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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. I don't doubt that teams are in Berrios and he would be an upgrade for them -- that could be said for just about any contender, every year! He's a good pitcher. I'm just not sure those NL West teams see him as enough of a "disrupter" in their present circumstances to pay a premium to keep Berrios away from their competitors. They may still pay a lot for him -- he would be the next best SP available after Scherzer -- but I'm not sure they'd pay more than other teams, or if the overall market will bear enough for the Twins to part with him.
  2. Welcome to the site! No one thinks Buxton was a superstar in the first several years of his career -- he was downright terrible at times. But when he's been on the field (admittedly a big qualifier), he's played like one the past 3 years (8.0 bWAR, 6.6 fWAR in 540 PA). And a guy at his age, with that recent performance record -- even accompanied by injuries -- is not going to sign for 3/35 plus team options. It would be great for us if he did, but there's no evidence to suggest that is the market rate for such a player.
  3. FWIW, we're facing a LH starter, so maybe not tonight. Obviously, with hindsight the front office would 100% undo this trade. I certainly didn't mean to imply otherwise! I was just responding to the OP who focused on Wade's performance, and I just meant that if our trade return still held any hope of contributing someday, I don't think we'd be complaining much about the deal right now. Wade was too far down the depth chart to make a big impact on our 2021 season, and I don't know that his hot streak thus far would have changed our long-term outlook either -- we'd probably still be talking about how to flip him for a reliever next offseason, rather than disrupting our future depth chart. But the reliever we got for him last offseason was so bad, and so swiftly shown the door, that it puts the disappointment -- and the FO/coaching culpability -- into stark relief.
  4. I'm not so sure. Both the Padres and the Dodgers are already virtual locks to make the postseason. And Berrios would be unlikely to appear in a wild card game for either. Heck, depending on health, Berrios may only be the #4 starter for the Dodgers in the DS round too -- they are obviously competitive and have a strong rivalry, but how much do the Padres care about preventing that specific Dodgers upgrade? Either the Dodgers or the Padres might prefer their rival to get Berrios instead of Scherzer. And realistically, 5.5 games back right now, the Padres might not mind the Dodgers overtaking the Giants if they think the Giants will be easier to catch/defeat in the wild card race.
  5. Yes, there will still be a Rule 5 draft. There was even one in 1994, during the strike! The 2001 Rule 5 draft occurred without a CBA too -- it expired in early November that year (that was the "contraction" offseason). In general terms, "once a CBA expires, an employer has a statutorily imposed duty to maintain the status quo until its bargaining obligation is either satisfied by way of a new CBA or it is suspended while the bargaining parties are at a bargaining impasse." https://www.laboremploymentlawblog.com/2020/04/articles/national-labor-relations-act/expired-cba-mv-transportation-raytheon-network/ The Rule 5 draft fits well within the definition of "status quo." And with a Dec. 1st expiration, I doubt there would be any kind of "suspension of bargaining obligation" by the usual Rule 5 date (Dec. 12th-ish).
  6. I was wondering if Rogers would welcome a trade to the NL West. He'd get to play some games in his home state of Colorado, and he could play against (or even be teammates with) his brother.
  7. Dustin May... a highly regarded SP prospect who quickly acclimated to MLB -- even postseason -- and was starting to dominate when he got hurt. 142 ERA+ in 113 MLB IP so far. Yes, TJS means he's out until late 2022, but it also means his 2023-2025 arbitration salaries are going to be held down too. (Which could make him a good target for signing a reasonable extension at some point.) And it's probably too early after surgery to really worry that the Dodgers would be trying to sell a lemon. Would be fascinating if the Dodgers were actually willing to deal him!
  8. Great article, but would this be better described as "trade Happ and cash to the Phillies for a PTBNL or cash"? Aren't transactions generally written with the assumption that the acquiring team assumes the full remaining salary, unless cash is sent along with the player? Your other trade descriptions seem to follow that convention. So if we're covering any of Happ's remaining salary, we should be sending cash (although that doesn't preclude Philly from eventually sending some cash back too).
  9. Something to keep in mind with Wade: where would he have played here? He's not a CF, and he's a left-handed bat who still struggles vs LHP (up to 0-for-29 for his MLB career). We already have Kepler, Larnach, Kirilloff, and Arraez as left-handed bats in the outfield corners and at first base. There's been enough injuries that he probably would have seen some action but not a lot. Even in San Francisco, Wade was mostly parked on the bench or on the AAA shuttle until 1B Brandon Belt got hurt, which opened up a temporary platoon opportunity with Darin Ruf. FWIW, Belt is expected back soon, at which point Wade's playing time may fall off sharply. I echo the others in saying that the most frustrating thing here isn't Wade getting away, it's us failing to properly evaluate (pre-trade) or develop (post-trade) Shaun Anderson.
