negative WAR as a Ray. Varland basically looks like peak Joe Nathan. Not having him - irrespective of all other trades from last year - is literally the difference between us being in contention currently and us being clear odds-on favorites for the third wild-card spot. The move seemed very bad and rushed because it was very bad and rushed. Even if you consider a D to be a failing grade, there are still several gradations of failures possible. The Varland trade is better than the 4 out of 100 I once heard about in a college chemistry course (apparently one student just drew dinosaur cartoons for every answer and didn't write their name). But it's not a 'just below passing' kind of fail either. It's more worthy of a 41% and a "see me after class" note.

Dear Twins Front Office: our guy is ready. He reached base 3 times in five plate appearances last night, including a two-run double. There's ample time to get him on a bus over to Dyersville and even to get a good BP session in before the game. That would be an epically cool way to begin an MLB career. Think of the marketing opportunities. Heck, maybe he starts in RF and Buck starts in CF. Crazier things have happened. Just saying.

I find it kind of funny that the entire fanbase is scared of Emilio Pagan. True, he had some nightmarish outings in 2022 which contributed to the Twins falling out of contention. But the following year, the was a key cog in a solid bullpen for a division-winning Twins team. He was nearly twice as valuable as Griffin Jax that season.

Even if a billion coincidences happen - perhaps involving nerve tonic, gigantism, and a great player on a competitor stumbling into a mysterious vortex - and the Twins somehow win all their remaining games.....even if all that happens AND they open the playoffs with 7 straight victories, I wouldn't give them better than 1 in 10 odds to beat the Dodgers in the World Series.

likely wouldn't have mattered since Seattle has a far better intradivisional record at present. No biggie here, though def something worth keeping an eye on with these late-season series

and for the second straight year, we lose 2 out of 3 in Seattle...with both losses on walk-offs (pretty sure that happened last year too)

It probably tastes better with cookies than with cheese!

If anyone can mail the Twins this Burger, I won't complain.

Brief attempt at optimistic pessimism: IF the Twins lose this game and fail to make the playoffs, then this game will be a microcosm of the whole year: everyone might've expected them to keel over, but they've instead proved themselves to be a formidable big league club with real entertainment value and a lot of fight in them.

It was a poor baseball play, but excellent ballet footwork as the title of this article alludes to. There's gotta be a trade partner out there who values that. How about a three-way trade between the Twins, Alvin Ailey, and some rebuilding team looking to get creative (lookin' at you, Angels)?

I think there's a very good chance he'll become the highest paid catcher in the game if he hits free agency. Keep in mind that the best catcher and the highest paid catcher are often two different players. Currently, the two highest-paid catchers are JT Realmuto and Sean Murphy. Murhpy signed an extension in 2022. Realmuto re-signed with the Phillies this past year as a free agent. Over the last few seasons, he has been worth slightly more than Jeffers - though not by much. Given Jeffers age, I think it's more likely than not for him to end up with a higher AAV than Realmuto. Given inflation, it's not crazy to think that he'd come close to Realmuto's previous free agent contract with the Phillies - at least in AAV. That contract was 5 years, $115M. Jeffers is the same age as Realmuto was when he signed that. I'd predict Jeffers to land something more like 3y/$60M or 4y/$75M, either of which would make him the highest paid catcher in the league* *(edit) this remains accurate, though based on the numbers I'm suggesting, Jeffers would likely only be the highest paid catcher for one or two seasons. Raleigh signed an extension a couple offseasons ago with a pay structure that kicks his salary up to $20M in 2028 and $25M in 2029. Unfortunately, we just saw why he's worth so much.

Thanks, this is definitely a better breakdown than the cursory one I did! To some extent the different WAR columns in the Fangraphs article aren't very helpful in applying to Jeffers. Inevitably as a catcher, a steep decline will be anticipated and factored into a longer term deal. However, he's probably likely to produce more than 2 WAR next year. If I had to predict, I'd say 2.5, though leaning further toward 3 than 2. I wonder if Ben Clemens included players who accepted qualifying offers in the model (probably not?) and/or if there's another iteration of this which does. I'd also be curious to know the cost per WAR specifically among one-year "prove it" deals which have grown in popularity over the last decade. Ultimately, it all boils down to the fact that the $23M qualifying offer is likely to be very close to what his actual 2027 value relative to free agent salaries is expected to be. Perhaps it's a slight underpay or overpay, but likely not by much in either direction. And yeah, as you stated, the big reason for him to reject it is about the total guaranteed contract, not AAV (which would almost certainly be less than the QO if he signs for >2 years)

The $25M might also be a high estimate given catchers' tendency to have shortened careers and injury accumulation. I imagine that brings down their free agent value a bit. But not a crazy amount. Seeing him land an AAV in the 15-20 range wouldn't shock me, especially if a team signs him for 4+ years. Definitely hard to predict though. I don't recall any big-name catchers hitting the market recently, so Jeffers will actually be a pretty interesting test case assuming he does.

How many free agent catchers of Jeffers caliber have hit the market recently? My calculation here is by the books. It's likely that he'd end up making at or near the most of any catcher in the game assuming he hits free agency. This values increase over time.