Gut Punch! Carlos Correa Signs with the Giants

[Seth Stohs]

Twins fans, we held out hope as long as we could, and we konw that the Twins made a more-than-fair effort, but shortstop Carlos Correa (and his agent Scott Boras) are in an agreement with the San Francisco Giants on a 13-year, $350 million deal, according to ESPN's Jeff Passan. 

Image courtesy of Peter Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

 

Twins fans held on to hope, but late on Tuesday night, those hopes were dashed as Jeff Passan announced that free agent shortstop Carlos Correa had agreed to a 13-year, $350 million deal with the Giants. 

While it is absolutely clear that the Twins were very interested in bringing back Carlos Correa, it is frustrating to have lost out to a big-market team. As you know, the top three markets in the US are New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago. Philadelphia comes in at number four with Dallas-Ft. Worth at number five. Number six is where we find San Francisco-San Jose. Minneapolis-St. Paul comes in at #14. 

We know that the Twins put up a "massive" offer to Correa and Boras this week.  The Twins front office clearly wanted to keep the All Star shortstop. But when Trea Turner and Xander Bogaerts signed 11-year deals for arguably more than we expected, Scott Boras pounced. According to Jon Heyman, the Twins were at $285 million over 10 years ($28.5 AAV). His AAV (Average Annual Value) on the 13-year deal is just under $27 million, but he gets the extra three years. 

The Giants thought they had a chance to sign Aaron Judge earlier in the offseason, but he signed with the Yankees. They are believed to be in a two-team race for the services of LHP Carlos Rodon, though most believe he will wind up with the Yankees as well. The Giants clearly wanted to make a splash after seeing the Padres making big signings and needing to make up a lot of ground on the Dodgers. This is their move. 

So, what is the pivot for the Twins?

First, it is theoretically possible that the Twins could sign both SS Dansby Swanson and Rodon for about $350 million. I don't see it. But the Twins will certainly pivot to the former Braves shortstop as their fallback. How much will Swanson want? Rumors are all over the place. It could be anywhere from six years and $140 million to eight years and $200 million. 

However, Swanson is coming off of a great season with Atlanta. The Vanderbilt product has been on a lot of winning teams and may bring many of the same traits that Correa brought to the Twins. So while it is disappointing to not sign Correa, the Twins can salvage the offseason by showing fans they're serious and spending the money they were planning to spend on Correa. 

The other fallback plan, of course, is using Kyle Farmer at shortstop. The Twins acquired him after the season for RHP Casey Legumina. And then we await the return of Royce Lewis or the arrival of Brooks Lee, or both. 

We will have much more analysis on the news that Carlos Correa will be signing with the Giants coming, but share your initial thoughts here. 

 

 

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[HerbieFan]

If rumors we heard of offers Twins made, then it sounds like Falvine made a competitive offer and effort to get him.  13 years is just ludicrous...for anyone.  We'll see how the FO pivots from here.  Is it Rodon?  No way Swanson comes here.  I guess it's Kyle Farmer season at SS until Lewis is ready?

[Aggies7]

13 years? Lmao baseball is ridiculous. They’ll need to install a hand rail going down the first base line for the last year of his contract 

[QuinnSwanny]

Well as a Twins fan it’s always hard to hold out hope they will sign big names or make big trades. However this time we offered him big money. Giants just came out with a ridiculous contract which will come back to haunt them… I do like how he held out however as that money we could have spent on him can now be used on a much needed position. Starting Pitching… Carlos Rodon to the Twins???

[jkcarew]

If you saw it coming 330 days ago, can you still call it a gut-punch?

[Muppet]

If I ever see a Christian Dior store I’ll just go in and pretend I can afford whatever I want. 

[Rosterman]

Well, the Twins did do $105 for 3 years with an opt out. Looks like they were willing to continue that price for up to...9 years!?!

 

Let's spend money mroe wisely. But shows the Twins would not be afraid to spend $30m on the...right...player.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Dodged a bullet, though not for lack of trying. Lewis or Lee will be putting up fairly comparable numbers in a few years. 

[Nashvilletwin]

2 minutes ago, jkcarew said:

If you saw it coming 330 days ago, can you still call it a gut-punch?

Yeah, it always felt like that.  I wanted CC a lot, but it’s not like I can forget how worthless he was at the plate when we really needed him. September just felt like garbage time in an NFL game.

Swanson would still be a great pickup.  A Farmer solution feels like a just a placeholder waiting on a good, but risky, bet.

Without CC or Swanson, I’m not sure it makes sense to break the bank on the other Carlos. We need to face facts: we really weren’t that competitive with CC and the lineup we are projecting without him is not an upgrade.  We were realistically in somewhat of a rebuild anyway for the next year or two and now that is even more true.  Rodon will not lead us to the promised land any more than CC would have.

Nope, it’s probably time to implement that time honored small/mid market strategy - build up a young solid core at bargain rates and then splurge a bit when the window looks like it is opening. Sad, but that’s the reality of being a franchise like the Twins in a non-salary cap league.

[MTV]

I’m…lost. Idk where the Twins move from this, you needed a high-end SS to bat 3rd in your lineup, and they swung and missed on Correa, Bogaerts and Turner. To be fair, the deals they sign were seemingly ludicrous, and I don’t blame the FO for not spending $280m+ on a single player (especially for those years oh my god). This team is gonna need leadership, and an Injury-Prone Buxton ain’t gonna do it. Now the question just sinks in: where now?

