The Writing Seems To Be on the Wall for Alex Kirilloff

[Schmoeman5]

10 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

"wasn't given the opportunity to stay healthy?" HUH??

Yeah. See. 1st, he was already hurt. Then when they signed Santana. His feelings got hurt. And then he had to play outfield.  Which hurted him even more. Cuz that Santana guy took his spot at 1st. Where he woulda got all better if he played there instead of the outfield which makes you get hurt even more. His sliding into bases or running the bases. That don't hurt. Got it?

[Riverbrian]

On June 13th... It was announced that Alex Kirilloff was sent to AAA. 

On June 18th... 5 days later it was announced that Alex Kirilloff was not going to St. Paul but going onto the injured list. 

I've seen quotes from Alex admitting that he understated the severity of his injury because he wanted to keep playing. I've seen quotes from Rocco stating that Alex needs to do a better job of communicating his health status with the club. 

Question #1... I assume because he never played for St. Paul that his one option still hasn't been used up but I have to ask... announcing that a player is reporting to St. Paul doesn't burn the option. 

That question is important because if he runs out of options his situation with the club change drastically. 

If his back improves this year and he's ready to go this year. Where does the team send him? Does he burn that option and report to St. Paul or does he report to Target Field for major league action? 

If he burns that option... his standing with the club in 2025 is threatened. His clock has run out. There is no more space to maneuver. He has to perform or put on waivers.  

 

[tony&rodney]

My disappointment with Kirilloff is related to his physical condition. I have been one to believe strongly in AK due to his sweet bat displays for the Saints. I don't know what his goals or plans were for this season nor do I know how he prepared from November to March for the 2024 season. I do know he looked bigger/thicker, was noticeably slower, and seemed to struggle at first base and in the outfield. While the Twins have focused solely on hitting among their position players, they do expect preparation and improvement in other areas (fielding, running, throwing). Whether the bat plays in the future or not it is tough to roster a guy who cannot run the bases or put a glove on his hand. Alex is still young enough to turn around his career. I doubt this occurs in a Twins uniform.

[USAFChief]

22 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

On June 13th... It was announced that Alex Kirilloff was sent to AAA. 

On June 18th... 5 days later it was announced that Alex Kirilloff was not going to St. Paul but going onto the injured list. 

Question #1... I assume because he never played for St. Paul that his one option still hasn't been used up but I have to ask... announcing that a player is reporting to St. Paul doesn't burn the option. 

 

 

 

They haven't used an option on Kirilloff yet in 2024.

A player must spend at least 20 days on optional assignment to count as an option year used.

 

https://www.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/minor-league-options

 

That could change, of course. But as of now, no option burned. 

I don't think the days in June before the IL count, since he didn't report,  but I can't find any way to confirm or deny that opinion. 

 

[Riverbrian]

18 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

They haven't used an option on Kirilloff yet in 2024.

A player must spend at least 20 days on optional assignment to count as an option year used.

 

https://www.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/minor-league-options

 

That could change, of course. But as of now, no option burned. 

I don't think the days in June before the IL count, since he didn't report,  but I can't find any way to confirm or deny that opinion. 

 

That's good new for Alex and the Twins.

With that information... I'd say that the wall this article refers to does not have writing on it. 

There would be no need to make a hard decision on him prematurely unless there is a 40 man crunch this off-season and the organization would have to be pretty down on him for him to not survive a roster crunch. 

The key is going to be what happens the rest of the season. Is he done for the year? If he is not... where does he report to when he comes back? 

That option remaining makes it less likely that we trade him to Miami for Okert. If it gets burned this year... people can start writing on the wall.      

[USAFChief]

47 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

That's good new for Alex and the Twins.

With that information... I'd say that the wall this article refers to does not have writing on it. 

There would be no need to make a hard decision on him prematurely unless there is a 40 man crunch this off-season and the organization would have to be pretty down on him for him to not survive a roster crunch. 

The key is going to be what happens the rest of the season. Is he done for the year? If he is not... where does he report to when he comes back? 

That option remaining makes it less likely that we trade him to Miami for Okert. If it gets burned this year... people can start writing on the wall.      

Concur. I dont think salary is really prohibitive either.

And Come September 1st there's an extra Twins roster spot or two open as well, if needed. 

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

3 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

You are accusing me of fabricating a false narrative or lying for some reason. We live in a free country as far as I am aware. In a free country the burden of proof lies on the accuser not the accused (the person is innocent until proven guilty). Maybe some people don't care if they are liars, come up with false narratives to fit their agenda or to be called one. Be assured I am not one of them. I take it very seriously not to lie. I have no alternative motive to create a false narrative. I certainly don't look to TD as my source of recognition.

