Jorge Polanco's Late-Season Surge Puts Twins in a Tight Spot

[Ted Schwerzler]

Entering the year it seemed somewhat unlikely that Jorge Polanco would be back for the Minnesota Twins in 2024. Casting aside production, Polanco’s upcoming option vested with 550 plate appearances. That was going to be a difficult threshold to hit, but now considering production, does a reunion tour make sense?

 

Image courtesy of © Jordan Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Minnesota has employed Jorge Polanco for the entirety of his professional career. Signed as an international free agent out of the Dominican Republic, Polanco debuted for the Ron Gardenhire Twins at 20. He played for Paul Molitor and is now coached by Rocco Baldelli. As an elder statesman of the franchise at 30, he has only known Minnesota.

Coming into the year, it seemed unlikely that Polanco would reach the necessary 550 plate appearances for his 2024 option to vest. Injuries allowed him to play just 104 games last year, and he has only surpassed 550 plate appearances twice previously in nine major league seasons. Having missed time again this season and trending towards something like 85 games played, Polanco and the Twins will have a decision to make.

Minnesota gave Polanco a $10.5 million vesting option when he was extended before the 2019 season. Polanco and Max Kepler were signed to long-term deals simultaneously, and they are now reaching the option years of those contracts. If the Twins were to cast Polanco aside, he would receive a $1 million buyout.

Through 39 games, Polanco had bottomed out with a .680 OPS. He then missed most of June and almost all of July. Returning after the All-Star Break, on the 28th of July, he has played in 38 games for the Twins since. Across that stretch, he owns a .269/.380/.470 slash line with six doubles and seven home runs. In his last 25 games, Polanco has posted a .954 OPS and has been among the hottest hitters in Minnesota’s lineup.

Polanco will represent a veteran presence at second base alongside rookie Edouard Julien as the Twins trend toward the postseason. The emergence of the Canadian is among the top reasons the Twins may opt against forking out $10.5 million at the same position next season, but Polanco has at least made it a conversation.

Derek Falvey and Thad Levine not only have to construct a roster for 2024 with financial implications in mind, but they also have many top prospects pushing for big-league playing time. 

Royce Lewis has already joined Julien on the dirt for the Twins, and while he could move to a new position, Brooks Lee is also at the doorstep. Austin Martin isn’t the same infield prospect he was when Minnesota acquired him in exchange for Jose Berrios, but he’s another player that should factor in a year from now.

Keeping Polanco may be less about the dollars and more about where his playing time will come. On top of that, the Twins will need to have some level of belief that he will be healthy enough to be a contributor next season. Playing less than 100 games and at 31-years-old, footing a $10.5 million bill for Polanco could be tough to swallow. At 1.4 fWAR, Fangraphs values his production as worth $10.8 million, but an organization surely would like to see a surplus from a player rather than a break-even point.

What the Twins do with the long-tenured infielder for 2024 remains to be seen, and much of that could still be decided by how he maintains down the stretch and into the postseason. Still, considering the slow start and injuries this year, it’s notable that Polanco has made this a conversation. Much like Kepler, the player he signed alongside, turning a future into a discussion rather than an expected conclusion is something to be proud of.

The Twins will need Polanco to continue producing like a veteran leader in the postseason, and if he does, there could be a greater reward for him yet.

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[Cory Engelhardt]

100% they pick up the option. No doubt in my mind. And frankly I think he is the best option for 2b (over Julien at least) up until a real decision has to be made with Brooks Lee.

But Polanco can play, he is a really solid hitter and his defense is good. Worry a bit about his knees, but when he is right, he is really good. 

 

[Linus]

If he’s healthy at the end of the season you 100% bring him back. He is the best option at second and it ain’t even close. 

[Jeff D.]

I have felt Polanco is one of the best players the Twins have had in the last 10 years, even with the injuries. He is one of the best clutch hitters we have had. Switch-hitting with power. A low-key player that is involved in only being focused on the game. While not one of the best defensive players, he has provided flexibility for the team and only enhances the team and its options.

That said, the Twins now have a bunch of roadblocks because of great young players that also provide flexibility. I believe the time is right for seeing the end of the Polanco and Kepler duo on the team. Their next teams will be lucky to have them, but the Twins need to play the young guys and move on down the road. I will be sad to see Polanco gone if that happens.

The two problems that still drive me nuts are the very poor relief pitching this year particularly and the dugout leader, Mr. Baldelli. We will not win much or go deep into any playoff scenario with both left unaddressed.

Go Twins...................Twins Geezer......out!

