Folding Dallas Keuchel into 6-Man Rotation Would Be Wise Choice for Twins

[Nick Nelson]

Even in a diminished state, the former Cy Young winner could play a valuable role in preserving the Twins' elite rotation for the later stages of the season. (And beyond?)

Image courtesy of Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

When the Twins signed Dallas Keuchel to a minor-league contract last month, it caught many of us off-guard. Once known as one of the best left-handed starters in the game, Keuchel had faded in recent years as his already modest velocity dropped to untenable levels. 

Last year, three different teams gave him chances. Keuchel pitched poorly for the White Sox, Diamondbacks and Rangers, finishing the season with a 9.20 ERA in 14 starts. In 2022, he posted a 5.28 ERA in 162 innings for Chicago.

Turning 35 in January and unsigned during the offseason, it appeared as though the southpaw might hang 'em up. Instead, he committed himself to a comeback, working out at the esteemed Driveline facilities in hopes of regaining a few ticks on his fastball and attracting a curious team's attention. 

That it turned out to be the Twins he attracted – or, the team that most attracted him, if had multiple suitors – is interesting. They have an amazingly strong rotation featuring stable, rock-solid, healthy options from front to back. Even after losing Tyler Mahle.

But within the scope of this high-quality quintet – now lacking contingencies, with Mahle down and Louie Varland struggling in Triple-A – we find the possible underlying driver of Keuchel's acquisition.

Minnesota's rotation has been the class of the league in the first half, but there's an elephant in the room: these pitchers are at major risk for running out of gas down the stretch. Among all Twins starters, only Pablo López threw more than 150 innings last year, at 180. 

Joe Ryan set a new professional workload high last year with 147 innings – he'd never thrown even 125 in a season before. Sonny Gray was limited to 120 innings due to multiple injured list stints, and hasn't thrown 150 in a season since 2019. (For what it's worth, both have seen their results falter somewhat in recent weeks as they've approached the 100-IP mark.)

Kenta Maeda missed all of last season while recovering from elbow surgery, after throwing 106 innings in 2021 and 67 in 2020. Bailey Ober threw only 77 innings for the Twins in a 2022 campaign tanked by injuries, and he's never surpassed 100 innings in a season as a pro.

While we should all be enjoying the epic greatness of this Twins rotation, we should also recognize its precariousness heading into uncharted waters for the stretch run. Or, more pertinently: the front office needs to recognize it. And the Keuchel signing seems like a sign that they do.

This front office, and Rocco Baldelli, are evidently keen to the idea of a six-man rotation. They opened the season with one in 2022, and assembled the personnel for one again this year by acquiring López. They instead opted to stick with five starters out of the gates, and have kept it that way mostly due to circumstance. But as workloads mount and depth options thin out, the Twins saw a need for another semi-reliable pitcher to potentially groom for that arm-preserving sixth starter role.

Enter: Dallas Keuchel.

The five current Twins starters have set an incredibly high bar with their performance that Keuchel, in his present form, has almost no hope of reaching. But the Twins aren't realistically asking for that – merely a capable arm that can give them some innings at a league average-ish level while giving the team's other starters (not to mention their beleaguered bullpen) a break. 

Minnesota is no lock to make the playoffs as is, but they have zero hope if their starters or top relievers start breaking down. Keuchel strikes me as a strategic reinforcement intended to increase the chances of key fixtures like Gray, Ober, and Jhoan Duran staying healthy and effective into September and (hopefully) October.

The question becomes: is Keuchel up to the task? The Twins cannot afford to be throwing away games with replacement-level starters, and needless to say, their offense doesn't provide much margin for error. If you're getting the 2021-22 version of Keuchel, then you might as well just give the nod to Varland and let him take the lumps.

The Twins are hoping Keuchel can prove to be a better option for this utility on multiple levels. First, performance – whereas Varland has an 8.28 ERA in three starts since returning to the Saints, Keuchel comparatively has a 0.64 ERA in three starts since coming aboard. 

There's also this, though: Varland himself is a young developing arm whose usage needs to be managed carefully. The same is even more true for Simeon Woods Richardson, another (underperforming) option in Triple-A, who might soon be in line for a move to the bullpen.

