Rik19753

Is Correa too hurt to sprint? I don't see how a grounder hit that weakly can turn into a double play.

I'm probably in the minority here, but I don't mind the decision to pull Gray after 4. He only gave up 2 runs, but if the sequencing was worse it could easily have been 4. Moran's implosion makes it look bad, but Gray was probably only going to pitch 1 more inning even if he'd stayed in. It's astounding how different Pagan looks when he's put in the game when the Twins are trailing. It's a shame that he can't be that calm and collected when we have the lead. I would bet my house(if I had one) that he would have botched the throw to 2nd when the runner took off if the Twins were winning.

I feel like Rocco and the front office are often overdoing things when it comes to platoons, especially in pinch-hit situations. Pinch hitters historically perform below their talent level, so pretty much the only situation where you can analytically justify using a pinch hitter is when you are replacing a really bad hitter with a really good hitter. When it comes to the Twins, it seems like they mostly replace good hitters in a bad matchup with average hitters that have platoon advantages, and I don't think that's doing the team any good.

Honestly, while it was nice to score runs for a change, nothing about the approach has changed. The Twins still struck out in 17 of their 41 PAs. Meanwhile, they only walked once. That's a 41.5% K% and 2.4% BB%. When you take out the 3 HRs, out of the remaining 20 AB that resulted in balls in play, 9 were hits. That's a .450 BABIP, which is tremendously high. The bad approach was masked by the long ball and good batted ball luck for a day, but it's still there.

Honestly, I'm not sure how much of the pitching surge we can attribute to Pete Maki, but since we are quick to criticize coaches when things are going wrong, I think it's only fair that we acknowledge Pete for helping build what has largely been a dominant pitching staff. Last year, when he had to fill in as the pitching coach after Wes' abrupt departure, he wasn't put in a great spot. He was probably as surprised as every one of us that he was suddenly handed the reigns to the pitching staff. But after a year of preparation he has done a tremendous job, and he hasn't been getting the credit that he deserves. I'm pretty sure I've yet to see one comment praising Pete, whereas when Wes came in and did his thing a couple of years ago he was given a ton of credit. I imagine if Pete had come from outside the organization we would be heaping praises on him right now. So, on behalf of Twins Territory, I would like to thank Pete for doing a great job with the pitching staff. Keep up the good work!

Actually, despite the production, Twins hitters struck out in 14 out of their 43 PAs yesterday, which is 32.6%. So I doubt they changed their approach, they just happened to look good yesterday because the hits were falling.

While I share your frustrations about the offense, you can't compare the run totals in individual games to the league average in runs scored. When you look at runs scored per game, the distribution is going to look something like this. The median for runs scored is going to be smaller than the average, and given that the Twins' median for runs scored this year is 4, I would say that is right where they are supposed to be.

I have absolutely no knowledge about college players, but if Skenes is "the best college pitching prospect in recent memory", why is there even a possibility that he is going to be available at No.5? Are the 4 other hitters "the best hitting prospects in recent memory"? Also, while I understand the idea that you'd like to draft the player that has the most value to other teams, in reality I don't think drafts work that way. I have a hard time thinking that the any FO will prioritize a player's trade value when they are making a top 5 pick, no matter how badly they may want a trade chip.

I think the value that Kepler holds is that he is a known commodity. We can pencil him in for a average-ish offensive season while providing solid defense. If 100 is an average player, we know he is going to be somewhere around 90~110. On the other hand, we don't know what Wallner will do over a full season. His range is something like 70~130. If you have a lineup full of proven players, I think you take the upside of Wallner. But in the Twins' case, we are relying far too heavily on high-variance players. We have no idea what guys like Kirilloff, Julien, Miranda, Wallner, Royce and Larnach are going to do. Heck, with the injury concerns with our star players, we can't even count on great seasons from Buxton, Correa and Polanco. Gallo is a huge question mark as well. So in this case, there is value to be had in having a guy like Kepler whose production you can pretty much pencil in before the season is even played. Trust me, Kepler is far from being my favorite player. But we all complain about how inconsistent this offense is, and if we had more Wallners and less Keplers, the lineup would be even more inconsistent IMO.

