The Writing Seems To Be on the Wall for Alex Kirilloff

[Eric Blonigen]

This weekend, the Twins shared health updates for nearly every player on the injured list – except Alex Kirilloff. That’s likely telling, and may signal the end of Kirilloff’s tenure with the Twins after yet another season lost to injury and underwhelming performance.

Image courtesy of Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Alex Kirilloff was the Twins’ first-round pick in the 2016 draft, and quickly rose up the prospect rankings, topping out as the number nine prospect in baseball. In 2018, he led all of the minors with 71 extra base hits.

His first cup of coffee came in the 2020 playoffs, where he was the first player in team history to debut in the postseason. As he worked his way through the minors, he was continually praised for having a sweet swing, and the assumption was he may hit around .280 with 20-homer power.

Since his debut, he has played in 249 games across parts of four seasons. Over that span, he has been exactly a replacement-level player, worth 0.0 fWAR, with brief periods of excellence punctuated by longer stretches of mediocrity, or worse. His tenure, should it be concluding, is marred by injuries, poor communication, and questions about what could have been.

When fully healthy, he has raked. But, he has rarely been healthy enough to do so for more than 50 ABs at a time. Let’s examine the factors at play when considering his future with the Twins.

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Injuries

Kirilloff has been snake bit throughout his career. He lost his first full season in 2017 to Tommy John surgery. In 2019, he missed roughly half a season due to a wrist injury. He lost significant time in 2021 and 2022 because of wrist injuries, first enduring a torn ligament in his wrist, then eventually having his ulnar shaved to reduce bone-on-bone contact. In 2023, he underwent surgery again after the season to repair a torn labrum in his shoulder. Fast forward to 2024, and he was demoted due to poor performance, then announced afterwards that he was actually injured. His option was reversed and he was placed on the IL, not to be heard from since despite receiving a cortisone shot in his back nearly two months ago. 

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Ineffectiveness

There’s just no way to sugarcoat this: Kirilloff hasn’t been a good hitter for more than a couple weeks at a time in his four-year major-league career. Were he a shortstop, center fielder, or catcher, a pedestrian bat would still play. However, his defense is suspect – even at first base or in the corner outfield. Looking at FanGraphs’ OAA, Kirilloff has never been better than average at any defensive position, save a 20 game stretch at 1B in 2021. Thus far in his career, he’s been worth -23 OAA across the defensive spectrum. Since defense declines with age, it’s fair to say that his best position is DH. Unfortunately for him, he doesn’t hit well enough for that to be a reasonable possibility.

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Communication

It’s tough to pinpoint how the Twins front office feels about the communication issues from Kirilloff. While it’s certainly not unheard of for a young player to hide an injury (see Joe Ryan, 2023), it’s not a good look to struggle for weeks on end and get sent down, only to disclose an injury afterward. Has he burned bridges? Tough to say. However, best case scenario, he’s likely lost some trust and will be on a short leash going forward.

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Pay

The Twins have stated they are likely to cut payroll further next season. As a super-2 player going through arbitration for the second time, Kirilloff is likely due for a raise to around $2M despite his performance. In a world where that’s significant money for ownership, the salary may be considered a luxury when it could be spent instead on a functional reliever, or go towards a veteran starting pitcher to challenge Simeon Woods Richardson, David Festa and Zebby Matthews for the 4th and 5th spots in the rotation.

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40-man crunch and depth chart

With the second-ranked farm system in baseball, and the wealth of major league caliber hitters at their disposal, there’s no reason to hold onto hope for someone who’s upside may be a 110 OPS+ player while also being is also a defensive liability. There are a number of players likely ahead of Kirilloff in the 1B/DH/LF mix. It’s safe to assume that each of Matt Wallner, Eddie Julien, Trevor Larnach and Jose Miranda will take priority for at bats, with Yunior Severino and Emmanuel Rodriguez waiting in the wings.

This offseason, a number of players will need to be at least considered for additions to the 40-man roster ahead of the rule 5 draft: Ricardo Olivar, Marco Raya, and Christian MacLeod are virtual locks, one of Patrick Winkel or Noah Cardenas could be added, and even Aaron Sabato, Kyler Fedko, and Rubel Cespedes are possibilities if the Twins believe they have a future with the big league club. The Twins will also need to re-add Brock Stewart and Justin Topa at season’s end when their 60-day IL stints end. While the Twins will have several players dropping off due to free agency (Kyle Farmer, Carlos Santana, Manny Margot, Caleb Thielbar, Max Kepler, Trevor Richards), there will be some tough decisions to make, and Kirilloff could find himself the odd man out if the Twins are no longer confident in his abilities.

