What if Matt Wallner is Just That Good?

[Cody Pirkl]

Matt Wallner had a fantastic rookie season, but there are plenty of question marks. It’s safe to expect his numbers to come down to Earth a bit, but what if we see the 2023 version of him again in 2024?

Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson, USA Today

Matt Wallner’s 2023 got a hot start in an offense-heavy environment in St. Paul, where his production was 33% above league average by wRC+. Building on that, he finished his rookie season with a .249/.370/.507 slash line, good for 44% above league average. There’s a chance the contact problems drag him down; that risk is obvious. But if Wallner can repeat, the Twins lineup is in a fantastic spot.

The Twins' lineup should be comfortably good. Projections have them around the upper third in baseball for Offensive Wins Above Replacement. It places them at the top of the AL Central in offense, requiring the pitching staff to simply hold up their end of the bargain. This is all baking in a .234/.336/.427 projection for Wallner from ZiPS, which would make him more of a capable hitter than a genuinely great one.

Projections have the Twins accumulating just 1.9 wins from their left fielders, which is good for 19th in baseball. Wallner’s projections give him 1.5 Wins in 441 plate appearances. If he could come anywhere near his 2023 pace of 1.9 Wins in 254 plate appearances, instead, the Twins' left field position would be one of the top five to 10 in all of baseball. If the pitching can carry over from 2023, they’d catapult from a comfortable playoff bet to competing for a first-round bye.

The Twins lost a great left-handed hitter in Jorge Polanco, who posted an .823 OPS from the left side. Joey Gallo’s .749 OPS against right-handed pitching was also surprisingly solid. The team is counting on Max Kepler to continue his production from the second half of 2023. They need Alex Kirilloff to take another step. What if Carlos Santana takes another step back from his .724 OPS against righties? If Wallner’s bat is as potent as it looked in 2023, these questions don’t carry the same weight.

What the Twins saw in 2023 from the trio of Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien, and Wallner was downright incredible. Julien’s .839 OPS was the lowest of the trio, but the consensus opinion is that his elite eye at the plate makes him a pretty safe bet to continue hitting. Lewis has become a cornerstone; there’s no reason to start doubting him now. If Wallner can remain some version of his 2023 self to complete this trio of young sluggers, the Twins' lineup is set for years to come. 

Time will tell whether Wallner can continue to adapt back repeatedly against MLB pitching, as he worked through difficulty with that at times in 2023. If he can continue to flex his plate discipline and elite power, though, he would be adding a lot to an already solid Twins lineup.

It seems too good to be true, that a Forest Lake native with Paul Bunyan-sized power would pan out to such an extent. It might not be, though. What if Matt Wallner is the player we saw in 2023? What if he’s just that good?

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[Trov]

If he is what he did last year, then he will be good but not great. Most likely eventually looking to settle into DH roll.  He has great arm in the OF, but not good range overall. He will need to learn to hit some against lefties, else he will be only a platoon guy as he was auto out against lefties. His OBP was .196 against lefties, 

He crushed righties, and if he can continue to do that, then those are MVP type numbers against them, so if he can even be average against lefties he will be huge for us. 

[CRF]

Can't wait to find out. I'm sure there will be some adjustments that he'll have to make, because pitchers will know what his weaknesses are. It'll be up to him to adjust to their adjustments. I sure hope he's for real and builds on last years success. 

[DJL44]

I think his bat definitely could be that good and he still has room to improve his fielding with more reps.

[Karbo]

46 minutes ago, Trov said:

If he is what he did last year, then he will be good but not great. Most likely eventually looking to settle into DH roll.  He has great arm in the OF, but not good range overall. He will need to learn to hit some against lefties, else he will be only a platoon guy as he was auto out against lefties. His OBP was .196 against lefties, 

He crushed righties, and if he can continue to do that, then those are MVP type numbers against them, so if he can even be average against lefties he will be huge for us. 

Randy Bush had a pretty good run playing almost exclusively against righties.

[Karbo]

All 3 of those rookies will need to make adjustments as the league adjusts to them. I have a lot of confidence in Lewis due to his pedigree and athleticism, Julian has such a good eye that he seems to have a good chance to improve, Wallner has a lot of swing and miss but when he connects watch out. I can see Wallner having some problems but time will tell how he does with adjusting. They will also have Jenkins coming along and he looks like the real deal so far.

[jmlease1]

1 hour ago, Trov said:

If he is what he did last year, then he will be good but not great. Most likely eventually looking to settle into DH roll.  He has great arm in the OF, but not good range overall. He will need to learn to hit some against lefties, else he will be only a platoon guy as he was auto out against lefties. His OBP was .196 against lefties, 

He crushed righties, and if he can continue to do that, then those are MVP type numbers against them, so if he can even be average against lefties he will be huge for us. 

