What Would a True "Blow It Up" Offseason Look Like for the Minnesota Twins?

[rdehring]

2 hours ago, Doctor Wu said:

Agreed. If they seriously consider a more radical rebuild, Larnach needs to be dealt also. 

Gotta agree, Doc.  All of the best prospects who are close are corner outfielders.  For that reason, I see Larnach as a definite trade with Wallner also a possibility.  Personally, I would be ok with both leaving.  That's assuming they get something reasonable back, most likely prospects at Hi-A or AA.

[rdehring]

19 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Based on this season, when the Twins claimed a $100M loss on a $140M payroll, limiting their payroll to $49M would mean they only "lose" $10M. Can you get it any lower so the poor Pohlads can make a buck off this franchise? If they can get payroll down to $30M, that debt would be paid off by 2075.

You have to take the interest on that debt into consideration, DJL.  Assuming it is actually $500M, the interest would be in the +$30M to <$50M range.  So its possible nearly half of the loss would be wiped out by retiring the debt, which allegedly will be done by bringing in the two partners.

[Major League Ready]

20 minutes ago, Dman said:

How many more young guys do they need?  For the outfield they have Martin establishing himself and they just traded for Roden. Not to mention they have Gonzalez, Rodriguez, and Jenkins who all will need chances to prove themselves with Jenkins and Rodriguez top 100 prospects. They still have Wallner how many more outfielder's do they need to trade for?

They have Keacshal at 2nd base now and Culpepper is another top 100 prospect who can play short likely by mid to late next year. While Lee hasn't lit the world on fire he is a former top 100 prospect who can play the infield. They have Lewis at third who is relatively young with Mendez and Houston likely on the way if not next year then the year after.  That doesn't even include whoever they get in this years draft. 

How many more young guys does this team need?  As it stands keeping all the arms that are Rule V eligible means the 40 man will have a ton of young arms to work with and there are more coming.  So are we gonna just throw prospects away to get more prospects?

If they just keep what they have and if the younger position players can improve this team can be a playoff team. Likely not a WS contender but a good team. Take one more piece out and it gets harder to get there.

I do get that next year is still young guys needing experience to start a new core especially on the hitting side and even somewhat on the pitching side.  You could go all in and make more trades but you need to get top of line prospects or difference making players otherwise just use what you have in the system already and take your comp pick when Pablo and Ryan leave.  There is a lot of youth on the way and they will need chances to prove themselves I don't see a great need for more trades unless very high quality deals (i.e. Overpays).

 

More 45 or even 50 grade prospects would not add great value.  They have lots of those prospects.  What they don't have are prospects that project to be impact players.  Jenkins is the only premium prospect they have and Keaschall looks like he could be an impact player.  Tait if he sticks at catcher.  Trading Harrison Bader does not get you premium prospects but trading Joe Ryan trade will.  There is no guarantee but that would be a fair projection.  Duran brought back a SP with the potential to be as good as Ryan and a position player with the potential to produce equivalent WAR to Ryan.  Of course, Ryan has much more trade value than Duran.  There is risk but there is also tremendous upside because these players are under control for 3X the number of years.    If you can get a Joe Ryan equivalent for 7 years you are basically giving up a modest chance of contention in 2027.   The benefit of trading Ryan is uncertain. However, the projection and the upside over 7 years is far greater than the likely benefit of keeping him if the goal is contending.  Cleveland and Tampa have made this type of trade for years.  Fans don't like it, but the results are very clear.  This type of trade has been a major contributor to the building of many playoff teams. 

I keep Pablo if he does not bring back an impact prospect.  His value is probably not there at the moment, but he would be traded at the deadline if the return becomes impactful.  Same with Jeffers.  I don't believe he brings back an impact player so he stays to lend stability to a young staff.  Really on the fence with Buxton if he would waive his NTC.

[Blyleven2011]

2 hours ago, LeatherAntenna said:

Is this story trying to brace us for 120 losses next year?

No this story is trying to brace you for the most losses in the history of MLB baseball  ...

At the deadline we fans expected the team to trade the expiring contracts of coloumbe , Castro  , Bader , France and paddack .... 

I also expected the twins to trade a couple of relievers , one of either Duran or Jax ,  Stewart was also an option to be traded  ....

