No Surprise: Twins Exercise Options for Kepler and Polanco

[Nick Nelson]

The two long-tenured Twins are now under contract for 2024. That doesn't necessarily mean either will be playing in Minnesota next year.

Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

In a move that shouldn't have caught anyone off-guard, the Minnesota Twins announced on Thursday that they are exercising their respective team options for 2024 on Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco. Among current Twins players, only Byron Buxton has been around as long as these two long-time fixtures, who are now locked into their contracts for the coming season. 

Both have their question marks, to be sure. Polanco has dealt with continual lower-body injuries in the past couple of seasons, and Kepler's performance was perpetually underwhelming up until the midway point of 2023. Still, at the prices their options entail -- $10 million for Kepler, $10.5 million for Polo, these decisions were truly no-brainers. Each player would command far more on the open market, and as such, will draw trade interest if the Twins are so inclined.

This procedural move sets the stage for an offseason that will likely be dominated by trade speculation around both Polanco and Kepler. The right fielder and second baseman are proven commodities who were both arguably made redundant by the emergence of standout rookies this year -- specifically, Edouard Julien and Matt Wallner.

Kepler's offensive breakout and outstanding right field defense make him a strong asset. Polanco has been one of the most consistent offensive performers in the middle infield across the league. Shortcomings aside, these are good players still in their primes, with short-term and relatively low-cost commitments. That will make them attractive to other clubs, but also makes them attractive to the Twins, who clearly like both players a lot beyond what they bring to the field. They also like depth.

The future for both Kepler and Polanco remains to be seen, but for now, as expected, they are under contract to play for the Minnesota Twins in 2024.

 

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[ashbury]

Max has always sported a low BA on balls in play.  It's been a reason people have speculated he would soon break out, for years now, since it's unusual for someone with major league skills to have BABIP like .250 when the league generally is up around .300.  Now, all of a sudden starting in July and continuing in each month through the rest of the season, his BABIP is up to league average, even a little above, and his good OPS in those months is a reflection of it.  Did coach Popkins notice something that unlocked a part of his hidden potential?  Is there some other explanation?  Will he revert?

A right fielder with a good glove and his second half numbers is quite valuable.  If his poor post-season numbers are an indication of regression to the old Max, then it may be wise to "sell high" as the saying goes.

[Jocko87]

They did what?!?! Cheap Polhads!

[Major League Ready]

I don't see Walner making Kepler "redundant"  I am pretty sure we need two corner OFers.  We simply lack depth in the OF both at the ML level and AA/AAA.  INFers are a different story.  We have Lewis at 3B with Lee / Farmer / Castro / Miranda /  Severino and perhaps Prato capable of stepping in in case of Injury.  At 2B we have Julien with the same back-ups as 3B.  Castro / Lewis and farmer are back-ups for SS.  

[Fatbat]

@Major League Readyisn’t depth a wonderful problem to have?!  If Buxton’s knee is actually fixable, we might just have an above average OF in 2024. I know its a lot to ask but I’m gonna hope for one last time that he will play 120 games in CF. I will not bet my retirement on that happening tho. 
Even if the injury bug bites in 2024, we won’t be in need of bringing up a kid that isn't ready or making a mid season trade/pickup for Gallo or Stevenson type.  Sorry, not sorry. 
Cheers to Buck possibly, maybe living up to his 4.5 tool potential.

[Johnny Ringo]

It's the right move regardless of the FO's intent to include them on the 2024 roster. With the buy-outs necessary if the options weren't exercised you have a marginal expense of $8 or $9 million for each of them. That's value. You can sort out the rest later. 

Kepler always seems to hang on, no matter the situation. I would guess that Jorge gets flipped for a prospects but maybe not. 

It's savvy either way.   

[stringer bell]

Isn't it interesting how three months can change perceptions? By the end of June, I was pretty sure Kepler's first name was DFA. He had the type of second half that indicated he was a bargain for what his contracts pays him. 

The real question is whether the Twins will trade Jorge or Kepler and what return they can get. To me, Polanco is more expendable and a greater injury risk. Using him as the headliner in a trade for pitching makes sense to me, but losing him would not be painless.

[Linus]

1 hour ago, stringer bell said:

Isn't it interesting how three months can change perceptions? By the end of June, I was pretty sure Kepler's first name was DFA. He had the type of second half that indicated he was a bargain for what his contracts pays him. 