Therein lies the hidden appeal of Keuchel: He is a historically durable and resilient veteran arm whose longevity the Twins need not worry about one iota. To the extent his on-field results make it feasible, Baldelli could ride Keuchel a little bit and squeeze some innings for the benefit of his other starters and relievers. Already Keuchel has pushed to almost 90 pitches in his minor-league build-up, which seems a promising sign.

Again, this whole concept is contingent on Keuchel pitching to an acceptable level, which is perhaps a reach. That said, the Twins have reason to be heartened by some of the other success stories they've seen out of Driveline, and the southpaw's initial results for St. Paul – albeit against Triple-A hitters – are encouraging. The 11-to-8 K/BB ratio, maybe not so much, but Keuchel is keeping his pitches off the barrels of opposing hitters and that's something he made his name on. 

With an opt-out reportedly upcoming in his contract later this month, a decision point is not far off for the Twins. Surely Keuchel did not sign here with an intention of pitching at Triple-A for two months. 

If my (speculative!) suspicion is correct, and the rotation is able to keep avoiding injures, we will likely see Keuchel up in the majors as an additive piece to the rotation, ideally helping the Twins navigate the second half – including a stretch coming out of the break where they play 29 games in 31 days – without need to fret as much over the compounding workloads for the starting pitching corps that their fate depends on.

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[Nine of twelve]

It would be great if Keuchel truly can be effective in the majors, especially because he's a lefty, but I don't think it's a good idea to decrease the number of appearances for Lopez, Gray, Ryan, and Ober. Our bullpen has more room for improvement than the rotation, so if Keuchel is added to the rotation it makes more sense to me to move Maeda to the bullpen.

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

If Keuchel does join the rotation, then another interesting question that follows is how the Twins manage a 7-man bullpen. How might the roles or workloads change if they subtract one of the lower-leverage guys? Will they be more apt to rotate pitchers through the last spot or two to keep fresh arms in the pen (not that they haven't been doing a lot of that already)?

If a starter was otherwise healthy but a little gassed at some point, would this lead them to try a "tired arm" IL stint in order to skip a couple turns and temporarily return to a 5-man rotation and 8-man bullpen? Of course if a starter had an injury where he truly couldn't go, the impact of that IL placement would be minimized by having a sixth starter already on the roster, too. Interesting to consider the possibilities.

[Peter]

Bring him up!!! 

[CRF]

If he's lights out with StP, and so far he's been very good...then why not see if you can trade him? Maybe someone would be interested in getting him? Trade him for a decent RP, or even a bat? I'd explore that, before I'd stick him in our rota. Unless we have an injury to one of our starters, we don't need him.  

[saviking]

Interesting idea. 

* It would take stress off of the starters but put stress on the relievers. That said, we could always send down and bring up relievers from STP to keep them fresh but do we have the depth of good relievers. 

* Maybe either Keuchel and Maeda become swing men where they become the long reliver and spot start when the scheduling gets tight.

* Maybe one of our starters goes on IL before Kuechel's opt-out. 

But one thing is highly likely, we either bring him up before his opt out or he's probably gone., 

[Nashvilletwin]

Our best trade piece right now is Sonny. Maybe we trade him and insert Dallas for the remainder of the year.  

[mikelink45]

The BP is what I am concerned with.  Another rotation arm does nothing to address the BP inadequacy unless he is always going to go nine innings. 

[Dman]

I think the OP is spot on.  They didn't sign Keuchel for a AAA role.  He signed on because if he performed acceptably at the AAA level he was promised a role with the MLB team.  So far he has been performing and OP makes sense that giving guys more rest down the stretch could help.

That being said I still don't think I trust the new and improved Keuchel just yet and we can't afford to throw away games.  I would like to see at least three more starts before adding him to the 40 man.  If those go well then it seems like a worthy endeavor to take someone off the 40 man and put him on.

Also not sure they need to go with 6 man rotation the whole way. They could just spot start Kuechel as I think he can go up and down 6 times or so.  That might be enough to give arms a bit of a break without relying on the weakest arm every 6 days.