But NOoooo , they tore our hearts out and traded the quality bullpen ...

Now , this off season i can see the twins ( even though falvey has said he would like to keep them ) , trade Lopez  , Ryan ( most likely request or demand a trade ) and if he is traded so is Lopez because we don't needed him on a rebuild  ...

If these 2 players get traded , I wouldn't blame Buxton one bit for opting out of his no trade clause to play for Atlanta Braves  ... 

Now with these 3 players gone  , Jeffers has value with a higher price tag in arbitration the twins probably would want to shed  and I can see them signing Vazquez for his defense and smarts for 3 to 5 million in salary , if that doesn't happen we have pereda and Cardenas as our 2 catchers ...

Now where they go , I have no possible idea , I do know that the teams Nelson suggested in these trades might not have the best talent in their system to get the right return  ( but falvey may think so because he's great at dumpster diving ) ...

If these pitchers and players are traded , please get some better quality prospects and major league ready players in return  ....

I don't have much faith in this being accomplished as they still haven't a plan in order as stated by falvey ...

who cares what the payroll is , just get some talented players that will play some better exciting baseball than what we have witnessed the last 5 years excluding 2023 as they made a playoff appearance and won a few games ...

Even the players the team sent to the AFL is kind of a joke , they practically sent players that are not even close to major league ready , I always thought the AFL was the last step before making the major league roster  , not with this organization  ....

 

[rdehring]

Perhaps the most important fact regarding this happening, Nick, is that there is a high likelihood that baseball will not be played in much of 2027, if at all.  So tearing this down and setting the team up for success in 2028 and beyond kind of makes sense.

As stated above I see Larnach as the most likely to be moved.  Agree with all your expectations, Nick, with the exception that Buxton just may stick with the team thru this mess.  Hopefully, the Twins will get some very good young talent back from these deals.  As for this year's selloff, contrary to a lot of the comments of late we won't know for another year or two how good the returns actually were.  Personally, I am hopeful.

[DJL44]

2 minutes ago, rdehring said:

You have to take the interest on that debt into consideration, DJL.  Assuming it is actually $500M, the interest would be in the $30M to $50M range.  So its possible nearly half of the loss would be wiped out by retiring the debt, which allegedly will be done by bringing in the two partners.

You think the Pohlads are charging themselves 10% interest on a loan? Possible, but that's basically money laundering. If they're paying $50M interest on that $500M debt they are claiming, and they lose money with a payroll above $30M, then they won't be able to make a profit with a roster full of players making the league minimum.

Poor, poor Pohlads - the only billionaire businessmen in major league baseball who don't know how to make money. Interesting how they lose all this money and yet nobody in charge of running the business gets fired. Even Dave St. Peter gets to show up to work and cash paychecks after being relieved of his job duties.

6 minutes ago, Blyleven2011 said:

I can see them signing Vazquez for his defense and smarts for 3 to 5 million in salary

That seems like a move incompetent people would make. Trade away all the cheap talent and throw real money away on a catcher nobody else wants. I could see that happening.

[Glorybound]

Well after losing a half a billion dollars on the Twins the Pohlads need a break. I think they sell off further. There is no way they plan to put a winning team on the field in 26.

[jmlease1]

16 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Based on this season, when the Twins claimed a $100M loss on a $140M payroll, limiting their payroll to $49M would mean they only "lose" $10M. Can you get it any lower so the poor Pohlads can make a buck off this franchise? If they can get payroll down to $30M, that debt would be paid off by 2075.

Not that I trust or believe the Pohlads on anything financial, but my recollection is that they leaked that they were set to lose $30M on the $142M payroll from 2025, not $100M. (I don't think anyone should believe a pro sports owner on financials without an audited financial statement in hand and an independent expert to explain it all to you, but I highly doubt even the poorly run Twins franchise could have lost $100M in 2025, even including the interest payments on the debt they loaded on (which would likely be in the $10-25M range, depending on what kind of rates they could negotiate)

[rdehring]

3 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

You think the Pohlads are charging themselves 10% interest on a loan? Possible, but that's basically money laundering. If they're paying $50M interest on that $500M debt they are claiming, and they lose money with a payroll above $30M, then they won't be able to make a profit with a roster full of players making the league minimum.