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Due to these factors, it seems increasingly likely that Alex Kirilloff, once among the top prospects in baseball, may be traded this offseason in a low-impact swap of freezer-burned players, or non-tendered in favor of a player who has a better chance at holding down a spot on a competitive roster.

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What do you think? Is Kirilloff’s time with the Twins coming to an end? Comment below with your thoughts!

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[Karbo]

I think he really put himself in the dog house with the management team over the unreported injury. He has been a mess due to all the injury issues the past few years. IMO he needs to be trade bait. Who knows, give him a fresh start with a new organization and he may really take off. It seems he has really been passed by with so many coming up thru the system.

[tony&rodney]

Baseball is a numbers game and Kirilloff has been mediocre in MLB action. This was the year for the Twins to find out what they had in their 2016 first pick. Hard to see AK on the roster next season; he gone.

[stringer bell]

Because he still has an option year, I think the Twins hang on to Kirilloff one more year. Except for a sharp first half of April, he did not perform well, that is a fact. The Twins are almost certain to part ways with Max Kepler, meaning there will be room for another corner outfield left handed bat.

IMHO, AK's predicament mirrors Trevor Larnach's coming in to this year. He won't have a place to play unless there is an injury or someone really slumps and may have to go to the minors to await his chance. Also in Kirilloff's favor is that top prospect Emmanuel Rodriguez has missed two thirds of the season and didn't get out of AA, so he is at best a midseason prospect for promotion. If the Twins do re-sign Santana, that will close another door on Kirilloff's future as a Twin.

[rv78]

Unfortunately you may be correct. I had such high hopes for that swing and the AK we saw in the minors. There are just too many other options going forward for 1B, from Miranda, to resigning Santana, to sliding to another Free Agent option like they did with Santana, to giving Severino a shot. Add in moving a Julien or some other young player to play 1B and AK's chances dwindle even more. I hate to say it but it is time to move on and trade him.

[arby58]

Kirilloff looks like a player with a great future behind him. Of course, the same was said about Brent Rooker, I saw Kirilloff in a AAA game at Des Moines hit two monster home runs (one that hit off the facing above the left field boxes and required repair) and and a ringing double to the wall in center field. When he was on, he could rake, but he just hasn't been on that much. Seems like injuries are the issue, but there comes a point when you move on, and this seems like the point for the Twins. Maybe he makes it back elsewhere, and that's ok.

[FlyingFinn]

"This offseason, a number of players will need to be at least considered for additions to the 40-man roster ahead of the rule 5 draft: Ricardo Olivar, Marco Raya, and Christian MacLeod are virtual locks, one of Patrick Winkel or Noah Cardenas could be added, and even Aaron Sabato, Kyler Fedko, and Rubel Cespedes are possibilities if the Twins believe they have a future with the big league club."

I can't disagree with you more on this. There's no way Sabato, Fedko, Cespedes and Cardenas are added (I would have added Cardenas after his April this year but he is hitting about .150 since then). Winkel only gets added if Camargo gets subtracted and I don't see that either. Olivar is a possibility but not a virtual lock. Right now, I don't have him getting added either. Raya is the only lock. I have MacLeod getting added but others do not.

[Heiny]

24 minutes ago, rv78 said:

Unfortunately you may be correct. I had such high hopes for that swing and the AK we saw in the minors. There are just too many other options going forward for 1B, from Miranda, to resigning Santana, to sliding to another Free Agent option like they did with Santana, to giving Severino a shot. Add in moving a Julien or some other young player to play 1B and AK's chances dwindle even more. I hate to say it but it is time to move on and trade him.

I'm probably in the great minority here, but I think Julien is another candidate to be traded in the off-season.  Kirilloff and Julien both seem to be in need of a change of venue.  Juliens' strikeouts are becoming harder and harder to take, and we have good young middle infielders more than ready to take over those spots.  Only question is, can we get anything for them.  Also, after a slow start, Santana has performed admirably and I wouldn't be upset if they signed him for his year 39 season.  Don't think that will happen though due to the Twins self-imposed money crunch.