[chpettit19]

It's going to be really interesting to see how they manage Ober. He's already at 100 innings for only the 3rd time in his life. If they run a 5 man rotation the rest of the season they're all getting 14 more starts. I can't imagine they're letting Ober throw another 70 or 80 innings this year. 

Do they go straight 6 man rotation giving everyone an extra day's rest? Do they throw in a couple IL stints for guys and skip a couple starts? Send Ober down for 2 weeks, but don't actually pitch him? Will be interesting to see what they do. I'd guess they let Lopez, Ryan, and Gray go with no concerns. I think Maeda is probably in the same boat as long as he keeps performing. But I think they'll do some things to manage Ober's innings no matter how he's pitching. Keuchel could certainly be part of that plan.

[chinmusic]

These reclamation projects usually fail.

Might as well give it a shot, though.

Might be the next Oil Can Boyd (see Expos)  

[Brian Kingfield]

7 minutes ago, Dman said:

I think the OP is spot on.  They didn't sign Keuchel for a AAA role.  He signed on because if he performed acceptably at the AAA level he was promised a role with the MLB team.  So far he has been performing and OP makes sense that giving guys more rest down the stretch could help.

That being said I still don't think I trust the new and improved Keuchel just yet and we can't afford to throw away games.  I would like to see at least three more starts before adding him to the 40 man.  If those go well then it seems like a worthy endeavor to take someone off the 40 man and put him on.

Also not sure they need to go with 6 man rotation the whole way. They could just spot start Kuechel as I think he can go up and down 6 times or so.  That might be enough to give arms a bit of a break without relying on the weakest arm every 6 days.

I agree. I’m hesitant to count on him every 6 days but if we use him as needed to give guys a rest I’m all for the preventative maintenance to ensure we don’t lose one of our starting 5 to injury. 
I’m also curious about just adding him to the bullpen to add some depth. Then we wouldn’t have to be worried about limiting the pitch counts for starters and letting the bullpen take more innings. 

[nicksaviking]

Sorry, but I'm going the complete opposite direction here, I want him nowhere near this roster. His junkballs may get out some AAA hitters, but more than a spot start or two at the majors and I'll bet he'll get crushed. He never could miss bats, so he'll make the Twins suspect infield defense make all his outs for him, but on top of that, the last several years he's giving out free passes like they're going out of style. He's not good.

He's no more than Tommy Milone now, break glass in case of emergency, than DFA when you need the roster spot back the next day.

[John Belinski]

Twins do not need another starting pitcher, but do need bullpen help. Let him pitch out of bullpen to start out.

[roger]

Everyone is speculating on what the Twins will do.  What we know is that he has an opt out and if he isn't with the Twins, is it July 31?, he is either going to be with the Twins or gone come August.  Interesting question, did the Twins get an option year when they signed him?  Haven't heard, but would have been smart.

You have done a great job of listing all the questions the Twins staff is facing over the rest of the season.  Getting a proven veteran onto the staff sure helps answer some of those.  With how well he is throwing at St. Paul, cannot believe he won't be one of the answers to those questions.  Will Saturday be his last start for the Saints?  Maybe, or maybe one more.  Won't even begin to guess how he will be used with the Twins.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, CRF said:

Unless we have an injury to one of our starters, we don't need him.  

That's a big unless. A minor injury to one of the starters is nearly a guarantee.

[TwinsDr2021]

I am against a 6 man rotation, I am against him being the next starter brought up. Varland should be the guy brought up if needed.

[DJL44]

There is no reason to handle Maeda with kid gloves. These might be the last good innings in his MLB career. He's a free agent and probably someone else's problem next season. He is also unlikely to start a game in the playoffs. Use him up.

With Sonny Gray you want to manage his workload to ensure he's still effective in October. They're not out of playoff contention yet. They also want to make sure he's healthy so they can tag him with the Qualifying Offer. Still, I'd use him as much as possible.

I can pretty much guarantee that 6 man rotation will not last long. Someone will get hurt and it will become a 5 man rotation.

[USAFChief]

Lotta faith in a guy who hasn't gotten MLB hitters out for 2 years now, based on a handful of innings in St Paul and an offseason working out.