Poor, poor Pohlads - the only billionaire businessmen in major league baseball who don't know how to make money. Interesting how they lose all this money and yet nobody in charge of running the business gets fired. Even Dave St. Peter gets to show up to work and cash paychecks after being relieved of his job duties.

That seems like a move incompetent people would make. Trade away all the cheap talent and throw real money away on a catcher nobody else wants. I could see that happening.

Everyone keeps thinking the Pohlads are still in the banking business.  They haven't been for some time.  So yes, they are borrowing money from whatever banks they deal with.  We also don't know how said banks consider a baseball team as a credit risk.  Or the Pohlad's for that matter. 

With interest rates being very high for the past several years, yes, an interest rate approaching 10% could be possible.  But I showed a range, roughly 6% to 10% as none of us know that the actual rate is.  And paying 10% or above is not 'money laundering.'  I am very much aware of the rates one of the best restaurant companies in America is paying on their loans, and that's over 10%. 

And I am somewhat disappointed how you jumped on my comment, which was intended to point out that a good chunk of the loss would go away when/if the debt was paid off by the new investors, by not considering that I used a wide range of interest rates in my $30M to $50M guess.

 

[Linus]

Here is the problem: they can keep all their guys, sign a marginal free agent or two and try to build a bullpen on the fly. And win 78 games in 26 and watch the lockout in 27 at which point López, Ryan, Ober and Jeffers are all gone. Or you can trade them for players that, combined with current prospects, can open a legitimate window of contention in 28 and beyond. 
Is this the scenario I wanted? Nope. But they made their bed at the trade deadline (I assume knowingly). 

[mluebker]

If they do this, send them a bill for the consultation and check into the requirements for witness protection.

[GNess]

If the Twins tear it down completely as your scenario plays out - wow that would be really grim. That's a roster that would have almost no chance to even be semi-competitive.

[jmlease1]

I think the most likely scenario is that there will be more tear down in dealing Lopez and/or Ryan for more prospects, with some/all of that "savings" being allowed to be plowed back into the roster as they sell hopium to the fans in their usual tone-deaf way.

Maybe Buxton waives his no-trade to a team like Atlanta if they dump Lopez, Ryan, Jeffers, and Larnach...but I don't think they actually want to move Buxton. They probably think he sells tickets all by himself (and they might be right)

I also don't there's any real chance they move Lewis; they're unlikely to sell low, which is what this would be, and he's hardly expensive for where the ceiling is. Yes, he makes more than league minimum, but even the Cheap Pohlad will pay some players more than league minimum.

Not liking these scenarios much at all.

If the debt is paid off, there's really no reason this franchise can't support a payroll in the $125M range and turn a profit, which would allow them to keep the pitching and still invest $30M back into the payroll. If Lopez gets moved, that would open up $50M that could be invested, which would certainly allow them to add a bat at 1B/DH, a backup catcher/SS, and 2-3 veteran bullpen arms, which could make this a credible roster around guys like Buxton, Ryan, Keaschall, Jeffers, Ober, SWR, and Lewis...but would still need young players to step up again and some veterans (like Lewis) to improve/return to form/stay healthy.

[tony&rodney]

The key component here is whether other teams value specific Twins players combined with the front office competently identifying players from other teams. Joe Ryan is a pitcher that several teams should see as the guy needed to get their squads into the next round of the playoffs. Boston and Detroit come to mind. The return should be high and these teams should be willing to gamble as well. The benefit of keeping Ryan is familiarity more than anything. The worst case is injury. I don't see how the Twins can keep Joe Ryan and he is the pitcher I most enjoy. The team needs better talent.

Nick has envisioned a selloff but doesn't account for the returns and stays well away from wild speculation. These fan blogs are nothing more than speculative guesses at their best so why not throw out ideas. We are seeing more and more of these doomsday articles precisely because the selloff in July left the Twins as a struggling roster that is likely looking up at the White Sox. How can that change? Gleeman and Bonnes seem to think a $140-160M payroll is an answer. I would like a $180M payroll. I'm not sure where the Twins payroll will land but $80-110M seems like a number in line with past practices and current reality.