[SockNet]

Not sure how vesting and options work but I say pick up the $10.5 M and look to trade this off season. I'd think his value will be up if he finishes the year on a healthy note. W/ Correa locked up and a lot of talented young infileders either in the bigs or on the doorstep, it feels a solid move.

Dude's a pro hitter. I'd miss him for sure.

 

 

[Craig Arko]

In many ways, this hinges on the future of Buxton. What happens with the DH spot in 2024 affects a number of players.

[Road trip]

"Tight spot"?  File Polanco under "Good problem to have...". 

[Dman]

I go back and forth on whether to keep him or trade him, but I have the team picking up his option no matter what.  When healthy I don't think we have a better 2nd baseman on the team.  Still he is getting older and his trade value is likely the highest it will be this off season.  The Twins have a glut of utility infield type players even beyond Lee so they can easily backfill if they move on.  However, the team is in compete now mode so making room for him probably makes more sense than trading him, Unless of course there is an offer for pitching help that is too good to pass up.

[chinmusic]

Time will tell, but the lineup sure isn't the same without him.

[tony&rodney]

Unless Polanco suffers an unfortunate injury at some point from now until the end of the Twins season, there is no way that the team passes on the option. There are many variables, but Jorge as the most valuable Twin for 2024 and 2025 is still real. Health is the ticket. Will Polanco (or any player really) be fully healthy the remainder of this year and then through next season?

[IndianaTwin]

Not mentioned is one of the main reasons I see to keep him, and that is that he also has a very affordable option for 2025. That both increases his potential value for the Twins and his potential value as a trade chip. 

[FlyingFinn]

37 minutes ago, SockNet said:

I say pick up the $10.5 M and look to trade this off season. I'd think his value will be up if he finishes the year on a healthy note. W/ Correa locked up and a lot of talented young infileders either in the bigs or on the doorstep, it feels a solid move.

Dude's a pro hitter. I'd miss him for sure.

Agreed. You trade him because he has too many miles on his legs (injuries don't go away in your 30's, they normally increase) and Brooks Lee is coming to be the Rookie of the Year in 2024.

[Johnny Ringo]

With all respect, the only consideration is whether Jorge is worth $9.5 million next year.  (The option less the buy-out.) 

Without a doubt, the answer is yes. This can viewed independently of whoever else is on the roster.  Polanco or the others can be dealt. If nothing else, Jorge can be traded at no expense for prospects. I know we don't like those. :)  

I would ask Julien to do nothing over the winter but take grounders and see what you have in the spring. Maybe Lee will step into the job.  But I certainly would have Polanco in my back pocket regardless.  

[ValleySpringsFan]

We take Polanco's excellence for granted because he's been great for so long. Think of the large contracts dropped on players in recent years (looking at you, Donaldson and Gallo) who vastly underperformed. Even when he's gotten hurt, Polanco recovers and excels. Picking up his option - heck, sign him to a new 3 year deal - isn't be a hard decision.

[TopGunn#22]

This is a GREAT problem to have.  What team couldn't use a switch hitting infielder capable of playing 2B, 3B, and maybe even a little 1B and SS?  Polanco is VERY affordable this year and next.  Assuming he stays healthy and is solid if not pretty good in the playoffs?  Then his value rises to close to what it was 2 years ago.  That's a value that could be part of a package to bring back a very good SP or a full time CF.

Even with Lewis, Julien, Farmer and Castro (not to mention Lee knocking on the door and Nick Gordon) the Twins have options and options give you LEVERAGE.  We have a surplus of LH hitting OF and capable IF to offer in a trade.  We might even consider dealing Vasquez to a catching needy team if we believe Jeffers has turned a corner (I think he has).  

Polanco in the Twins lineup is a comforting thought for next season.  But with holes to fill in CF, the rotation and bullpen the Twins lineup/roster for 2024 is very much up in the air.  Polanco will either be a key part of that next year, or a trade chip to deal to fill some of the gaping holes in next year's roster.  

[Karbo]

He is still one of the best and most reliable hitters in the lineup. Though not a gold glove candidate he isn't a butcher either. 10.5 is a bargain.

[Trov]

I have always like Polanco, but based on his age, and our younger ready to go prospects it is a tough decision.  Personally, I think they pick him up.  They shop him around during offseason, if nothing comes from that, we see what he has and what the prospects are doing.  If the prospects struggle we run with Polanco, if they force the hand, we use Polanco as more of bench guy. 

