Rik19753

Tremendously depressing. I would be surprised to see another team in the MLB that has arrows pointing straight down for almost all of their players. Making matters even more disappointing is that most of these players already had down years in 2024, so the expectation wasn't that high for this season to begin with. Julien, Miranda, Martin, Lee, Wallner and Royce all had seasons in 2024 that ranged from disappointing to disastrous.

It's hard to lose production due to injury when you don't have players that produce in the first place.

You know it's a bad trade when the fans of the team buying are calling the price "fair" or "reasonable", which is all I am seeing on X.

Didn't watch the game so this isn't really a comment about this game, but if feels like this team just isn't built to maximize their chances to win when their better pitchers are on the mound, especially Ryan and Ober. Not that it matters when the hitting is this poor, at this point we wouldn't be able to win if prime Johan were pitching every night, but how many times over the years have we seen a great Ryan or Ober start go to waste because they are literally getting 0 run support? It seems like Ryan and Ober are pitchers that have a lot of variance in their performance. Most days they are dominant and give the team a great change to win, and some days they have off days where they are pounded and the game is over within the first few innings. So if the offense were consistently scoring 3-4 runs per game, most of their outings would turn into wins. But what we have is an offense that seems like it is build to explode for 10 runs on good days, but on most days have trouble even scoring multiple runs. Thus it seems like we aren't leveraging the Ryan and Ober outings to our advantage. The player evaluation and development is obviously poor, but the roster construction may just be the worst part about this team.

I'm not advocating for the Twins to call up a half-baked player or to stick with a player while he literally puts up the worst performance in the majors. Rather, I would just like to see them have faith in young unproven players like Julien and Miranda to grow like they did with some young players back then.

I really wish the Twins would stick to their young players and let them learn a little more like they did 25 years ago with Guzman. I understand that the team wasn't good then and could afford to give playing time to underperforming prospects, but it really feels like the current regime does not have the patience to let players develop at the major league level (especially when they seem to have all the patience in the world for underperforming veterans, but that is a topic for a different article). Examples like Wallner, Julien, Miranda, Varland come to mind. This is pure speculation, but I think it's likely that prospects that constantly have to worry about being sent down if they are performing badly will make choices that stunt their long-term growth in exchange for short-term success (adjusting their approach to deal with certain flaws in their game which exposes an even larger flaw, etc.). It certainly would help to explain the reason that most of our young hitters light the world on fire one month then can't hit a lick the next.

This. Uncertainty is better than guaranteed mediocrity. I liken it to the Vikings moving on from Kirk Cousins. There are certainly worse owners than the Pohlads, but you can't let that fact scare you from desiring somthing better.

I don't see how you look at that picture and fault Royce for not going to 2nd. That's a bang bang play at best and an easy safe call at worst. I was actually impressed that he chose not to turn the DP even though that was probably his first instinct given his fielding position. The throw was really bad but the decision making was spot-on IMO.

Currently, the chances of the Twins winning the division is 30%, according to Fangraphs (https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds). I feel this is quite high, given that the Twins have to be 4 games better than the Guardians (Currently 3GB + need to finish with better record due to tiebreaker) and they only have 40 remaining games to make up that ground. So, how realistic is it for the Twins to overtake Cleveland? 1. How many wins will they need and 2. how will they get to that total? For the first question, I think the Twins will need to finish with a 24-16 record (.600 win%). For the rest of the season, Fangraphs has CLE going 19.8 - 20.2. If we take that at face value, the Guardians are most likely to go 20-20 in their last 40 games, meaning the Twins need to go 24-16. Given that the Twins have played at a .566 winning percentage so far, they will need to up their game for the stretch run, which seems like a tough ask given the injuries starting to pile up. For the second question, I think the Twins need to steal 2 games to get to that total. That will likely require them winning 2 out of 3 against mid and bottom tier teams. Here are the rest of the Twins opponents, and my rough estimate of their expected record against each tier. Top tier teams (13 games) - 6-7 SD 3 ATL 3 CLE 4 BAL 3 Mid tier teams (21 games) - 12-9 TEX 2 TOR 3 TB 4 KC 3 BOS 3 CIN 3 STL 3 Bottom tier teams (6 games) - 4-2 LAA 3 MIA 3 The expected records adds up to a total record of 22-18, 2 short of the necessary total to overtake the Guardians. Thus, they will need to steal 2 games somewhere to reach their goal. IMO, the most realistic scenario requires the Twins to go 13-8 against the middle tier and 5-1 against the bottom tier, which adds up to a 18-9 record, or winning 2 out of 3. I have a hard time seeing the Twins having a winning record against the top tier teams. In conclusion, I think the Twins will need to finish somewhere around 24-16 and that path requires them to steal 2 games along the way. Certainly not unrealistic, but they will have to really beat up on the middle and bottom tier teams to get there.