The real question is whether the Twins will trade Jorge or Kepler and what return they can get. To me, Polanco is more expendable and a greater injury risk. Using him as the headliner in a trade for pitching makes sense to me, but losing him would not be painless.

Depends on which Kepler you are going to get going forward. Great chance to sell high. 

[Dman]

As others have mentioned it feels like this offseason is the right time to move Polanco if the price is right.  The infield seems tight and with Lee on the way as someone who could be a Polanco clone and the 40 man getting tighter. Using that 10M elsewhere sure is tempting.  

And yet .800 OPS bats don't grow on tree's and being a switch hitter on top of it makes him versatile and valuable.  It is a tough call, but I still think they trade him this offseason.

I am pretty sure teams will be asking about Kepler, but I don't know if we are set up as well in the outfield just yet.  It would be nice to keep Kepler one more year and give Rodriguez and Rosario one more year to see if they will be ready in 2025.  Still Kepler's value appears higher than Polanco's and if the price is right they could go with Wallner, Larnach, Gordon in the corners with Kirilloff filling in left if needed. 

It doesn't feel as solid without Kepler, but again if the price is right I could see them moving on.

Nice to know they can still get value for both players in trade or by keeping them on the team.  It just feels like it might be time to make trades to strengthen other areas.

[Fezig]

11 hours ago, ashbury said:

Max has always sported a low BA on balls in play.  It's been a reason people have speculated he would soon break out, for years now, since it's unusual for someone with major league skills to have BABIP like .250 when the league generally is up around .300.  Now, all of a sudden starting in July and continuing in each month through the rest of the season, his BABIP is up to league average, even a little above, and his good OPS in those months is a reflection of it.  Did coach Popkins notice something that unlocked a part of his hidden potential?  Is there some other explanation?  Will he revert?

A right fielder with a good glove and his second half numbers is quite valuable.  If his poor post-season numbers are an indication of regression to the old Max, then it may be wise to "sell high" as the saying goes.

I think letting Kepler play left field will help him to understand that a hit ball can sometimes be placed on that side of the field. Send him some highlights of two time World Series MVP Corey Seager to see how a left handed hitter can hit the ball to all sides of the field. 

That said, I believe his second half was an aberration. Until he stops trying to pull ever pitch he'll be an avg/below avg babip player at best.

[roger]

I keep reading these posts and wonder, why do people continue to mention Gordon as an option in a corner outfield position?

The kid hit well for a few months two years ago.  Last year it seemed he didn't take his bat with him to the plate.  Then, like so many years in the minors, he got hurt and missed much of the season.  

Yes, he was fantastic cheering for his mates during the playoffs.  And yes, numerous reports indicate he is a good guy.  But he is marginal defensively at all three outfield positions and just acceptable in the infield.  With Willie Castro returning next spring, there isn't a spot on this team for Gordon.  Hopefully, he can provide some value to the Twins if included in a trade.

[Karbo]

8 hours ago, Dman said:

As others have mentioned it feels like this offseason is the right time to move Polanco if the price is right.  The infield seems tight and with Lee on the way as someone who could be a Polanco clone and the 40 man getting tighter. Using that 10M elsewhere sure is tempting.  

And yet .800 OPS bats don't grow on tree's and being a switch hitter on top of it makes him versatile and valuable.  It is a tough call, but I still think they trade him this offseason.

I am pretty sure teams will be asking about Kepler, but I don't know if we are set up as well in the outfield just yet.  It would be nice to keep Kepler one more year and give Rodriguez and Rosario one more year to see if they will be ready in 2025.  Still Kepler's value appears higher than Polanco's and if the price is right they could go with Wallner, Larnach, Gordon in the corners with Kirilloff filling in left if needed. 

It doesn't feel as solid without Kepler, but again if the price is right I could see them moving on.

Nice to know they can still get value for both players in trade or by keeping them on the team.  It just feels like it might be time to make trades to strengthen other areas.

Pretty risky IMO to count on minor league players to come up and play up to the caliber that Polo does. Though I do think he will be a trade candidate, they better get top value in return.

[Brett]

Curious to spend $20M on 2 solid regulars with so many cheaper options lined up behind them in light of the lack of clarity on TV revenue. 
If we swing a TV deal, do we keep them? How large of a factor is external revenue?