I do not think we can count on Polanco for a full season at this point in his career.  However, when he is hot, he can carry a team being a switch hitter with enough power from both sides to be a threat.  He is generally a tough out and puts together long at bats.  I still like him, and would say for 9.5 really, being they have to pay 1 mil to not keep him, he is worth holding onto as someone that can play in short spurts very well. 

[spanman2]

1 hour ago, Craig Arko said:

In many ways, this hinges on the future of Buxton. What happens with the DH spot in 2024 affects a number of players.

Well said...excellent point!

[minman1982]

Would we rather have the Twins in a spot where they have no choice but to pick up Polanco's option because there is nothing else on the roster? This is a great problem to have. 

If I were in their shoes, I would see if there is a trade candidate available. Does someone want a couple of years of Polanco at a fairly reasonable price for a few prospects? While I believe Polanco is currently the best option at 2B, this would give other guys a chance to prove themselves at that position.

Would Polanco be willing to DH? Maybe this is a place they could put him to give other guys time at 2B. Buxton is never going to be healthy for the whole season so there are a lot of DH plate appearances available. 

[TwinsDr2021]

To me it will come down to what the Twins think about LF. If they plan on bringing in a LF, then they can trade Polanco or not pick up his option and start Lee at second, AK at first, Julien and others at DH. . If their plan is Wallner or Larnach in LF, then I think they have to keep Polanco don't think you can go into a season with an unknown in LF, 2B (Lee or Julien), 1B (AK) and DH (Julien).

[DJL44]

I was not in favor of picking up the option until Polanco volunteered to be the utility guy when Lewis was out to get playing time for Julien. That showed leadership. If he's willing to fill in at whatever position is open he could be quite useful.

Polanco can take the veteran utility guy role that Solano had this year. They need to add Severino and Martin to the 40 man roster and there won't be enough room for both Solano and Polanco with those two added. That assumes they want to keep Farmer (the best defender of the utility guys). There might not be enough room for Nick Gordon even if they let Solano go.

[Woof Bronzer]

I think it's time to let the kids take over.  Polanco has been good for the Twins, but he's constantly hurt which creates roster management challenges and he shouldn't be holding back Lee or other young guns.  

With the Buxton and Correa albatross contracts, the Twins need to max out on young, cheap talent.  From a competitive standpoint they can afford to do this (at least until the Central is officially reclassified as a AAA division :).  And as we have seen this year, the young guys are carrying the team anyway.  

Time to close the door on the Polanco/Buxton/Kepler/etc era - promising group, zero playoff wins - and usher in a new era of Twins ball.  

[tony&rodney]

The options for Jorge Polanco are a bargain unless he is suddenly beset by injuries that reduce his availability to much less than it has been this year. On one hand you have a 10 year average that is good and easily worth his contract. On the other hand Polanco could have a resurgence of health and production to near 2021 levels. In either case, Jorge is valuable.

I'm not too sure how much trade value Polanco has in terms of bringing back a player that makes a difference. The Twins do not need to trade a player of Polanco's talents for a lower tier prospect because the team is focused on winning. If the team were to totally tank, as it did last season, a trade would make sense.

The larger recurring question relates to how other teams view various players within the Twins system and how willing a team would be to part ways with a talented player in order to ostensibly improve their own team. This was the crux of the Marlins-Twins trade last offseason; a trade that benefitted both teams. I'm not sure Polanco works in that scenario, but others may.

[Battle ur tail off]

This is a no brainer if he is healthy and a steal for a 1-year deal.

Here is what happens way too much around here IMO, people pencil these rookies into phenomenal

years/careers because of 2 month hot streaks. Julien is a good hitter no doubt, but there will come a time he will struggle(he kind of is right now even).

Polanco if healthy is a known quantity at the plate and the best 2B we have on the roster. Worse case is he gets hurt, and we have depth to cover for him. 

If the Twins don't pick up the (affordable) option on a healthy Polanco, I would argue it is a fireable offense. 

 

PS Even with an up and down a career as he has had, this line of thinking should be the same with Kepler. Bring them back if healthy, it's a no brainer.

[Battle ur tail off]

34 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

I think it's time to let the kids take over.  Polanco has been good for the Twins, but he's constantly hurt which creates roster management challenges and he shouldn't be holding back Lee or other young guns.  

With the Buxton and Correa albatross contracts, the Twins need to max out on young, cheap talent.  From a competitive standpoint they can afford to do this (at least until the Central is officially reclassified as a AAA division :).  And as we have seen this year, the young guys are carrying the team anyway.  

Time to close the door on the Polanco/Buxton/Kepler/etc era - promising group, zero playoff wins - and usher in a new era of Twins ball.  