  10. I'm not sure about this -- I certainly don't want them to hold onto a guy like Shaun Anderson past his expiration date, in the vain hope they can somehow salvage the trade. He's currently pitching just as badly for Baltimore as he did for us.
  11. fire sale /ˈfī(ə)r ˌsāl/ noun a sale of goods remaining after the destruction of commercial premises by fire. a sale of goods or assets at a very low price, typically when the seller is facing bankruptcy. No fire and no bankruptcy -- no fire sale here!
  12. A rare prize which hasn't been awarded to a MLB player since 1980, at least! https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rookeji01.shtml
  13. Even if Thorpe clears waivers, he will be eligible for minor league free agency (which requires parts of 7 seasons on a minor league roster or injured list). Smeltzer would not be eligible yet, since he only has parts of 6 seasons in the minors. (2020 still counts as a minor league season for this purpose too.)
  14. Who are these pitchers to which you are referring? I tend to doubt that the Twins are taking on more TJS pitchers than other clubs. It's just a reality that a lot of pitchers have TJS these days -- you can't really avoid them. And I'm not sure that TJS pitchers should be avoided as a general rule in modern MLB either -- plenty of them have had the surgery and come back just fine (i.e. deGrom 10 years ago). FWIW, Strotman's TJS was over 3 years ago now -- it's likely only an "issue" right now because the 2020 minor league season was cancelled. Ryan, likely the better prospect of the two, hasn't had the surgery.
  15. I appreciate the creativity, and that would be a good deal for the Twins, but I'm not sure it would have been a good fit for the Rays. Their overall frugality means they don't have a pressing need to unload any contracts right now -- notice that they are taking on Cruz's remaining salary, and just swapped Rich Hill for a comparable contract too. Kiermaier is still producing (defensively) for them, so they'd probably rather keep him and hang on to their better prospects.
  16. Some background on the "Guardians" choice: https://www.wkyc.com/article/sports/mlb/indians/cleveland-guardians-trendy-pick-cleveland-indians-new-name/95-7482a89e-5143-4043-9bdd-8f5e550a7c41
  17. Faucher has had a pretty disastrous AA season so far. 19 games, 30.2 IP, 29 runs, 24 walks. 42 K's, but Faucher is a good example of why K/9 can be a poor metric, compared to K%. His K/9 looks like it is inflated by about 14% due to extra hits/walks and failing to record outs.
  18. As mentioned, Fangraphs gives these two pitchers 45 FV grades. On their respective midseason lists, the Rays had 18 such prospects, so they've got the depth to make this kind of deal. (The Twins only had 8, although we just had a few graduations and the Rays haven't quite yet.)
  19. For tonight's lineup, Donaldson moves into the DH spot and Astudillo will start at 3B. Twins Daily staff is staking out the Omaha airport to see which Saint(s) will be coming to Minnesota for tomorrow's game.
  20. Fangraphs gives both new pitchers a 45 FV (Future Value) score. That would put them ahead of every Twins minor league pitcher right now except Balazovic, Duran, and Canterino. Edit: actually Winder has a 45 FV too in their midseason update: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2021-in-season-prospect-list/summary?sort=-1,1&team=min&type=0
  21. Probably too late to activate anyone for tonight (the Saints are about to play in Omaha). Cave is on the 10th day of his rehab assignment though, so he'd be my guess to take Cruz's spot in Minnesota tomorrow over Rooker. (Position player rehab assignments can last for up to 20 days, but I haven't heard anything to suggest Cave will need the full 20 days, he seems to be hitting pretty well and playing CF.) They could activate Cave and demote Celestino, of course, separate from Rooker replacing Cruz.
  22. Over in the forums, @Musk21 shared an interesting Sports Illustrated article on Joe Ryan from late May 2021: https://www.si.com/mlb/2021/05/24/pitching-prospects-college-joe-ryan-the-opener
  23. More Cruz trade discussion under the article here: https://twinsdaily.com/forums/topic/52592-twins-trade-nelson-cruz-to-the-rays-for-two-aaa-starting-pitchers/
  24. Baseball Trade Values pegs this as an overpay for the Rays, although in the comments the site owner mentions that their value estimate for Joe Ryan was a little too high for some reason: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-53895/
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