Astros 6, Twins 4: Verlander Outpitches Ober, Twins Late Rally Falls Short in ALDS Loss

[Hans Birkeland]

Facing a surefire Hall-of-Famer in Justin Verlander, the Twins staged a rally against the Astros' bullpen after falling behind early. Jorge Polanco and Royce Lewis homered, but Yordan Alvarez homered twice, and Bryan Abreu and Ryan Pressley held the last two innings to secure the win in game one.

Image courtesy of © Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports

Box Score:
Starting Pitcher: Bailey Ober: 3 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 0 BB, 2 K (43 Pitches, 28 Strikes, 65%)
Home Runs: Jorge Polanco (1), Royce Lewis (3)
Bottom 3 WPA: Ober (-.159), Alex Kirilloff (-.130), Matt Wallner (-0.96)
Win Probability Chart (Via Fangraphs):

The Twins took care of business at home against a mercurial Toronto Blue Jays team, allowing one run over the two games en route to the first postseason sweep in Twins/Senators history. Pablo Lopez and Sonny Gray were as advertised, but the offense let quite a few opportunities slip away. Against the defending champion Astros, the lineup would likely need to produce. The Astros were the only AL team that outhit the Twins in the second half, and still feature a menacing, experienced lineup.

The Twins turned to Bailey Ober for game one, citing the Astros lack of at-bats against him, as well as Joe Ryan's inability to keep the ball in the ballpark. It would seem Ober had the moxie to take on a tough team on the road, given his domination this year against the Orioles in Baltimore (7 IP, 0 ER), and against the Dodgers in LA (6 IP, 1 ER).

The Astros started the legendary Justin Verlander. He has not quite pitched to the elite level he had established over the years, but maintains decent velocity, exceptional command and knee-buckling breaking stuff. The casual fan might think this was a lopsided pitching matchup, and they would be proven right.

The first inning started great. Edouard Julien drew a walk as Verlander had trouble commanding his breaking pitches. Jorge Polanco then drove a hanging curveball for a sharp single. Royce Lewis then got ahead in the count before grounding into a double play to extinguish most of the rally. Max Kepler then walked, but Verlander got Alex Kirilloff to tap out to end the threat.

A 23 pitch inning with only 10 strikes from Verlander might have been considered a win. But as he has done so often, Jose Altuve jumped on a first pitch fastball and crushed it 377 feet for a 1-0 Houston lead. Ober settled down after that, getting pop-ups from Alex Bregman and Jose Abreu and convincingly striking out Yordan Alvarez on a high fastball to limit the damage.

The Twins built another threat in the second. After Carlos Correa bounced a single off the second base bag, Matt Wallner lined out. Ryan Jeffers then drove a hanging breaking ball into left field, giving the Twins runners on first and second with one out. Michael A. Taylor then jumped on the first pitch, a fastball, and tapped into an inning-ending double play. 

After an uneventful bottom of the second, Julien started the third by banging an 0-2 fastball off the wall in left-center field for a double. But after a Polanco strikeout, Royce Lewis lined a grounder sharply to Bregman, who caught Julien trying to advance and tagged him out after a brief run-down. Kepler then struck out on a beautiful curveball from Verlander to end the inning.

After impressively getting Altuve to pop out to start the third, Ober had a slide slip out of his hand that hit Bregman. He then threw a middle-middle changeup to Alvarez, who does not miss such pitches. 3-0 Astros.

That spelled the end of Ober's outing. Kenta Maeda was warming prior to Alvarez's home run, and entered to start the fourth. It is unclear whether Ober would have been allowed to go longer had he kept the score 1-0, but in any event Maeda worked a scoreless fourth. He pitched around a single and walk to Martin Maldonado, but got Altuve to ground out to end the frame.

Unfortunately for the Twins, Verlander had found his command by that point and started mowing down hitters with ruthless efficiency. Taylor was mercifully hit with a pitch behind in the count in the fifth, but Julien and Polanco struck out on curveballs to end whatever threat that represented. 

