Should Derek Falvey Be Trusted to Make Trade Decisions on Griffin Jax, Jhoan Duran, and Joe Ryan?

[Matthew Taylor]

Image courtesy of © Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

With the 2025 trade deadline approaching, the Minnesota Twins have made it clear that they are open for business. The assumption has been that the team would be moving impending free agents, but reports have surfaced that the front office is also listening on players with team control beyond this season—names like Joe Ryan, Griffin Jax, and Jhoan Duran. That naturally leads to questions. First, should the Twins be looking to trade players who (despite the current odds) could still help push for a playoff spot this year, and certainly contend next year? But even if the answer to that question is yes—if now is the best time to move those players at peak value—the follow-up is just as important: is Derek Falvey the right person to be making those decisions?

There are two main reasons why that question matters. First, Falvey’s long-term status in Minnesota is uncertain. With the sale of the team still pending, it’s entirely plausible that new ownership will want to install their own front office. That possibility alone raises real concerns about letting a potentially lame-duck executive make trades with long-term consequences. And second, even without the ownership factor, it’s not obvious that Falvey has earned the right to continue leading baseball operations. If this year goes the way it appears to be going, the Twins will have missed the playoffs four of the last five seasons, and the roster (while not without talent) doesn’t look like the product of a visionary baseball mind. The results simply haven’t been there.

There’s a natural misalignment of incentives when someone with an uncertain future is asked to make decisions that will affect the franchise for years to come. Even with the best intentions, it’s human nature to act in ways that protect your own position. That might mean targeting players who are closer to the majors over ones with more upside but more risk. It could mean making trades that look good in the short term, but don’t truly serve the long game. It’s not necessarily sabotage, but it’s not necessarily stewardship, either. You have to ask yourself if you’d rather let the next front office make those decisions—one that will be living with them—rather than someone who might not be around to see how they play out. Ryan, Jax, and Duran will all still have significant trade value in the offseason, or even at next season’s deadline.

There’s also the matter of whether Falvey is equipped to make these decisions, regardless of his job status. During his time with the Twins, he’s made two major selling trades. The first, acquiring Joe Ryan for Nelson Cruz, was a clear win. The second, trading José Berríos for Austin Martin and Simeon Woods Richardson, is more complicated. Woods Richardson has turned things around lately, but the deal was centered on Martin, who has either been a scouting miss or a development failure. Beyond that, the record isn’t exactly inspiring. The draft has been inconsistent, acquisitions have been middling, and the team stuck with an underwhelming core too long. On the development front, names like Jose Miranda, Edouard Julien, Trevor Larnach, Matt Wallner, and Austin Martin all flashed potential but haven’t reached anything close to consistency. That’s not just bad luck; it reflects poorly on the infrastructure. So if the front office has shown it can’t consistently evaluate or develop talent, do you trust it to execute a complex, high-leverage trade?

Of course, there’s an opportunity cost in doing nothing. The trade deadline is when contenders pay the highest prices. If you’re going to trade Ryan, Jax, or Duran, now is when you’re likely to get the biggest return. Waiting until the offseason may mean settling for less. But you also have to ask whether the return Falvey would get—while potentially greater on the surface—would actually deliver long-term value, or whether a new front office might do more with a little less. Sometimes it’s not just about the pieces you get, but how you build around them.

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So what do you think? Should Derek Falvey be the one calling the shots on trades involving Jhoan Duran, Joe Ryan, and Griffin Jax? Or would you rather wait for a new front office to make those decisions, even if it means taking a little less in return? Leave a comment and start the conversation!

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[Maybebaby]

DO NOT TRADE RYAN UNDER ANY  CIRCUMSTANCES!

[Whitey333]

Excellent well thought out article.  Im not a fan of Falvey.  I think for all the reasons you listed, he and Baldelli have dragged the franchise down not up.  Im not sure how you skirt around Falvey making these decisions though.  IMO Falvey can't be totally trusted to make these decisions.  But here we go.  Best thing a new owner could do is replace the front office.  Yes this includes both Falvey and Baldelli.