 

[adamsa804]

Gotta love being a fan of the Minnesota Twinjuries

[LambchoP]

Since he has one more option year, I say stash him in AAA and see if he can find his swing. 1B looks pretty well covered, especially if we give Santana another year. If not, we can use Miranda, Lewis or maybe eventually try Severino. With Kepler leaving, there will be OF at bats available. Give him half a season in AAA to win a corner OF spot or at the very least, play well enough so that we'd get something worthwhile back in a trade for him. I'd take the same approach with Julien. His 2023 success is unfortunately looking like a fluke. Once the book got out on him, he's been an automatic out. With Keaschal being at least another year away probably, Twins might want to look at a free agent 2nd baseman for the short term. I can't see Julien there long term. Castro and Martin have been serviceable, but both are better suited to utility roles. If Lee can get healthy and stay consistent, then we may not need anyone, but I still say a veteran second baseman would do our team good. Even if it's just for next year to give Lee a bit more seasoning, or as injury insurance for Lee.

[Eris]

“It’s tough to pinpoint how the Twins front office feels about the communication issuesfrom Kirilloff. While it’s certainly not unheard of for a young player to hide an injury (see Joe Ryan, 2023), it’s not a good look to struggle for weeks on end and get sent down, only to disclose an injury afterward.”

My guess is that this is on his agent, Scott Boras. While on the IL, Kirilloff accumulates MLB service time. 

[jmlease1]

Kirilloff is not in a good place, unfortunately. He's got to hit to be on the roster, and he hasn't been able to hit consistently in MLB and he certainly hasn't been able to stay healthy. I had a lot of hope for him going into the season especially after it looked like the wrist surgery had finally worked and he'd had a solid year (OPS+ of 117).

But it's been another lost season for him and there's only so many of those you can have before the team is going to move on. He's still young enough that he could get himself back on track, but it's a lot of injuries to overcome.

He had a really sweet swing. Shame he hasn't been able to put it together.

[ashbury]

The remaining option-year increases his trade value.  I'm an admitted prospect-hoarder and trading him scares me more than the typical prospect, except he's not technically a prospect anymore.  I suspect we don't get much back for him, but the upside remains multiyear-all-star, multiplied by his low chances for health.  That's hard to assign the probabilities to. 

I guess as part of a package to get a good starter, always the coin of the realm, I'd do it.  I don't know how much he contributes to that package, unfortunately.  FalVine know the conversations they've had with other FOs, and I don't.

[Jeff K]

2 hours ago, arby58 said:

Kirilloff looks like a player with a great future behind him. Of course, the same was said about Brent Rooker, I saw Kirilloff in a AAA game at Des Moines hit two monster home runs (one that hit off the facing above the left field boxes and required repair) and and a ringing double to the wall in center field. When he was on, he could rake, but he just hasn't been on that much. Seems like injuries are the issue, but there comes a point when you move on, and this seems like the point for the Twins. Maybe he makes it back elsewhere, and that's ok.

Darn it, Kirilloff's hitting abilities seem so legit, but the continual resets after injuries are wrecking his chances.  While I like the opportunity to come back after proving himself at AAA next year, I think it is more likely the Twins move on...and you can't blame them.  I like the above quote; "Maybe he makes it back elsewhere, and that's ok."  yup.

[Whitey333]

Yes I e always liked kiriloff.  But enough is enough.  They both need to move on from each other.  I'm hoping kiriloff does great with a new organization.

[PatPfund]

AK's looks to be one of those sad "what if" MLB tales. I'm guessing the wrists are the prime culprit; the bone-shaving operation was always a last ditch effort, and an experimental one at that, and there is NO sign it worked. After rest, Kirilloff can have a strong spurt which then invariably fades into weak-rollover-swing-mode, just as you'd expect from a key joint getting inflamed from hard use. (Exactly like Buxton's knee last year.) I'm not as concerned about the D, because judging that on someone battling injury isn't super useful.... except in this case where the injury has every sign of being unfixable and chronic. With poor D, poor O, and no solution, save the $2 million and move on.

[bean5302]

Kirilloff, if totally shielded from LHP, could be a "little above average bat" playing DH. He's Arb 2. 100% non-tender. Kirilloff did not hide his injury. He was actively being treated for his injury. I could see the Twins bringing him back on a MiLB contract, though as I don't expect any team in MLB will be willing to give him an MLB contract.