Sign these two, offer arbitration to everyone in that situation, and bring ‘‘em all to Fort Myers. Hopefully there will be some financial clarity in 3 months.

[Nashvilletwin]

The Twins are not long corner outfielders at the moment (or center fielders for that matter as well). Kepler’s second half cannot be overlooked - if he produces any where near that in ‘24, he very likely could not be replaced internally or externally via free agency for anything near that $10MM. Prediction: Kepler is our starting RFer opening day.

Polanco, I believe, also has an option for ‘25 at $12,5MM.   A team acquiring Polanco actually has control for two years at a very reasonable price. That extra year definitely has value in the trade market,  Given the Twin’s depth in the infield, and the ability to pretty much replace Polanco with infield depth at a lower cost in free agency if need be, Polanco is more likely to be moved.  Polanco’s trade return plus freeing up $10MM could really help to round out the pitching staff.  Prediction: Polanco is moved before opening day.

[Major League Ready]

23 minutes ago, Karbo said:

Pretty risky IMO to count on minor league players to come up and play up to the caliber that Polo does. Though I do think he will be a trade candidate, they better get top value in return.

They are not really relying on Milb players.  Polanco would be a role player.  Julien is the primary 2B, Lewis 3B and Correa at SS.  Then, they have two proven back-ups in Farmer and Castro.  I am not sure how to categorize Miranda but he could play into this as well.  Spend the $10M on a really good SP or a back of the BP arm.  That upgrade is more impactful than replacing Polanco with any of these options.

[roger]

Interesting question related to this time of year, Nick.  Will the Twins add the catcher from St. Paul to the 40-man before he becomes a free agent?  When does he become a free agent, Monday night?

[stringer bell]

33 minutes ago, Karbo said:

Pretty risky IMO to count on minor league players to come up and play up to the caliber that Polo does. 

 

29 minutes ago, Brett said:

Curious to spend $20M on 2 solid regulars with so many cheaper options lined up behind them …

Two consecutive posts with opposite views.

To me, there is enough depth in the infield to trade Polanco and fill another hole, not to discount Jorge’s value. With Lee and Martin waiting in the wings and Julien, Correa and Lewis set for regular duty, Polanco could be traded without a substantial loss on the field. 
 

 

[weitz41]

Picking up these options was a no brainer. The last two seasons have proven how vital depth is. Trading one or both before August 1st deadline doesn't feel like a no brainer to me. To many what ifs, injuries or regression by young players to be in a hurry to trade either. I'd sell high on Castro before I'd part with either of Polanco or Kepler. 

Then there's players like Gordon, Miranda and Larnach who the jury is still out on.

[Trov]

I see Polanco getting traded, and Kepler staying.  Kepler has a long track record of being average, and just had a really good season 2019, and a great second half of last year.  He is a good defender and average bat.  That has value, but corner outfield guys are all over the place. For us though we do not have a ton of guys ready to go.  Larnach, maybe can fill in, or some of our others, but none have shown the same level of defense and offense has been about on par. Wallner can play right, but then we need to fill left.  We also still not sure who will fill CF.

Polanco when healthy has shown to be a very good bat.  He also has a second option on his contract, so if he has a good year the team taking him can bring him back for cheaper contract again.  However, for us, we have a ton of depth at infield, unless we non-tender Farmer, we have Lewis at third, CC at short, Julien at 2nd, plenty of options as 1st, with hopefully healthy Mirand backup either 3rd or 1st, Lee ready to come in for any position.  That just makes Polanco more expendable for us. 

[Whitey333]

And the jury is still out on Buxton.  Although odds do look pretty good he will be on the injured list a lot again in 2024.  He's only played one "full" season out of eight.  He sure holds up the roster.  They better have a center fielder in mind.  Go Twins.

 

[2wins87]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

They are not really relying on Milb players.  Polanco would be a role player.  Julien is the primary 2B, Lewis 3B and Correa at SS.  Then, they have two proven back-ups in Farmer and Castro.  I am not sure how to categorize Miranda but he could play into this as well.  Spend the $10M on a really good SP or a back of the BP arm.  That upgrade is more impactful than replacing Polanco with any of these options.

I'm not really opposed to trading Polanco for the right package, but in terms of value I'd much rather have Polanco at $10MM (and potentially $12MM  in 2025) than Farmer at $6MM.

