Three Offseason Decisions Already Hurting the Twins

[Cody Pirkl]

The Minnesota Twins are treading water with their current health situation, and they’re trying to stay afloat until critical players return. Three decisions the team made this winter are already making this task more difficult.

Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

With several star players out already, the Twins' depth is immediately being tested. Unlike in previous years (when insulating the roster was a priority), however, the payroll situation left the team exposed. Three choices they made, in particular, are coming back to haunt them now.

Letting It Ride with the Rotation
In 2023, the Twins opened the season with Bailey Ober and Louie Varland in Triple-A as depth arms. It wasn’t long until they were both needed, and each wound up carrying a substantial workload, even though the Twins had one of the healthier rotations in baseball.

This year, they did the opposite. Their only starting pitching depth was Simeon Woods Richardson and Brent Headrick in St. Paul, with Varland opening the season in the rotation. Headrick is currently on the IL, and Varland is getting hammered in MLB so far.

Several options were available for a reasonable price, but the Twins put a hard stop on spending. It’s possible Varland could iron out his issues in the minor leagues, but regardless of performance, he will get a lot more run in the MLB rotation. Through 14 innings, he has a 3.21 HR/9 and an 8.36 ERA. 

The Twins did, of course, acquire Anthony DeSclafani in the Jorge Polanco trade in late January. They were rolling the dice on his elbow, knowing that an injury had shortened his 2023 season and that he wasn't entirely out of the woods in terms of needing surgery. Indeed, he did, and he's now out for the season. Though it was necessitated by their ownership-enforced financial constraints, the gamble on DeSclafani turned out to be a calamitous one.

Going Cheap at 1B/DH
Many Twins fans hoped for another high-upside bat this winter, but it wasn’t in the cards. Instead, 38-year-old Carlos Santana was brought in for his sure-handed defense and discerning eye at the plate. He was immediately considered an everyday player, despite his pedestrian .724 OPS from the left side in 2023. In 2024, fans are begging for pedestrian output from the veteran first baseman.

Santana has been one of the worst hitters in baseball. At his age, many are already starting to wonder if the Twins caught him at the end of the road. There are no signs of his once-elite plate discipline, and he’s striking out more than ever. His slash line of .135/.224/.154 is good for an 11 wRC+. With the injury situation, the Twins have no choice but to write his name into the lineup every day.

The front office may have targeted Santana regardless of payroll, with him having spent years in Cleveland and having veteran status. Their choice not to (or inability to) aim higher has already hurt the team, as Santana has been the least valuable player on the roster with a -0.4 fWAR. The payroll situation and his status as a veteran will almost surely afford him extra time on the roster, as we’ve seen so often.

Tendering Kyle Farmer
Farmer had a solid 2023 with the Twins, but his $6.3 million projected salary seemed like an easy non-tender situation, so much so that Farmer himself was surprised when the Twins brought him back. That decision has looked worse and worse ever since.

The Twins went on to massively cut payroll, making that dollar amount a real headscratcher for a 33-year-old weak-side platoon player. That money could have been much better spent on an arm to push Varland into a depth role or put toward first base to find a better option than Santana. The case could be made that we’re lucky to have him, now that he’s needed on a near-everyday basis, but Farmer has been right there with Santana as one of the least valuable players on the roster, despite not seeing the field nearly as often.

The cherry on top of the Farmer situation is that, with Correa out, he doesn’t even appear to be the primary shortstop. His price tag becomes even more questionable if he’s mostly an option at non-premium positions. The amount of money is small enough that it shouldn’t be an issue, but the Twins made it one with their payroll slashing.

To a degree, the Twins were destined to struggle, given the number of injuries that have already occurred this season. While acknowledging this, it’s fair to note that decisions made along the way set them up for total catastrophe if a handful of players went down. It seems that the payroll situation made the bitter 2022 season a distant memory, and now all the Twins can do is hope the season isn’t already lost when their star players return.

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[Karbo]

What's even worse than the decision to sign Santana and Margot, is the fact they probably won't move on from them as the season goes on.

