Rik19753

I'll be the first to admit that I was one of those people. I just didn't see any formula for success, but I couldn't have been more wrong. As a Minnesota sports fan, most times it works to my advantage when I try to be overly pessimistic, and I think this might be the first time I've been proven wrong. I could get used to this.

It probably depends on the definition of "pipeline". If it means coming from within our own system, I guess we really haven't see it yet. If it includes trades, FA pickups, etc., then I think the FO has done a fantastic job. To me, the most important aspect of the term "pipeline" is sustainability. As long as we can sustain this level of productivity from our pitchers it doesn't really matter where the talent is coming from IMO. The FO has shown a tremendous ability to trade for quality pitchers with the addition of Gray, Lopez, Ryan, Maeda and Paddack, and even though that might not be what we initially imagined, they have shown that they can make it work. Even with the departures of Gray and Maeda, I'm confident that they can and will pull off another shrewd trade to replenish the lost depth.

I didn't say the Twins are better than the Orioles. But the projections certainly think so, and it's not hard to see why. To put it simply, the Orioles vastly overachieved. Their run differential is indicative of a 94-68 team rather than a 101-61 team (the Twins run differential amounts to a 93-69 record). Having a good bullpen is a nice way to overachieve because you can win close games, but it doesn't give you that big of an advantage. Then, consider that the they actually overachieved when it comes to scoring runs. Their wOBA (which weighs all events like walks, singles, doubles, etc. based on their expected run values) is 14th in the league (the Twins are 7th), yet they've scored the 7th most runs. You can point to good baserunning or clutch hitting for the discrepancy, but again, baserunning can only do you so much and clutch hitting isn't a repeatable skill. Looking at the pitching side, you can't dispute that their relief pitching is top notch, but with Felix Bautista out they suddenly look a lot more vulnerable. I don't know if you would take them over the Twins relief corps right now. But the biggest problem is their starting pitching. They are slated to run out Kyle Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez and Dean Kremer as their main starters, and possibly Kyle Gibson as their 4th. Starting with Bradish, his 2.83 ERA is certainly sparkly, but the underlying numbers point to him being an-above average starter and certainly not an ace. Grayson Rodriguez had a nice 2nd half, but his seasonal ERA of 4.35 is probably closer to the talent level that he is at currently. Kremer has a 4.12 ERA but a hideous 4.93 xERA, which is due to the fact that he gives up a lot of hard contact. His K% and BB% are not nearly good enough to mask that hard contact. Even if you don't think the Twins are better than the Orioles, can you really say with confidence, without pointing to their record, that they are superior to the Twins?

Now that the miserable playoff losing streak is in the rearview mirror, let's look ahead to the ultimate goal: winning the World Series. According to Fangraphs, our Minnesota Twins have the second highest chance in the AL of winning the WS following the win over the Blue Jays. They have the Twins winning it all in 7.1% of their simulations, which is about 14 to 1 odds. https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds Here are the odds of each team making it to, and winning, the World Series. Astros: 35.2% to win the AL, 17.1% to win WS Twins: 17.7%, 7.1% Rangers: 16.1%, 5.7% Orioles: 16.7%, 5.5% Rays: 8.5%, 3.6% Blue Jays: 5.9%, 2.5% Although the Twins have similar odds of making the WS as the Rangers and Orioles, they have much better odds of winning the WS. This means the projections think that the Twins are head and shoulders better than the Rangers and Orioles. Despite the fact that the Twins face the Astros in the 2nd round, who the projections think are the clear favorites, the Twins have the second best odds of winning the AL, indicating that if they make it past the Astros the Twins will probably be favored against any team they will face in the ALCS. All in all, I think the playoffs are shaping up very favorably for the Twins. Getting to face the Astros in the Division Series as opposed to the Championship Series is good if you feel the Twins are the inferior team ( I do) because shorter series are more about luck. Knocking out the Blue Jays in the first round is great because they are probably a better team than the Rangers or Orioles. The Rays likely being knocked out in the 1st round is good because they are also probably a better team than the Rangers or Orioles. It's not hard to make the argument that the Rangers and Orioles are actually the two worst teams in the field from a team quality perspective, and they are the likely opposition in the ALCS. I'm getting way ahead of myself here, but we've waited 19 years for this and I just couldn't resist :)

I noticed that also. Maybe it's just me seeing things, but his facial expressions during his post-game interview looked like he was trying to hide pain and frustration. I wouldn't be surprised to not see him in the lineup tomorrow. It's a very happy day overall, but you can't help but be worried about him the rest of the playoffs.

Was is that long? I honestly thought it was less than two months. Anyways, I probably should have said that it's a blessing that every RP is healthy for the playoffs. There isn't a single guy currently injured that you would replace any of these guys with, and I find that remarkable.

Having Varland and Maeda, along with the return of Stewart, completely changes the landscape of the bullpen. If Paddack can also be a weapon that's what, 8 deep? Duran, Jax, Thielbar, Stewart, Pagan, Varland, Maeda, Paddack. Should bode well given that our SP's aren't going to be on long leashes in the playoffs. As bad as our injury luck has been with our hitters, the healthiness of the pitching staff is remarkable. We really only lost Mahle, and not a single one of our RPs were gone for an extended period of time.