It really does seem like there are a ton more injuries this year. It's sad that it's pretty much a matter of who can get through the season with fewer injuries, unless you have a superteam like the Dodgers. Quite frankly, the most positive thing that has happened for the Twins in terms of making the playoffs is Shane Bieber being out for the year.

Just too hard to watch this team for so many reasons. I know it's early but I might have to take a break until things start getting a little better. Seems like a decade ago that I couldn't wait for the season to start.

https://www.fox9.com/video/1432825 Listening to the presser, it didn't necessarily make me feel good about the state of his injury, but it is beyond impressive how upbeat and optimistic he is about the situation. As someone who is the same age as Royce, it amazes me how he is so mature at his age. His personality alone makes him my favorite Twins player.

There is a fine line between taking a loss every season and taking a loss occasionally. Nobody is advocating for the former. I think it is more than reasonable that in some seasons, especially those when the team seems ready to compete, that the owners take a minimal loss and invest in the team. Businesses take annual losses to invest in future opportunities all the time, I don't see why the Pohlads and the Twins can't do this. In fact, for a normal corporation, it would be considered malpractice to forego a prime opportunity to invest and to grow the product, just to pocket the savings.

Below are the career ERA, ERA in their best season(+140 IP), and road ERA of 4 former and current Twins pitchers. Can you guess who is who? Pitcher List Chris Paddack Dylan Bundy Anthony DeSclafani Tyler Mahle Career ERA Player A: 4.30 Player B: 4.20 Player C: 4.74 Player D: 4.21 Best ERA season Player A: 3.75 Player B: 3.17 Player C: 4.24 Player D: 3.33 Road ERA Player A: 3.73 Player B: 3.81 Player C: 4.84 Player D: 3.89 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- The answer is.... Player A: Tyler Mahle Player B: Anthony DeSclafani Player C: Dylan Bundy Player D: Chris Paddack I wanted to provide this exercise to point out that some people are hating too much on DeSclafani. Some opinions of DeSclafani I have read on this site in the last few days are "He isn't even a depth starter" "He shouldn't be in the rotation" "He's on the same level as Bundy" These takes are all insane. First of all, Bundy is nowhere close to DeSclafani. Bundy's best season doesn't even match up to DeSclafani's average season. So for those of you acting like the Twins just added another Bundy, or Shoemaker, or Happ, please stop. As for Paddack and Mahle, DeSclafani's numbers are remarkably similar. Most people look at Paddack right now and see a No.3 or No.4 starter. Why can't the same be said for DeSclafani? Both are coming back from injury. As for Mahle, the Rangers just paid 22 million to get one and a half years out of Mahle who is recovering from TJS. There is clearly value in these players. I know DeSclafani is coming off a meh season (which is mostly because of injury, like Joe Ryan), but looking at the body of work there shouldn't be an argument about whether he belongs in the rotation. DeSclafani is definitely someone we should be taking a shot on with our No.5 spot, and if we get a healthy season from him, he may be the answer we need for the No.2 starter.

Because signing a Solano is going to kill any chance of Miranda getting a promotion barring injury. If Miranda is raking in AAA in April, are they going to cut Solano to make room for him? Absolutely not. Nor are they going to carry Kirilloff, Solano and Miranda on the same roster when those players provide tremendously limited positional flexibility. Also, the chances are pretty high that Miranda's production collapsing last year is due to injury. It's just so rare that someone that once showed he was a competent major league hitter suddenly can't hit AAA pitching without something going on behind the scenes. Similar to Kirilloff of previous years, the FO should have a pretty good idea of what they can expect from him given his condition in the spring. The answer at 1B should be to go with Miranda/Severino + and to look to see who sticks IMO.