I have mixed feelings about this. While I understand and agree with most of the points made in this article, I think we also need to look at the positives in this situation too. Last year, we were clamoring for depth after the disastrous September where we succumbed to injuries, so I can't really fault the FO for adding, and keeping, as much depth as they possibly could. Although it sucks that Wallner is put in a situation where he likely can't claim a roster spot no matter how well he plays, it's a nice luxury to have him as the 5th or 6th outfielder instead of Celestino or Contreras. Not to mention, there is a great chance that one, if not both of Gallo and Kepler will be gone next year. So this is not a situation where Wallner is blocked for the foreseeable future, it is only temporary. Also, while it's easier to get excited about the young prospect with a high ceiling, we really need the boring but reliable guys like Kepler, especially with the way our roster is constructed. In order to incorporate rookies, you need to have some dependable stars that are going to pick up the slack if said rookies struggle. For the Twins, that is sadly not the case, as Correa and Buxton are both tremendously streaky and injury-prone. In order to incorporate young players into the mix, you have to have solid top 5 in the lineup IMO. You see the Yankees being able to give guys like Volpe and Oswaldo Cabrera a chance because Judge, LeMahieu, Rizzo and Torres are consistent. The same goes for Baty and Alvarez on the Mets, because they have guys like Nimmo, Lindor, McNeil and Alonso that anchor the lineup. The Twins, on the other hand, are relying on guys like Kirilloff and Julien to produce at the top of the lineup, when they should be hitting towards the bottom. Since we don't have the luxury of having that dependable star, we need consistent production from every spot in the lineup, and in that regard, Kepler is better than Wallner.

Don't look now, but Castro has the 3rd most WAR for a position player on the Twins after yesterday's game. The other 4 players in the top 5 are Buxton, Gallo, Jeffers and Michael A. Taylor. This year is tremendously weird.

The lack of production from Jose Salas is alarming. I skim through these minor league affiliate reports every day and I don't recall seeing his name mentioned. I know he's still very young and has room to improve, but it seems like good prospects find a way to shine even if they aren't hitting, either through baserunning or defense, and from what I can tell he hasn't really been doing anything notable.

Great article. These 3 have definitely been impressive recently. It's really hard to recognize and appreciate the positive performances during rough stretches, so it was nice of Cody to highlight these 3. This year I have been pretty encouraged by some of the low-leverage guys in the bullpen. Moran, De Leon, Brock Stewart actually look the part, and I don't get the urge to duck for cover like I did last year when guys like Duffey, Joe Smith, Pagan, Megill and Cotten were pitching. Even Pagan looks at least a smidge better this year than he did last year, though that is a tremendously low bar to clear. The long-relief pitchers, Sands and Headrick, have performed admirably as well when given the chance. All in all, I still feel as confident about this bullpen as I have in a while even though they've had a tough time recently. As for Castro, I feel like he is really underrated. He's doing everything that we were expecting from Nick Gordon, which is to say, a little bit of everything. His defensive versatility has been invaluable giving the minor injuries cropping up all over the diamond, and he has often provided sparks with his speed. I think if he were a mid-level free agent signing instead of a minor league free agent, we would be appreciating his addition more. He's still young (younger than Gordon, actually) and has 4 more years left before becoming a free agent, so I would not be surprised or disappointed to see him stick around as a utility player long-term.

It's ironic that this was probably the only offseason that Guardians fans weren't complaining about not making any big additions to their offense, yet this year their offense is worse than ever. It's just so hard for players who had good rookie seasons to continue that in their sophomore year, as evidenced by Julio Rodriguez, Miranda, and all of the young players on the Guardians.