[umterp23]

The Santana move is probably the easiest move to rectify.  You wrote:  With the injury situation, the Twins have no choice but to write his name into the lineup every day.  I would disagree, you release him, trade him regardless perceived injury situation.  We have DH covered, we have 1st base covered, Santana offers nothing else defensively and is offensive as a hitter.  Thank him for his time.  AK, Julien, Miranda are your options and that is plenty good vs penciling in Santana.

Rotation major setback for sure.  Varland is pen material where you piggy back off of Paddock to get through a game.  SWR let him fly and see how long it lasts, may not be long but Varland hasn't shown consistency.

Farmer, like him, but tendering him at that price tag is, well we know, hampering other moves to improve this roster

[old nurse]

Santana was about a 1 war player the last 2 years. His contract reflected that. It is Gallo 2.0 turning into Nelson Cruz in Tampa Bay  Risk/Reward. Risk is ahead at this point

the market for starting pitchers  you might can cherry pick a starter that was an equivalent to a Polanco contract. There might have been a trade to be had,, there might not have been. Other teams have to like your players more than you do. They reportedly liked Mahle better than Castillo. They really gave up more than the Reds got for Castillo. Castillo hasn’t been too good this year so the birds would be out on that trade had it happened. Yet another reason for caution with trading for older pitchers 

[FlyingFinn]

The Farmer, Margot and Santana moves are really looking bad right now. Take that money and put it to one starting pitcher or someone like Hoskins and/or Taylor would have been far better at this point.

[Eris]

Kyle Farmer played most of the 2022 season at SS for the Reds, turning in slightly above league average defense. He was expected to provide insurance for the infield, including as a longer term substitute at SS if needed. I think one of the reasons he was retained was due to Correa’s injury. Why he is not the primary SS now that Correa is out is the question that should be explored. 

[Woof Bronzer]

Good piece but I think fans are going to have to firmly push back on the injury scapegoat that the Twins are inevitably going to trot out.  Let's not fall for it.  Just about every team is dealing with a huge injury or 2 (Bieber's season ending injury is much more impactful to the AL Central race just to name one.  Strider, Cole, etc.)  And the Twins know full well that injuries happen in waves with this team.  They saw last year how many starters it takes to get through a season - then actively decided to thin out the depth of the rotation.  That decision is hurting the team as much as any other.  

[Cody Pirkl]

14 minutes ago, umterp23 said:

The Santana move is probably the easiest move to rectify.  You wrote:  With the injury situation, the Twins have no choice but to write his name into the lineup every day.  I would disagree, you release him, trade him regardless perceived injury situation.  We have DH covered, we have 1st base covered, Santana offers nothing else defensively and is offensive as a hitter.  Thank him for his time.  AK, Julien, Miranda are your options and that is plenty good vs penciling in Santana.

Rotation major setback for sure.  Varland is pen material where you piggy back off of Paddock to get through a game.  SWR let him fly and see how long it lasts, may not be long but Varland hasn't shown consistency.

Farmer, like him, but tendering him at that price tag is, well we know, hampering other moves to improve this roster

I think we've seen enough the last few years to confidently say they're at least 2-3 months away from moving on from Santana. He could go hitless for the rest of the season and likely still be on the roster in July. That's just how they operate. Whether it's them not wanting to admit that they made a bad decision, or having way too much faith in veteran player, they don't cut the cord. See Joey Gallo.

[bean5302]

3 minutes ago, FlyingFinn said:

The Farmer, Margot and Santana moves are really looking bad right now. Take that money and put it to one starting pitcher or someone like Hoskins and/or Taylor would have been far better at this point.

This is exactly the issue. Falvey constructed the roster as if there was still $20-30MM in the budget for the main pieces. The Twins are carrying a $130MM payroll this year. It's in the middle 3rd of baseball, ranking 19th.
Given the need for space
Santana was unnecessary with Miranda/Kirilloff
Polanco should have been moved earlier instead of the typical Falvey do nothing until late in the year strategy, and all the trade partners are gone so the Twins didn't need to take on $7MM of additional contracts they didn't really want/need.
Farmer was only acceptable as a sign/trade.
Margo was not necessary with Martin/Gordon/Castro
That's $22MM right there.

