Let's Talk About Who's Actually the Most Overrated Player in MLB

[Road trip]

3 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

I'll trade Carlos Santana for him!!!

That's too easy.  Unfortunately, after the last few starts I might trade Pablo to get Arraez back. (And I surely do hope I'm not still saying that at the end of the year)

[nicksaviking]

I do feel that WAR is overrated, but I also feel Arraez is overrated, so me and WAR are in agreement here.

Arraez is a really good hitter, but you have to do more than just stand on first base to be an elite player.

As for Correa, he's one of only two Twins hitters who should never come off the field so based on his production, I'm not sure why anyone would complain about him other than the team's accountant.

[Jocko87]

17 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I do feel that WAR is overrated, but I also feel Arraez is overrated, so me and WAR are in agreement here.

Arraez is a really good hitter, but you have to do more than just stand on first base to be an elite player.

As for Correa, he's one of only two Twins hitters who should never come off the field so based on his production, I'm not sure why anyone would complain about him other than the team's accountant.

The accountant is probably good with it too, they understand the cost of having to buy players that fill other players deficiencies.

If I had a dollar for every time I had to explain why we needed another tool or piece of equipment.... We just bought a whosit, doesn't it do that?  No, that's the whatsit, it's only for Falcons and Hawkers. (The only common tool between Hawkers and Falcons is the Phillips screwdriver and a ballpoint pen)

So this Correa guy, he just does everything? Why don't we just buy more of those?  

[stringer bell]

I made some similar comments about Arráez in this thread--https://twinsdaily.com/forums/topic/67393-how-valuable-is-a-unicorn/#comment-1403627

I think, at a much younger age, he has become what Carew and Gwynn became--singles hitters who played a corner and didn't have much power. That said, in today's game, Luis Arráez stands out for his bat-to-ball skills and he might win a whole bunch of batting titles.

It takes a lot of singles to win games. I also noted that Arráez' walk rate is down considerably. His overall OBP is still good, but not elite (28th in MLB). On the basis of his play this year, he shouldn't be an All-Star.

Finally, I'm reading between the lines a bit, but the Twins traded Arráez after he didn't settle and went through the arbitration process. The Marlins also went through the process with him and he is making over $10M, so there seems to be  a disconnect between what Luis thinks he's worth and what front offices are willing to pay him. The surest two ways to up the chances of being traded are to be a union rep or take the club to arbitration.

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, roger said:

Interesting article, Nick.  Certainly brought out the comments, eh?

Count me among those who would love having Arraez on my team.  Yes, he is limited to getting on first base.  With all the numbers around today, found it interesting that no one mentioned how many runs he scores.  I don't know, but gotta believe a guy who gets on base as much as he scores a lot of 'em.  And last I heard, runs is what wins games.

But talking about being great and/or overrated got me thinking about what I read on the front page of today's Strib.  At the age of 93, Willie Mays left our world yesterday.  Was thinking over my coffee about whether or not he was the greatest players, ever.  Am old enough that I recall seeing him play.  Only got to one Braves game each year and there weren't any regular games on tv.  Maybe it was while watching an all-star game.  Maybe one of those games at County Stadium, just can't remember.  But he was flat out amazing.

Personally, I don't know how you can compare Mays to say, Aaron, Mantle, Banks, Ruth, Williams, Gehrig, etc., to determine who was the greatest of all time.  Suffice to say Mays was one hell of a player.  As for your subject today, Correa is an excellent ballplayer and not overrated.  At least in my opinion.  Is he the best player in baseball?  Probably not.  But sure as heck one of them.  Neither is Arraez, however, I don't think of him as one of the best in today's game.

FYI, Luis Arraez has scored 41 runs this year. That is 33rd in baseball. He has stepped to the plate 327 times. That is 11th in baseball. Make what you will of those stats.

[Riverbrian]

2 hours ago, cooldude said:

OPS is literally about getting on base. It stands for "on-base plus slugging." 

OPS is literally 50% about getting on base. 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

5 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

In the first round of MLB All-Star voting, released a few days ago, Correa ranked 10th among MLB shortstops. Tenth! For a name with that recognition level, who was having a good season even before the current torrid streak got underway, that is simply wild. 