While I agree with everyone that anointing Varland the closer would be premature, I don't necessarily think you can point to the long balls as the primary reason. Sure, he gave up a ton of HRs as a SP, but with the added velo we are talking about a completely different pitcher. Jax gave up more than 2.5 HRs/9 as a starter, now that number is under 1.

I think you rest him until the last possible moment and (hopefully) unleash him in the playoffs. If he can't play, that's fine, our team isn't reliant on him anymore. Maybe next year they can just shut him down until he is absolutely needed, whether that be to fight for the division in August or for the playoffs in October. Given his lack of durability, I wouldn't be opposed to sitting him for the entire regular season, then activating him for the playoff run. Obviously that is never going to happen, but if one were to try to maximize the Twins' odds of winning the World Series and not of obtaining a winning season, that would be the best plan.

I had no problem with how Rocco managed the pen. As has been the case often this year, he was put in a tough situation because the offense failed to put up additional run support after jumping out to a lead. When your starter only goes 3 innings and the offense doesn't score in the second half of a tight, extra inning game, the result is you blow through your bullpen one way or another. He would probably have given a longer leash to Funderburk, Winder or Headrick had the Twins scored more runs to make the lead comfortable.

If you ask the average Twins fan what they think of the season so far, I'm sure the answer would not be very positive. Even though there have been some stretches of good baseball, more often than not they are immediately followed by a losing streak leaving us frustrated that the team can't maintain a steady level of success. However, I feel like we are letting expectations get in the way of what might actually be the dawn of a new and exciting era of Twins baseball. If for one moment we forget that we play in a terrible division that we should be running away with, forget that the last 2 years of Twins baseball has largely been a disappointment, and imagine that we are coming off a rebuild, wouldn't we be much more excited for this team? The Reds, who have enjoyed a winning season on the backs of rookies like McLain, Steer and Cruz, are seen as a tremendous success. The fans are excited about the team not only because they are good this year but because they can dream on a brighter future lead by their rookies. The Twins, on the other hand, have a similar record as the Reds, and have similarly gotten great production from their rookies, yet the vibe is mostly negative because they were built to win this year and have largely performed under expectations. But if we choose to think about this season merely as a stepping stone for a better and brighter future led by our rookies, maybe we can simply appreciate this team more and give them a pass for some of their shortcomings. Don't get me wrong, I'm not trying to say that we shouldn't have high expectations or that the FO should be let off the hook for building a mediocre team. I just think that the vibe surrounding this team would be completely different if we thought of this team as a young group spearheaded by Lewis, Wallner, Julien and Kirilloff as opposed to a team playing below expectations led by Correa and Buxton.

I'm an analytics nerd, but even I have a hard time wrapping my head around the fact that Gallo has been average. That being said, I don't think wRC+ is grossly overvaluing his production this season, it's just that he has been so bad for so long that our perception of him has soured. We have to remember that he was putting up MVP type numbers in March and April. He was pretty much the only bright spot in the lineup and singlehandedly won us some games. If you look at his numbers from May on his production has been 18 percent below average, which I feel is much more in line with what we think of Gallo nowadays. I'm sure if Gallo's production had been more even and if he had come through in clutch situations more we would view his season a little differently.

The two examples you gave are completely different IMO. The first example does indeed illustrate a flaw of wOBA in that it fails to consider productive outs. In certain situations a hitter's job is to just move the runner over; However, in the eyes of wOBA, doing so successfully won't earn you any points. The second example isn't a flaw because the fact that the extra base earned by a double might be meaningless depending on the sequence of events is indeed considered in the weighing of various events.

Teams definitely need to learn from the Padres' and Angels' mistakes. I would throw the White Sox in that bin as well. IMO the single biggest reason these teams flopped weren't that they spent big money or that they made splashy trades; it's that they failed to supplement the stars that they had/got with role players. They didn't have, and probably didn't have the organizational ability to find, the Brock Stewarts and Willi Castros of the world that stepped up when called upon. That is what separates these teams from the likes of the Astros, Dodgers and Rays that don't need to find help from outside the organization to get league-average production. So yes, while some big contracts from the Angels, Padres and White Sox didn't work out well, they were doomed to fail either way because they have a weak foundation. The question is, which group does the Twins and the Falvine regime fall into?

I was also one of the people that wasn't very high on Wallner. Now I'm firmly on the bandwagon. I don't think we realize just how good he's been so far. He's put up a .406 xwOBA (metric for overall offensive production that takes into account quality of contact, K% and BB%). That puts him 7th in the Majors for hitters with 50+ batted balls. The top 15 players are Judge, Acuna, Seager, Ohtani, Alvarez, Freeman, Wallner, Betts, Sean Murphy, Juan Soto, Olson, Tucker, Trout, Vlad Jr. and Alonso (16th is Tatis). That is ridiculous company. Obviously, I'm not expecting this production to continue. There's no doubt that he's going to go through some stretches that reminds us of the 2023 version of Gallo. But when the upside is this good, we need to give him every opportunity to prove himself.

