Let's Talk About Who's Actually the Most Overrated Player in MLB

[Riverbrian]

21 minutes ago, cooldude said:

Exactly. I didn't say it was *only* about getting on base. I was just pointing out that when you said "Someone needs to get on base when those OPS guys step up to the plate and do that OPS thing," it didn't make sense. You're implying that someone with a high OPS doesn't get on base, when they obviously do. That's how you get a high OPS. Let's not pretend that OPS is some one-dimensional stat. Its purpose is to provide a more holistic view of offense. Higher OPS = better all-around hitter.

Your implying what I'm implying. I'm not pretending that OPS is some one-dimensional stat. 

I understand how OBP is calculated

I understand how SLG is calculated

I understand how OPS is calculated using OBP and SLG. 

Arraez needs to walk a bunch more if he wants his OBP to rise enough to cover for his low slugging numbers and that is nearly impossible to do enough to cover for slugging.  

There are currently 5 MLB qualified hitters with an OBP over .400. There are currently 88 MLB qualified hitters with a Slugging Percentage over .400

If you don't slug... it's harder to carry a high OPS. It's a slugging dominant stat despite it's 50/50 calculation. 

 

 

 

 

[cooldude]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

Your implying what I'm implying. I'm not pretending that OPS is some one-dimensional stat. 

I understand how OBP is calculated

I understand how SLG is calculated

I understand how OPS is calculated using OBP and SLG. 

Arraez needs to walk a bunch more if he wants his OBP to rise enough to cover for his low slugging numbers and that is nearly impossible to do enough to cover for slugging.  

There are currently 5 MLB qualified hitters with an OBP over .400. There are currently 88 MLB qualified hitters with a Slugging Percentage over .400

If you don't slug... it's harder to carry a high OPS. It's a slugging dominant stat despite it's 50/50 calculation. 

 

 

 

 

Okay, my bad. When I read your comment . . .

"OPS is a nice stat but there is a lot of baseball that happens away from it. Someone needs to get on base when those OPS guys step up to the plate and do that OPS thing."

. . . I read it as a criticism of OPS because you feel that "a lot of baseball" is not measured by it—with your example being that "someone" needs to get on base (as if "those OPS guys" don't). If that wasn't what you meant, cool.

I'm no new-stats evangelist, but I do think OPS does a pretty good job of showing the big picture of a hitter's production, and I think it does a good job of showing why someone like Arraez is overrated. Heck, *I* overrate him. I love watching him hit. I miss having him on the Twins. I miss that kind of baseball--balls in play, lots of opportunities for the defense, when striking out was considered a sin, etc. I think a lot of us on this board feel the same way, and Arraez is a refreshing reminder of that older, more exciting style of baseball. But in terms of pure production, if you want to give your team the best chance to win, you generally want guys with higher OPS. Period. That's what I was reacting to in your comment. I don't buy that an offense needs this mix of high-OPS guys and some other kind of guys who have low OPS but contribute by hitting the other way or laying down awesome sacrifice bunts or hitting .320 with no power and no walks. 

[Jocko87]

20 hours ago, Danchat said:

I do think OPS is a bit overrated with how much it rewards power compared to outs - speaking of Ichiro, he had only a .757 OPS. Arraez has a weird profile with poor speed and pedestrian fielding, but I will take a guy who can hit .320 with .380 OBP any day in my lineup. I wouldn't think about filling a lineup with more players built like him, but with the DH being universal, he is pretty good compared to what many teams are running out at DH. Take into account his hitting tool in clutch situations and ability to take more pitches than the average batter, and I think the modern stats we use underrate him.

The problem is that when you compare him to DH only players, he falls short. Yes, his bat plays there but the Schwarbers, Stantons, and JD Martinez types also have the clutch hit tool with the ability to end a game at any time.

A more age appropriate comp might be Yordan Alvarez. Again, different league and class of hitter.

He's a tough fit.

[Riverbrian]

38 minutes ago, cooldude said:

Okay, my bad. When I read your comment . . .

"OPS is a nice stat but there is a lot of baseball that happens away from it. Someone needs to get on base when those OPS guys step up to the plate and do that OPS thing."

. . . I read it as a criticism of OPS because you feel that "a lot of baseball" is not measured by it—with your example being that "someone" needs to get on base (as if "those OPS guys" don't). If that wasn't what you meant, cool.

I'm no new-stats evangelist, but I do think OPS does a pretty good job of showing the big picture of a hitter's production, and I think it does a good job of showing why someone like Arraez is overrated. Heck, *I* overrate him. I love watching him hit. I miss having him on the Twins. I miss that kind of baseball--balls in play, lots of opportunities for the defense, when striking out was considered a sin, etc. I think a lot of us on this board feel the same way, and Arraez is a refreshing reminder of that older, more exciting style of baseball. But in terms of pure production, if you want to give your team the best chance to win, you generally want guys with higher OPS. Period. That's what I was reacting to in your comment. I don't buy that an offense needs this mix of high-OPS guys and some other kind of guys who have low OPS but contribute by hitting the other way or laying down awesome sacrifice bunts or hitting .320 with no power and no walks. 