The money is already guaranteed to Correa and Buxton, so they will be here. Polanco and Kepler's backups, cost next to nothing. You don't have to increase payroll very much at all to keep them around for another year. Unless you want to use their money to go after hammer bullpen guys or right handed bats, then I don't think you are stealing anything away from the young guys by bringing these 2 back, with injuries, slumps, etc, there will be plenty of ABs to go around. 

[Woof Bronzer]

15 minutes ago, Battle ur tail off said:

The money is already guaranteed to Correa and Buxton, so they will be here. 

Right, that's what I'm saying, it's $40mil ($45m?) in largely sunk costs so the Twins will need to work around that.  $50m including the $10m/yr they're paying Vasquez to be a backup catcher.  $10m for Polanco in a vacuum isn't unreasonable but when you basically have $100m to spend on 23 or so guys to fill out the roster, that money can be better spent elsewhere in my opinion (which I acknowledge isn't a popular one.)

[Rosterman]

Where Buxton plays (and if) remains the elephant in the room. Without Buxton in enter, the Twins need a centerfielder, for at least anotehr season.

At one point, letting Polanco and Kepler walk seemed to be the norm for the end of the season. Both fought injuries and showed little trade interest. But now that both are back, their trade stock has increased. They can remain a stopgap going into spring training, or perhaps be packaged before that to a team in need, along with a prospect or two, for a piece the Twins may need.

What are the Twins real needs going into the off-season? Probably possibly another mainline starting arm. Better to trade than play the free agent market? Of course, I do expect the Twins will make a qualifying offer to Gray. They might try and resign Maeda (let's wait a little, please) and maybe even Mahle (not a factor for 2024).

The Twins could also seek out a top flight bullpen arm or two in trade.

I'm seeing the Twins fielding the following 12 come next season: Jeffers/Vasquez, Kirilloff/Polanco/Correa/Lewis, Kepler/Buxton/Wallner. The bench will include Castro, Julien, Farmer. The Twins still have Celestino, Larnach, Miranda, Gordon on the 40-man. And will probably add Camargo, Martin, Severino and have to think about folks like WIlliams, Prato, Bechtold, Heilman, Keirsey. The only pitcher under consideration remains Enlow.

You can argue the need for another right-handed bat and no need for three (or four) extra infield guys. But the Twins have names to play with.

But ia all boils down to Buxton, and beyond. Where does Buxton play. Also, Correa. Does he move rom shortstop sooner rather than later (to make way for, say, Lee). And where does that throw a musical chair rotation of infielders.

Kepler and Polanco both now are worth the $10-or-so million, and might actually be worth a look by other teams, who might even think of extending them...something the Twins should probably avoid.

[Jham]

Here's how I rank the infield currently:

Correa

Lewis

Polanco

Farmer

Kiriloff

Brooks Lee

Solano

Miranda

Gordon

Wallner

Julien

Larnach

Martin

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gallo

 

Big disappoints are Larnach and Miranda. Correa is reminding me of the Mauer contract already.... I think we need Polanco, honestly. The young guys are interchangeable and not sure to be better than Farmer, Gordon or Solano.

[FlyingFinn]

8 minutes ago, Jham said:

Big disappoints are Larnach and Miranda.

Larnach isn't an infielder by the way. And neither is Wallner.

[Brandon]

Of course you keep Polanco.  This isn’t a hard decision.  If you can trade him for a number 3 type starter with a few seasons of control then of course move on but Polanco can be the player who moves around the Diamond and we will be glad he is here if someone gets hurt.
There is no bad 1 year contracts.  He costa 1/15 of the budget.  I don’t think we have too many arbitration raises to worry about.  If we do then we can trade Farmer whose bat is not near as good and will cost almost as much.  
We should keep Solano if we can give him many days at DH, something like 60-90 games.  Polanco should only need to DH 20-30 games.  Julien will need the same 20-30.  10 for Killeroff, 5-10 for Correa, and 5-10 for Lewis.  Others should get a few games in there and I hope to see Miranda again when his shoulder is healed and he gets his swing back.  
At the rate we are going we will be opposing a second baseman we developed every other series soon…..Steer, Polanco, Probably Austin Martin, Severino, Tanner Schoebal, Luke Keaschall…..

 I almost forgot to mention the total HR count from the Twins 2009 international class (Sano, Kepler and Polanco). Their total is currently in the low 420’s but it would be nice to see Kepler and Polanco get more of their HRs here to see that number cross 500 or even 600 before moving on to other teams.