Gut Punch! Carlos Correa Signs with the Giants

[Riverbrian]

Good Morning... I slept great. What is everyone talking about this morning? 

 

[Riverbrian]

[Squirrel]

7 hours ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

Dodged a bullet, though not for lack of trying. Lewis or Lee will be putting up fairly comparable numbers in a few years. 

Maybe. And in a few years. So we play the wait game that never comes on prospects. Playing for the future is what we’ve been doing the last 10 yrs. Goodie, we’ll keep doing that. It’s a winner,

That said, 13 yrs is ridiculous and as disappointed as I am, I’m glad the Twins wouldn’t match that.

[Squirrel]

7 hours ago, Aggies7 said:

13 years? Lmao baseball is ridiculous. They’ll need to install a hand rail going down the first base line for the last year of his contract 

For once, I whole heartedly agree with you ?

[jmlease1]

well, it's disappointing but not all that surprising. SF clearly had the money after the bids they made on Judge and once they decided they wanted Correa it was going to be nigh-impossible to keep them from getting him. They simply have the ability to tack on $50M more without blinking in a way that's much more difficult for the Twins to do. The Giants can have a payroll over $200M annually and still be profitable, right now. The Twins can't. The Giants can pay in to the luxury tax and still net out ok...the Twins can't. Baseball economics are not great for anyone outside the biggest markets and the revenue sharing that makes the NFL work so well is basically still a joke in MLB.

13 years. Whoof. Correa might be one of the few players that can make that work, but the odds are against him. I do think he'll age fairly well as a player; his skills at SS (great positioning, strong arm, etc) age better than a speed-based player, and with that arm he can slide over to 3B just fine if the range drops too far. But they're making a bet that Correa's career will age like Cal Ripken Jr's: all-star until you hit 35, solid regular for another 3-4 years, and maybe 1-2 bad years at the very end, with good health throughout. That's a big ask, to match an inner-circle HoFer, a top 5 SS of all-time. There's huge risk here.

I still wanted Correa. would have definitely done the 10 years and clearly the Twins were there on the AAV. But the Turner & Bogaerts contracts showed that some teams were looking to stretch contracts to manage their luxury tax payments and keep AAVs down and were willing to underwrite some huge risk. I think Correa wanted the 13 years, I think Boras wanted the $350M number, and I think that's probably more risk than the Twins could swallow.

[DJL44]

This is an interesting comparison that tells a lot about the current economic structure of baseball. The Twins and Giants probably have a similar median value for the remainder of Correa's career - 35 WAR. What you're seeing is that 1 WAR is worth $8M to the Twins while it's worth $10M to the Giants (and more to the Mets). Neither team thinks Correa is going to be worth a darn at age 40 but the Twins don't pay the luxury tax so there is no incentive to spread out the years like there is for the Giants. The Giants probably would have made this a 20 year contract if MLB would have let them. The Twins will have to pay higher salary per year on shorter years to get top talent because time value of money makes that a more valuable contract for the player (8/285 is more valuable than 10/300 because $1M now is worth more than $2M ten years from now).

The Twins cannot afford a rebuild this season. They have a TV contract up for renegotiation. The White Sox are keeping their money in their wallet and the Guardians are beatable. Half of their pitching rotation (Gray, Maeda, Mahle) becomes a free agent next year. They have to try to win this division in 2023.

I agree that we are looking at a story of vastly different economic incentives for MLB teams. The large market teams want the playoff windfall so they will pay top dollar for free agents. Some of the small market teams will compete but only if it doesn't cost them much more than the minimum payroll (Guardians, A's). The mid-market teams (Twins, Cardinals) have to develop from within and are willing to pay for arbitration salaries or team friendly contracts signed when the player is under team control but can't afford top free agents.

[Karbo]

I would rather see the Twins sign a good RH hitting OF than spending big bucks on Rodon. 