If the main idea is to make room in the infield/payroll I would start with moving Farmer.  The next two years might be their peak winning window, so I'm only moving Polanco as part of a package that unequivocally improves the team next year (so most likely a #2/3 or better SP).

[mickster]

1 hour ago, stringer bell said:

 

Two consecutive posts with opposite views.

To me, there is enough depth in the infield to trade Polanco and fill another hole, not to discount Jorge’s value. With Lee and Martin waiting in the wings and Julien, Correa and Lewis set for regular duty, Polanco could be traded without a substantial loss on the field. 
 

 

Lee is coming, but unless Martin can become a CF I think he is used in a trade.   I would like to fit Whit Merrifield and his versatility onto this team with Castro and Farmer.    Gordon needs to go though

[Karbo]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

They are not really relying on Milb players.  Polanco would be a role player.  Julien is the primary 2B, Lewis 3B and Correa at SS.  Then, they have two proven back-ups in Farmer and Castro.  I am not sure how to categorize Miranda but he could play into this as well.  Spend the $10M on a really good SP or a back of the BP arm.  That upgrade is more impactful than replacing Polanco with any of these options.

I disagree for now anyway. While Julian looks like the real deal, I've followed the Twins since they moved here in '61, and I've seen countless rookies come up with a major 1st year only to flop after. Let Julian prove he is a reasonable replacement at 2nd, then look at trades. As far as Farmer and Castro, neither one is anywhere near as good as Polo.

[Major League Ready]

12 minutes ago, 2wins87 said:

I'm not really opposed to trading Polanco for the right package, but in terms of value I'd much rather have Polanco at $10MM (and potentially $12MM  in 2025) than Farmer at $6MM.

If the main idea is to make room in the infield/payroll I would start with moving Farmer.  The next two years might be their peak winning window, so I'm only moving Polanco as part of a package that unequivocally improves the team next year (so most likely a #2/3 or better SP).

I am not so sure about that value proposition.  Farmer has considerably better career stats against LHP.  That increases his value as a role player.  Julien is going to start against RHP and Farmer is better against LHP so Polanco's value is mostly in the form of injury back-up.   

We could make a case for letting farmer go as well.  However, the value proposition as I see it is the replacement(s) for Polanco as a bench Player plus $10M spent elsewhere VS Polanco as a role player.  In that equation, the team is better off next year by reallocating the funds for pitching.  Insisting the return be for established players is not nearly as effective as getting a good return which has been proven over and over if you bother to look at how mid-market teams have built successful rosters.

[Karbo]

1 hour ago, stringer bell said:

 

Two consecutive posts with opposite views.

To me, there is enough depth in the infield to trade Polanco and fill another hole, not to discount Jorge’s value. With Lee and Martin waiting in the wings and Julien, Correa and Lewis set for regular duty, Polanco could be traded without a substantial loss on the field. 
 

 

Cheap options that really haven't proved themselves at the major league level. Lee has played so few games in the minors that nobody knows how he'll do over a full major league season. Martin was so bad year before last that people on this site were calling the trade with Toronto a flop. Julian had a great 1st part of a season but many rookies look like future greats, only to flop after that 1st year. IMO Lee needs at least another year to prove himself in AAA. Martin needs to get more experience in the OF where I believe his future is.

[TopGunn#22]

There really was no surprise in the Twins extending both Max and Polo.  They are bargains at those prices.  But how do both fit into future Twins rosters?

Many of you you have already listed all the depth at 2B/3B where Polo would slot.  Even if we move on from Farmer or Gordon (which I think we will) we've got plenty of younger and cheaper options than Polo.  He will be traded before spring training in a deal to bring a SP or a CF.  Depending on Polo's current value and the value of the asset we bring back, someone like Larnach or Miranda or Winder may need to be included in the deal.

Max is a little different, but only from a timeline perspective.  It sure was encouraging to see "2nd half Max" as opposed to "Max, post 2019."  He will remain our RF for 2024.  After that, it's a little more murky.  E-Rod will play most of 2024 in the minors.  It's possible he could get a call up in August or September.  Walker Jenkins.  How fast is that kid gonna move?  They say both Jenkins and E-Rod project to be corner OF even though both are playing a lot of CF.  What if one or both of them could play 3-5 years of CF before they move to a corner?  And then there's Austin Martin, who could be an excellent #9 hitter type with on-base skills and speed?  And there's Rosario and others.  Max probably only has one more year in Minnesota.   