Can't blame the Pohlads for Falvey squandering $20MM of capacity. Also, should have moved Kepler for payroll space. That's how you manage a budget. You make tough decisions. 

 

[Dman]

It didn't seem like anyone on this board liked the Santana signing.  It looked like the FO just checked off some boxes.  Switch hitter, check. Good defense at first base, check.  Veteran, check.  He had an OK year last year, but with their apparent plan to use him a lot at 1st this year seemed a bit of a head scratcher to me.  It is early, but it doesn't look like a good decision right now.

Farmer was such jack of all trades and a solid right handed bat versus lefties it kind of made sense to keep him around for emergencies.  I thought that maybe there was room for improvement this year, but so far he hasn't looked good in the field or at the plate.  I also thought he might have enough value for them to trade him, but it looks like there were no takers and they are stuck with him now.  That 6M in salary sure would have looked better spent on a starting pitcher.

I never saw the need for Margot.  They did the Dodgers a favor there IMO.  The Dodgers didn't really want him and they managed to grab a great defensive shortstop in the deal as well. So far all three moves look like dud's, but we still need to give them some more time to see if they turn things around.  

Even Castro is off to a brutal start.  All that planning to have solid backups is just not working to this point. If things don't improve soon it is going to be a long year.

[Kenny Powers]

Yep.  Yep and Yep.  Oh well.  They can't change the past - so let's see if they can fix things going forward.  

Both Varland and Paddock looked a lot better out of the bullpen last season.  I was totally fine giving both a chance to show they can be starters this season.  But (so far), it's not giving me a lot of confidence.  If they can find even one decent starter to add to our team, they could move one of those guys back to the pen.  Suddenly our pitching would be a lot better (starting and BP)

Santana looks cooked.  I scratched my head at the time of the signing, but waited to see if they knew something I didn't.  This would have been the first move I would have made (over demoting Wallner).  Santana has been getting consistent ABs (3rdon the team) - unlike Wallner.  But the real problem is we have so many under performing bats right now - nobody is jumping out as a viable replacement.

As far tendering Farmer...you can see why that made sense based on the current situation (Lewis hurt again, Correa out).  He was solid last year.  I think he'll be fine - just a very poor start.  If everyone was healthy, re-signing him looks worse.  But we have so many injuries, I'd give the Twins a pass on this one.  He's just needs to get that bat going.  And we need some guys to get healthy.

 

[mikelink45]

Today Santana has dropped to -0.5 WAR and Margot is -0.3.  

On a team where Castro is -0.2, Farmer is -0.3 it is hard to see what the FO saw coming into the season.  And I hate to say it Nick Gordon (-0.2 WAR) has a 124 OPS+ and 3 HRS. 

I know it is still early, 10% of the season so far and things can turn around, but how much faith do we have.  I know Max Kepler with his -0.4 WAR will come back.  We have sent down Wallner and are hoping AAAA Larnach can make the next half step.  

Buxton is doing great in the field, but his ABs are not what we expect. He has 0.2 Defensive WAR and -0.1 batting. Julien is not what we expect and does not erase Luis Arraez from our memories. 

Correa and his 0.3 WAR and Lewis are the infusion we need and I hope that Miranda keeps hitting and pushes Santana out (would our FO allow this?).

[Cory Engelhardt]

I do think this wouldn't be showing it's head so fast IF Lewis and Kepler and Correa were healthy and performing, as well as Buxton and Julien performing, and Wallner, like we all expected them to so far.

Farmer, fwiw, is well liked and from all accounts has been a good mentor to Julien. I'm not as down on him. Lots of season left still. If players get healthy and he only faces lefties, I think his bat can come around for what he can provide.

Santana, ugh. I'm still befuddled that they didn't get a real power option here. I would have loved Rhys Hoskins here, and although his bat isn't showing a ton yet early on for Milwaukee either, I would have really liked a gamble like that. A trade for Pete Alonso would help the middle of the lineup a ton. I wonder if they bring up that conversation again at some point. I also get the idea that Santana historically takes good at bats and doesn't strike out (something this lineup needed more of obviously) but he just isn't right right now.

Having Brooks Lee get hurt so fast hasn't helped either. Ugh.