The Astros added insurance in the fifth. Bregman singled and Alvarez drew a walk. After a Tucker lineout, Abreu popped up to left field. However, Wallner was shading Abreu to the gap and couldn't it down, allowing the fourth run to score. Chas McCormick then singled sharply to Wallner, who came up firing to nab Alvarez at home. Abreu deked Kirilloff into cutting the ball off to retire him at third while Alvarez score the fifth run. It is hard to say if Wallner's throw would have been in time, but it certainly looked like there was a chance.

Chris Paddack took over for Maeda in the sixth and pitched a perfect inning. Good timing, because Verlander was out of the game after six. Wallner led off the seventh with one of his customary hit-by-pitches, Jeffers singled, and after two strikeouts, Polanco launched a Hector Neris fastball for a three-run homer. Lewis then followed with a homer of his own to cut the lead to one.

Unfortunately for the Twins, Alvarez was due up the next inning. After Paddack retired Bregman on strikes, Rocco Baldelli brought in Caleb Thielbar to face "Air Yordan." Thielbar has struggled with the home run ball, and Alvarez doesn't care who pitches to him. A curveball was left up just a little, and the Astros' DH crushed it to make it a two-run game.

This was crucial not just for its impact on the game, but the rest of the series. The Twins purposely did not carry Kody Funderburk this round, mainly because the Astros lefties don't have much in the way of platoon splits. If Thielbar was supposed to represent the Twins' counter to Alvarez/Tucker, that didn't get off to a great start. It will interesting to see whether Thielbar gets another crack at them.

Another key play happened after Abreu walked. Trying to advance on a wild pitch, Jeffers gunned him down as he appeared to coast into second Correa seemed to deke Abreu by motioning for Jeffers not to throw, then made a quick tag for the final out.

The Twins threatened again in the eighth, with Correa delivering his second hit, a leadoff double against Bryan Abreu. But Wallner and Jeffers struck out, while Willi Castro grounded out sharply to Altuve to end the frame.

Ryan Pressley pitched a 1-2-3 ninth for the save.

The good:
Polanco took good swings all night and looked more comfortable at third, making a nice spear of Tucker's line drive in the fifth.

Lewis got his first hit since his second home in game one against Toronto, and made it count with a long home run in the seventh.

Paddack was sharp, retiring all four batters he faced.

The Twins got to Neris for four runs and forced ace reliever Bryan Abreu to throw 29 pitches.

Correa had two hits and was again impressive in the field.

Jhoan and Duran did not have to pitch, while Abreu and Pressley did, portending a potential advantage in game two.

The bad:
Ober made two bad pitches, and paid a big price.

Maeda was dinked and dunked into allowing his two runs, but clearly wasn't the shutdown reliever he had been with the Dodgers.

Julien made his crucial baserunning mistake after his double to start the third. He may have thought there were two outs, or he just lost focus. Either way, it cost the Twins while Verlander was still finding his command.

What’s Next: Pablo Lopez (11-8, 3.66 ERA) faces off against Framber Valdez (12-11, 3.45) as the Twins look to even the series.
Postgame Interviews:

 

	MON	TUE	WED	THU	FRI	SAT	TOT
Maeda	0	0	0	0	0	43	43
Thielbar	0	10	4	0	0	18	32
Durán	0	14	13	0	0	0	27
Jax	0	8	15	0	0	0	23
Paddack	0	0	0	0	0	19	19
Varland	0	2	17	0	0	0	19
Pagán	0	0	0	0	0	14	14
Stewart	0	0	13	0	0	0	13
Funderburk	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

View full article

[Mike Sixel]

Can't do that with RISP against a great team.....

[thelanges5]

Strikeouts are boring. I know the FO doesn’t care but I like to quote Rocco. Somebody needs to put the ball forward.

[Aggies7]

This loss shouldn’t feel as bad as it does considering the matchup going in.

[DocBauer]

Had to work, only caught a few moments of the game, so all I have is the GAMEDAY, BOX, and the OP. So anything I say comes with more than a grain of salt.