I do believe or maybe it is just hope for several strong trades to be completed. There will be many opportunities. Nick mentions Tampa Bay and Ryan Jeffers. Ok, I would like to see that trade return Brody Hopkins and/or Tre' Morgan. Perhaps the Twins need to add a Travis Adams or lower level guy from A ball. Nick doesn't think Ober has much value but maybe Arizona is beyond frustrated by Jordan Lawler, whose value has also sunk. There are bound to be several mutually beneficial trades that can be completed. 

The key is how other teams view the Twins players. I don't see rolling it back as an option.

[JBK]

Any Twins roster that includes Gasper is a sure lock to win 40 games and draw below 1M in attendance.  How he is still thought of as a catcher is beyond me.  He was on the roster for 70% of the season while hitting a robust .158 with a 37 OPS+.  What a sad operation we've got here.

[AKTwinsFan]

Hopefully with the CBA negotiations teams will have a minimum and maximum salary cap. We're well below the average salary, when we did have the average salary we made it past the wild card round and into the divisional. The league should have forced Joe to sell the team.

[Patzky]

2 hours ago, Craig Arko said:

 

Steve Stone and Jorge Piedra. Yes..

[Doctor Gast]

I've stated this before that the Twins are going down the same road as ROXs. They had a good team but they mismanaged their money & spent too much. They had no money to improve the team, a FO who had no idea how to make trades, and poor player evaluation & development. The players became disgruntled & they ended up giving up some of their core for nothing. They ended up with a terrible team with no way to improve. Sounds familiar?

I didn't trust Falvey to do the deadline sell-off. The poor player evaluation result of selling off valuable, proven assets was AAAA, redundant & undeveloped talent that won't be ready, or what condition that they'd become with the poor development. The glut of redundant players will create a 40-man crisis where we could lose viable MLB potential players because of Falvey's inability to trade these redundant players for players who could fill an important need. Falvey's continuation of the sell-off will magnify manifold times this crisis. 

With Falvey's incompetence, it appears that the Pohlads' goal is to set the MLB season's worst record, # of losing seasons & worst season attendance. Their goal should be to make money by economically put out a competitive team, not by continuing to sell off key players, making the team worse & players more disgruntled. The worse the team becomes more money they will lose, it's a vicious cycle. For the Pohlads to have a good team & make money, the 1st thing they needed to do was to fire Falvey, but the idiots promoted him. The Pohlads deserve to lose money, but not at the fans' expense.

 

[bunsen82]

The most I see in the offseason is trading away 1 of Pablo or Ryan.  With the most likely being Ryan due to his value.   The theory being you need at least 1 veteran to lead the starters and I don't think I would put Ober in that category.  You get salary relief and a moderate prospect with Pablo,  you get a massive return with Ryan.  I don't see the Red Sox being a good fit unless a 3rd team comes into play as they don't have any high end prospects that will add up to Ryan.  Tolle would be the best I would consider and he is a 1/3 of Ryan's.  We would be taking on 3-4 prospects and personally I think our system is prospect heavy.   I suppose you could get a veteran SP in one of the 2 deals to offset if you did trade both.  

Unless there is a massive talk with Buxton - Buxton will be remaining with the Twins.  Jeffers will remain as the veteran catcher with Pereda as his back up (he truly earned the role).  Lewis unless someone wants to overpay is also likely remaining a Twin hoping he bounces back.  Larnach is gone.  We have young outfielders who need an opportunity.  

I don't see doomsday occurring here.  I do feel the return back in the trades is much better than most are willing to acknowledge.  The last start for both Abel and Bradley showed their upside.  Tait performed well, Rojas struggled but is so young (22  AAA),  Mendez becomes a legit prospect if he unlocks just a little more power, and Jimenez went from a who is that to either our 2nd or 3rd best catching prospect in the minors.   Gallagher has some upside will have to wait and see.   

The goal was to tank for this year, which they did.  Throwing away beef stew for a throw away toy is what we did.  We wanted those 2-3-5 extra losses this year.  They achieved that goal.  We will see what the outcome is with the lottery.  You have an 80% chance at a top 5 pick in a year where we had the 4th worst record.  Odds are we end up with a better pick than our record placement.  If you can get another prospect on the level of Walker Jenkins it was worth it.  