IF we are still saying these things in mid May, then the yelling will get much louder. Hopefully the rest of April, with getting Duran back soon and Correa, and facing the white sox and Angels a bunch, we get out of it close to a .500 record. 

[GKuehl]

CUT SANTANA AND BRING BACK DONOVAN SOLANO 

[jorgenswest]

No one does flexibility at DH like the Twins. Imagine the envy of teams that have tied up there DH spot to essentially one batter. The Twins spread out their DH duties and even Vazquez and Margot get a chance at DH. 

Baseball rules give teams the opportunity to put a poor defender with a really good bat in the line up every day. It is often a cost effective way to add an everyday bat to the middle of the line up. Justin Turner is on a one year 13 million dollar contract. jD Martinez signed late and has a one year 12 million dollar deal. Jorge Soler has an AAV of 14 million. Joc Pederson 12.5. Rhys Hoskins has a AAV of 17 million. The Twins could have spent the money differently and added any of these bats. They chose their vision of flexibility and the short sided platoon.

In reality there was more flexibility with Nelson Cruz and he was in the roster when they carried one less bat. Having so many batters you don’t trust to hit from both sides of the plate isn’t flexibility.

 

[hitterscount]

Treading water is a generous assessment.... 4-10 after winning their first two. Losing Lewis and Correa is certainly a factor in the anemic offensive output we are forced to watch (well forced to the extent if you want to watch your favorite team), however, there are seven starters remaining and bench players brought in that were thought of being capable to add some value to the team.

Now the owners think the fans are naive or blind and should support this crap they are running out daily, hardly competitive in most games... unless our starters can hold the other team to 1-2 runs we are most likely going to lose. And then you have a manager that still loves pulling starters when they are cruising or pinch hitting for the best hitters in the 4-5th inning because of his whole right left philosophy...  it is a joke and this is not what treading water looks like. 

 

[VivaBomboRivera!]

Until this team has played 15 more games, articles like this do all three of those players a disservice.

There are certainly players who are having stronger starts to the season, but fans who wanted a higher-powered roster out of the gate need to direct their voices several floors up.

[Jocko87]

36 minutes ago, Eris said:

Kyle Farmer played most of the 2022 season at SS for the Reds, turning in slightly above league average defense. He was expected to provide insurance for the infield, including as a longer term substitute at SS if needed. I think one of the reasons he was retained was due to Correa’s injury. Why he is not the primary SS now that Correa is out is the question that should be explored. 

I was leading the retain Farmer camp all offseason and I'm still in that camp. A slow start at the plate doesn't change that. I am curious about the defense, it's probably a wash between him and Castro at short and third but interesting the way they are playing it. True, every one is dealing with injuries but their unfortunate combinations of injuries are making for odd lineups. Plenty of time for the move to still pay out.

7 minutes ago, VivaBomboRivera! said:

Until this team has played 15 more games, articles like this do all three of those players a disservice.

There are certainly players who are having stronger starts to the season, but fans who wanted a higher-powered roster out of the gate need to direct their voices several floors up.

It's pessimistic peacocking time, all the doomsday predictions are suddenly enshrined as fact after a rough couple of weeks.

Also, there were no starting pitchers avaliable at 6.3m when the desicion on Farmer was made. Several months later, yes, but that's not how it works unfortunately. If we look at Farmer as the market they misjudged this year, that's pretty damn good.

[SteveLV]

All accurate.

Plus cutting payroll 20% after a good season.

Terribly disappointing approach to the season.  This really emphasized the tired "Twins are cheap" idea.

But this year, it rings very true.

[Cody Pirkl]

24 minutes ago, VivaBomboRivera! said:

Until this team has played 15 more games, articles like this do all three of those players a disservice.

There are certainly players who are having stronger starts to the season, but fans who wanted a higher-powered roster out of the gate need to direct their voices several floors up.

I disagree. 

Rotation-even if Paddack and Varland turn things around, they're going to need depth to make it through the season. We knew that before they were getting shelled every 5th day. Woods Richardson is the only somewhat meaningful depth they have. That's going to cost them at some point.