I think Ober was the smart choice to start this game. Sounds like he wasn't bad, but made a couple bad pitches. He's been very good this year, and I love his future, and very first playoff game against a good team in their home park against a future 1st ballot HOF'er is not an easy game. Still, I'm a little disappointed in his performance and the save vet Maeda.

Don't know if Paddack should have stayed in. Sounds like he was throwing pretty good. But Thielbar is aces most of the time so probably the smart move.

I did see the Julien baserunning mistake. And it was a poor choice on his part. Will never know if it cost a chance to score a run or two, but no way to sugarcoat a bad decision.

The Twins didn't give up and made it interesting. I like the resolve of the team. Winning the 1st game in any series gives an advantage. But the only thing I ever wanted/expected was to come away with a W in either of the first couple of games. If they can do that Sunday, they go home for 2, and I kinda like how that plays out.

Go Twins!

[FlyingFinn]

16 minutes ago, thelanges5 said:

Strikeouts are boring. I know the FO doesn’t care but I like to quote Rocco. Somebody needs to put the ball forward.

I mostly agree but hitting into double plays are actually even worse.

[Montdak]

While not as egregious as the Toronto manager the other day, Rocco messed up with the quick hook on Ober.  Should have let him start another inning and if he gave up one or two hits more remove him.  I think Rocco lost a few games this year with a quick hook.

On Julien, I like him.  Good hitter.  Good eye.  Needs a little work on defense.  Lot of work on base running as we see today.  But for heaven’s  sake get a different helmet or hairdo so the helmet doesn’t go sideways as you’re trying to swing the bat.

[lukeduke1980]

I guess we have to win it in 4

[twins_89]

This loss felt a lot like a typical Twins playoff game over the last 15 years in that our starting pitching was completely overmatched and the rest of the team couldn't make up the difference.

[Danchat]

We needed first half Ober and Maeda pitching, and got the second half versions. This game might have gone different if they were hot.

[Aggies7]

3 minutes ago, twins_89 said:

This loss felt a lot like a typical Twins playoff game over the last 15 years in that our starting pitching was completely overmatched and the rest of the team couldn't make up the difference.

The missed chances over the first 3 innings and the long balls by Houston felt a lot like most games during the long losing streak

[wabene]

Tough loss in a tough matchup. I was hoping for more from Ober, well and the bats too. The Twins are going to have to play better to beat this damn team.

FYI many missed the first few innings if you don't have FS2 or MLB Network. All I had was the Baltimore Texas game on FS1. Turns out you can install the Fox Sports app and watch it there until they switch over to your game. 

[Schmoeman5]

To me the 2 things that were big let downs was Juliens baserunning error and Thielbars not getting a shutdown inning after the Twins got back in the game. Sure, there's no guarantee that the Twins score but those types of mistakes are deflating. And to those who say he was caught in no man's land. That play is right in front of him. Thielbars only homer given up to a lefthanded hitter this year but his 1st pitch to Alvarez was a middle middle fastball which he missed. But he sure didn't miss that hanging curve.  I'm anxious to see how the Twins respond tomorrow.  Come out firing on all cylinders  

[umterp23]

Did anyone think Castro had no desire to be in the game. Lazy 1st at bat and basically walked to first on groundout. Pretty pathetic and disappointing 

[D.C Twins]

I'm impressed by the moxie displayed to make a game of it in the last 3 innings!

A few observations:

1. Wallner has been completely overmatched in his playoff ABs. Someone else needs to replace him in the starting line up. 

2. It appeared that the Umps missed more calls against the Twins on balls/strikes but need to see the official breakdown as I am heavily biased of course :)

3. The Houston line up is possibly even better than advertised.... they take GREAT AB throughout the line up and will place constant pressure on the Twins pitcher. 

4. Paddack looked really good which is exciting for next year as well!

5. Pressley's was more than a bit wild in the 9th and we completely let him off the hook with poor plate discipline 

We can still compete in this series but Houston is most certainly a worthy defending champion. 

