Let's Talk About Who's Actually the Most Overrated Player in MLB

[Nick Nelson]

There's been buzz around these parts regarding the subject of overrated players, with Carlos Correa's name popping up as such in a recent player poll.

That's pretty laughable, as Correa has emphatically underscored with his performance since. But if we want to actually talk about overrated MLB players, there's another name I'd submit, for the sake of making some broader points about modern baseball theory and analysis. (Not to mention Twins fan FOMO.)

Image courtesy of Matt Krohn and John Jones-USA TODAY Sports

As Cody Christie covered here last week, Carlos Correa's name appeared among the top three for "most overrated player" in a spring player poll conducted by The Athletic. It should be noted that relatively few players opted to answer this question, and Correa came in third with a mere four total votes. Still, his connection with this label does seem to hint at a wider perception gap.

In the first round of MLB All-Star voting, released a few days ago, Correa ranked 10th among MLB shortstops. Tenth! For a name with that recognition level, who was having a good season even before the current torrid streak got underway, that is simply wild. 

Star Tribune columnist LaVelle E. Neal III tweeted last week that "standards haven't been met" by the high-salaried shortstop, demanding more offense from a player who'd been well above average by virtually any metric. As Correa's current rampage got underway, Neal doubled down, even as his own newspaper ran a glowing piece full of clubhouse quotes marveling at Correa's exceptional leadership and culture-shaping impact. 

It's very weird to see. When healthy, Correa is one of the most well-rounded players in baseball. A defensive whiz at shortstop; a disciplined and consistent offensive threat at the plate. He's among the slower middle infielders you'll come across, but that is literally the only significant mark against him in terms of player profile. He does everything well, on and off the field. Yet so many scribes and fans seem to undervalue him while waxing poetic and reminiscing for the days of a bygone singles hitter, who legitimately does only one thing well.

That's right. I'm here to say that Luis Arráez is in fact the most overrated player in baseball, and I continue to believe that the Twins front office executed a master stroke by taking advantage of his inflated valuation to acquire Pablo López.

Let's be clear: I'm not saying Arráez is a bad player, by any means. He's won two straight batting titles, and looks to be on his way to a third. He's just a very one-dimensional player. There's obviously value in making contact and hitting singles at an unparalleled rate, but the name of the game is overall production. In this regard, Arráez amounts to a pretty average player.

Consider this: while Arráez is hitting a robust .318, his OPS (.733) is 13 points lower than that of Carlos Santana (.746), whose batting average is just .239. Minnesota's 38-year-old scrap-heap free agent signee has a significantly higher fWAR (1.1) than Arráez (0.7), who would rank 10th among Twins position players in that metric.

You might feel WAR is overrated. You might feel Arráez's contact-oriented production is preferable to more of a walk-driven OBP and power-fueled OPS. I can buy into those beliefs, to some extent. But production is production, and there's really no argument for Arráez being vastly more productive than Santana (as one example), especially when you account for the chasm in defense. Your mileage may vary when it comes to fielding stats, but it's plain to the eye test that Santana is a good defender and Arráez is a very poor one, who costs his team runs. That has to be factored in. But seemingly, it's not.

Arráez is currently the leader in All-Star votes at second base for the National League, edging Ketel Marte -- who's been immensely better through any lens other than batting average --  by 7,000 votes. I'm sorry, but that's the definition of overrated. And Correa ranking 10th among AL shortstops, behind Zach Neto and J.P. Crawford, is the definition of underrated.

While I'm sure many will interpret it as one, this is not intended as a hit piece on Luis Arráez. I love Arráez! He's one of the most likable players around, and his style of play is enjoyable to me. It was awesome that Correa recently credited conversations with Arráez for helping enable his success this year. The point here is more about the continually exaggerated perception of batting average as a standalone measure of value, or strikeouts as some supreme detriment, and Arráez (who leads the league in GIDP) happens to be the poster child this year.