[Major League Ready]

I could only find 9 contracts of 8 or more years that have reached their conclusion for position players.  I calculated the average WAR per year for the back half of these contracts.  For contracts with an odd number of years, I used half of the middle year.  The results may ease the pain of losing Correa on a 13 year contract.  7 of the 9 averaged less than 1 year over the last half of their contract.   As ugly as the 8-10 years contracts have been, these 13 year contracts taking a player past age 40 are likely really ugly.  

	fWAR	bWAR
Derek Jeter	4.42	4.16
Dave Winfield	1.98	2.22
Joey Votto	0.82	0.92
Alex Rodriguez	0.77	0.64
Robinson Cano	0.26	0.22
Albert Pujlos	0.15	0.21
Jason Hayward	-0.05	0.30
Miguel Cabrera	2.60	-0.27
Prince Fileder	-0.18	-0.18
Averge	1.20	0.91

[FlyingFinn]

Prediction - from 2028 through 2036, we will be saying, "sure glad we didn't spend all that money on Correa who isn't putting up the numbers like he used to (or he's injured)." Short-term, it will hurt the Twins.

[LewFordLives]

I'm not losing sleep over this. Correa is a great player,........but he's not THAT good. That's a ridiculous amount of money. He will have 3-4 good seasons and then be dead wood with the Giants trying everything they can to unload him for luxery tax reasons. 

 

[Thebigalguy]

Disappointed. Dior won’t be in the quaint  Twin Cities. “Show me the money!” he shouted with greed, and boy, SF did just that. I say hold tight, wait for Lewis at short, and stay away from the greedheads. We’ve got the horses we need. Let’s go get the World Series ring.

[EGFTShaw]

Lots of comments all over the place here.

#eyeRoll

But 10 years for what XB got at 11 and under what TT & the Slide Machine got is not going to do it.  

You can treat the final years as many different things, deferred salary, sunk cost, etc...It's irrelevant what you call it.  Club still has to pay it.

If what is said about C4 is true with respect to his interest in all things baseball, the working with teammates, etc... then why not tack on the opportunity for partial ownership.  Or a way to transition into coaching/managing/GM-ing or whatever it might be that C4 wants to do.  I could easily see him moving into these roles after he is done playing.

10 Years and something significant beyond the XB and TT contracts.  Heck I would even go towards the Judge number, because the Twins are not and never will be tax offenders and definitely not repeat offenders.

So, we move on from C4.

Not going to bash anyone including FO or owners or C4.

Let's move on, see what we can do next; but logically.  I think the pursuit of C4 made a lot of sense, (except if I was FO making decisions, I would be looking at the TV contract and marketing options along with the salary.  C4 would have helped both and therefore I would go higher in $$ numbers than years), but now is not the time, nor do I think this FO will do it, to do a knee jerk reaction because we missed out.

Rodon would help, but at what cost.  

Swanson could help, but not as much as the upside of Rodon.

I am not spending money just to SPEND money.  But then again I am not going bargain basement hunting like we have done so often before.

Remove the emotions from the roller coaster and move on.

[DJL44]

14 minutes ago, Karbo said:

I would rather see the Twins sign a good RH hitting OF than spending big bucks on Rodon. 

There aren't any of those. Wil Myers or bust.

[Whitey333]

I agree with an earlier poster who said he saw this coming some 300 some days ago.  We all did.  No not the 13 year deal but knowing from day one that Correa was only here for the one year.  Make no mistake about it.  We were all used by Correa and his camp from day one.  This was never about the Twins, it was about Correa using the team, and fans for his own benefit.  It worked perfectly for him.  He played the system well.  Now the Twins can hopefully work on bettering the overall team.  Back to normal.  The Twins did sign two washed up pitchers to minor league contracts this week.  Yes, back to normal.

[Riverbrian]

As fans we tend to look at Free Agency from the standpoint of a team shopping for a SS. 

It's the opposite.

The SS is shopping for a team. 

What's next... we need offense. 

 

[Nine of twelve]

There is no way the Twins would have or should have matched or beaten this offer. The only good thing about the whole situation is that by negotiating for Correa's services the Twins forced another team to overpay by a whole lot, thereby making it more difficult for that team to improve their roster in other ways. It's just unfortunate that this is more helpful to the Dodgers than it is helpful to the Twins.

[AlwaysinModeration]

A few different ways of thinking about this:

1.  Correa passed on the latter two years of the Twins’ 3/105.  So he passed  on 2/70 and instead got 13/350.  If he had take the Twins options, would he have gotten 11/280 in two years?  That’s $25mm/year.

2.  The Twins paid him $35mm last year, and then offered him 10/285 on top of that.  That’s 11/320 they offered him in total.  In other words, the Twins offered a player 11 years of $29mm/year.