It's actually worse than that -- Correa was 10th among AL shortstops, not even all of MLB, in the first all-star vote update. Cleveland's Rocchio had more than double Correa's vote total. I wonder if this is impacted by Comcast/Midco dropping Bally Sports, limiting the Twins get-out-the-vote power. (It doesn't look like Comcast operates much in Cleveland?)

Pre-hot streak, 10th in MLB might have been about right. Through June 5th, Correa's 111 wRC+ ranked 12th among "primary" MLB shortstops with 170+ PA per Fangraphs.

[jmlease1]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

I do feel that WAR is overrated, but I also feel Arraez is overrated, so me and WAR are in agreement here.

WAR is a useful metric. It does a reasonable job of looking at the totality of a player (hitting, baserunning, defense, the position they play, etc) and putting it into a stat that is fairly easy for people to understand so you can compare the value of wildly different players and do it across eras, which is hard. It's not the end-all be-all but one thing it does is ignore the "halo effect" of narratives around a player who is amazing at one cool thing. Arraez is one of the absolute best bat to ball players in MLB today and he consistently hits for high average. But WAR doesn't give you extra credit for being the best at one thing, and will still deficit you for being bad at others (like not hitting for power, playing poor defense, etc).

I love Arraez, and he's a useful player with an increasingly unique skill set that's probably more valuable in the playoffs than in the regular season. But he needs to really hit a ton of those singles, especially when he's not taking walks and poking out the occasional homer.

WAR does a good job of showing fairly who Correa is, I think. An elite hitter with good but no longer great defense at a premium position. He's not just playing like an all-star, he's playing more like an MVP. And that's what healthy Carlos Correa does. Hopefully LEN3 is a little embarrassed by his recent bad C4 take.

[Beast]

Correa likely denied LaVelle some preferential treatment that he was looking for in the way of an exclusive piece or inside information.

I feel that a solid chunk of Correa’s reputation has been built on his incredible postseason performances, not necessarily his career regular season numbers.

Frankly, I don’t care much about what some bloated contract schlubs from the Mets or Padres think about Correa.  I know he’s someone that can contribute bigly in getting this team over the hump in the postseason (if ownership and the FO were to pull their weight).

There are a lot of great young shortstops right now, in addition to some of veterans that are still great.  I’m not overly concerned about where he ranks.  When the chips are down and it’s playoff time, Correa has a track record that’s one of the best in the history of the game.  Enough said.  We’ll see if Bobby Witt and the like can nut up in the playoffs at some point.  Until then, who cares.

And you can’t tell me the team around him has nothing to do with this perception.  I guarantee those rankings look different if he was the SS for the Yankees or Dodgers.

[roger]

48 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

FYI, Luis Arraez has scored 41 runs this year. That is 33rd in baseball. He has stepped to the plate 327 times. That is 11th in baseball. Make what you will of those stats.

Considering there are what, 400 some position players the diffence between 33rd and 11th is minor.  At least to me.  Both are near the top.  Thanks chpettit19. 

[chpettit19]

13 minutes ago, roger said:

Considering there are what, 400 some position players the diffence between 33rd and 11th is minor.  At least to me.  Both are near the top.  Thanks chpettit19. 

Deeper look: Of 199 players with at least 200 PAs, he ranks 51st in runs per game and 82nd in runs per plate appearance.

Steven Kwan, similar player, but significantly faster, leads in both runs per game and runs per PA. I'd say Luis is not scoring runs at the rate one would hope based on his ability to get to 1st base frequently (he's 35th in OBP in the same sample group). He's not fast so he struggles to go first to third, first to home, and 2nd to home. I don't think you should point to his run scoring acumen as evidence of him being super valuable.

[Mike Sixel]

I can't imagine caring what other people think about how a player rates. It's so much more fun to just watch / listen to / enjoy the games. 

[bean5302]

I don't know who the most overrated player is in baseball, but Luis Arraez probably isn't him. Arraez's wRC+ 113 is coming with a career worst ISO at the moment, and it's possible that could be the trend now for him, but his max exit velocity is at a career high so it's not like his raw power has evaporated. Just have to wait and see for a player who has typically been worse in the 2nd half if the trend has swapped.

Worth noting is Arraez hasn't been a singles hitter any more than Joe Mauer was a singles hitter. Arraez had 43 extra base hits last year, where he ranked as the 16th highest wRC+ of any qualified hitter in MLB, and 40 the year prior where he ranked 30th in MLB at the plate.