What Kirilloff did was put the team in a bit of a bind by responding to his demotion to AAA by stating his pain level had gotten worse to the point he wasn't able to play normally. This forced the Twins to reverse their option transaction, move him to the 15 day IL and re-shuffle the roster.

I don't know him personally. Might be a really great guy, but his on the field performance has never warranted a roster spot. Even his breakout 2023 campaign, which was floated by a .337 BABIP (.374 BABIP vs RHP) still had Kirilloff projecting at an uninspiring 1.0 WAR full season (150 games) level.

[JAH]

I’m not comparing wrist issues, but I don’t think it is time to give up on AK yet. Two words:  Big Papi. 
 

 

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, stringer bell said:

Because he still has an option year, I think the Twins hang on to Kirilloff one more year.

I think the option is their only hope of getting any trade return for Kirilloff. Nobody will want him if they have to put him on the 26 man roster.

[Doctor Gast]

Back a few years ago many were for trading away Lewis & keeping Kiriloff. I saw the overall worth of Lewis & was dead-set on keeping Lewis even before AFL. Many loved Kiriloff bat & overlooked his glove. On Baseball Trade Values all my trades for big-time SP (Castillo) included Kiriloff. I wished we had traded Kiriloff back then. 

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 His tenure, should it be concluding, is marred by injuries, poor communication, and questions about what could have been.

IMO this whole team plus others that are gone, are marred from poor communication, injuries & questions of what could have been. IMO it's unfair to make Kiriloff pay when others are just as guilty. Others who have had injury problems were put & kept on DH to protect them. Kiriloff was put on 1B/ DH duty until Larnach hurt his toe & Kiriloff, who was one of if not the best hitter on the Twins & his bat was needed in the line-up. So Kiriloff was taken off DH/1B duty & put in the OF where he hurt himself & all this mess started, 

IMO all this could have been avoided if they hadn't signed FA Santana. Yes Santana is contributing now but when Kiriloff was healthy & raking, Santana was tanking. If we didn't have Santana, Kiriloff would been kept at 1B, he'd have felt more secure in his status with the Twins thus less likely playing hurt & less likely getting hurt & more likely he'd maintain his early success (& increase his trade value). At that point nobody would be talking about trading Kiriloff. Then we could correctly evaluation our needs at 1B. Instead of  Kiriloff fighting for his life now. IMO Santana has impaired us from making efficient & economical decisions present & future, & I'd most certainly wouldn't make that same mistake by resigning Santana.

For the same reason that I'd have traded Kiriloff in the past (high trade value), I would not trade Kiriloff now because of his low trade value. For the same reason MIA will not trade Alcantra this offseason is the same reason I would not trade Kiriloff, because you'll no way get his true value & every team in the league know his potential & will wait in line to get him for nothing. IMO his structural injuries have past, his vulnerable soft-tissue will pass, all his inefficiency is based on injuries with a little patience & proper care Kiriloff will break out soon. Then you can think about trading him. These are my opinions that normally don't line up with social media but I believe they are valid.

[jjswol]

He belongs in the dog house as there have now been a couple of situations where he has not told his management about health issues. He is more interested in playing for himself than his team. That said, it is always the darkest before the dawn. Don't count hm out just yet.

[Fatbat]

A healthy AK could be a player going forward but will that ever happen?  No idea but the speculation will be a topic until he retires or just gets healthy and plays over 120 games.  We have been down this road with guys a few times. 

[Colbeh]

No one but the front office knows what feelings they have towards AK right now.

I can see a scenario where they are writting him off this year, keeping that option year open, and giving him one last shot next season. Thats only if they are not truly bugged out by his hidden injury and he wants to be here.

AK has played 4 big league seasons under 90 games while a decent junk of those have been playing through injuries. He's talented and a gamer. There's still a chance he can provide value to a playoff caliber team.

Age 26 - .248 BA / .309 OBP / .721 OPS

[jorgenswest]

The Twins were correct to hold onto Larnach and Miranda though they could have sold low on them. I don’t think I would sell low on Kirilloff.

They did sell low on Gordon and correctly assessed that he wasn’t going to return to 2022 form. Even that decision gave little value as selling low did not return much help in Okert.

I would keep him and hope on his upside until it is time to DFA him.