I have a tendency of typing more words than necessary. It makes me colorful and confusing at the same time. 😉 

I use OPS as a down and dirty stat all the time to make points about players I believe in and players I don't believe in. It's a nice stat... for the majority but it isn't right for the extreme players on the fringes and therefore I'm willing to break away from it from time to time. 

The Fringes? Gallo for instance... In the case of Joey... I don't care how high his OPS is. I don't want that low batting average and strikeout rate. I want the feeling that the player is actually capable of driving that runner in from third with less than one out. Somehow Someway. We can put a number on the board.   

In the case of Arraez... I don't care how low his OPS is. If there is a runner on third and less than one out and I can choose any hitter to send up to the plate. I'll take Arraez almost every time.

If you have a Gallo... He is much more effective if he has Arraez hitting in front of him because the two run shot is better than the solo. That's what I meant by somebody has to get on base so the OPS guys can OPS. Should have said... SLG guy can SLG. 

I believe in OPS but it's not going to lead you to Arraez. It'll lead you to Gallo instead and I just can't endorse that sort of behavior.

There will always be a place on my team for Luis.   

[KirbyDome89]

3 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

The problem is that when you compare him to DH only players, he falls short. Yes, his bat plays there but the Schwarbers, Stantons, and JD Martinez types also have the clutch hit tool with the ability to end a game at any time.

A more age appropriate comp might be Yordan Alvarez. Again, different league and class of hitter.

He's a tough fit.

There's no rule that your DH needs to be the most extreme version of the three true outcomes. 

The notion that it's tough to fit a bat like Arraez into a lineup is pretty funny to me. 

[ashbury]

3 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

 

Never mind.

[Jocko87]

1 hour ago, KirbyDome89 said:

There's no rule that your DH needs to be the most extreme version of the three true outcomes. 

The notion that it's tough to fit a bat like Arraez into a lineup is pretty funny to me. 

Sorry, tough roster fit, not lineup. Luis Arraez could be comfortably written into any lineup in the game. Once. After a few weeks, the fits get harder.

Your DH can be whoever you want. Many teams choose not to have a true DH only bat because of the flexibility of a precious roster spot, especially now that they are choosing the extra pitcher most of the time. If Arraez is truly a bat only player (and at least two teams think he is) then he has to be compared to the JD Martinez, Jim Thome, Nelson Cruz type players. Bat only players.

As a bat only player, most teams composite DH of rotating outfielders and resting stars is going to outperform Arraez over the course of a season. Measure it however you like.

One at bat? Luis Arraez is right up there in good choices but a tier below a Nelly Cruz, who also takes a very high level at bat but can do massive damage additionally. Considering Arraez runs about as well as retired Nelly Cruz, you might need a runner on your roster too.

[Doctor Wu]

On 6/19/2024 at 8:04 PM, Riverbrian said:

Someone needs to move that runner on 2nd base with nobody out forward.

Someone needs to lace that ball into the OF with a runner on third and one out. 

OPS is a nice stat but there is a lot of baseball that happens away from it. Someone needs to get on base when those OPS guys step up to the plate and do that OPS thing. 

Luis Arraez is a plus to any team. Very hard to find type talent... Santana is doing alright but there are a lot of players doing just as alright or better. Not many... if any... do what Luis Arraez does better. His strikeout rates are incredible. 

There are other players on the Padres that are overrated, but not Arraez.

[Riverbrian]

10 minutes ago, Doctor Wu said:

There are other players on the Padres that are overrated, but not Arraez.

Not the Padres... impossible... they were the shining example for every small market team to follow. 

[stringer bell]

I agree that OPS is a pretty simple down-and-dirty way to look at offensive production. It isn't perfect, but no stat is IMHO. OPS probably underrates guys who get on base, but this year because of his declining walk rate, Arráez isn't elite. Luis' OBP is .351 which is lower than Willi Castro. 

The low slugging negates most of the good OBP and then we can look at defensive deficiencies and base running, neither of which make Arráez look like a better player. Not to pile on, but he's grounded into 13 double plays this season, which roughly projects to 30 in a season. 

So far, Arráez hasn't missed significant time with injuries, so in conjunction with hitting at the top of the lineup he is racking up counting stats, including leading the league in hits. 

Arráez is a unique and interesting player, but he isn't as big a difference maker as many on his current team or his first team. If he is elected an All-Star, good for him, but that doesn't make him a more valuable player.

[Riverbrian]

14 hours ago, ashbury said:

18 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

 

Never mind.

I never said that. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Sure, I’ll take the bait. 

In terms of bang for buck, which infield combination sounds best right about now:

• $ 44 million, Correa/Arraez
• $ 37 million, Correa/Castro
• $ 12 million, Lewis/Arraez
• $   4 million, Lewis/Castro

A little something for both sides there, I hope.