I think I have a pretty good grasp on what they will do but it all comes down to the owners and its clear they told Falvey to tear it down at the trade deadline.  I do think the short term pain they were referring to was the end of the season.  Falvey will be incentivized to put a good roster out there next year for job security.  I don't see an additional tank year.  

My personal gut feel is the pitching in the minors is going to shine next year.  You are going to have a lot of talent up and down the rosters.   Healthy Soto who was pitching well before he was injured, Dasan Hill, Priellip who did well in his first full season,  Rojas (how will he improve), Lewis, CJ Culpepper and and Jones - Bohorquez, Gallagher, Horn - then the pitchers drafted last year - Quick, Ellwanger, Reitz and Barr, let along the mid to late round pitchers that we seem to hit on every year.   AAA will most likely have 2 of the following as well - Festa, SWR, Matthews, Bradley and Abel.   

1 out of the box idea would be trading SWR.  I think he performed very well this year. I think you would have some teams willing to give a decent return for #4 starter to supplement the team or a prospect.   I do think we have too many Starting pitchers going into next year.   

Falvey needs to show his new drafting philosophy since 2021 of drafting players with better hit tools (Lee, Jenkins, Keaschall, Culpepper, Houston) and acquiring in trades (Gonzalez and Mendez).  These players need to start succeeding otherwise I agree with most here that his tenure here will be short lived.   Next year is his make or break year.   

[David Maro]

As the team stands with no manager and the coaching staff unknown the FO will be taken advantage of. With 5 other teams looking for a manager that are far better than this organization 26 looks bleak. We know one thing for sure ticket prices will be higher as well as concessions.

Weather or not Lopez is traded or not,one thing is for sure Ryan will be traded. You can't have unhappy players in the dugout. He is in the prime of his career and wants to win not wasting another year with a losing organization.

[FlyingFinn]

If you are trading this many guys away, why stop there! Put Cardenas in for Vazquez. Culpepper for Falefa. Rodriguez for Larnach. That's down another $13M or so. Then, sign Jenkins, Rodriguez and Culpepper (and maybe others) to 8 year contracts (or however many is needed) and gamble that they will be great, buying out some of their free agent years.

[TopGunn#22]

I’ll also agree that some kind of suggestion as to what was acquired with all those trades was obviously needed in the article.  Just a guess on my part:  from Boston for Ryan:  OF Wilyer Aubreu, LH SP Payton Tolle and 1B Tristan Casas, recovering from his knee injury.  From Tampa Bay for Jeffers, 1B Yandy Diaz.  This is close to a net negative in salary but fills the need for a solid RH bat to play 1B/DH with Casas in the mix.  I don’t have a handle on who we would get from the Mets, maybe 3B Mark Vientos as major league talent or unknown to me minor league talent.  I do whatever it takes to get either young catcher from the White Sox.  Wallner’s BBTV is currently greater than either of them.  Let the White Sox take advantage of the tremendous OPS that Wallner could bring to their lineup.  So if we added the players I’ve mentioned, we would have Quero catching, a tandem of Diaz and Casas at 1B/DH and Wilyer Abreu in RF (Gold Glove winner-tremendous upgrade from Wallner).  Finally, you’ve added Mark Vientos and his power hitting at 3B.  He replaces Lewis if he’s traded to the Angels for…whatever.  The trade of Ryan gets the Twins the foundation for the future and the other trades fill in around that.  

[Finlander]

Maybe ticket and concession prices should be sliding proportionally with the decrease in player payroll and talent level on the field.

But, that not being the case, I'd rather spend a lot less to watch competitive games in St Paul than see the Twins become badly battered sparring partners for major league teams.

[SteveLV]

I think they deal Ryan.

They listen on Lopez.

Buxton stays unless he has a change of heart.

Lewis unlikely to be dealt unless someone overvalues him.

Jeffers only if someone blows them away and they have someone to replace him at C.  I am pretty sure you need a C to field a team.

Larnach needs to go to make room.

If they are getting a SS back, they should bundle Lee to add value to the return. His ceiling now appears to be average SS at best. Hope I am wrong.

 

To be honest, it would be more interesting to follow the Twins next season if they did tear it down and play the young players than some half-hearted band-aid patchwork mess like last season.  At least we could have some hope for the future.  