1B/DH - even if Santana plays to the level he did last season, he's not the caliber of hitter we hoped they'd add this winter. Another legit bat would have helped soften the blow of the injuries to players we knew had injury histories.

Farmer - This was always a questionable decision. Farmer himself was surprised by it. Even if he isn't a total disaster the rest of the year as he has been, that salary is an overpay for a team that cut payroll. There's literally no arguing that point. People can cite his leadership all they want. He's a spot starter vs lefties, and apparently isn't even the backup at SS anymore. They probably could have non tendered him and brought him back for $2-3m. 

I also don't believe setting a cutoff for analysis out 15 games further is any less arbitrary than doing it right now. There's no magical deadline where it's appropriate to form opinions.

 

[Cody Pirkl]

17 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

I was leading the retain Farmer camp all offseason and I'm still in that camp. A slow start at the plate doesn't change that. I am curious about the defense, it's probably a wash between him and Castro at short and third but interesting the way they are playing it. True, every one is dealing with injuries but their unfortunate combinations of injuries are making for odd lineups. Plenty of time for the move to still pay out.

It's pessimistic peacocking time, all the doomsday predictions are suddenly enshrined as fact after a rough couple of weeks.

Also, there were no starting pitchers avaliable at 6.3m when the desicion on Farmer was made. Several months later, yes, but that's not how it works unfortunately. If we look at Farmer as the market they misjudged this year, that's pretty damn good.

Based solely on the fact that Farmer isn't the backup SS, that $6.3m was an overpay without even considering his performance so far. Farmer was surprised he was brought back, and if you're a Gleeman & the Geek listener, Twins sources themselves admitted that they misjudged that decision. Is that the main issue with the team right now? No, but it's hurting them. 

[Karbo]

I'm thinking or maybe even hoping the seat Falvey sits in is getting warm. Questionable use of a reduced payroll, lack of the "pitching factory" he was supposed to bring in. And I also wonder if he's calling most of the shots with lineups or if Rocco has the freedom to do what he thinks is best. The payroll was lowered, but other teams are doing better with lower payrolls. One more thing I wonder about is the way they handle ST. I get early on they want to see some of the kids play, but the last week or so the regulars should be getting 3-4 AB's to get into a better rhythm? Just a thought but the way the team has come out to start the last couple of seasons I would think it's time to try something?

[VivaBomboRivera!]

58 minutes ago, Cody Pirkl said:

I disagree.

YMMV.

We will know a great deal more about the shape of the season and players in it when 20% of games have been played than the just under 10% that have been played so far. Let's see how what we know then measures up to what we think we see now.

Edited April 17, 2024 by VivaBomboRivera!
clarity

[gunnarthor]

It's not a good team but they'll probably still win the central. Maybe. But it's a boring and surprisingly old team. It's not fun to watch (admittedly, I haven't seen much b/c they aren't on youtube tv). Watching journeymen players struggle sucks. I'd rather watch young guys try. 

That said, there are problems - they have two legit ML starters in Lopez and Ryan. But the rest of the rotation is a question mark. I assume our strategy of throw things against the wall, see what sticks will let us find another reasonable starter but the depth is poor and the ceilings aren't that high. 

Offensively, they aren't going to post a 81 OPS+ for the season, they aren't this bad. So we should see some basic positive regression as a team and they have some potential players with pretty good upside, if they can get healthy. 

But there is a lot of season left and both Baltimore and LA are far superior teams so a bad start was a little bit likely. After this, we get Detroit and the White Sox. We might look a lot better in a week or so. 

[LastOnePicked]

If baseball makes anything clear, it's that weaknesses will quickly be exposed. If the Twins put me in RF, I'd bet money that the first three batted balls would find the hole in my glove.

Good article. Yes, we all know it's "early," but the offseason missteps are digging an early hole. This team seems old and slow and unable to keep up unless the other team gifts them a W.

[Kenny Powers]

58 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

Today Santana has dropped to -0.5 WAR and Margot is -0.3.  

On a team where Castro is -0.2, Farmer is -0.3 it is hard to see what the FO saw coming into the season.  And I hate to say it Nick Gordon (-0.2 WAR) has a 124 OPS+ and 3 HRS. 