The fact that the Twins set a K record doesn't automatically mean that the Twins' approach is wrong. There is a possibility that the Twins are just ahead of the curve. In 10 years, we could be saying that a 30% K rate is normal, and that in 2023 teams weren't selling out for power enough. As I said, there is no way to know the perfect balance because every team plays under different conditions, with different players with different skill sets. Maybe the Twins striking out at an unprecedented rate maximized the production from their lineup.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-new-vladimir-guerrero-jr-is-holding-the-old-one-back/ The grass is always greener on the other side. If you don't want to read the article, here is the summary: Vladimir Guerrero traded quality of contact in his kill zone for quantity of contact everywhere over the past two years. This led to fewer Ks but fewer hard hit balls. The end result was a 118 OPS+ which was nearly 50 lower than his 166 OPS+ in 2021, and a ISO smaller than that of TJ Friedl's. This is the exact opposite of what happened to Kepler last year. Kepler K'd more, walked less, but hit the ball much harder and was much better overall. Obviously, it's important to strike a balance between power and Ks. But nobody knows, and nobody will know, where the perfect balance is. Maybe, just maybe, the Twins are doing it the right way and getting the maximum out of their players, and other teams aren't selling out enough for power.

If they are suddenly open to spending, I would rather spend that money on Snell or Montgomery. Snell or Montgomery($25M AAV) + Rhys Hoskins($10M AAV) + trade of Polanco for young controllable CF depth(-$10M AAV) rounds out the roster very nicely IMO, and you wouldn't have to pay up in prospect capital to get a frontline starter.

Crazy to think not a single player from the White Sox made the list. Isn't Colson Montgomery, their top rated prospect, a SS?

I don't know if this has been discussed anywhere, but how about Yusei Kikuchi for Kepler? The values are very similar and the Twins get a solid lefty starter in the rotation. Both are on one year deals and are paid similar amounts. I'm not tremendously high on Kikuchi as a starter, but you can certainly do worse than him as your 5th starter. I do like the idea of having him out of the bullpen in the playoffs. I think he can play a role similar to the one Varland played in 2023.

According to baseball trade values, the difference in value between Vazquez and Jansen is approximately Marco Raya or David Festa. I suspect it would be a little less in actuality, but even then, I can't see Falvey paying such a high price to offload Vazquez only one year after signing him.

Wow, Tampa at 84.5 seems super low... if I were a betting man I would hammer the over on that.

Not to mention they racked up those negative WAR in less than a season, whereas it took Hendriks and Felton 3+ years to put up similar numbers! It's truly astonishing how bad those 2 were.

Here are the rankings if you want to see them for yourself https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/starting-pitcher-2024-fantasy-rankings/

Reading comments and articles on Twins Daily, I think Twins fans currently perceive Ryan and Ober as good-but-not-great pitchers that you preferably don't want to start in playoff games. The fact that Ryan was far from great in the 2nd half and that both pitchers were underwhelming in their playoff starts seem to reinforce this idea. While I generally agree with this perception, a recent post on Fangraphs has me thinking that we may be selling Ryan and Ober short. Fangraphs released their 2024 fantasy baseball SP rankings, and they had Ryan and Ober as the 30th and 31st ranked SPs, respectively. Obviously, fantasy baseball rankings are different from actual rankings in that they place some value on wins and Ks, but I think you can use them as an estimate as to how players stack up relative to the rest of the league. Some interesting takeaways from this ranking are ・Ryan and Ober are fringe 1st starters/elite 2nd starters ・More than one third of teams (12 teams to be exact) don't have any pitchers ranked as highly as Ryan or Ober ・While the loss of Gray (ranked 25th) hurts, Ryan and Ober are pretty much in the same tier ・While we dream about trade targets like Luzardo (26th), Mitch Keller (50th), Bryce Miller (51st), Bryan Woo (55th) as playoff caliber starters, even if the Twins acquire one of them the playoff rotation may be Lopez, Ryan and Ober ・Teams can make playoff runs with much worse staffs. ARI: Gallen(7th), Kelly(59th), Pfaadt(66th) TEX: Montgomery(41st), Eovaldi(60th), Heaney(114th) This has me thinking that maybe it isn't the worst thing in the world if we don't end up trading for a top of the rotation arm.