[twinfan]

Do we have a choice? I agree not to trade Ryan and if you need to, trade either Duran or Jax but not both.

[In My La Z boy]

3 minutes ago, Maybebaby said:

DO NOT TRADE RYAN UNDER ANY  CIRCUMSTANCES!

Amen! No prospect and no amount of prospects can equal a stud #1 starter under team control for years. Prospects may or may not pan out. Joe has panned out spectacularly and he's on his way. Get Pablo and Ober back, w/Zebby looking awesome last night, I'm saying we have a chance. I am also not in favor of blowing up the bullpen for prospects. 

[Hrbeks Divot]

Sell the expiring contracts and leave it there. Fill those spots internally and see how the young guys fare the rest of the season. Leave the pitchers alone and see how the ownership saga plays out. The next owner and next FO should be given the opportunity to build the team how they want with all the best assets at their disposal.

[CRF]

I vote no. Not that it's going to make any difference at all.🤪

[David Maro]

Its a poorly run franchise who has already made the mistake of telling Rocco he's back next year. Why would anyone trust Falvey to make a good decision on trading anyone. The season is going to be determined by the middle of August with all the division game starting Friday.

[thelanges5]

Short answer is no.

Slightly longer answer is that that the new owner should decide on the FO. Once that decision is made that FO can make decisions on the controllable players. 

Im not sure the team control on the relievers makes them more valuable to another team. We could still trade them in the off season or next year’s trade deadline. 
 

 

[jmlease1]

Dealing Ryan would be franchise malpractice and a signal of surrender not just for this season but for 2026 and possibly 2027 as well. There's little chance even a supposed "godfather" deal for Ryan would actually pan out that quickly, and frankly I haven't seen even prosed deals from non-Twins Daily sources that wouldn't be far better for the team acquiring Ryan than for the Twins.

If they want to make a deal with Jax or Duran, while I wouldn't be thrilled I'd be more forgiving if they got a huge offer at the deadline. It's just easier to develop relievers than frontline starters.

But at the end of the day, there's no choice but to "trust" Falvey to make the decisions on this because he's the guy in charge of baseball operations. Who else is there? (and not doing anything is a choice too, probably a bad one) Ownership is stuck in the mud, which makes it hard to make bigger decisions on whether or not to tear down this core and go into a rebuild or try and redesign and reset more on the fly. Sell the team, please!

[Cory Engelhardt]

We certain he’s lame duck? I’m not at all certain of that 

[tfbw]

I question the premise here.  It is in the interest of all in the organization, present and future, that the best deals be made. Always.  

[Lasorda_This_Out]

Unfortunately (or not?) Derek Falvey is the President of Baseball Operations for the Minnesota Twins. Until a new ownership group comes on board or a change in the FO, not much we can do....

No trades on Ryan, Duran or Jax....The rest? Fair game.....

[Coach Wheels]

Without even reading the article, NO, he should sit on his hands

[DJL44]

What you're really getting at is whether the new owner should be able to decide that they want to try to win in 2026 and 2027. I think that is why the Twins are asking such a high price for Duran and Jax. They want a trade that any GM would make under any circumstances.

[jorgenswest]

If I have mistrust it is in the ownership and would prefer that they hold onto these assets and let the next owners decide how to utilize them.

As for the Berrios trade they did get two well respected prospects.  Martin has not fulfilled his future value of average regular. Woods Richardson may fulfilled that future value of #4 starter.