I know it is still early, 10% of the season so far and things can turn around, but how much faith do we have.  I know Max Kepler with his -0.4 WAR will come back.  We have sent down Wallner and are hoping AAAA Larnach can make the next half step.  

Buxton is doing great in the field, but his ABs are not what we expect. He has 0.2 Defensive WAR and -0.1 batting. Julien is not what we expect and does not erase Luis Arraez from our memories. 

Correa and his 0.3 WAR and Lewis are the infusion we need and I hope that Miranda keeps hitting and pushes Santana out (would our FO allow this?).

Good stuff.  For whatever reason, I just happened to look at the stats from an "old school" perspective this morning.  I was shocked to see the following batting averages:

.208 Buxton

.189 Julien

.189 Margot

.135 Santana

.133 Vazquez

.111 Castro

.080 Wallner

.071 Farmer

.050 Kepler

 

I realize the new standard is OPS over AVE.  But man...that's ugly.  I think the boys need to spend some extra time in the batting cages 😆

 

 

 

[Woof Bronzer]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

Can't blame the Pohlads for Falvey squandering $20MM of capacity. Also, should have moved Kepler for payroll space. That's how you manage a budget. You make tough decisions. 

 

Plenty of blame to go around - I'm getting strong "Total System Failure" vibes about this season.  

[Cory Engelhardt]

1 hour ago, GKuehl said:

CUT SANTANA AND BRING BACK DONOVAN SOLANO 

He just signed a minor league deal with San Diego yesterday.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, umterp23 said:

The Santana move is probably the easiest move to rectify.  You wrote:  With the injury situation, the Twins have no choice but to write his name into the lineup every day.  I would disagree, you release him, trade him regardless perceived injury situation.  We have DH covered, we have 1st base covered, Santana offers nothing else defensively and is offensive as a hitter.  Thank him for his time.  AK, Julien, Miranda are your options and that is plenty good vs penciling in Santana.

Farmer, like him, but tendering him at that price tag is, well we know, hampering other moves to improve this roster

1 hour ago, Dman said:

It didn't seem like anyone on this board liked the Santana signing.  It looked like the FO just checked off some boxes.  Switch hitter, check. Good defense at first base, check.  Veteran, check.  He had an OK year last year, but with their apparent plan to use him a lot at 1st this year seemed a bit of a head scratcher to me.  It is early, but it doesn't look like a good decision right now.

Farmer was such jack of all trades and a solid right handed bat versus lefties it kind of made sense to keep him around for emergencies.  I thought that maybe there was room for improvement this year, but so far he hasn't looked good in the field or at the plate.  I also thought he might have enough value for them to trade him, but it looks like there were no takers and they are stuck with him now.  That 6M in salary sure would have looked better spent on a starting pitcher.

Signing Brandon Belt and releasing Santana is another option. 

They probably could have non-tendered Farmer and signed him for less ($3-4M) but not that much less. You're not getting a good starting pitcher for $6M. At that price the pitcher will be bad or injured or both. To get a good starting pitcher they needed to commit $50-100M.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

1 hour ago, Woof Bronzer said:

Good piece but I think fans are going to have to firmly push back on the injury scapegoat that the Twins are inevitably going to trot out.  Let's not fall for it.  Just about every team is dealing with a huge injury or 2 (Bieber's season ending injury is much more impactful to the AL Central race just to name one.  Strider, Cole, etc.)  And the Twins know full well that injuries happen in waves with this team.  They saw last year how many starters it takes to get through a season - then actively decided to thin out the depth of the rotation.  That decision is hurting the team as much as any other.  

This.  100% this.
Rolling with Varland and Paddack without any reliable depth was highly questionable at the start of the season and looks disastrous now.
The Santana signing wasn't terrible at the time, but is now looking to be a failure.
The same statement can be said with the Farmer pickup...

Correa, Kiriloff, and Jeffers have played to expectations, everyone else has been bad to brutal, with no reliable help in the wings.

The writing is on the wall.  They are already 5.5 games back with no reason to believe the ship will right itself.  Those 85-87 wins everybody was expecting at the beginning of the year?  75 wins would be a godsend at this point...