If he repeats last year, he's a borderline all-star. His glove would play up a little better in RF over LF (less room to cover and the arm matters more) but he's not bad out there, even if he looks a little awkward at times. He's faster than people realize, it just takes him a bit to get going. i could see his numbers improving this season as he gets more comfortable playing at Target Field and just knowing better how balls play off the bat there.

He's not going to be great against LHP pitching, but he's probably better than last season might have suggested: hard to really judge when a guy only gets 46 PAs against them last season. And since he's likely to be the first choice to get platooned for Margot if Buxton is healthy, his exposure will be fairly limited again. Which will continue to make it harder to know exactly how well (or less bad) he really is against LHP but also limits any harm he could cause by facing them.

It will be interesting to see if pitchers can exploit his lack of contact; I don't see them having substantially more success in making him chase pitches. His plate discipline is strong and he maintained it last season even during some tougher stretches at the plate where the Ks were really piling up and finished the season very strong.

[roger]

What if Matt Wallner is just that good?  But what if he isn't, Cody?

If I were a betting man, I would put my money on the not that good slot.  And part of my concern is his defense.  Yes, he has a cannon for an arm.  And maybe I am inclined to criticize because he was flat out brutal during his first few games with the Twins when he misplayed balls a high school outfielder shouldn't miss.  Yes, he got better as the season wore on, but he didn't improve that much. 

As for his bat, I expect some of you will have the numbers but I thought he was not very good the last week or two and in the playoffs.  I expect that is more of what we will see this year, which is why we are beginning to hear that Rocco has been thinking about getting Kirilloff some time in the outfield.  Wouldn't surprise me if the final spot on the 26-man comes down to Miranda versus Wallner with AK spending much more time out on the grass if it is Jose.  

[Mike Sixel]

I'm guessing around tenth best hitting LF this year. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

18 minutes ago, roger said:

What if Matt Wallner is just that good?  But what if he isn't, Cody?

If I were a betting man, I would put my money on the not that good slot.  And part of my concern is his defense.  Yes, he has a cannon for an arm.  And maybe I am inclined to criticize because he was flat out brutal during his first few games with the Twins when he misplayed balls a high school outfielder shouldn't miss.  Yes, he got better as the season wore on, but he didn't improve that much. 

As for his bat, I expect some of you will have the numbers but I thought he was not very good the last week or two and in the playoffs.  I expect that is more of what we will see this year, which is why we are beginning to hear that Rocco has been thinking about getting Kirilloff some time in the outfield.  Wouldn't surprise me if the final spot on the 26-man comes down to Miranda versus Wallner with AK spending much more time out on the grass if it is Jose.  

So the last week or two of the season and the playoffs is the forward determiner for his career?  His partial season is already a fairly small sample size but limiting it to a couple of weeks seems a little over the top.  I don’t think that Wallner is going to be Babe Ruth, but he certainly has looked solid so far.  There are going to be growing pains, not to mention a little nervousness at his initial call up. (If the Twins called me up, aside from proof they don’t want to win, I would be so nervous that I probably couldn’t even put my glove or shoes on properly.). His defense isn’t as good as a Buxton, Taylor, or Gallo.  That describes most of the league’s starting outfielders.  He’s not a butcher out there. 

[Brandon]

His power is legit.  I expect 25-35 HRs out of him with 550 ABs this season.  The question is his ability to get on base.  Can he continue to get hit at his current pace of 26 times per 162 games?  That plus the projected 59 walks per 162 games and you can see the HBP is a big part of the added OBP. So if he only gets hit 5 times then I think we will see a .040 drop in his OBP.  Going from .370 to .330 is a big Jim down and that is with no other regression.  But for some players getting hit is part of their game.  Biggio is a player that comes to mind.  He had 6 seasons of over 20 HBP.  Other than that as long as Wallner can keep his batting average over .220 he will be successful same as Gallo would have been.  

[Muppet]

I'm hopeful but skeptical. Wallner might be a sophomore slump candidate. One thing I notice on his stat sheet is that he faced a lot of pretty bad teams. While the Twins have to beat the bad teams too, I'd still like to see a more ABs against teams that are better than AAAA.  He DID dominate in his 9 PAs against the Blue Jays though. 

[Craig Arko]

I expect Wallner to do well, and if he has a glitch, then I’d look for Larnach to step up.

[chpettit19]

If Wallner is that good this offense can be really, really good. Of guys with 250+ PAs (he had 254) he was the 6th best OFer by wRC+. Behind guys named Judge, Acuna, Alvarez, Betts, and Soto. Ahead of guys like Tucker, Trout, Carroll and Rodriguez. If Wallner puts up those numbers for an entire season he isn't a borderline All Star, he's a top level All Star. 