In terms of how he was valued around the league, Arraez didn't bring back elite prospects. An org #5, #10, #15 type even with the Marlins covering all but a tiny portion his salary ($10.0MM). Arraez is certainly a player teams want on their roster, but it didn't take a big haul to get him.

[Mike Sixel]

4 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Deeper look: Of 199 players with at least 200 PAs, he ranks 51st in runs per game and 82nd in runs per plate appearance.

Steven Kwan, similar player, but significantly faster, leads in both runs per game and runs per PA. I'd say Luis is not scoring runs at the rate one would hope based on his ability to get to 1st base frequently (he's 35th in OBP in the same sample group). He's not fast so he struggles to go first to third, first to home, and 2nd to home. I don't think you should point to his run scoring acumen as evidence of him being super valuable.

Runs scored is so much about other hitters (esp for Arraez).....I'm not sure how to feel about this...

[dberthia]

I'd take Arraez over Lopez at this point

[chpettit19]

48 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Runs scored is so much about other hitters (esp for Arraez).....I'm not sure how to feel about this...

Runs and RBI aren't stats I ever use to define how good or bad an individual player is. Just providing info for the other poster who suggested Arraez may be more valuable cuz he scores more cuz he's on more. He doesn't really score more, though. But I certainly wouldn't use that to say he isn't good. I'd take him on my team any day.

But I do think it demonstrates why being a singles hitter isn't just automatically super valuable if you're slow. I love Arraez, but there's a reason guys like him aren't considered as valuable as guys with a lower BA but higher slugging.

[Kummel]

Some of this is about the larger picture in baseball today.   The league, teams, individual players routinely overvalue home run production.  When too many players on a team swing for the fences, offense suffers.  Not enough runners on base, and those runners often stranded.

Arraez is the refreshing antidote to that situation.  I appreciate that he does his thing (making contact), revels in it, does it extremely well.  he is routinely over- or under-valued, in part it's this larger context that is shaping responses to him as an individual player.

 

 

 

[jkcarew]

Love this article.

Arraez is very good and his skills are so fun and refreshing in the modern game. He’s not Carew and he’s not Gwynn. those guys were among the league leaders in OPS and wRC year after year with tons of XBH and SB. This year in particular Arraez is overrated on the basis of all-star voting…but the most overrated player in the game? I’d just say, he’s a fan and media favorite…and probably always will be, simply because he’s so refreshingly different in a league that is becoming more and more homoginized in terms of how players look,  swing, and play.

[KirbyDome89]

4 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

I too like to go fishing after it rains. The fish are biting this morning.

 

Low tier at that. My favorite part was a difference of +/- 3 runs meaning anything in the average vs. OPS battle. Fan voting for the AS game being linked to a players poll was a nice touch as well.   

[Jocko87]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

 

But I do think it demonstrates why being a singles hitter isn't just automatically super valuable if you're slow. I love Arraez, but there's a reason guys like him aren't considered as valuable as guys with a lower BA but higher slugging.

The true one tool player is both rare and tough to fit on a roster.  The hit tool is really the only single tool that you can get to the bigs with and it's quite limiting when you get there.  He is an incredibly interesting player that is one tool short of being a superstar.  Love him as a player also but his arbitration and contracts are going to be very interesting.

Speedy Arraez would be a 6 WAR player, every year.  He could play functional left field, hit .380 and pile up value on the bases.  More slug with more hustle doubles and triples. Like a budget Ichiro, minus the arm.  That's just one additional tool that he doesn't have.

Powerful Arraez fits in any lineup and has plenty of suitors with the universal DH. A 30 HR version of Arraez with the other hit tools intact is a $150-200m player.  Budget Soto? Another additional tool he doesn't have.

Middle infield Arraez (say, OAA break even at shortstop) is a darn fine player that also fits every roster.  Would be playable at 4 spots and not a total liability with no speed. Also a tool he doesn't have.

As he is, he's not a fit for a small market team as a high priced player.  The Twins and Marlins just can't pay that much for no power, no defense, high average player.  They can justify spending on a Correa because he does everything.

[chpettit19]

4 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

The true one tool player is both rare and tough to fit on a roster.  The hit tool is really the only single tool that you can get to the bigs with and it's quite limiting when you get there.  He is an incredibly interesting player that is one tool short of being a superstar.  Love him as a player also but his arbitration and contracts are going to be very interesting.