On the other hand, social media is full of false narratives, a conduit to spread lies, spin stats to benefit themselves & their cause. Here is where people get their info, & believe everything they read as gospel which in many cases are not. Just because so many people believe social media as gospel doesn't mean it's true. People who come up with these false narratives don't want to encourage you to think they want you to irrationally accept everything they say. You only think what I say is ridiculous because it doesn't fit into your nice little social media box.

I don't understand why so many people want to attack my credibility. That's why I use past confrontations to confirm my credibility & my confronters' amnesia not to pat myself on the back (I'm sorry if it may appear that way). My motive is solely to open people's eyes, get people to observe, think on their own, make assumptions on their own, come to conclusions on their own & not accept everything blindly. If that is to buck the system then so be it. I always say to consider the source, I have nothing to gain by what I write. I don't want people to blindly accept my observations but my hope is that they'd be open & start their own process. My appeal is to open-minded people who can see my sincerity & honesty & be not distracted by the noise.

You are accusing "many others" of something you apparently cannot prove and have no interest of proving. Good enough for me to know not to trust your baseless accusations.

[chpettit19]

56 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

That's good new for Alex and the Twins.

With that information... I'd say that the wall this article refers to does not have writing on it. 

There would be no need to make a hard decision on him prematurely unless there is a 40 man crunch this off-season and the organization would have to be pretty down on him for him to not survive a roster crunch. 

The key is going to be what happens the rest of the season. Is he done for the year? If he is not... where does he report to when he comes back? 

That option remaining makes it less likely that we trade him to Miami for Okert. If it gets burned this year... people can start writing on the wall.      

 

9 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Concur. I dont think salary is really prohibitive either.

And Come September 1st there's an extra Twins roster spot or two open as well, if needed. 

And with a rehab assignment possible for 20 days they could probably get away with not having to put him back on the major league roster for much time at all this year if they don't want to. Assuming that no news is bad news on his current injury situation and his return is not imminent. 

[Riverbrian]

1 minute ago, chpettit19 said:

 

And with a rehab assignment possible for 20 days they could probably get away with not having to put him back on the major league roster at all this year if they don't want to. Assuming that no news is bad news on his current injury situation and his return is not imminent. 

Right now... I'd guess we have two players Julien and Martin who could be sent down to AAA but those two are keeping the seat warm for Correa and Buxton and hopefully their eventual returns.  

After Julien and Martin... I'm not sure who Kirilloff would replace on the roster. Miranda certainly shouldn't be sent down since he has been performing. They are not going to cut Margot or Farmer for Kirilloff so they could sit on Kirilloff until Santana or Wallner or Larnach or Kepler gets hurt or goes into a Kirilloff sized funk.   

Until then... I'm not sure the Twins are in a hurry to get Kirilloff ready to go.   

[bean5302]

Why would the Twins tender Kirilloff a contract when they could non-tender him and sign him to a MiLB contract? I can't see any team knocking on Kirilloff's door with anything other than a MiLB offer.

The whole "when he's healthy" argument doesn't hold up to even the slightest scrutiny. As if the Twins rolled Kirilloff out into the batters box while he was in a wheelchair or something. Kirilloff had a sore back and underwent an MRI on 5/26. So he must have been injured at that time, right? Oh, but 5/22-5/29 he couldn't have been injured because he hit .375/.444/.750 OPS 1.194 wRC+ 233. It was 5/31 and later when he was actually hurt, after the MRI was clean because he didn't hit well.

Kirilloff is a below average hitter at the MLB level. Last year was nothing more than a little luck with his .375 BABIP against RHP floating him.

[Jim wyllie]

Best option for the twins is trade kirilloff, move Lewis to first making room for lee at third, putting martin at 2nd.   AK if kept could end up costing the twins a goid prospect in the rule 5 draft

[Parfigliano]

On 8/18/2024 at 7:12 AM, Karbo said:

I think he really put himself in the dog house with the management team over the unreported injury. He has been a mess due to all the injury issues the past few years. IMO he needs to be trade bait. Who knows, give him a fresh start with a new organization and he may really take off. It seems he has really been passed by with so many coming up thru the system.

I think the last straw was crying injury when told he was headed to AAA.  Bush league move.  Bye-bye.

[Parfigliano]

On 8/18/2024 at 9:03 AM, Eris said:

“It’s tough to pinpoint how the Twins front office feels about the communication issuesfrom Kirilloff. While it’s certainly not unheard of for a young player to hide an injury (see Joe Ryan, 2023), it’s not a good look to struggle for weeks on end and get sent down, only to disclose an injury afterward.”