[Riverbrian]

He has certainly earned the right to continue on. 

Let's do some useless projections by increasing his sample size from 213 At Bats to 502 (Minimum AB's for Batting Title Qualifcation).

With 502 AB's repeating his numbers at 213... He would have hit 33 Home Runs last year.

That would have tied him for 16th in the league. Tied with Albies, Devers, JD Martinez, Seager and Walker.

Albies, Devers and Walker all had over 580 AB's to reach 33 dingers. 

There were 20 batters who hit 33 or more home runs last year. Out of those 20 batters... 11 of them (Schwarber, Alonso, Adolis Garcia, Robert, Riley, Muncy, Soler, Burger, Albies, Devers, and Walker) all had lower OPS. 

The only reason to project his numbers is to illustrate how good his numbers were and the company they keep if he continued at that pace.  Of course you can't project like that because baseball is peaks and valleys. 

He has certainly earned the right to continue on his journey. I've said that Wallner was a better version of Gallo than Gallo was. Going into 2024 there is no guarantee Wallner will be what he was last year or that he goes into an all or nothing tank like Gallo did in 2023. Actually also 2022 and 2021 but who's counting with Gallo.  

The article asks what if Matt Wallner is just that good.

Pete Alonso has only eclipsed .877 OPS one time and that was his rookie year.

If Wallner is just that good. #38 will be placed on the target field wall next to Minnesotans like Hrbek, Mauer and Tom Kelly.    

[bean5302]

3 hours ago, Trov said:

If he is what he did last year, then he will be good but not great. Most likely eventually looking to settle into DH roll.  He has great arm in the OF, but not good range overall. He will need to learn to hit some against lefties, else he will be only a platoon guy as he was auto out against lefties. His OBP was .196 against lefties, 

He crushed righties, and if he can continue to do that, then those are MVP type numbers against them, so if he can even be average against lefties he will be huge for us. 

Wallner was on pace for 4 WAR in a full season last year, owning a wRC+ of 144. There were 11 hitters in MLB at 400 PA or more with a better wRC+ than Wallner, and while there's a lot of swing and miss in his game, there's a lot of stuff to back up his performance.

From something I wrote up a couple months ago.

wOBA = .377 vs. xwOBA = .376
Max Exit Velocity, he's top 3% in MLB, the 70+ power is real.

His O-swing rate is well above average.

His O-contact rate is well above average.

He's top 20% in MLB walk rate. It's not like he swings wildly at junk all the time.

It results in his overall contact and swinging strike rate being right in line with some pretty good players like Bryce Harper, J.D. Martinez, and Fernando Tatis.

He was basically Bryce Harper at the plate last year (wRC+ 142 Harper, 144 Wallner), and Wallner's 2022-2023 MiLB splits showed he crushed lefties. Not sure why he wasn't given regular plate appearances against them at the MLB level, but it'd be good to see him prove those performances.

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, Brandon said:

His power is legit.  I expect 25-35 HRs out of him with 550 ABs this season.  The question is his ability to get on base.  Can he continue to get hit at his current pace of 26 times per 162 games?  That plus the projected 59 walks per 162 games and you can see the HBP is a big part of the added OBP. So if he only gets hit 5 times then I think we will see a .040 drop in his OBP.  Going from .370 to .330 is a big Jim down and that is with no other regression.  But for some players getting hit is part of their game.  Biggio is a player that comes to mind.  He had 6 seasons of over 20 HBP.  Other than that as long as Wallner can keep his batting average over .220 he will be successful same as Gallo would have been.  

I dont get what you mean by "successful same as Gallo would have been".

[Brandon]

33 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

I dont get what you mean by "successful same as Gallo would have been".

Gallo would have been a successful hitter with us if he could get his average in the .220 + range.  His power and walks were good.  It was his strike outs and below .200 average that made him ineffective.  The strikeouts were more livable with the higher batting average.  See his past results he was good with a .220 average and bad when below it.

[HerbieFan]

I've lived in Minnesota all 56 years of my life.  Been a die hard Minnesota sports fan.  It really is amazing how we just expect the worst isn't it??  And I say that with a chuckle.  

Here's hoping Matt Wallner just is that good.  25-30 HR, .800+ OPS, etc..!!!!!!

[Fatbat]

He is that good. and he could end up being great when he gets to RF next year. Its really awesome to see the youth movement! 

[JD-TWINS]

3 hours ago, roger said:

What if Matt Wallner is just that good?  But what if he isn't, Cody?

If I were a betting man, I would put my money on the not that good slot.  And part of my concern is his defense.  Yes, he has a cannon for an arm.  And maybe I am inclined to criticize because he was flat out brutal during his first few games with the Twins when he misplayed balls a high school outfielder shouldn't miss.  Yes, he got better as the season wore on, but he didn't improve that much. 