[DJL44]

43 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

IMO all this could have been avoided if they hadn't signed FA Santana. Yes Santana is contributing now but when Kiriloff was healthy & raking, Santana was tanking. If we didn't have Santana, Kiriloff would been kept at 1B, he'd have felt more secure in his status with the Twins

So the Twins should avoid signing better players in order to make their bad players feel more comfortable.

Professional sports are competitive. Nobody has a guaranteed roster spot. Produce or you are gone.

[Schmoeman5]

50 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Back a few years ago many were for trading away Lewis & keeping Kiriloff. I saw the overall worth of Lewis & was dead-set on keeping Lewis even before AFL. Many loved Kiriloff bat & overlooked his glove. On Baseball Trade Values all my trades for big-time SP (Castillo) included Kiriloff. I wished we had traded Kiriloff back then. 

IMO this whole team plus others that are gone, are marred from poor communication, injuries & questions of what could have been. IMO it's unfair to make Kiriloff pay when others are just as guilty. Others who have had injury problems were put & kept on DH to protect them. Kiriloff was put on 1B/ DH duty until Larnach hurt his toe & Kiriloff, who was one of if not the best hitter on the Twins & his bat was needed in the line-up. So Kiriloff was taken off DH/1B duty & put in the OF where he hurt himself & all this mess started, 

IMO all this could have been avoided if they hadn't signed FA Santana. Yes Santana is contributing now but when Kiriloff was healthy & raking, Santana was tanking. If we didn't have Santana, Kiriloff would been kept at 1B, he'd have felt more secure in his status with the Twins thus less likely playing hurt & less likely getting hurt & more likely he'd maintain his early success (& increase his trade value). At that point nobody would be talking about trading Kiriloff. Then we could correctly evaluation our needs at 1B. Instead of  Kiriloff fighting for his life now. IMO Santana has impaired us from making efficient & economical decisions present & future, & I'd most certainly wouldn't make that same mistake by resigning Santana.

For the same reason that I'd have traded Kiriloff in the past (high trade value), I would not trade Kiriloff now because of his low trade value. For the same reason MIA will not trade Alcantra this offseason is the same reason I would not trade Kiriloff, because you'll no way get his true value & every team in the league know his potential & will wait in line to get him for nothing. IMO his structural injuries have past, his vulnerable soft-tissue will pass, all his inefficiency is based on injuries with a little patience & proper care Kiriloff will break out soon. Then you can think about trading him. These are my opinions that normally don't line up with social media but I believe they are valid.

You've been saying this for months. How do you you know he hurt himself playing the outfield? He may have hurt himself just as easily on one of those triples he was banging around at the start of this year.

[PDX Twin]

The Twins messed up from the beginning. He'd have contributed more to the attack if they'd given AK #47.

[ashbury]

34 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

So the Twins should avoid signing better players in order to make their bad players feel more comfortable.

Kirilloff's OPS last season was .793, in injury-shortened duty.  Santana hasn't had an OPS that high since Kirilloff was in AA in 2019.  Health is always hard to forecast but it's a stretch to call Kirilloff "bad" at the time the decision had to be made on Santana.  "Risky" is more descriptive, although it's slightly odd to sign a declining 38-year old to mitigate the risk.  It's worked out, in a Plan-B sort of way giving slightly above-average results - not bad at all.

The chance of someone muddling through the season successfully was higher with Santana.  The chance of someone truly leading the way with a 100-RBI season was higher with Kirilloff (something Santana has never done in his career, BTW).  Santana leads the Twins so far with 54, mainly by default because no one else has stepped up. (Two guys in the majors are already at 100 and several more are knocking at the door.)

[Rufus]

Miranda was pretty well written off at the beginning of this season as I recall..  Kirilliff has the talent and is still young.  If he can get his injury jinx behind him he can be a contributor to a MLB team.  When healthy he has produced.  Why give up on him now?  

[Doctor Gast]

25 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

So the Twins should avoid signing better players in order to make their bad players feel more comfortable.

Professional sports are competitive. Nobody has a guaranteed roster spot. Produce or you are gone.

That's absolutely ridiculous! Kiriloff is a far superior hitter that vastly outproduced Santana while he was healthy & wasn't given the opportunity to stay healthy. I can't help that you can't see that the Miranda/ Kiriloff platoon is far better option than only Santana. You can disagree with what I write but let's not be ridiculous.