Arráez's Padres lead the major leagues in batting average (.259). But they rank 10th in OPS, and 10th in runs scored. The Twins rank 15th out of 30 teams in average, but eighth in OPS, and they've scored three more runs than San Diego in four fewer games. That's a perfect reflection of the point at hand here.

Production is production. No team in baseball is using batting average as the primary evaluator of it. The gap between production and perception is the clearest way to objectively characterize a player as overrated or underrated. From this perspective, the narratives around Correa and Arráez are astoundingly twisted up, even on the home front.

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[Brock Beauchamp]

[Riverbrian]

I'll trade Carlos Santana for him!!!

[Craig Arko]

Ohhhhh, myyyyy!

[wabene]

Love me some LaVelle, but purely for entertainment purposes only.

[mikelink45]

I totally disagree - I feel like this is one of those columns where you want to get emotional and, therefore, lots of comments.  Since I feel that analytics are overrated.  One size, one set of mathematics does not mean success.

I would take Arraez on my team - think of the TD articles on Julien.  He was supposed to supplant Arraez - we wanted that kind of player.  But there are only so many. 

Arraez has recently been compared to Gwynn and Carew - I would take them on my team too.

Yes I like BA - but I will not bother with my prejudice for this measurement,  I just respect the player who knows how to control the bat and get on base through hits which have the advantage over walks in that it can induce errors and it can move other runners multiple bases.

Now you have gotten an emotional response and this is as silly as saying Correa is overrated. 

[Andrew Bryz-Gornia]

The Twins traded Arraez because they viewed him as a 1B-only singles hitter. The Marlins traded him because they're going nowhere, but I saw a summary of Arraez around the time of the Marlins/Padres trade that makes tons of sense, which Nick hinted at. Arraez is exceptional at one skill (contact), and it's an important skill, but he becomes worthless when that skill disappears. No team wants to be holding this hot potato when his bat-to-ball skills deteriorate. It's like Ben Revere, who was a 2-win player when hitting .300 but became replacement-level when it dipped down to .275. (DRS views him as a bad defender, just like Arraez.) Once Revere stopped hitting at his previous levels, he was out of the majors. 

[MinnInPa]

the entire league needs many more Arraez type hitters that actually put the bat on the ball ..would be a much much enjoyable game to watch rather than the 30% KKings strutting up to the plate

[Riverbrian]

Someone needs to move that runner on 2nd base with nobody out forward.

Someone needs to lace that ball into the OF with a runner on third and one out. 

OPS is a nice stat but there is a lot of baseball that happens away from it. Someone needs to get on base when those OPS guys step up to the plate and do that OPS thing. 

Luis Arraez is a plus to any team. Very hard to find type talent... Santana is doing alright but there are a lot of players doing just as alright or better. Not many... if any... do what Luis Arraez does better. His strikeout rates are incredible. 

[wabene]

Carlos had his second best season by OPS+ at 138 in his first season with the Twins (by one point). He started slow and his OPS with 2 outs and runners in scoring position was .506 in 48 plate appearances. Many complained that he was overrated/not clutch. His other clutch stats that year were pretty good to very good, but I think those 48 plate appearances caught people's eye. This season he is again on pace for his second best by OPS+ at 150, but this time much closer to his best season ever in which he had an OPS+ of 155. His OPS with 2 outs and runners in scoring position is .817 and his slash line in a tie game is .305    .406    .610    1.016. Not too shabby. This year his clutch performance across the board is very good and you are witnessing all that Carlos Correa can bring to a team. I'm satisfied.

[tony&rodney]

Perceptions are realities for many people and these are often shaped by media. Correa may be seen as a villain by fans around the country. He is booed often even if roughly 90% of those vociferous followers have zero idea why they are vocalizing feelings they cannot explain.

Both Correa and Arraez are excellent baseball players but should never be compared because of their vast differences. Similarly, Arraez cannot be compared to either Gwynn or Carew.