Good start. I hope the offense isn't content with these 2 runs and keeps adding.

No, they are not. The Guardians' -31 point differential may be bad, but the Tigers' -48 differential is worse. They are clearly over-performing. Greene and Torkelson can turn into stars and they still wouldn't have an average lineup. They have 3 players with more than 50 PA that have a OPS higher than .700 and none have a OPS above .800. The Twins have 9 players with a .700+ OPS and 4 with a .800 OPS.

I always go to MLB daily lineups on Rotowire (https://www.rotowire.com/baseball/daily-lineups.php) to see the Twins lineup for the day, and they had Sean Manaea expected to be the primary pitcher two hours before the game. So even if they didn't expect Manaea to come in, they should have at least prepared for that possibility. And even if they didn't expect Manaea to come in, it still doesn't justify Rocco's moves. If anything, if they knew he had thrown a bullpen session, they should've stuck with Julien and Kirilloff knowing that Manaea didn't have a ton of bullets in him.

While those numbers, as well as being 30th in K%, don't paint a pretty picture, it also doesn't explain why this offense looks so bad. If you look at these stats, you would think that their offense is average. And it is, when you look at runs scored, as they are actually a very solid 12th. Their problem isn't that they aren't scoring runs, it's that they are horrible when the stakes are high. The Twins have a -2.28 WPA in clutch situations, which is 29th in the league. This essentially means that if they had hit at a league average in clutch situations, they would be 28-20 or 27-21, not 25-23. Normally, these things even out as the season go on, because clutch hitting isn't thought to be a repeatable skill. So if this were happening to some other team, I would be confident in saying that they are playing below their talent level and that they will be better going forward. However, in the case of the Twins, I can't help but think this is all connected to the playoff losing streak and the bad juju that seemingly surrounds this franchise. We've seen time and time again that the Twins can't perform up to their normal level when the pressure is on, and sadly, I think the lack of clutch hitting is just more of the same.

Earlier in the season Jax was definitely getting unlucky, but recently it seems he is just getting hit hard. Too bad we don't have anyone to replace him in the 7th.

The Angels have made some really questionable moves so far. Leaving Detmers in to face Farmer when Farmer is far better against southpaws, then bringing in Tucker Davidson and his 6+ ERA in a tie game. Also bringing in Weiss, who has all of 13 IP in the bigs and has not pitched once this year, to face Correa in a 1 run game. Those bullpen moves are the equivalent of bringing in Cole Sands and Jose De Leon.

That ball was crushed, I thought for a second it was Buxton batting.

CASTRO!!

Thank god for Kirilloff!

Got to think Kirilloff pinch hits here.

Quick question: Where do you think the Twins rank in numbers of grounded into double plays? My first thought when it comes to Twins and double plays is that Correa has got to be the league leader in GIDP. It seems like he grounds into double plays more often than any player that I've ever seen. Turns out, he has 7 GIDPs this year, which is tied for 11th in the league. Miranda also has 7 GIDPs this year. Now, back to the initial question. Below are the rankings of the teams that have the most GIDPs. 1. MIA (41) 2. MIL (41) 3. ATL (40) ... 26. MIN (26) ... 30. LAD (16!) https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=0&season=2023&month=0&season1=2023&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2023-01-01&enddate=2023-12-31&sort=19,d I was quite surprised to see the Twins so low on the list. With MIA and MIL looking so similar to MIN, I thought the Twins were at the top, which would have been much less surprising for me. But it seems that the Twins have been relatively good at avoiding double plays. Given that Miranda and Correa account for 14 of the 26 GIDPs, the rest of the team has been tremendous at avoiding them. Going by percentage of GIDPs in GIDP opportunities, the Twins are 24th at 8.5%. The Marlins have grounded into a DP 15.5%(!) of the time when given the chance. They've had the least opportunities to GIDP, yet they have the most GIDPs, which is mind-blowing. https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2023-situational-batting.shtml