[LewFordLives]

They needed a better start from Ober. He was up in the zone the entire time he was pitching. He has to utilize the entire strike zone.

[minman1982]

It would be interesting to know how this game would have played out if the Twins scored a couple of runs in the first instead of letting Verlander out of the jam. There were plenty of opportunities early that the Twins squandered. That is baseball though. Everything seemed to go their way against Toronto (and Toronto didn't seem to do themselves any favors). Houston is a talented ball team with a lot of post season experience. The reality is that the if the Twins can take one of the first two, that puts them in good shape to win the series. Looking forward to seeing Lopez tomorrow.

[Unwinder]

Very thoughtful of the Twins to drop one for the fans who already took Wednesday off work.

[Doctor Evil]

Good battle level from our side today.

[glunn]

It seemed to me that the home plate ump made some mistakes calling strikes that hurt the Twins.

[Einheri]

Shake it off, win on Sunday.

[Boswell]

One little seeing-eye single or bloop hit for us with RISP, one less big fat fastball to their sluggers… we’re good to go!

[Rik19753]

It wasn't a very favorable matchup on paper, but given the way Verlander was struggling in the first few innings we really needed to capitalize and win this game. There are games where the opposing pitchers are on their A game and it's hard to place blame on the bats for not producing, but that wasn't the case yesterday.

That being said, I like how they fought back in the later innings to make it close, and I think the difference between losing this game 6-4 as opposed to 6-1 or 6-0 is huge.

By making this a close game, we succeeded in making the top Astros relievers throw high-leverage innings. They may have come in even if the lead were bigger, but making the innings stressful for them was important both from an emotional and physical standpoint. If they are used in game 2 their performance will very likely not be the same.

I also think the 4 runs scored by the offense helped them gain a little confidence. Let's be honest, the bats haven't looked good at all so far in the playoffs, and I think the hitters were starting to press. Scoring those runs off a good reliever should help them regain their confidence and swag and they should be ready to come out with a bang against Valdez.

Go Twins!

[Karbo]

It doesn't get any easier for game 2.

[bighat]

Verlander just ate Wallner and Kirilloff alive with men on base. I'm guessing Solano and Farmer get a shot, we need veterans in the lineup. Let's all be honest, in hindsight Ober wasn't the best choice to start this game. All the runs in one inning for the Twins, we've seen that movie before. Gotta tack on, this ain't Kansas City we're playing here. 

Great to see that fire in the 7th, it just might get the guys fired up enough to make a game of things in Game 2. And that's good because a loss today and you can put a bow on the series. It's a must win. 

[akmanak]

No one believed the Twins would sweep their way into the World Series. Doesn't work like that. I hate that we lost but we didn't get blown out and we didn't even have our best pitcher on the mound. 

 

Many posters mentioned that the Ober/Maeda combo was a great idea, but now are lambasting Rocco.  I liked the attempt by Rocco on this one to attempt to keep a potent lineup at bay. 

 

Let's take the next one and win this series at home. 

[Johnny Ringo]

Wallner and Kirilloff seemed to think they were facing Verlander's overwhelming HOF credentials and not the 2023 version of him, which is still good but no longer terrifying.

But isn't it great to care about playoff baseball again and know that win or lose, that we deserve to be there?  Even compared to the Bomba squad (a one-trick pony fed by the woeful AL Central), this feels different.

Enjoy it all! 

 

[Doctor Gast]

I should have texted this before.

It's hard to say for sure, but I still suspect that HOU batters are wearing buzzers. I believe HOU has the mentality of winning no matter if it's legal or not. Batters should be scanned for electronic devices before they bat just to ensure everything is fair,

[Fezig]

Julien needs better professional at-bats. When down by 5 runs, don't try to swing for the fences with two strikes. Pretty sure you can't hit a 6 run dinger. 

[TopGunn#22]

I agree DC, there were some VERY questionable called 3rd strikes on Twins hitters.  Especially on Castro which would have loaded the bases prior to Polanco's HR.  I can't wait for fully "robot" strike zones.