An analogy for the wider public not really TD ... Chicago draws widespread scorn for violent crime and does have more problems than a person would want anyone ever to have within a city. However, depending on what resource one uses, Chicago comes in at 20th (or better) statistically for violent crime among larger cities in the United States and even better if one includes all cities. Still, Chicago is quite frequently cited as an example for this and that. Why? Well, one has to at least wonder about the agenda of those parroting false ideas.

Thus Correa gets nailed by strained vocal cords heaping abuse by throngs of angry people who don't actually have any idea why they are hating C4. Perception. Arraez is lovable and we (most of us) enjoyed his at bats. I get the idea to support Correa and agree with the general principal that Arraez has a more limited value than many other players, but I'm not sure that it is necessary to identify one as overrated.

FWIW, I'm not from Chicago, have never lived or worked there, and prefer the silence of isolation in the woods. I have been to Chicago though, walked and biked miles through the city, and gone to games at Wrigley and to Comiskey (and its subsequent namesakes).

[Joe Schmitt]

I'm wondering what "the standard" is for Correa?  Why isn't "the standard" "produce enough WAR such that you overperform your contract"?  Which he is definitely on pace to do.

And yes, I know WAR is a flawed stat. (All stats are flawed.) But if anything, doesn't that undersell Correa given his leadership and intangibles?

[Rod Carews Birthday]

I’m in agreement.  I’m also a big Arraez fan.  He’s a really good player, but I think the public perception of him is far greater than what he provides on the field by both the general public and nostalgic Twins fans.  Would he be useful on most any team?  Of course he would, but that doesn’t mean he’s not overrated.   Comparing him to Tony Gwynn and Rod Carew is unfair to him, and also unrealistic.  Just be realistic about who he is as a player and enjoy what he has to provide.

[saviking]

I have been a vocal critic of Correa in the past. It's not Correa, but the money we are paying him. At the end of last year, I said I would hold my tongue this year for at least the first two months. 

And I'm still gladly holding it. This is what a 35-million-dollar player is supposed to look like!

[BH67]

25 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Perceptions are realities for many people and these are often shaped by media. Correa may be seen as a villain by fans around the country. He is booed often even if roughly 90% of those vociferous followers have zero idea why they are vocalizing feelings they cannot explain.

Anyone who benefitted from the pounding of garbage cans in Houston will be booed vociferously elsewhere, especially a #1 overall draft pick. Surely many Viking fans remember Bountygate whenever they see a Saints uniform all these years later.

[tony&rodney]

5 minutes ago, BH67 said:

Anyone who benefitted from the pounding of garbage cans in Houston will be booed vociferously elsewhere, especially a #1 overall draft pick. Surely many Viking fans remember Bountygate whenever they see a Saints uniform all these years later.

Not replaying the garbage can, but several times in the last couple of years I have been present when people were booing Correa and heard individuals say, "Why are we booing him?"

Not many people actually are knowledgable. Ask someone next time.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

Arraez has recently been compared to Gwynn and Carew - I would take them on my team too.

I could compare them. As in, Luis Arraez is clearly not as good as Tony Gwynn or Rod Carew. Or, Luis Arraez plays baseball like 38-year-old Tony Gwynn.

Arraez is a 1-tool player, a slow DH who only hits singles. If he could play defense he'd be valuable but he's been awful. He's the worst 2B in baseball in Outs Above Average (-8). Santana, for comparison, is tied with Bryce Harper for #1 among 1B (+6).

[BH67]

2 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Not replaying the garbage can, but several times in the last couple of years I have been present when people were booing Correa and heard individuals say, "Why are we booing him?"

Not many people actually are knowledgable. Ask someone next time.

Plenty still are, despite the bandwagon behavior.

[Vanimal46]

2 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

That's right. I'm here to say that Luis Arráez is in fact the most overrated player in baseball,

I too like to go fishing after it rains. The fish are biting this morning.

 

[Trov]

Using fan voting for all-star to decide how someone is rated is a terrible way to determine over or underrated.  I remember one year KC had like 7 players leading in fan voting despite some of them being low .200 hitters.  The vote had nothing to do with the players ability or how fans view them.  CC will have lower votes because for better or worse he is the face of the Astros cheating team.  He still gets booed most places he goes. 

