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When the Twins signed Dallas Keuchel to a minor-league contract last month, it caught many of us off-guard. Once known as one of the best left-handed starters in the game, Keuchel had faded in recent years as his already modest velocity dropped to untenable levels.
Last year, three different teams gave him chances. Keuchel pitched poorly for the White Sox, Diamondbacks and Rangers, finishing the season with a 9.20 ERA in 14 starts. In 2022, he posted a 5.28 ERA in 162 innings for Chicago.
Turning 35 in January and unsigned during the offseason, it appeared as though the southpaw might hang 'em up. Instead, he committed himself to a comeback, working out at the esteemed Driveline facilities in hopes of regaining a few ticks on his fastball and attracting a curious team's attention.
That it turned out to be the Twins he attracted – or, the team that most attracted him, if had multiple suitors – is interesting. They have an amazingly strong rotation featuring stable, rock-solid, healthy options from front to back. Even after losing Tyler Mahle.
But within the scope of this high-quality quintet – now lacking contingencies, with Mahle down and Louie Varland struggling in Triple-A – we find the possible underlying driver of Keuchel's acquisition.
Minnesota's rotation has been the class of the league in the first half, but there's an elephant in the room: these pitchers are at major risk for running out of gas down the stretch. Among all Twins starters, only Pablo López threw more than 150 innings last year, at 180.
Joe Ryan set a new professional workload high last year with 147 innings – he'd never thrown even 125 in a season before. Sonny Gray was limited to 120 innings due to multiple injured list stints, and hasn't thrown 150 in a season since 2019. (For what it's worth, both have seen their results falter somewhat in recent weeks as they've approached the 100-IP mark.)
Kenta Maeda missed all of last season while recovering from elbow surgery, after throwing 106 innings in 2021 and 67 in 2020. Bailey Ober threw only 77 innings for the Twins in a 2022 campaign tanked by injuries, and he's never surpassed 100 innings in a season as a pro.
While we should all be enjoying the epic greatness of this Twins rotation, we should also recognize its precariousness heading into uncharted waters for the stretch run. Or, more pertinently: the front office needs to recognize it. And the Keuchel signing seems like a sign that they do.
This front office, and Rocco Baldelli, are evidently keen to the idea of a six-man rotation. They opened the season with one in 2022, and assembled the personnel for one again this year by acquiring López. They instead opted to stick with five starters out of the gates, and have kept it that way mostly due to circumstance. But as workloads mount and depth options thin out, the Twins saw a need for another semi-reliable pitcher to potentially groom for that arm-preserving sixth starter role.
Enter: Dallas Keuchel.
The five current Twins starters have set an incredibly high bar with their performance that Keuchel, in his present form, has almost no hope of reaching. But the Twins aren't realistically asking for that – merely a capable arm that can give them some innings at a league average-ish level while giving the team's other starters (not to mention their beleaguered bullpen) a break.
Minnesota is no lock to make the playoffs as is, but they have zero hope if their starters or top relievers start breaking down. Keuchel strikes me as a strategic reinforcement intended to increase the chances of key fixtures like Gray, Ober, and Jhoan Duran staying healthy and effective into September and (hopefully) October.
The question becomes: is Keuchel up to the task? The Twins cannot afford to be throwing away games with replacement-level starters, and needless to say, their offense doesn't provide much margin for error. If you're getting the 2021-22 version of Keuchel, then you might as well just give the nod to Varland and let him take the lumps.
The Twins are hoping Keuchel can prove to be a better option for this utility on multiple levels. First, performance – whereas Varland has an 8.28 ERA in three starts since returning to the Saints, Keuchel comparatively has a 0.64 ERA in three starts since coming aboard.
There's also this, though: Varland himself is a young developing arm whose usage needs to be managed carefully. The same is even more true for Simeon Woods Richardson, another (underperforming) option in Triple-A, who might soon be in line for a move to the bullpen.
Therein lies the hidden appeal of Keuchel: He is a historically durable and resilient veteran arm whose longevity the Twins need not worry about one iota. To the extent his on-field results make it feasible, Baldelli could ride Keuchel a little bit and squeeze some innings for the benefit of his other starters and relievers. Already Keuchel has pushed to almost 90 pitches in his minor-league build-up, which seems a promising sign.
Again, this whole concept is contingent on Keuchel pitching to an acceptable level, which is perhaps a reach. That said, the Twins have reason to be heartened by some of the other success stories they've seen out of Driveline, and the southpaw's initial results for St. Paul – albeit against Triple-A hitters – are encouraging. The 11-to-8 K/BB ratio, maybe not so much, but Keuchel is keeping his pitches off the barrels of opposing hitters and that's something he made his name on.
With an opt-out reportedly upcoming in his contract later this month, a decision point is not far off for the Twins. Surely Keuchel did not sign here with an intention of pitching at Triple-A for two months.
If my (speculative!) suspicion is correct, and the rotation is able to keep avoiding injures, we will likely see Keuchel up in the majors as an additive piece to the rotation, ideally helping the Twins navigate the second half – including a stretch coming out of the break where they play 29 games in 31 days – without need to fret as much over the compounding workloads for the starting pitching corps that their fate depends on.
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- Cory Engelhardt, gman, nclahammer and 4 others
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