That wasn’t the blockbuster of the deadline. It was the Dodgers sending their top two prospects and two others for Trea Turner and Max Scherzer. Josiah Gray and Keibert Ruiz were supposed to be the key to the Nationals future as a top starter and everyday catcher, Ruiz has been their primary catcher but has put up a below replacement level negative fWAR in each of the last three seasons. They keep playing him because the investment was huge in the 8 year contract they gave him. Josiah Gray started for them in 2022 and 2023 with FIPS of 5.86 and 4.93. Early in the 2024 season he left with Tommy John surgery. He may be able to throw at the end of this season. The other two did not make it to the majors and have been released by the Nationals. Ruiz is 27. He could turn it around much like some of the similarly aged Twins in AAA that have shown flashes. Gray may still turn it around but their control of him is running out. He will be a free agent after the 2027. They have the same control for Gray as the Twins have for Ryan, Duran and Jax. If Gray does turn it around I suppose they can trade him next deadline and start the clock over.

I do think the Berrios deal turned out well for the Twins. The key was taking that projected salary and instead of putting it in the owners pockets they went out and added Sonny Gray. The cost to the Twins was 1+ season of Berrios and Chase Petty. The return was two seasons of Sonny Gray, Austin Martin, Simeon Woods Richardson and Kyle DeBarge (comp pick for Gray). If the owners don’t follow through and add Gray’s salary in 2022 then it is a bad deal.

Do we have trust that this ownership will spend the resources to replace Ryan or Duran or Jax this winter? That was the key to the Berrios deal.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

29 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

We certain he’s lame duck? I’m not at all certain of that 

If he behaves like he’s a lame duck, he’s certain to be one, regardless of ownership changes.

[JDubs]

Quote

If this year goes the way it appears to be going, the Twins will have missed the playoffs four of the last five seasons, and the roster (while not without talent) doesn’t look like the product of a visionary baseball mind.

I don't think it's really fair to judge a front office when ownership refuses to spend. You really can't include the at least last two years in evaluating this FO because no one would have been able to cut salary and put out a better team. The reason people always point to the Rays' success is because it's such an outlier -- any other team with penny-pinching ownership pretty much always has a terrible record unless they luck into something. Just imagine where this team could be if they simply kept stable at the 2023 payroll.

[hitterscount]

Die hard Twin fan, always will be. But tuning out after the Baldelli extension and joining my wife in watching the Brewers has been refreshing. 

The two teams and approaches are night and day difference. Brewers focus on athletes, meaning...  speed, defense, base running, contact, moving runners into scoring position in close games( bunting or stealing bases), constant pressure on the opponents pitchers and defense, overall discipline, accountability to not only yourself but the team. 

With that, this team can't be sold fast enough. There needs to be a change in the front office and on the field...... Baldelli and Falvey  need to be shown the door and should have last year. I don't trust Falvey in anything, this team has talent, especially in the pitching staff, so if he feels like he needs to do something trade away all the position players you want, because there needs to be a complete overhaul there anyway, but leave the pitching staff alone because I have zero trust in what you are doing and less in identifying talent in the position players.  

Worse is the lack of direction in this teams offensive approach, poor defense and basic fundamental baseball. Hopefully there's a new staff in place next season so I can tune in again. Have a great day everyone... 

[Finlander]

If Falvey wants to either secure an extension here, or audition his skills for his next job, he should be trusted to make the best deal possible for the Twins. Sure, I'd trust him. Plenty of incentive and motivation to get it right.

Ryan should go nowhere. But I could see one of the relievers going, especially if the Twins could somehow attach Vasquez to the deal, maybe to the Dodgers for a prospect package that includes their young catcher.

[Jack207]

Agree totally with last opinion. Twins are not fundamentally sound. Baserunning, contact with men in scoring position etc. This is one man's responsibility. Baldelli has to go!

 

 

[harmony55]

A Boston blogger proposes a trade of Joe Ryan, Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax for five reportedly Top 100 prospects:

Crafting a 3-Team Blockbuster With the Twins to Get Red Sox Some Pitching Help - Red Sox - Talk Sox

TALKSOX.COM

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Can the Red Sox pull a third team in to facilitate a blockbuster deal with the Twins at the trade deadline?

 

[saviking]

I trust him to do the best he can .. buttt

[yeahyabetcha]

29 minutes ago, hitterscount said:

Die hard Twin fan, always will be. But tuning out after the Baldelli extension and joining my wife in watching the Brewers has been refreshing. 