There is no doubt that the tools are present. Another amazing Wallner stat is his .406 xwOBA (metric for overall offensive production that takes into account quality of contact, K% and BB%). He ranks 7th in the Majors for hitters with 50+ batted balls. The top 15 players are Judge, Acuna, Seager, Ohtani, Alvarez, Freeman, Wallner, Betts, Sean Murphy, Juan Soto, Olson, Tucker, Trout, Vlad Jr. and Alonso (16th is Tatis). That is ridiculous company. There are probably times where he will look like the 2023 version of Joey Gallo, but when he is going good, the upside is tremendous.

Let's hope momentum isn't as important as you say, because the Twins have all the negative momentum in the world with their 18 straight playoff losses haha.

I didn't watch the whole game, but it seems like the Twins were killed by BABIP luck today. Tigers: 15 hits on 27 BIP for a .556 BABIP Twins: 5 hits on 22 BIP for a .227 BABIP Both teams had 2 HRs and the Twins had 5 walks to the Tigers' 2. The Twins actually had more hard hit balls than the Tigers as well. It just wasn't our day. There's nothing you can do about it. Let's just hope that tomorrow our luck will be better.

Good thing we have Wallner, Julien, Kirilloff and hopefully Royce soon. Their individual performances are the only thing keeping me interested in the team at this point. I find myself caring less and less about each win and loss because I just can't imagine this team going anywhere in the playoffs.

Recently, I've become somewhat of an Angels fan because I want to see Ohtani and Trout in the playoffs. In the Angels game against the Braves today, there was a situation in the third inning when there was a runner on third with two outs, and Matt Olson was walked intentionally. At that moment, it took me a moment to register what was happening because I wasn't used to intentional walks happening so early in games. Obviously, you see them a lot in certain extra inning situations where the runners don't mean much, but I couldn't remember the last time I'd saw one so early in a game. So I thought, maybe the Twins don't have a hitter that is dangerous enough to warrant intentional walks? I went to Fangraphs and looked up IBBs by team excluding 9th and extra inning situations. Lo and behold, the Twins were dead last in the MLB with 0 IBB before the 9th inning. I guess that's to be expected, when your supposed best hitters in Buxton and Correa aren't even putting up league-average offensive production. When will be the next time that one of our hitters gets walked intentionally when the runner actually means something? Who will that player be? I suspect it's going to be Julien, but given that he's still a relatively unproven rookie, it may take a while. Depressing, isn't it? (You can see for yourself using this link: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/splits-leaderboards?splitArr=45,44,46,47,48,49,50,51&splitArrPitch=&position=B&autoPt=false&splitTeams=false&statType=team&statgroup=1&startDate=2023-03-01&endDate=2023-11-01&players=&filter=&groupBy=season&wxTemperature=&wxPressure=&wxAirDensity=&wxElevation=&wxWindSpeed=&sort=13,1)

I would agree with you if the Twins were in 1st place in a normal division. Unfortunately, they aren't. They have the 6th worst record in the AL despite the fact that they have the advantage of playing a softer schedule. Teams with better or similar records are selling. Why shouldn't the Twins? The 'every team has a chance' adage only holds true because playoff teams are, in most cases, the cream of the crop. A 90 win team can get hot and reel off 3 series wins against 100 win teams. But if we were to imagine a world in which the Athletics were somehow awarded a playoff spot with the team that they have now, should they be buying because 'anything can happen in the playoffs'? No, they shouldn't. At some point a line has to be drawn and we need to be realistic. It's not like trading Maeda, Gray and Kepler means completely punting on the season. Their odds of winning the World Series are just going to go down from something like 0.5% to 0.4%. We don't need to cling to that 0.1%.

Agree completely with the others. We need much more than a right-handed bat and mediocre relief pitchers to compete. Unless you are going to make a splash move, sell your assets for controllable players. Trading Kepler for a young reliever with multiple years of control and Gray for a decent right handed bat with control + a lower level prospect or two would be a nice middle ground.

If this is the FO's line of thinking I despise it. The goal isn't to be one and done in the playoffs. It's to win the World Series. Sure, as a fan, I'd rather the Twins make the playoffs than miss it, and I'd definitely like them to end their playoff losing streak. But when you are content with the upside of the team being winning one series in the playoffs, that is a seriously flawed mindset. We either go all in or we sell. There should be no middle ground. Either go get a Goldschmidt, an Arenado, a Hader, and commit to the season. Or sell Gray, Maeda, Kepler, whoever. The Guardians sold. The Angels bought. Just pick a side and stick to it.

That floor is baked into prospect rankings. If Manzardo played a good shortstop while hitting like he does he would be a top 5 prospect. Much like CES, he is ranked highly despite the fact that he plays 1B, which says a lot about his bat.

Have Sands and Winder really got their chances though? Sands still hasn't topped 50 innings in the majors and his stuff looks legit. He's posted some excellent numbers in AAA this year and is still only 25. Winder was a serviceable starter only a year ago in his rookie season. They haven't been world-beaters, but I think it's much too early to say they "flopped".