What if Matt Wallner is Just That Good?

If he is what he did last year, then he will be good but not great. Most likely eventually looking to settle into DH roll.  He has great arm in the OF, but not good range overall. He will need to learn to hit some against lefties, else he will be only a platoon guy as he was auto out against lefties. His OBP was .196 against lefties, 

He crushed righties, and if he can continue to do that, then those are MVP type numbers against them, so if he can even be average against lefties he will be huge for us. 

Can't wait to find out. I'm sure there will be some adjustments that he'll have to make, because pitchers will know what his weaknesses are. It'll be up to him to adjust to their adjustments. I sure hope he's for real and builds on last years success. 

I think his bat definitely could be that good and he still has room to improve his fielding with more reps.

1 hour ago, Trov said:

If he is what he did last year, then he will be good but not great. Most likely eventually looking to settle into DH roll.  He has great arm in the OF, but not good range overall. He will need to learn to hit some against lefties, else he will be only a platoon guy as he was auto out against lefties. His OBP was .196 against lefties, 

He crushed righties, and if he can continue to do that, then those are MVP type numbers against them, so if he can even be average against lefties he will be huge for us. 

If he repeats last year, he's a borderline all-star. His glove would play up a little better in RF over LF (less room to cover and the arm matters more) but he's not bad out there, even if he looks a little awkward at times. He's faster than people realize, it just takes him a bit to get going. i could see his numbers improving this season as he gets more comfortable playing at Target Field and just knowing better how balls play off the bat there.

He's not going to be great against LHP pitching, but he's probably better than last season might have suggested: hard to really judge when a guy only gets 46 PAs against them last season. And since he's likely to be the first choice to get platooned for Margot if Buxton is healthy, his exposure will be fairly limited again. Which will continue to make it harder to know exactly how well (or less bad) he really is against LHP but also limits any harm he could cause by facing them.

It will be interesting to see if pitchers can exploit his lack of contact; I don't see them having substantially more success in making him chase pitches. His plate discipline is strong and he maintained it last season even during some tougher stretches at the plate where the Ks were really piling up and finished the season very strong.

What if Matt Wallner is just that good?  But what if he isn't, Cody?

If I were a betting man, I would put my money on the not that good slot.  And part of my concern is his defense.  Yes, he has a cannon for an arm.  And maybe I am inclined to criticize because he was flat out brutal during his first few games with the Twins when he misplayed balls a high school outfielder shouldn't miss.  Yes, he got better as the season wore on, but he didn't improve that much. 

As for his bat, I expect some of you will have the numbers but I thought he was not very good the last week or two and in the playoffs.  I expect that is more of what we will see this year, which is why we are beginning to hear that Rocco has been thinking about getting Kirilloff some time in the outfield.  Wouldn't surprise me if the final spot on the 26-man comes down to Miranda versus Wallner with AK spending much more time out on the grass if it is Jose.  

His power is legit.  I expect 25-35 HRs out of him with 550 ABs this season.  The question is his ability to get on base.  Can he continue to get hit at his current pace of 26 times per 162 games?  That plus the projected 59 walks per 162 games and you can see the HBP is a big part of the added OBP. So if he only gets hit 5 times then I think we will see a .040 drop in his OBP.  Going from .370 to .330 is a big Jim down and that is with no other regression.  But for some players getting hit is part of their game.  Biggio is a player that comes to mind.  He had 6 seasons of over 20 HBP.  Other than that as long as Wallner can keep his batting average over .220 he will be successful same as Gallo would have been.  

I'm hopeful but skeptical. Wallner might be a sophomore slump candidate. One thing I notice on his stat sheet is that he faced a lot of pretty bad teams. While the Twins have to beat the bad teams too, I'd still like to see a more ABs against teams that are better than AAAA.  He DID dominate in his 9 PAs against the Blue Jays though. 

33 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

I dont get what you mean by "successful same as Gallo would have been".

Gallo would have been a successful hitter with us if he could get his average in the .220 + range.  His power and walks were good.  It was his strike outs and below .200 average that made him ineffective.  The strikeouts were more livable with the higher batting average.  See his past results he was good with a .220 average and bad when below it.

I've lived in Minnesota all 56 years of my life.  Been a die hard Minnesota sports fan.  It really is amazing how we just expect the worst isn't it??  And I say that with a chuckle.  

Here's hoping Matt Wallner just is that good.  25-30 HR, .800+ OPS, etc..!!!!!!

He is that good. and he could end up being great when he gets to RF next year. Its really awesome to see the youth movement! 

I know it’s not what we like to hear as fans but TK had it right. You don’t know what you have until they have 1000-1500 at bats. The spectrum of possible results for Wallner is really wide - literally all star to bust and everything in between. I will predict that if he gets regular playing time in right fielder he will be a more than adequate fielder. 

If I was going to predict Walners #s they would be good #s due to historical performance. But I generally like to let the players play and let them show their own worth.  To this point I believe he has earned a starting spot in LF.  And until he is beaten out by someone else or traded I'm not worried about his #s.  But I guess we have to talk about something in the winter, huh?

Wallner might be that good.  He looks to have a plan at the plate and listening to him talk he seems very self aware and aware of how pitchers want to attack him.  
 

Depending on Buxton health atleast early in the year Wallner will likely face RHP 90+ percent of the time and get pinch hit and run for late in games with Margot and spell by him against LH SP. 

As far as Wallners defense have I seen something different?  I thought he looked ok in LF especially not playing there much.  An offseason to prepare and ST to get used to LF I think he will be decent.  
 

A healthy season at the pace he played last year puts him close to a 40HR guy from the bottom of the order.   WOW!!

AA and Major Leagues are two different arenas. Happily Spirng Training happens. Hope he gets to play more often against the major league pitchers. And have that coach carefully watching how he swings and what pitches he needs to lay-off of.

7 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

We can't just have nice things, can we?

He's going to have adjustments and periods where he looks a bit lost, that's a given.  That he's always adjusted well and is starting from a very high level bodes very well.  Top ten left fielder is certainly not out of the question.

100%...wish he was a little better defender beyond the Howitzer of an arm.  I really do think his bat and (more importantly) his approach will play.  I really don't think OPS of .780+ with 25+ HR is out of the questions.  Plus, with this lineup, he can hit in the lower half where he won't have too much pressure.  

1 hour ago, Patzky said:

Anyone else alarmed by the horrible spring he is having at the plate this far? Not a peep..

it's spring training. really hard to get a good read out of that; we've seen guys destroy the ball who couldn't get a hit later. we've seen guys cold as ice have a fine season. Always rather have a good spring training than a bad one, but I've stopped getting excited about numbers and just hope for health.