It is generally hard to talk about if a player is over or underrated, even more so now, because just as article points out, different people rate based on different things.  I do not feel Arraez is overrated by many because he does not get talked about as an MVP, got a few down ballot votes last couple of years but last year he had .861 OPS, not MVP but not bad either.  Either way, it is not like people are talking about how great his defense is or how he is the best overall player in the game.  

For me, an overrated player is where the talk does not fit the perception overall.  Sometimes it is they live off the past performances, but more often for me, it is their defense is lauded when it is not backed up by actual output. If people where saying Arraez was a great defender I would agree he would be very overrated.  However, the talk on him is he is one of the best hitters in the game, which he is, his batting average reflects that.  He hits and gets on, with limited extra base hits.  He gets and extra base hit in about once every 4 to 5 hits.  

I think where some talked about CC being overrated, was he was talked about after 2021 being best defending SS in game, but then that dropped off a ton.  Also, last year he had poor offense season for most part. This year he is having huge bounce back on both sides in my opinion, most likely because his foot is healthy. 

[cooldude]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

OPS is a nice stat but there is a lot of baseball that happens away from it. Someone needs to get on base when those OPS guys step up to the plate and do that OPS thing. 

OPS is literally about getting on base. It stands for "on-base plus slugging." 

[Doctor Gast]

IMO that Athletic article was ridiculous. An article based on a very limited survey to drive down Jazz Chisholm Jr.'s trade value & Correa was collateral damage.

If you are evaluating Arraez's hitting, I'm afraid you are barking up the wrong tree. OPS is OK but it isn't an end-all stat. Getting on base, moving players up, getting a clutch hit are important, not striking out in clutch situations is important. What's not important is hitting a bunch of HRs when you don't need them that drive up OPS & striking out in clutch situations, is not important. I'd rather have a lineup filled with Arraez type hitters than with line-up filled with higher OPS Santana type hitters.

 Arraez is fine for a 1Bman but if you are talking about 2B defense, Arraez is terrible. And I'd agree with you that people tend to over-look that because of his hitting. Marte is by far a better 2Bman than Arraez & should get the nod over him.

[Jocko87]

I been saying it.

The Twins declared it, the Marlins confirmed it and the Padres are figuring it out. The Padres are a much better fit but he's just a tough player to roster.

FWIW, I had the same opinion on Julien until he showed amazing improvements with the glove. Jury still out though. One tool players can never be true regulars, no matter how good the one tool is.

As for the Correa part, he's never been fully represented by his stat line. I have a good friend who is an Astros season ticket holder. When Correa first signed I texted him something like "does this mean I have to like Correa now?" He said "dude you are going to love him". He was correct. My apologies sir, for I was unfamiliar with your game.

When you watch him everyday you see the whole package. If you just check the B-ref page you would miss so many things. The plantar fasitis wouldn't be well represented either.

[David Maro]

Baseball is in the HR is the end all be all era.Well guess what you don't get to hit multiple run HR without runners on base and Arraez gives you that.With C4 this year,he is finally playing to his potential and contract.

[MMMordabito]

Heheh ... Carlos Correa is the only Twins player on that entire all-star board and at the bottom.  

I guess people aren't paying attention to the in-game plugs about voting Twins to the All-Star game.  Oh wait.

Hey Joe, I heard you and your media buddies shot your fanbase down. You shot 'em down to the ground.

[jmlease1]

13 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

If you are evaluating Arraez's hitting, I'm afraid you are barking up the wrong tree. OPS is OK but it isn't an end-all stat. Getting on base, moving players up, getting a clutch hit are important, not striking out in clutch situations is important. What's not important is hitting a bunch of HRs when you don't need them that drive up OPS & striking out in clutch situations, is not important. I'd rather have a lineup filled with Arraez type hitters than with line-up filled with higher OPS Santana type hitters.