The two teams and approaches are night and day difference. Brewers focus on athletes, meaning...  speed, defense, base running, contact, moving runners into scoring position in close games( bunting or stealing bases), constant pressure on the opponents pitchers and defense, overall discipline, accountability to not only yourself but the team. 

With that, this team can't be sold fast enough. There needs to be a change in the front office and on the field...... Baldelli and Falvey  need to be shown the door and should have last year. I don't trust Falvey in anything, this team has talent, especially in the pitching staff, so if he feels like he needs to do something trade away all the position players you want, because there needs to be a complete overhaul there anyway, but leave the pitching staff alone because I have zero trust in what you are doing and less in identifying talent in the position players.  

Worse is the lack of direction in this teams offensive approach, poor defense and basic fundamental baseball. Hopefully there's a new staff in place next season so I can tune in again. Have a great day everyone... 

I hope you don’t get injured jumping from bandwagon to bandwagon.

[Parfigliano]

2 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

Excellent well thought out article.  Im not a fan of Falvey.  I think for all the reasons you listed, he and Baldelli have dragged the franchise down not up.  Im not sure how you skirt around Falvey making these decisions though.  IMO Falvey can't be totally trusted to make these decisions.  But here we go.  Best thing a new owner could do is replace the front office.  Yes this includes both Falvey and Baldelli.

This is a organization sorely needing decapitation.

[jorgenswest]

14 minutes ago, harmony55 said:

A Boston blogger proposes a trade of Joe Ryan, Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax for for five reportedly Top 100 prospects:

Crafting a 3-Team Blockbuster With the Twins to Get Red Sox Some Pitching Help - Red Sox - Talk Sox

TALKSOX.COM

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Can the Red Sox pull a third team in to facilitate a blockbuster deal with the Twins at the trade deadline?

 

Are these among the many FV50s in the top 100 that will also span towards 200? These would be players like SWR when he was a prospect. Is it real top prospects like Anthony, Campbell and Mayer?

The Twins would be fools to take a deal of what amounts to five FV50 prospects. They might be fools.

[JBK]

Trade Baldelli

[PatG]

IMO, Falvey n Levine were brought in to establish a pitching pipeline.  To some degree they have succeeded!! 

What team could lose 2 of their top 3 starters and stay in contention (with most bats not performing).......  They now are in a position to deal from strength (excellent bullpen) at the trading deadline. 

Under previous admins, Mathews, Festa, Adams would still be toiling in the minors to eventually become (the finest of) AAAA players.  These young guys are pitching now...

Some mistakes have been made (Mahle trade).

BTW, Doesn't anybody want McCusker up here???? I do, push Larnach, Walner.....

[lukeduke1980]

Has anyone put together a projected 2026 payroll?  I know new ownership can reset the expectation, but wouldn't expect a drastic increase.  Just curious if that influences the need to trade these players

[Otaknam]

Trade the guys on expiring contracts who have trade value, like Castro, Bader and Coulombe. I think they will trade either Jax or Duran if they can get a very solid return. But keep Ryan so the rotation stays together, Lopez, Ryan, Ober and Matthews can be very good if they stay healthy, leaving Festa and SWR as a number five starter.

2 hours ago, In My La Z boy said:

Amen! No prospect and no amount of prospects can equal a stud #1 starter under team control for years. Prospects may or may not pan out. Joe has panned out spectacularly and he's on his way. Get Pablo and Ober back, w/Zebby looking awesome last night, I'm saying we have a chance. I am also not in favor of blowing up the bullpen for prospects. 

Ryan has been excellent, but he’s not a typical ace like Skubal, Skenes, Verlander or Roger Clements. He and Lopez are both number two starters on a good team, capable of winning 15-17 games. The only pitchers they should think about trading are Coulombe on an expiring contract and either Duran or Jax IF they get an excellent return, including a highly rated young starting pitcher.