What Would a True "Blow It Up" Offseason Look Like for the Minnesota Twins?

[Nick Nelson]

Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson, Matt Krohn, Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

Twins leadership has hinted, not so subtly, that fans can expect a non-competitive rebuild season in 2026. The big question is how far they plan to lean into this. The baseline scenario is that the Twins mostly stand pat, holding onto what they've got and maybe spending modestly to try and fill some gaps. 

That is, I would argue, the best fans can expect. It's not what I'm expecting.

Based on everything I've seen and heard, in combination with my general lack of faith in ownership's mettle (regardless of "new investors"), I believe the Twins are going to full-on tank next year. They'll dump more of their more even moderately expensive prime-aged players who have value — for the players' sakes as much as theirs — and they'll run out a very low payroll in 2026 under the messaging of a youth-driven rebuild. "Come see the kids play at Target Field!"

How might this actually play out in practice? To convey an image of what the most extreme version of a conclusive teardown this offseason might look like, I theorized a few trade destinations for players who would be likely to depart. I'm not gonna get into guessing at what the returns might look like — that's a matter for another day, or for the commenters to muse on — but I wanted to put a little more specificity by identifying some logical trade partners.

Here's a rundown of some moves I could envision, followed by an overview of what would remain.

Trade Joe Ryan to the Red Sox and Pablo Lopez to the Mets.
Minnesota and Boston were in (potentially deep) talks over Ryan trade at the deadline. The Red Sox could use a starter like him added to their rotation, which was underscored in a playoff exit against the Yankees. I have little doubt these discussions will pick up again in the offseason so it's just a matter of getting across the finish line. 

Lopez to the Mets is a bit more of a creative and unfounded guess but makes a lot of sense in my mind. New York just experienced a dramatic midseason collapse, and you just know owner Steve Cohen is looking to make an ambitious statement this winter. Lopez would give them the durable, veteran, front-end starter they need, and they won't blink at adding his salary.

Trade Byron Buxton to the Braves.
This pains me to write. It's true that Buxton has declared his intention to remain in a Twins uniform for life, but sometimes people reconsider things. If the front office is up-front with Buxton about what the next two years have in store, it's entirely possible Buxton changes his tune, knowing that Minnesota's next contending window won't likely overlap with his ability to contribute at a high level.

In the same vein as Carlos Correa and Houston, the idea of Buxton accepting a trade only to one team — his hometown Braves — feels plausible. So does the idea of Atlanta pursuing Buxton's All-Star impact coming off a disappointing season, though they'd have to figure a few things out in the outfield.

Trade Royce Lewis to the Angels.
Another boring "trade to hometown" concept that also has merits. I have a hard time envisioning a Lewis trade that makes much sense for the Twins, given how low his stock is at the moment, but maybe a downtrodden Angels team gambles on the change-of-scenery effect and pays a reasonable premium for the upside and three remaining years of service. They did watch Lewis launch a pair of homers in their ballpark near the end of the season.

It's not really a matter of money, because Lewis's projected salary ($3 million according to MLBTR) isn't substantial. But, fair or not, it's just hard to see any kind of true "reset" taking place on this team with Lewis still a part of it. And he hasn't been talking like a guy who's in lockstep with team leadership in quite a while.

Trade Ryan Jeffers to the Rays.
Tampa is known to be looking for catching help coming off a season where they ranked third-to-last in fWAR at the position. Jeffers is slated to make around $6.6 million in his final season before free agency, which is probably not enough to make even the low-budget Rays balk, but perhaps too much for a tanking Twins team — especially if they feel they can extract some real value before he becomes a free agent. 

The Twins have traded with the Rays plenty of times before, including most recently at the deadline when they dealt Griffin Jax for Taj Bradley.

Where Does This Leave Us?
Okay, so in this most extreme vision for wiping the slate clean, the Twins part with roughly $50 million in salary, and basically every veteran player from the previous wave. I left out Bailey Ober, only because the value proposition of trading him is so unfavorable, but he could conceivably be shipped out too. I also left out Trevor Larnach, for similar reasons, and just to keep some small semblance of continuity on the offense. 