3.  He’s making $27mm/year from the Giants.  That’s an $8mm/payout from what the Twins would have been paying him this year and next year if he had taken the option years.

4. I’m dying to know what the other offers the Twins made him are.  Reports of 6 years at $30mm+ per year.  Opt outs?  It seems like he could have done a lot better if he’d gone year-to-year or gotten a contract with options.

Anyway, it was fun to have him on the Twins this year, but not overly upset that he signed with the Giants.  (Glad it’s not the Yankees.)

[MN_ExPat]

6 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

The fact that the higher AAV is being touted when they came up well short is what's cringey, not the fact that he's no longer a member of the Twins. 

It came up "well short" because the G-Men made an insane (and yes I realize that has been the status quo so far the off-season) offer.

[Nashvilletwin]

6 hours ago, se7799 said:

Honestly if you think we have already been rebuild mode...I'm not sure if you have ever seen a rebuild then.Trading prospects for 2 good starting pitchers in the last 10 months does not indicate we have been rebuilding.  Just sayin.

Agree, the FO was putting chips down in the hope that we could make a run with CC, and now maybe Swanson.  But the old “young core” is over, done. We did not get it done with BB, MK, MS, JP, and JB (who rightfully left earlier). Mahle was a Hail Mary to try to save last season (that backfired) plus a bet CC would return this year (that backfired too).  And resigning CC was more about a competitive rebuild - I think he even understood he was going to be a key cog in getting the new young guys developed.  With CC this team would have a had a shot in ‘23, but would really would have been developing for a more open window in ‘24-‘26.  That’s the bet the FO was willing to make by paying big money on a long term deal for CC.

[Beast]

I just don’t get fans’ reactions.  It’s not “too much.”  It’s market value.  This is what these players cost now.  If you want to be good, pay it.  If you don’t want to pay it, enjoy losing every year, and pray for an outlier every 25 years when you hit the prospect lottery (until they leave for the Yankees or Giants for real money).

What bullet did we dodge?  The team might stink 8 years from now as Correa declines?  It’s dodging a bullet to be a non-competitive franchise every year vs. some hypothetical year down the road?  I just want to grab people by the shoulder and shake them. “Wake up!  Moneyball is dead - in fact - it was never alive!  The As didn’t win anything.  Stop it!”  It’s not a viable strategy.  Never has been.  Never will be.

I don’t care what their level of “try” was.  They failed.  Again.  Just like they always do.  They’re losers.  Plain and simple.  Quit making excuses and handing out head pats.  Get the freaking job done for once.

Im glad people take such joy in the Pohlads saving money for something down the road.  That hypothetical future year that we’ve been waiting for since they bought the team when they’ll take winning seriously and invest.  We’ve talked about that through how many waves of prospects, losing seasons, and playoff ass kickings now?  Are we going to keep going down this insane path expecting to win something?  If you’re fine with being a perpetual loser with no hope…good for you.  As much as you may think it doesn’t make you a superior fan.

Same thing every year.  It’s like Stockholm syndrome.  People here throw a party that we “avoided” signing high-end free agents….and then we proceed to get our asses kicked by the teams that signed them.  We ignore all of the success stories, and find the one bust and say “See!  you can’t sign free agents!”  It’s asinine.  Almost to the point of being comical.

[ChermesZ]

Can we just use the money lost out on Correa on:

 

• Giving big contracts to Guardian/Dodger/Ray scouting and development people
• Raising the pay scale of our minor leagues so that international players are more likely to sign with us (50,000 ones, not big ones)

We are never going to play/pay with the big boys, so why not be creative on how we spend the money and not be used for emotional leverage again?

 

[Squirrel]

39 minutes ago, FlyingFinn said:

Prediction - from 2028 through 2036, we will be saying, "sure glad we didn't spend all that money on Correa who isn't putting up the numbers like he used to (or he's injured)." Short-term, it will hurt the Twins.

Yep. We keep playing for the future, never for the now. For once I wanted to see the 'now' ... and for all these people saying 'Good, I'm glad' ... they'd better not complain about the SS in game threads this coming season ?

We certainly could have matched the dollars, but chose not to. I'm glad we don't have a 13-yr contract, though, so ... disappointed but not overly surprised. Hope now they go all in and get one quality starter and two quality BP arms. And hope the infield can keep down the hits.

 

[gbg]

Correa signed the 2nd largest free agent contract ever, per MLB Trade Rumors. 