Speedy Arraez would be a 6 WAR player, every year.  He could play functional left field, hit .380 and pile up value on the bases.  More slug with more hustle doubles and triples. Like a budget Ichiro, minus the arm.  That's just one additional tool that he doesn't have.

Powerful Arraez fits in any lineup and has plenty of suitors with the universal DH. A 30 HR version of Arraez with the other hit tools intact is a $150-200m player.  Budget Soto? Another additional tool he doesn't have.

Middle infield Arraez (say, OAA break even at shortstop) is a darn fine player that also fits every roster.  Would be playable at 4 spots and not a total liability with no speed. Also a tool he doesn't have.

As he is, he's not a fit for a small market team as a high priced player.  The Twins and Marlins just can't pay that much for no power, no defense, high average player.  They can justify spending on a Correa because he does everything.

I'm also fascinated to see where his contracts go from here. Interested to see if San Diego even tenders him an arb deal. Will be really telling about what the league thinks about him and that 1 tool when we see what he makes next year and moving forward.

[MGX]

If Correa & Arraez are over rated the Twins need a few more over rated (guys who can hit) players on our roster.

 

[wabene]

This is a good discussion here and we have an appearance of Otto Von Ballpark! Good times.

[Loops]

Bases loaded. Ninth inning. Down by one. I would want Arraez at bat every time.

[LanceJS]

Two thoughts on this. One - did those who feel Correa is “overrated” forget he played on one good foot last year? Two, if Arraez doesn’t have much production because he hits mostly singles, it sounds much like the criticism leveled at Ichiro Suzuki. Last I heard, Ichiro is going to be a first ballot Hall of Famer. I guess hitting singles can be a good thing. 

[stringer bell]

12 minutes ago, LanceJS said:

Two thoughts on this. One - did those who feel Correa is “overrated” forget he played on one good foot last year? Two, if Arraez doesn’t have much production because he hits mostly singles, it sounds much like the criticism leveled at Ichiro Suzuki. Last I heard, Ichiro is going to be a first ballot Hall of Famer. I guess hitting singles can be a good thing. 

Ichiro mostly hit singles, but was a Gold Glove outfielder with a great arm. He was also a force on the base paths. Not an apt comp for Arráez. 

[jmlease1]

41 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Ichiro mostly hit singles, but was a Gold Glove outfielder with a great arm. He was also a force on the base paths. Not an apt comp for Arráez. 

prime Ichiro also was good for 6-8 triples a season and put up SLG of .425 or better (which is also the mark where you see Arraez getting that OPS+ over 120 and being a more impactful player). But 100% correct: Ichiro wasn't just a singles hitter who did nothing else.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, LanceJS said:

Two thoughts on this. One - did those who feel Correa is “overrated” forget he played on one good foot last year? Two, if Arraez doesn’t have much production because he hits mostly singles, it sounds much like the criticism leveled at Ichiro Suzuki. Last I heard, Ichiro is going to be a first ballot Hall of Famer. I guess hitting singles can be a good thing. 

Ichiro was a gold glove right fielder, stole 509 bases and hit 96 triples. Not close to the same thing.

[Danchat]

I do think OPS is a bit overrated with how much it rewards power compared to outs - speaking of Ichiro, he had only a .757 OPS. Arraez has a weird profile with poor speed and pedestrian fielding, but I will take a guy who can hit .320 with .380 OBP any day in my lineup. I wouldn't think about filling a lineup with more players built like him, but with the DH being universal, he is pretty good compared to what many teams are running out at DH. Take into account his hitting tool in clutch situations and ability to take more pitches than the average batter, and I think the modern stats we use underrate him.

[cooldude]

On 6/19/2024 at 12:00 PM, Riverbrian said:

OPS is literally 50% about getting on base. 

 

Exactly. I didn't say it was *only* about getting on base. I was just pointing out that when you said "Someone needs to get on base when those OPS guys step up to the plate and do that OPS thing," it didn't make sense. You're implying that someone with a high OPS doesn't get on base, when they obviously do. That's how you get a high OPS. Let's not pretend that OPS is some one-dimensional stat. Its purpose is to provide a more holistic view of offense. Higher OPS = better all-around hitter.