Getting on base is literally the first component of OPS. And which is more important, moving a runner up, or scoring the runner?

The "clutch" ideas aren't really borne out except in people's generally faulty memories. We remember big, important moments when a player got the job done at times and forget about the others. But time after time it's been shown that it's really more just a matter of a player being very good and getting opportunities rather than them actually performing better in the clutch.

Having a lineup full of Arraez-type players might be more ascetically pleasing, but it won't be more successful or score runs over a season than one filled with ones with a higher overall OPS but lower batting averages. The most important skill for a hitter is avoiding outs. There's an advantage in doing it with hits over walks in that you can get extra bases, but that's also mitigated partially by the fact that you also get double-plays. But hitting for power also matters. It's far more efficient to move a runner over with a double than a groundout. It's easier to score 2 runs with a walk and a homer than by stringing together 3-4 singles before making 3 outs. It just is. If you have a lineup made up of Carlos Santana types who have OPSs that are 10-20 pts up on your theoretical Aaraez lineup, you will score a lot more runs.

Correa being called overrated is a legacy of the Houston scandal I'm sure, but it's certainly silly. He proved he didn't need the "help" to be incredibly successful after the system was found out and dismantled, and proved it when he joined the Twins and was excellent for us in his first season. He's crushing it this year. And it's hardly his fault that MLB changed the rules so he can't play farther back to compensate for his poor foot speed and capitalize on his great arm. But even with that, he's a quality SS with an elite bat.

[Craig Arko]

In some ways, because of injuries and lack of team success, an argument could be made that Trout is the most overrated player in baseball.

I’m not going to make that argument. 

[Parfigliano]

2 hours ago, Andrew Bryz-Gornia said:

The Twins traded Arraez because they viewed him as a 1B-only singles hitter. The Marlins traded him because they're going nowhere, but I saw a summary of Arraez around the time of the Marlins/Padres trade that makes tons of sense, which Nick hinted at. Arraez is exceptional at one skill (contact), and it's an important skill, but he becomes worthless when that skill disappears. No team wants to be holding this hot potato when his bat-to-ball skills deteriorate. It's like Ben Revere, who was a 2-win player when hitting .300 but became replacement-level when it dipped down to .275. (DRS views him as a bad defender, just like Arraez.) Once Revere stopped hitting at his previous levels, he was out of the majors. 

I had totally forgotten about Revere

[roger]

Interesting article, Nick.  Certainly brought out the comments, eh?

Count me among those who would love having Arraez on my team.  Yes, he is limited to getting on first base.  With all the numbers around today, found it interesting that no one mentioned how many runs he scores.  I don't know, but gotta believe a guy who gets on base as much as he scores a lot of 'em.  And last I heard, runs is what wins games.

But talking about being great and/or overrated got me thinking about what I read on the front page of today's Strib.  At the age of 93, Willie Mays left our world yesterday.  Was thinking over my coffee about whether or not he was the greatest players, ever.  Am old enough that I recall seeing him play.  Only got to one Braves game each year and there weren't any regular games on tv.  Maybe it was while watching an all-star game.  Maybe one of those games at County Stadium, just can't remember.  But he was flat out amazing.

Personally, I don't know how you can compare Mays to say, Aaron, Mantle, Banks, Ruth, Williams, Gehrig, etc., to determine who was the greatest of all time.  Suffice to say Mays was one hell of a player.  As for your subject today, Correa is an excellent ballplayer and not overrated.  At least in my opinion.  Is he the best player in baseball?  Probably not.  But sure as heck one of them.  Neither is Arraez, however, I don't think of him as one of the best in today's game.

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, BH67 said:

Anyone who benefitted from the pounding of garbage cans in Houston will be booed vociferously elsewhere, especially a #1 overall draft pick. Surely many Viking fans remember Bountygate whenever they see a Saints uniform all these years later.

I do.  Still pissed.  Coaches and players involved should have been lifetime banned from league.  Paying and recieving payment to injure is unacceptable.