Below I took a spin at concocting a 2026 roster in this aftermath. Spoiler alert: the payroll amounts to under $50 million, with a large portion of it going toward Carlos Correa in Houston. A few decisions I made to lend some realism:

• Had them re-sign Christian Vazquez for $3 million as a veteran stopgap as they figure out their post-Jeffers future at catcher.
• Also had the Twins reunite with Isiah Kiner-Falefa, a middling free agent, to fill in at shortstop with Lee shifting over to third in Lewis's stead. The idea here is that Kiner-Falefa is competently keeping the seat warm until Kaelen Culpepper arrives.
• On that note, the upside of this generally grim scenario is that the Twins will be unimpeded in pushing their top prospects into the spotlight. In fact, to generate some shred of enthusiasm, they may feel compelled to do so. For that reason, I've got Walker Jenkins on the Opening Day roster, playing center field as Buxton's successor.

I mean, yikes. I will say up-front that what I have laid out above is undoubtedly exaggerated. Though I do consider myself pretty pessimistic about the team's intentions at this point, I'm not expecting a sub-$50 million payroll. 

First of all, they're not going to trade ALL of those guys. (But if they trade even one I wonder why they wouldn't just trade most.) Moreover, they are going to get back talent in these trades. Significant talent in some cases. Probably major-league talent and maybe a few guys already making over the minimum. And yeah, the front office will make a few procedural signings beyond the ones I included, maybe spending a few mil on some relievers, but be assured: they're not throwing any serious money at free agency.

The bottom line here is that what's presented above is unfortunately not out of the question. If the Twins are serious about clearing the books and starting over as ownership reconfigures and a lockout looms, the exodus that is yet to come could be staggering for what fans remain. Brace yourselves.

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[Cory Engelhardt]

I wish this would have been written out with what returns came back in all of these deals. It’s impossible for me to see a way that all of these players were traded and we didn’t receive anything back for them that makes the mlb roster. That’s almost impossible to do, right?

Arguably having Larnach still on the roster almost feels the most unrealistic here. I could be wrong. 

[Fatbat]

I agree @Cory Engelhardt without knowing what we get back to fill the roster is futile. We gave away too much talent at the deadline for too little return already. If all we got back was more middling but ready to be average prospects, why even have a team? Just contract. 
They need something to build around but this 2nd sell off gets rid of the core.  Its a nice start to an exercise that hopefully will not happen….. but its the Pohlads still in charge….

[Riverbrian]

If Ryan, Lopez, Buxton, Lewis and Jeffers all quit baseball and joined the circus.

This is what the roster would look like. 

That would leave the same impression on your readers with this 50 million payroll exercise. 

I'll continue to assume that we will get players back in these 5 trades. 

 

[Brandon27]

Twins won't trade lewis i see twins trading buxton or pablo/ryan  to the yankees for nice haul that includes Lombard jr 

[h2oface]

Who are the quiet new limited partners that bailed out the Poland scum that allowed them to get financially bailed out from their supposed debt and tank this team? Why is it a secret?

[Doctor Wu]

47 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Arguably having Larnach still on the roster almost feels the most unrealistic here. I could be wrong. 

Agreed. If they seriously consider a more radical rebuild, Larnach needs to be dealt also. 

[Reptevia]

Agree with the trades. No major league team should have Vasquez, Outman or Gasper on it. Can’t really have Larnach AND  Wallner either. Martin, Lee and Clemens on VERY short leashes. 

[LeatherAntenna]

Is this story trying to brace us for 120 losses next year?

[Cory Engelhardt]

Could an article be written or amended to have what possible returns would look like and how they would fit into the roster?

For example, I don't want this to happen, but I could easily see Ryan traded. He is really the only one that could arguably be described as having the highest potential trade value they will have at any point. If he is traded, I have to think a bat comes back along with like 2-3 other really good prospects. I also think at minimum Larnach will bring back a reliever that is in the similar vein to when they got Steven Okert for Nick Gordon.

Beyond that, if these trades are happening, I'd love to see an article with a blueprint/guess for what the roster actually rounds out to look like. Having Cody Lawyerson listed on the opening day roster is something that I can't see the Pohlad's even wanting.

[Major League Ready]

What if the Twins were “aggressive”.  We are seeing a lot of advocacy for putting the best team possible on the field in 2026.  What does that look like and what could we expect.  The Twins were 18-35 after the deadline which is a 55 win pace.  They could spend $60M in free agency and pick up another 6-7 wins.  The two most needed positions are 1B and SS.  Should we fill SS and hold Culpepper back.  $60M would get a very good 1B and SS but leave little left over to rebuild the BP.  Should we trade away top 10 type prospects and try to get it 70 wins 75 wins if everything goes great?