Imagine something like:  

Jenkins CF

Rodriguez RF

Martin LF

Gonzalez DH

Eldridge (San Fran) 1B

Keaschall 2B

Culpepper SS

Lewis 3B

Ford (Sea) C

Mathews, Woods-Richardson, Preilipp, Abel, Bradley, Rojas, Laweryson, Sands, Festa, Adams, Funderburk, Ohl, and Raya as pitching staff.

That would be fun and interesting, no? 

[RpR]

20 minutes ago, SteveLV said:

Imagine something like:  

Jenkins CF

Rodriguez RF

Martin LF

Gonzalez DH

Eldridge (San Fran) 1B

Keaschall 2B

Culpepper SS

Lewis 3B

Ford (Sea) C

Mathews, Woods-Richardson, Preilipp, Abel, Bradley, Rojas, Laweryson, Sands, Festa, Adams, Funderburk, Ohl, and Raya as pitching staff.

That would be fun and interesting, no? 

OH MY -- That would be a AAA team that would win fewer games than the Saints did for Gardenhire.

[Mike Sixel]

3 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

This level of extreme tear down would be incredibly stupid and greedy, guaranteeing that the Twins will not only not be competitive in 2026, but likely but uncompetitive until 2028 at the earliest. It's a shockingly terrible idea that would be highly destructive for baseball in MN, while fattening the already insanely wealthy Pohlad Clan's bottom line.

Therefore, it seems like an extremely likely possibility.

If there's a short-sighted, greedy, anti-fan pathway for the franchise to take, you're unlikely to lose betting on the Pohlads to take it.

Even if the Twins get very good returns on a further razing of the roster, they're unlikely to get players that will be ready to contribute in 2026, 2027 is going to get screwed up with a lockout (which will not help player development), so we're looking at 2028 as the earliest possible turnaround IMHO. 

Of course, the front office will get fired by then as the next PR move, so that'll make some people happy?

How does trading guys that won't be here in 27 or 28 make them not competitive in 28? If anything, it makes it more likely they are, as they get guys back.

[Mike Sixel]

32 minutes ago, SteveLV said:

I think they deal Ryan.

They listen on Lopez.

Buxton stays unless he has a change of heart.

Lewis unlikely to be dealt unless someone overvalues him.

Jeffers only if someone blows them away and they have someone to replace him at C.  I am pretty sure you need a C to field a team.

Larnach needs to go to make room.

If they are getting a SS back, they should bundle Lee to add value to the return. His ceiling now appears to be average SS at best. Hope I am wrong.

 

To be honest, it would be more interesting to follow the Twins next season if they did tear it down and play the young players than some half-hearted band-aid patchwork mess like last season.  At least we could have some hope for the future.  

Imagine something like:  

Jenkins CF

Rodriguez RF

Martin LF

Gonzalez DH

Eldridge (San Fran) 1B

Keaschall 2B

Culpepper SS

Lewis 3B

Ford (Sea) C

Mathews, Woods-Richardson, Preilipp, Abel, Bradley, Rojas, Laweryson, Sands, Festa, Adams, Funderburk, Ohl, and Raya as pitching staff.

That would be fun and interesting, no? 

I think this is accurate, in what will happen. I don't see Nick's plan as most likely, especially keeping Larnach in this scenario. 

[Doctor Gast]

I think it's crazy, Nick, in the roster you put together. The highest-paid player on the Twins' payroll by far is Correa- $11M, & he doesn't even play for them. 

[Nashvilletwin]

Ryan, Lopez, Buxton and Jeffers are all likely gone by next summer’s trade deadline at the latest since none of them project to be on the post-lockout ‘28 roster.  The one caveat is a new manager might be able to convince ownership and Ryan to have Ryan sign an extension.  There is no reason Ryan can’t be that veteran #1 or 2 starter in ‘28 anchoring a quality young rotation. 

The Twins should keep Lewis to see what a new manager/coaching staff can do to resurrect his talent.  If Rocco had stayed, then Lewis should’ve been moved (heck, he might’ve begged to be traded).

 

[Doctor Gast]

If Lopez & Buxton want to stay, it'd be super crazy to try to force them to leave. Young players need that mentorship.