  

[Fire Dan Gladden]

It seems all the arguments to move both of these players is the same reason why a cost conscious mid-market team like the Twins should keep them.

They are both relatively inexpensive.
They are both avg to slightly above avg at their respective positions (complain about the negatives all you want).
There are still current question marks about who would replace them.

$10.5m for 100 games of Polanco is not outlandish.  Kepler is a little more of a risk, but not as high as most people think.  They may be shopped this offseason, but I think the odds are pretty strong they will be in a Twins uniform next year,  

[Major League Ready]

50 minutes ago, Karbo said:

I disagree for now anyway. While Julian looks like the real deal, I've followed the Twins since they moved here in '61, and I've seen countless rookies come up with a major 1st year only to flop after. Let Julian prove he is a reasonable replacement at 2nd, then look at trades. As far as Farmer and Castro, neither one is anywhere near as good as Polo.

I think you are overlooking a couple things.  For starters, Julien has already replaced Polanco.  Polanco is a role player now and the Twins play match-ups.  Two, the combination of Julien/Farmer is significantly better than Polanco.  Julien's OPS is 95 pts higher vs RHP and Farmer's OPS is 95 pts higher vs LHP and Polanco is getting very few innings at 3B as long as Lewis is healthy.  In terms, of back-up for Lewis, the combination of Castro/Farmer is at least as good as putting Polo at 3B where he is poor defensively.  

It also appears you are not considering the $10M salary.  I will take a $10M RP and whoever replaces Polanco's bench role over Polanco not to mention they also will get something decent in return.  The $10M could come in handy signing Montgomery or Rodriquez as well.

[ashbury]

5 hours ago, roger said:

I keep reading these posts and wonder, why do people continue to mention Gordon as an option in a corner outfield position?

The kid hit well for a few months two years ago.  Last year it seemed he didn't take his bat with him to the plate.  Then, like so many years in the minors, he got hurt and missed much of the season.  

Yes, he was fantastic cheering for his mates during the playoffs.  And yes, numerous reports indicate he is a good guy.  But he is marginal defensively at all three outfield positions and just acceptable in the infield.  With Willie Castro returning next spring, there isn't a spot on this team for Gordon.  Hopefully, he can provide some value to the Twins if included in a trade.

It's definitely a tangent for this thread, but I agree.  Gordon's glove doesn't play, in the skill positions up the middle.  Gordon's bat doesn't play, at the corners such as LF.  He's a tweener, making him a backup at best, and those types of player are usually obtained easily, as witness our pickup of Willi Castro.

You mentioned that he hit well in July and August 2022.  I checked and in those two months his BABIP was .394.  For his career he's almost exactly at league average with .304.  By contrast, his blighted 2023 was brought down by a really low BABIP; presumably it would trend back up for 2024.  The real Gordon is somewhere between these extremes.  Any player who reaches the majors can have his moments - a Twins game I happened to be able to watch at Comerica Park resulted in a lot of laughs with my family as Gordon had the game of his life* and put my disparaging pre-game comments to shame - but all in all he's not in the LF discussion as far as I'm concerned.

Not a hill I would die on, especially in this thread about Kepler and Polanco.  But you don't replace Kep with Gordon and say, "okay, we're good."

 

* edit - I went back and looked, and actually he's had better games than that one in his major league career, it just stuck out for me as unexpected

[Dman]

35 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

It seems all the arguments to move both of these players is the same reason why a cost conscious mid-market team like the Twins should keep them.

They are both relatively inexpensive.
They are both avg to slightly above avg at their respective positions (complain about the negatives all you want).
There are still current question marks about who would replace them.

$10.5m for 100 games of Polanco is not outlandish.  Kepler is a little more of a risk, but not as high as most people think.  They may be shopped this offseason, but I think the odds are pretty strong they will be in a Twins uniform next year,  

Yeah I battle with that same scenario myself.  I guess the deciding factor for me is that most teams that are bottom ten in revenue take risks by selling on vets early to get things they need or grab prospects to hopefully get good players that they can control for a longer period of time.  Couple that in with Jullian being about as effective as Polanco at 2nd and with Lee on the way and saving 10M I think it tips it to trade for me.