As for his bat, I expect some of you will have the numbers but I thought he was not very good the last week or two and in the playoffs.  I expect that is more of what we will see this year, which is why we are beginning to hear that Rocco has been thinking about getting Kirilloff some time in the outfield.  Wouldn't surprise me if the final spot on the 26-man comes down to Miranda versus Wallner with AK spending much more time out on the grass if it is Jose.  

Seriously, no Wallner? …….Miranda???

The guy had a .370 OBP & a .507 Slg%……these aren’t deep dive stats. He’s a corner OF here for next 5 years.

If he regresses after his ROOKIE year it’s understandable. But if he’s within 10% of the stats shown here, he’s very solid & “possibly” a star in the making.

[Linus]

I know it’s not what we like to hear as fans but TK had it right. You don’t know what you have until they have 1000-1500 at bats. The spectrum of possible results for Wallner is really wide - literally all star to bust and everything in between. I will predict that if he gets regular playing time in right fielder he will be a more than adequate fielder. 

[DocBauer]

Not going to say he's a finished product yet. Not saying he won't hit some speed bumps. Not saying he doesn't have to continue to work and adapt like anyone.

But he's adapted and grown and performed at every single level. The only time in his 4 milb seasons he e er had a OPS below. 800 was 12 games in 2019 where he was at .794.

Career milb quad slash:

.274/ .387/ .511/ .898

Now read those numbers again.

The .274 AVG is good, even really good for a power hitter, but isn't extraordinary. But look at those other 3 numbers? Drop each 40 points and you STILL have a very good and very dangerous hitter. So unless everything he's done to this point, including his impressive ML time, is some kind of illusion, he should at least be good, if not really good.

Defensively he still needs work, but I saw a lot if improvement last year. He's a good athlete who runs well once he gets going. His issues have usually been, to my eye, bad reads and bad routes. Continued experience and work can make those things  better. He doesn't have to be Kepler good in RF...his future spot...just solid. That arm of his is a weapon and will offset some of his limitations. 

[Jocko87]

1 hour ago, HerbieFan said:

I've lived in Minnesota all 56 years of my life.  Been a die hard Minnesota sports fan.  It really is amazing how we just expect the worst isn't it??  And I say that with a chuckle.  

Here's hoping Matt Wallner just is that good.  25-30 HR, .800+ OPS, etc..!!!!!!

We can't just have nice things, can we?

He's going to have adjustments and periods where he looks a bit lost, that's a given.  That he's always adjusted well and is starting from a very high level bodes very well.  Top ten left fielder is certainly not out of the question.

[Heiny]

If I was going to predict Walners #s they would be good #s due to historical performance. But I generally like to let the players play and let them show their own worth.  To this point I believe he has earned a starting spot in LF.  And until he is beaten out by someone else or traded I'm not worried about his #s.  But I guess we have to talk about something in the winter, huh?

[High heat]

Wallner might be that good.  He looks to have a plan at the plate and listening to him talk he seems very self aware and aware of how pitchers want to attack him.  
 

Depending on Buxton health atleast early in the year Wallner will likely face RHP 90+ percent of the time and get pinch hit and run for late in games with Margot and spell by him against LH SP. 

 

As far as Wallners defense have I seen something different?  I thought he looked ok in LF especially not playing there much.  An offseason to prepare and ST to get used to LF I think he will be decent.  
 

A healthy season at the pace he played last year puts him close to a 40HR guy from the bottom of the order.   WOW!!

[Rosterman]

AA and Major Leagues are two different arenas. Happily Spirng Training happens. Hope he gets to play more often against the major league pitchers. And have that coach carefully watching how he swings and what pitches he needs to lay-off of.

[HerbieFan]

7 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

We can't just have nice things, can we?

He's going to have adjustments and periods where he looks a bit lost, that's a given.  That he's always adjusted well and is starting from a very high level bodes very well.  Top ten left fielder is certainly not out of the question.

100%...wish he was a little better defender beyond the Howitzer of an arm.  I really do think his bat and (more importantly) his approach will play.  I really don't think OPS of .780+ with 25+ HR is out of the questions.  Plus, with this lineup, he can hit in the lower half where he won't have too much pressure.  

[Patzky]

Anyone else alarmed by the horrible spring he is having at the plate this far? Not a peep..

[jmlease1]

1 hour ago, Patzky said:

Anyone else alarmed by the horrible spring he is having at the plate this far? Not a peep..

it's spring training. really hard to get a good read out of that; we've seen guys destroy the ball who couldn't get a hit later. we've seen guys cold as ice have a fine season. Always rather have a good spring training than a bad one, but I've stopped getting excited about numbers and just hope for health.