[laloesch]

I think it's a pretty big leap of faith to throw Keuchel into the rotation let alone the bullpen after such a short time in St. Paul.  His velocity is not conducive to being a lights out BP arm either at 89 mph.  I'm not convinced.

[2wins87]

I would rather see him stay as the first up rotation depth, and have that allow Varland to possibly help the bullpen this year.

I think Varland has stuff that could play up a little better as a reliever.  The only downside would possibly be making it harder for Varland to transition back to a starter role next year, but I don't think that should be a huge concern.

It sounds like Stewart and Thielbar are both fairly close to returning, but I would still trust Varland as much or more than Balazovic, Headrick, Sands or Ortegas who have recently been featured in the bullpen.

[Guest]

Can Keuchel hit?

[Karbo]

2 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

The BP is what I am concerned with.  Another rotation arm does nothing to address the BP inadequacy unless he is always going to go nine innings. 

All the pitching in the world isn't much help when you expect them to give up 1 run or less, as is happening with this horrible lineup!

[Mike Sixel]

2 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Sorry, but I'm going the complete opposite direction here, I want him nowhere near this roster. His junkballs may get out some AAA hitters, but more than a spot start or two at the majors and I'll bet he'll get crushed. He never could miss bats, so he'll make the Twins suspect infield defense make all his outs for him, but on top of that, the last several years he's giving out free passes like they're going out of style. He's not good.

He's no more than Tommy Milone now, break glass in case of emergency, than DFA when you need the roster spot back the next day.

Agreed. It is POSSIBLE he could work out of the pen, but even that seems unlikely......His stuff isn't going to get out MLB hitters....that said, if they try it, fine. Also, if they try it, it will confirm, for me, their insane belief that only old guys should be on the roster this year........and, i get not everyone agrees with me. I'm not trying to convince anyone here...

[Nick Nelson]

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

Lotta faith in a guy who hasn't gotten MLB hitters out for 2 years now, based on a handful of innings in St Paul and an offseason working out.

What about the article indicates I have a "lotta faith" in Keuchel? 

[tony&rodney]

There any number of directions to go with Keuchel and the comments have pretty much already covered them all.

Can he hit? That was a telling statement since it is the offense which has been offensive this season.

Keuchel might return something worthwhile in a trade. Teams are looking for pitching all the time.

Does he work as a the needed long relief pitcher? I'm not sure he fits in that role, but he might.

The comments cover the options. The games coming out of the break will bring an answer. The Twins have 16 games before the trade deadline (Oakland, Seattle, White Sox, Royals). Ten games are on the road. I'm guessing that a .500 record means that Sonny Gray and/or Kenta Maeda are traded and possibly others as well, which opens a spot for Keuchel. If the Twins go 12-4, then Keuchel only gets an opportunity for the long relief job unless there is an injury or trade. The six person starting staff just weakens the team. The starting pitchers have been outstanding but the pitches per outing are under control and only Gray has faced multiple games of stressed innings (too many guys on base), and he has come through mostly in great shape. I'm still very optimistic about the pitching, including Louie Varland and Balazovic. The offense remains the problem.

The stretch from now until July 31 will determine what role Keuchel plays for the Minnesota Twins.

[chinmusic]

50 minutes ago, Karbo said:

All the pitching in the world isn't much help when you expect them to give up 1 run or less, as is happening with this horrible lineup!

You said it!

[ashbury]

6-man rotations are a bad idea for multiple reasons.  If Keuchel isn't at least the 5th best starting option, don't start him.  And I don't think he is.

[joefish]

We can't hit 'em. Might as well prevent him from shutting us down. Run him out there in a T'ins uniform.

Lefties are a commodity.

[DJL44]

55 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

The Twins have 16 games before the trade deadline (Oakland, Seattle, White Sox, Royals). Ten games are on the road. I'm guessing that a .500 record means that Sonny Gray and/or Kenta Maeda are traded and possibly others as well, which opens a spot for Keuchel.

I don't see them selling if they're at a .500 record. A .500 record probably wins this division. If they go 4-12 over the next 16 games then they probably sell. I think 7-9 is their worst 16 game stretch this whole season.