There has always been an understandable desire for being aggressive and getting final pieces to enhance our chances of bring a real contender.  This means increased spending and trading prospects for final pieces.  In other words, converting future assets to present assets.   The parallel when a team is in the position the Twins are in now is trading the remaining good players to acquire difference makers for the next run at contention.  

Houston tore down to the studs.  KC traded Grienke for Cane and Escobar.  I think you could make a good case KC does not make it the WS without those two players.  Cleveland has a long history of trading established players for prospects that contribute.  That's the norm in a rebuild.  So, is the best we can hope for to keep Ryan and Lopez?  Hope everything goes great and we win 75 games?  Is that the goal or should we take it on the chin in 2026 and take a shot at getting our own Cain & Escobar and others who can contribute to the next run for 7 years?  

Time to recognize this ship needs an extreme makeover.

[shimrod]

This is the most likely scenario, in my opinion. Trade everyone over the minimum and rebuild after the lockout. 

I would also predict the resulting 2026 Twins team will not have the worst record in the league. 

[matt]

The CBA requires revenue sharing recipients to spend more than 150% of their revenue sharing money on MLB payroll, so something this low seems unlikely.

[Whitey333]

It seems likely to me the teardown will continue this off season. .why not?  Team is pretty well demolished now.  I can't see them hanging on to a high priced Lopez when it's unlikely the team will be competitive.  It makes no sense but neither does the Twins organization.

[EGFTShaw]

1 hour ago, h2oface said:

Who are the quiet new limited partners that bailed out the Poland scum that allowed them to get financially bailed out from their supposed debt and tank this team? Why is it a secret?

Valid point.
And what vision did you sell to the limited partners to get them to invest.

Queue up "The Producers"

[EGFTShaw]

24 minutes ago, shimrod said:

This is the most likely scenario, in my opinion. Trade everyone over the minimum and rebuild after the lockout. 

I would also predict the resulting 2026 Twins team will not have the worst record in the league. 

Thank god for the Rockies and White Sox. ;)

[EGFTShaw]

29 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Time to recognize this ship needs an extreme makeover.

Titanic it? 

[USAFChief]

We just witnessed what "blowing it up" looks like.

Fugly. 

 

[srlarson]

28 minutes ago, shimrod said:

This is the most likely scenario, in my opinion. Trade everyone over the minimum and rebuild after the lockout. 

I would also predict the resulting 2026 Twins team will not have the worst record in the league. 

there are always the White Sox!!!  No matter what they do they will always suck!!!  

 

[EGFTShaw]

55 minutes ago, LeatherAntenna said:

Is this story trying to brace us for 120 losses next year?

Bomba Squad got the Twins the season HR record for MLB.

Next year it could be the Bombed Squad snatches the most losses record.  (Since we are picking in the lottery in 2026, will we get punted out of the lottery in 2027 after setting this record?  That would be the Twins normal luck)

[saviking]

Without what we get in return for the trades the article is pointless. 

[MesaTwinsFan]

That roster would have a hard time competing in the same league as th Bananas or the college world series

[terrydactyls]

38 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Time to recognize this ship needs an extreme makeover.

That's it!!  You've discovered the identity of the Masked Investors!  They are Ty Pennington and the Property Brothers.  Good job @Major League Ready.

[Craig Arko]

 

[Dman]

How many more young guys do they need?  For the outfield they have Martin establishing himself and they just traded for Roden. Not to mention they have Gonzalez, Rodriguez, and Jenkins who all will need chances to prove themselves with Jenkins and Rodriguez top 100 prospects. They still have Wallner how many more outfielder's do they need to trade for?

They have Keacshal at 2nd base now and Culpepper is another top 100 prospect who can play short likely by mid to late next year. While Lee hasn't lit the world on fire he is a former top 100 prospect who can play the infield. They have Lewis at third who is relatively young with Mendez and Houston likely on the way if not next year then the year after.  That doesn't even include whoever they get in this years draft. 

How many more young guys does this team need?  As it stands keeping all the arms that are Rule V eligible means the 40 man will have a ton of young arms to work with and there are more coming.  So are we gonna just throw prospects away to get more prospects?

If they just keep what they have and if the younger position players can improve this team can be a playoff team. Likely not a WS contender but a good team. Take one more piece out and it gets harder to get there.