Because we didn't exceed that, we "weren't serious"??

[BobAzar]

I wanted Correa back, but not for 13 years. Im ok losing him if thats what it took. 

[terrydactyls]

IMHO, the best move for the Twins between now and spring training is to sign as many players as they can that they believe can be traded in late July.  

[Loosey]

I don't blame this front office for not paying for 13 years, what I do (or eventually will) blame this for is not seeing that they likely were be played by Boras and sitting out of free agency hoping Correa decided to stay.  At some point it had to be clear they likely were being used to get Correa maximum value.  Even if they offered him 10 years/$285MM and he didn't say yes, that should have been the sign Boras and Correa were going to be using teams to get him to a figure they wanted.  I also assume Bora gave them a figure they wanted and it wasn't met until last night.  Now Swanson is going to be overpaid simply by being the last man standing and the Twins will still be paying a shortstop $25M a year assuming that is the pivot.  And if it is, it should be Swanson + a pitcher. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

8 hours ago, twinssporto said:

I really liked CC but 13 year/$350mm is crazy talk....I am so glad we dodged this bullet. I'm going to sleep like a baby tonight and wait for Lewis or Lee to arrive.

To Correa: Congratulations! Enjoy the financial freedom!

To the Giants: Caveat Emptor!

Good post. Thanks.

[Doctor Gast]

Now we need to pivot, Swanson? if you think we had a chance with Correa we have 0 chance to sign Swanson. Royce Lewis needs to be our long term SS. So we need a place holder, FA isn't the answer. Right now with Farmer as SS, we have absolutely zero 3B, SS, 2B depth. Do you have any idea what that means? We had a taste of that when Polanco was on the IL where we had Gordon & Arraez subbing, that was terrible! And that's having Correa &  the "shift" to help us, this year we have no "shift", no Correa and no Urshela. That is a gigantic hole.

Those who say "we have Farmer, we're good", have no understanding of the ramifications of their statement. Miranda has very little MLB experience at 3B, we don't know how he'll hold up. Let's say he doesn't hold up or he gets hurt, who do we have to sub him? Arreaz? Maybe if he gets a ton of work in ST to improve his hands (if he's around). Farmer? He's above avg. fielding & mashes LHPs but sucks against RHPs (which would be 70% of the time). If he gets hurt who do we have to sub him? Polanco? then we have Polanco at SS & Gordon (or Arraez) at 2B, being well below par at SS & 2B. Polanco a stalwart at 2B, at SS his ankles can't support the position which show up in his offense & makes his defense worse.

As you can see we not only have 0 3B, SS 2B depth but also our core is fragile. Our situation could very easily become disasterous & sabotage our season, if not dealt with. The hole that Correa was suppose to fill is still there. Who can fill it? I have 3 options, I'll give you my top choice, that's Luis Guillorme (NYM). 

Guillorme is a utility player who plays behind Lindor. He's profiled as a SS, he has a slick glove, good hands & good baseball sense and has proved that if given a some what chance to play regularly he can hit. As a frustrated SS, I'm confident that if he's given an opportunity to start regular at SS, he'll rise to the occasion much like Hoerner & Kim have done (my other 2 choices). He'd be a true platoon to Farmer that should at least start 70% of the time. He'll be cheap & should be easy to obtain.

Yes, a RH power hitting OFer would be nice and a frontline SP (under current philosophy) is a necessity and Guillerme can wait but he should be our #1 priority.

[beckmt]

I am disappointed but not surprised it came to this.  This will be the rule until baseball has a hard cap or cuts back to 16 - 24 teams.  I wonder how long the small market owners put up with this.   Or until all TV and radio income is shared for all teams. 

Time to move on.  I would not pay Roden for 7 years, that is a much worse bet than Correa.  

Two ways forward.  Trade for pitching, even if it will hurt,  or trade the starters done at the end of the year, for top flight prospects (dangerous, but you have to trust the FO).  Don't know which will be picked, but we will soon find out.  Cleveland has won for years with top flight pitching, we can do the same, while having the money for better on field players. 

[Johnny Ringo]

The Correa episode confirms that the Pohlad boys view the club as the family Italian restaurant they inherited. They will just keep shoveling out the same mediocre spaghetti and meatballs and they are convinced that Minnesota fans will continue to eat it.