[ashbury]

The 13 years is nearly irrelevant. Total contract value is almost always the name of the game, and the Twins come up well short if they offered under $300M with player opt-outs as the sweetener.  The Giants will release Correa well before 13 years and just treat the remaining payments as deferred salary for the good years they actually got.

"They tried," and almost surely knew it wouldn't be close to enough.

[Nashvilletwin]

2 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

Dodged a bullet, though not for lack of trying. Lewis or Lee will be putting up fairly comparable numbers in a few years. 

Agree 100%. Both will be; Julien as well. 

[Aggies7]

5 minutes ago, ashbury said:

The 13 years is nearly irrelevant. Total contract value is almost always the name of the game, and the Twins come up short if they offered under $300M with player opt-outs.  The Giants will release Correa well before 13 years and just treat the remaining payments as deferred salary for the good years they actually got.

What if they don’t get any really* good years

[RedneckRay]

27 minutes ago, HerbieFan said:

If rumors we heard of offers Twins made, then it sounds like Falvine made a competitive offer and effort to get him.  13 years is just ludicrous...for anyone.  We'll see how the FO pivots from here.  Is it Rodon?  No way Swanson comes here.  I guess it's Kyle Farmer season at SS until Lewis is ready?

Heyman said the Twins offered 285/10. Theoretically competitive, but realistically had no shot. I personally wouldnt have given Correa 13 years, but I would have offered him 315/10.

[Aggies7]

5 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

Dodged a bullet, though not for lack of trying. Lewis or Lee will be putting up fairly comparable numbers in a few years. 

100%, I don’t get the angst

[mnfireman]

For a little perspective, Rod Carew played 12 seasons for the Twins, Kirby Puckett played his whole career, 12 seasons, for the Twins, and Joe Mauer played his whole career, 15 seasons, for the Twins. Correa has already played 8 seasons and has an injury history attached to him, don't see this contract as being very team friendly in about 5 years.

[ashbury]

5 minutes ago, Aggies7 said:

What if they don’t get any good years

Every contract carries that risk. Bigger market teams can underwrite bigger risk.

[raindog]

9 minutes ago, ashbury said:

The 13 years is nearly irrelevant. Total contract value is almost always the name of the game, and the Twins come up well short if they offered under $300M with player opt-outs as the sweetener.  The Giants will release Correa well before 13 years and just treat the remaining payments as deferred salary for the good years they actually got.

"They tried," and almost surely knew it wouldn't be close to enough.

Right on the money. Their 285 million offer shows that they weren’t serious. 

[Unwinder]

Yeah, this isn't merely a case of the haves beating out the have-nots, this is an absurdly long contract which could very well include more bad years than good. I feel like this deal would be controversial in Minnesota from the get-go. Long live Lewis, long live Lee. Thank you Farmer or maybe Swanson for being the bridge through hopefully only a few mediocre years.

[mnfireman]

27 minutes ago, jkcarew said:

If you saw it coming 330 days ago, can you still call it a gut-punch?

You saw a 13 year deal from another team coming last spring?? How did you not win the $$ Billion powerball??

[Lasorda_This_Out]

OK..goodbye CC. OK with KF at SS till Lee-Lewis appear at The Show.

Now, lets see what the Twins FO do with the cash pile still available?

[Lasorda_This_Out]

Who owns the Giants and where do they get the DaNang?

[mnfireman]

Well, the Yankees are supposedly interested in Kepler, maybe the Twins get Kiner-Falefa back and 1 or 2 young P's in return.

Also think we see Arraez as part of a deal for Lopez at this point.

[Brandon]

The Twins could have gone to 11 years and 305-310 but going beyond that was too much.  The Giants lost out on several players and had to make something happen.  This move for them reeks of desperation and hope for high inflation to lower that contract in the last 3-5 years.

Also we should go get Elvis Andrus on a 1 or 2 year deal.  I don’t want Swanson at more than 8/160.  I am fine with waiting on LEwis/Lee at SS.

[ashbury]

[Nashvilletwin]

5 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

Well, the Yankees are supposedly interested in Kepler, maybe the Twins get Kiner-Falefa back and 1 or 2 young P's in return.

Also think we see Arraez as part of a deal for Lopez at this point.

Disagree. Arraez is basically the face of the franchise right now (sorry 100 game Buxton).  He’s not being traded. 

[Fat Calvin]

I think this is going to be one of those blessings in disguise.  I think the Twins should bide their time, go with Farmer as a stopgap until Lee or our twice cursed #1 pick a few years back are ready to take over.  In the meantime, try to get a good right handed batting outfielder, and maybe a starting pitcher not named Rodon.  No insane contracts, please!

[twinssporto]

I really liked CC but 13 year/$350mm is crazy talk....I am so glad we dodged this bullet. I'm going to sleep like a baby tonight and wait for Lewis or Lee to arrive.

To Correa: Congratulations! Enjoy the financial freedom!

To the Giants: Caveat Emptor!

[big dog]

I am just so relieved to hear that he will finally be able to give his family a good life. 

Can't wait for all the things he says about how great the Bay Area is.  Hopefully he can buy a mansion near a Dior store.

 

[Wilco1]

I don’t feel any player is worth that much money so I was relieved that he signed with the giants. Now my hope is the money the we’re prepared to spend on Carlos, could go towards  both Swanson and Rodon. I would say that would be a greater value to the club than just Carlos. Now we know the management was willing to go that high, we should expect a concerted effort to go after them before they get signed elsewhere.