I do get that next year is still young guys needing experience to start a new core especially on the hitting side and even somewhat on the pitching side.  You could go all in and make more trades but you need to get top of line prospects or difference making players otherwise just use what you have in the system already and take your comp pick when Pablo and Ryan leave.  There is a lot of youth on the way and they will need chances to prove themselves I don't see a great need for more trades unless very high quality deals (i.e. Overpays).

 

[jmlease1]

This level of extreme tear down would be incredibly stupid and greedy, guaranteeing that the Twins will not only not be competitive in 2026, but likely but uncompetitive until 2028 at the earliest. It's a shockingly terrible idea that would be highly destructive for baseball in MN, while fattening the already insanely wealthy Pohlad Clan's bottom line.

Therefore, it seems like an extremely likely possibility.

If there's a short-sighted, greedy, anti-fan pathway for the franchise to take, you're unlikely to lose betting on the Pohlads to take it.

Even if the Twins get very good returns on a further razing of the roster, they're unlikely to get players that will be ready to contribute in 2026, 2027 is going to get screwed up with a lockout (which will not help player development), so we're looking at 2028 as the earliest possible turnaround IMHO. 

Of course, the front office will get fired by then as the next PR move, so that'll make some people happy?

[The Great Hambino]

In my opinion, I don't see Buxton getting dealt in any scenario this offseason.  His comments post-trade deadline make me think if he wanted out, he'd have been out already.  It's possible that dealing Lopez and Ryan changes his mind, but I think Falvey tipped their future plans when he told Correa "this isn't what you signed up for" when getting his approval for a trade.  Surely Buxton is aware of that conversation and likely had similar conversations with Falvey as well.  Why wouldn't Correa have signed up for a quick return to contention in 2026?  Maybe I'm Rorschaching the situation a bit (aren't we all to a degree?) but I just don't see that happening.

While I'm much less sure about it, I also get the feeling that Lopez will be brought back.  Post-trade deadline, it seemed to me like they were really leaning into Pablo during broadcasts - making him the face of charity stuff, chronicling his interactions with fans in the ballpark, etc.  It felt like they were positioning him to be a big part of their marketing material in 2026.  Could they have just been trying to fill time and he happened to be available for that stuff due to injury?  Certainly.  But it was enough to make me think it's a little more likely than not that he's coming back.

Also, while I'm skeptical of MLB's desire and ability to "not allow" the Twins to run a low payroll given what they've allowed other teams to do, even I think there's a limit to that.  $50MM would be $17MM lower than Miami's last-place 2025 opening day payroll.  Retaining Pablo seems like the simplest way to keep a barely-acceptable payroll level.  And they could always still move him at the deadline if the conditions are right.

Just about everyone beyond Buxton and Pablo as getting moved in the article (I'm on the fence about whether they'd sell low on Lewis just because), on the other hand, I'd be surprised to see on the 2026 opening day roster.  Ryan gets them the best possible return in terms of value, Larnach has a bunch of cheaper replacements behind him and could fetch a low-level return (if Farmer on the way in and Gordon on the way out could get something in trade, I don't see why Larnach couldn't as well), and I don't think they’ll be against picking up a couple of Vasquez-type catchers to replace Jeffers

Keeping Buxton and Lopez would put the minimum payroll at closer to $85MM.  Still absurdly low, but well within what MLB has allowed other noncompetitive teams to operate at.

[The Great Hambino]

2 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I wish this would have been written out with what returns came back in all of these deals. It’s impossible for me to see a way that all of these players were traded and we didn’t receive anything back for them that makes the mlb roster. That’s almost impossible to do, right?

Arguably having Larnach still on the roster almost feels the most unrealistic here. I could be wrong. 

I agree that they'd almost certainly be getting players in return that would be on the 2026 opening day roster, but those players would more than likely be making at- or near-minimum salaries (swapping out pitchers on arbitration who don't fit the timeline for position players on arbitration who don't fit the timeline defeats the purpose of trading the pitchers).

So the names in the chart might be different, but wouldn't have much of an effect on the payroll number.  Swapping minimum salary for another minimum salary would be a wash.

In fact, if the returns net them a young quality shortstop, that could negate the need for an IKF-type and drive the payroll floor down even further

[S Bart]

WHY did you not include Gasper in this scenario!!!!!! 

 

[DJL44]

Based on this season, when the Twins claimed a $100M loss on a $140M payroll, limiting their payroll to $49M would mean they only "lose" $10M. Can you get it any lower so the poor Pohlads can make a buck off this franchise? If they can get payroll down to $30M, that debt would be paid off by 2075.