My guess is that this is on his agent, Scott Boras. While on the IL, Kirilloff accumulates MLB service time. 

The im injured ploy was obvious.

[Parfigliano]

On 8/18/2024 at 12:44 PM, USAFChief said:

I don't think Kirilloff's salary will impact either. 

 

For the record I don't think Castro is a Twin next year.

I think these last 2 years have put Castro out of TC price range

[Road trip]

 

4 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Why would the Twins tender Kirilloff a contract when they could non-tender him and sign him to a MiLB contract? I can't see any team knocking on Kirilloff's door with anything other than a MiLB offer.

 

With Boras for an agent, I think Kirilloff would be told to sign elsewhere were the Twins to non-tender him, even if it were another MiLB offer, and he would almost certainly get those.

[Craig Arko]

 

[bighat]

On 8/18/2024 at 2:31 PM, USAFChief said:

Kiriloff "wasn't given the opportunity to stay healthy"?

LOL I thought that too - like whaaa? 

When I reach the Pearly Gates I'm going to use that on the big man upstairs. "I wouldn't be here if you'd have given me the opportunity to stay healthy!"

 

[stringer bell]

12 hours ago, Craig Arko said:

 

That is the first news on Kirilloff in a long while. He'll get 20 days (maximum) in St. Paul to show that he can help the club. With Santana ahead of him at first base and Wallner and Larnach both doing well, it might take an injury for him to score a place on the active roster. Teams can only add two players after September 1, and most likely Lee, Buxton and Correa will need to be added as position players. 

[arby58]

On 8/18/2024 at 12:42 PM, ashbury said:

Kirilloff's OPS last season was .793, in injury-shortened duty.  Santana hasn't had an OPS that high since Kirilloff was in AA in 2019.  Health is always hard to forecast but it's a stretch to call Kirilloff "bad" at the time the decision had to be made on Santana.  "Risky" is more descriptive, although it's slightly odd to sign a declining 38-year old to mitigate the risk.  It's worked out, in a Plan-B sort of way giving slightly above-average results - not bad at all.

Alex Kirilloff is a career 0.2 WAR. Santana is 37.4. His results this year 'slightly above average' in your perspective include among Twins players 2nd in HRs, 2nd in RBIs, 2nd in total bases, and 5th in WAR, at 1.8. Kirilloff is -0.5 WAR. You really think the Twins should have stuck with him given his injuries and form? Santana has been huge in clutch positions - anything similar from Kirilloff? Nope.

[Linus]

And Kiriloff s rehab has been halted again due to back soreness. 

[ashbury]

10 hours ago, arby58 said:

Alex Kirilloff is a career 0.2 WAR. Santana is 37.4. His results this year 'slightly above average' in your perspective include among Twins players 2nd in HRs, 2nd in RBIs, 2nd in total bases, and 5th in WAR, at 1.8. Kirilloff is -0.5 WAR. You really think the Twins should have stuck with him given his injuries and form? Santana has been huge in clutch positions - anything similar from Kirilloff? Nope.

I was writing about the decision to sign Santana just before spring training.  Go ahead and pat yourself on the back for putting words in my mouth about Kirilloff's performance this season, though. (I probably would have pulled the plug on Alex a month before they did - big disappointment.)

WAR is basically a counting stat just like HRs, RBIs, TB.  Willi Castro and Carlos Santana lead the team in plate appearances, by a lot, and their bWARs of 1.7 and 1.9 are actually pretty pathetic at this point in the season, if anyone wants to point to them as leading the team toward serious contention - which is why their bWAA are close to zero, marking them as average major leaguers, give or take.  Guys who won't really hurt you but aren't really excelling.  Personally I have higher aspirations for this roster than a .500 season, which is what average players bring you.

Santana used to be better than this, putting up twice the value in a typical season in his prime.  But pointing to his very good career WAR tells you little about what he can do for the team now.  And his 2024 stats bear that out.  Comparing him to the rest of the team is embarrassing - to the team.  Ryan Jeffers leads with 20 HR, for instance, and there are currently 38 other major leaguers with a higher total.  Santana's tied for 59th in HR.  Total bases?  Santana's 89th in the majors.  RBIs?  Tied for 84th.  WAR?  Tied for 117th.  The Twins needed for someone to step up and do better than these, but injuries have taken away playing time from all the better candidates.

Clutch?  I like WPA as a quick snapshot of situational output, and Santana's 0.6 ranks tied for 95th in the majors.  Pretty consistent with everything else mentioned above.

He's been a good major leaguer this season.  But not "huge" at anything.